Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Alex-11]

I have figured out that when it comes to futures markets Armstrong's reversal model switches over to the next month's contracts halfway through each month, so as of Monday his reversals model has been tracking June contracts. [/quote]

I heard it is always the contract used with the highest volume.

Today (April 20th) Crude futures closed at 44.18 electing 3 Major daily bullish reversals @  42.50 — 42.62 — 44.12, as well as 1 Minor reversal @ 43.40.
Array Analysis: https://i.imgur.com/dEr5UjZ.png (still a newbie, can't embed the image sorry)

very interesting array and analysis. Thank you.
Since yesterday the composite on the top is the highest bar, according to Martin, on that day the intra-day high (or low) should have been made.  I personally noticed that sometimes the intra-day high/low is varies slightly (e.g. 1 time unit before or after the turning point), but often it is also exactly right.
From what I heard, Martin advise to look mainly  on the composite row for turning points. This is the sum of all his 72 models. Then also the directional changes and the panic cycles. I've barely saw him writing about trading cycles from the arrays.

I also thought that crude oil would go up to the 45/46 level (as Martin predicted), but I'm really surprised how fast it jumps up.

Martin also said that Oil may rally into May. So if we now already reached the 45 level, will it now go down and be back up in May?
This sounds to me like the logical conclusion to me. Maybe it even reaches the 49 target (provided by Martin) during May.

[TPTB_need_war]

Anonymint, you are trying way too hard to get Bitcoin to fit some Armstrong gold forecast when the two have no correlation...

The halving is not some insignificant event.  It dwarfs any tiny change in interest rates or other variables.  There is also the fact that Bitcoin would be seen by some as a failure if the halving was unable to produce any increase in price, so vested interests (me being one of them) will engineer it to prevent that from happening, hence why you already see a $25 price increase.  What is sustainable is unknown, and will only be known a month or two afterwards, but the price will be raised to find out.

Actually that's true. I pointed out several times in the Armstrong thread how wrong TPTB_need_war is with his Bitcoin forecasts, and that's the source of the errors: he is trying to correlate BTC with the gold model of Armstrong.

There is a very strong correlation.

Anonymint, I don't know how you can fall into the beginner trap of saying the halving is "priced in".

Obvious he is at least semi-trolling you.

How is presenting an alternative theory of the 2013 Bitcoin bubble trolling?

That all of you think it is impossible reminds me of market theory that the majority is always wrong.

So let's stay tuned for the outcome...

[Lateralus]

I heard it is always the contract used with the highest volume.

Hmm, that makes sense. Do you remember where Armstrong said this? If you can't I can just test it for myself tomorrow just by looking through Socrates and comparing it to the closings over the last few months

Today (April 20th) Crude futures closed at 44.18 electing 3 Major daily bullish reversals @  42.50 — 42.62 — 44.12, as well as 1 Minor reversal @ 43.40.
Array Analysis: https://i.imgur.com/dEr5UjZ.png (still a newbie, can't embed the image sorry)

very interesting array and analysis. Thank you.
Since yesterday the composite on the top is the highest bar, according to Martin, on that day the intra-day high (or low) should have been made.  I personally noticed that sometimes the intra-day high/low is varies slightly (e.g. 1 time unit before or after the turning point), but often it is also exactly right.

From what I heard, Martin advise to look mainly  on the composite row for turning points. This is the sum of all his 72 models. Then also the directional changes and the panic cycles. I've barely saw him writing about trading cycles from the arrays.

I also thought that crude oil would go up to the 45/46 level (as Martin predicted), but I'm really surprised how fast it jumps up.

Martin also said that Oil may rally into May. So if we now already reached the 45 level, will it now go down and be back up in May?
This sounds to me like the logical conclusion to me. Maybe it even reaches the 49 target (provided by Martin) during May.

Yes that I believe that is correct usage of the composite model, I think most people get confused because whether the bar is the highest or lowest is irrelevant (a high can show up on the lowest bar and a low can show up on the highest bar). The Trading Cycle model is actually the one exception to this rule, as the higher the bar is the more likely a high or low (depending on the color) is made at that time.

The Trading Cycle model is actually quite useful IMO, here is the explanation from Socrates:

"The Trading Timing Model offers a union of time and direction that enables the end-user determine when a high or low is likely to occur, but it’s not assured as cycles can be subjected to destructive interference under the superposition principle. Bars appearing in green indicate an ideal time for highs, red indicates an ideal time for lows and yellow indicates a projection for a high and a low during the same time interval. When multiple cycles converge on a particular day the bar will be larger, additionally, when two opposite cycles converge the bar will appear in yellow."

[SwedishGirl]

Very entertaining thread this is it's like reading Isaac Asimov's The Foundation all over again.

I don't see why the pricing needs to be either priced in or not. It somehow affected the price already for sure as I know a lot of people who bought BTC expecting the halving pump and are not selling in the next couple of months no matter what. On the other hand, of course it is not fully priced in, due to all the reasons that Roach stated on a number of threads.

[Alex-11]

Hmm, that makes sense. Do you remember where Armstrong said this? If you can't I can just test it for myself tomorrow just by looking through Socrates and comparing it to the closings over the last few months

A friend has asked Socrates support about Gold futures.  I assume it's the same with all energy products and metals on CME.

Yes that I believe that is correct usage of the composite model, I think most people get confused because whether the bar is the highest or lowest is irrelevant (a high can show up on the lowest bar and a low can show up on the highest bar). The Trading Cycle model is actually the one exception to this rule, as the higher the bar is the more likely a high or low (depending on the color) is made at that time.

I've already analyzed  a couple of arrays for the Trading Cycle but I could not find a somewhat reliable correlation between those bars and highs/lows. Maybe I have to look again at some additional arrays if you say they are good.

[altcoinUK]

Anonymint, you are trying way too hard to get Bitcoin to fit some Armstrong gold forecast when the two have no correlation...

The halving is not some insignificant event.  It dwarfs any tiny change in interest rates or other variables.  There is also the fact that Bitcoin would be seen by some as a failure if the halving was unable to produce any increase in price, so vested interests (me being one of them) will engineer it to prevent that from happening, hence why you already see a $25 price increase.  What is sustainable is unknown, and will only be known a month or two afterwards, but the price will be raised to find out.

Actually that's true. I pointed out several times in the Armstrong thread how wrong TPTB_need_war is with his Bitcoin forecasts, and that's the source of the errors: he is trying to correlate BTC with the gold model of Armstrong.

There is a very strong correlation.

There is some correlation, but making the projection that BTC will follow the gold price and going down with the gold price is more of a wild guess than a rational argument. Especially it is a wild guess, because it is not clear at all whether the decline of gold and Armstrong's projection will be materialized or not. The decline of gold price is very much on the table - just like the opposite is. (I am talking about mid and long term).

I fully understand what you say terms of the sovereign debt crisis and the unsustainability of the system. I totally get what Armstrong says and I subscribe to 90% of his analysis. However, you and Armstrong always forget that the central banks, the Troika and the crooks of Wall street are infinitely creative in coming up with all kind of solutions to preserve the status quo.  Armstrong could never imagine the central banks will come up with quantitative easing. Here we go, they did and bought another 5-10 perhaps even 20 years and a few elections for the establishment.
Logic dictates and history indicates Armstrong is correct and the system most likely will collapse at some stage, but there are many variables exist which could screw up and do screw up his projections from time to time.

[altcoinUK]

Please note, Armstrong latest blogs about the tangible assets indicate that crypto currencies could have the same role as property or blue-chip stocks, if and when the collapse will come.

Of course and unfortunately, that cryptocurrency won't be Bitcoin. The fucking communist, corrupt, authority respecting, order obeying, greedy Chinese crowd will either destroy BTC by then or will comply with IMF and its new world money order to introduce "security measures" in the BTC blockchain, so that tangible safe heaven will have to be some other cryptocurrency than BTC.

[altcoinUK]

RANT START

The issue is, Bitcoin is in the hand of the Chinese. It's unfortunate, but it inevitably happened and it is the reality. When there is money, and if the Chinese can overtake that process, then the greedy Chinese show up and start overtaking it. Of course they have no chance on the Wall Street. There is a strong and even more greedy competition in the Wall Street. The money is big in Wall Street and there is no place for the Chinese. However, with the (compared to Wall Street) volume wise insignificant Bitcoin they could do overtake the process.

The Chinese society and mentality pretty much determines the fail of Bitcoin. Whether it is an emperor, a complete asshole and wanker like Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping were or the current equally corrupt and low moral communist leaders, it doesn't matter - the Chinese love their leaders. They idolize and worship their leaders. The communist brainwashing propaganda worked over there. Go and challenge a Chinese and confront him, say that your leaders are corrupt and exploiting your country. 99% of the Chinese will be genuinely offended and defend their leaders to death. That's the far-east mentality. Unconditionally respect the authority even if the authority fucks them up.

When the time will come, China will comply with the requests of IMF by enforcing changes in the BTC blockchain and make it compatible with the new world money order to track down payments. Can they do it? Of course they can - the mining power is there already. Will the Chinese miners comply? Ohhh, even they will volunteer to comply in order to please their fucking communist leaders. Will that require more efficient information sharing and more intense surveillance of citizens? No problem. They will stick not only a micro-chip, but a fucking Raspberry Pi in their ass if that makes more happy their leaders and provide them with more information.

Because of the Chinese influence, Bitcoin won't be one of the safe heaven tangible assets what Armstrong talks about.

RANT OVER

[altcoinUK]

the more troubling it is.

Troubling is an understatement. As far as my concern the Chinese' influence makes Bitcoin a dead end proposition.

It is unfortunate. I love Bitcoin, the core idea and the philosophy is so great. We all thought Bitcoin can survive institutional corruption and can be immune to political agendas. The novel concept of Satoshi is a fine innovation (that's the case even if NSA created Satoshi, from the innovation viewpoint it doesn't matter), probably the finest innovation since the born of Internet. The decentralized crypto currency idea is a socially important initiative, it could have a huge impact on the economy and society. It is shame that the corrupt bolshevik Chinese system will destroy BTC. C'est la vie, an another digital currency will take over and will try to succeed.

Whichever currency will take over, must address the issues which contributed to the destruction of Bitcoin and allowed the bolshevik Chinese influence in the first place. The currency which succeed must be fully decentralized. In order to be the safe heaven, one of the tangible assets of Armstrong, it must address privacy requirements. The I2P and Tor route is not an option - both of those are under law enforcement control, so privacy must be addressed in a different domain or different layer than I2P and Tor address it. (I don't mention the Dash jokers, it's not even worth discussing if we talk about privacy.) And then, once a viable technology emerge the governments will strike and make it illegal - just like governments will make gold/silver transactions illegal - and then the game start. And then we will see whether Armstrong is correct or not regarding the reset.

[Lateralus]

(I don't mention the Dash jokers, it's not even worth discussing if we talk about privacy.)

I know what you mean, it's really too bad because I think Evan Duffield is a marketing genius. Marketing is so important because a truly decentralized and private currency will have the full power of the state against it, and only the support of the public at large will be able to fight back against the state monopoly on currency.

[TPTB_need_war]

(I don't mention the Dash jokers, it's not even worth discussing if we talk about privacy.)

I know what you mean, it's really too bad because I think Evan Duffield is a marketing genius.

You are confusing marketing with promotional hype (lies actually) to speculators. Marketing is a not just promotion, it is a much broader discipline+art. Dash has 0 mainstream users. Evan is a marketing dunce (and a fraudster). To see real product and ecosystem marketing, watch what I do over the next year with JAMBOX.

Yeah Evan is a good snake oil salesmen. They were a dime a dozen in the USA of the 1800s. That is nothing close to the skill of Software Product Marketing.

I don't want to argue that here. Bring it over the Altcoin Discussion forum where there is plenty of argumentation on all those details.

[OROBTC]

What extent do the Chinese control bitcoin mining (60%, 80%)? The more I read about the Chinese taking over mining the more troubling it is.

Below numbers are percentages of total hashing power:

AntPool: 26
F2Pool: 25
BTCC Pool: 16
BitFury: 11
BW.COM: 6
Slush: 5
KnCMiner: 4
Kano CKPool: 3
BitClub Network: 2
Telco 214: 1
Unknown: 1
Unknown: 1
Other Known: 1

https://blockchain.info/pools

+/- 73% of current mining is by Chinese pools.  There is some debate that not all the mining machines are Chinese, there may be a pretty fair amount of American or European rigs pooling.

AntPool, F2Pool, BTCC Pool and BW.COM are Chinese pools.

[TPTB_need_war]

There is a very strong correlation.

There is some correlation, but making the projection that BTC will follow the gold price and going down with the gold price is more of a wild guess than a rational argument.

Please note, Armstrong latest blogs about the tangible assets indicate that crypto currencies could have the same role as property or blue-chip stocks, if and when the collapse will come.

Which is why CCs are correlated to the coming V crash slingshot of gold and stocks.

Especially it is a wild guess, because it is not clear at all whether the decline of gold and Armstrong's projection will be materialized or not. The decline of gold price is very much on the table - just like the opposite is. (I am talking about mid and long term).

Armstrong is much more sure than he is going to admit on his blogs. Do you own a copy of his gold report? The main open question is the timing. May/June, August or Q1 2017.

I'd guess it is in the realm of 80/20% odds that gold will decline to lower than $1050.

I fully understand what you say terms of the sovereign debt crisis and the unsustainability of the system. I totally get what Armstrong says and I subscribe to 90% of his analysis. However, you and Armstrong always forget that the central banks, the Troika and the crooks of Wall street are infinitely creative in coming up with all kind of solutions to preserve the status quo.  Armstrong could never imagine the central banks will come up with quantitative easing. Here we go, they did and bought another 5-10 perhaps even 20 years and a few elections for the establishment.
Logic dictates and history indicates Armstrong is correct and the system most likely will collapse at some stage, but there are many variables exist which could screw up and do screw up his projections from time to time.

Everything they've done correlated to his timing models, so they haven't extended anything that wasn't predicted.

You seem to not understand they are now trapped. Low interest rates causes a collapse due to bankrupt retirement plans. Higher interest rates collapses the governments due to increase in interest payments on the debt which will explode the fiscal budgets and cause governments to raise taxes egregiously.

It is all coming unravelled and there is nothing that can be done to stop it.

If they print more money, they lower interest rates. There is no way to raise money other than print it or tax for it.

Checkmate.

[OROBTC]

...

Two Armstrong articles that parallel recent posts above.


Armstrong recommends "tangible assets" during a transition (I would completely agree):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/what-are-tangible-assets/

Equities (stocks) he is not crystal clear, but he likes them, government debt he does NOT.


The banksters will back $hillary vs. Trump:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-bankers-will-back-hillary-against-trump/

The banksters have been manipulating everything, and Hildabeast will not touch them.  She is corrupt to the core and extremely secrective (she has a lot to hide).

[TPTB_need_war]

There is no way to raise money other than print it or tax for it.

Checkmate.

The bolded is the path of least resistance, always taken by governments. Gold fares very well in hyper inflationary environment, what paper promises are worth is irrelevant.

That is a very oversimplistic understanding. And I don't have time to unravel your simpleton thoughts for you at this time.

I suggest reading Armstrong's blog from start to finish.

Maybe we could do this on video sometimes interactively so it would be more efficient to educate. I don't have time for writing it. Far too slow.

Edit: you are entirely wrong on hyperinflation. The history is that only revolutionary and totally broken regimes hyperinflate. The world is composed of very strong regimes and they will not lay down their power by hyperinflating. Armstrong covers this in great detail in his blogs. Required reading material for you.

[marcus_of_augustus]

chinese miners are true freedom fighters ... which of you in the west would risk your necks to run a quasi-legal operation under a communist, totalitarian regime? They chop heads off in china, the chinese miners probably have a stronger ethos for freedom than a lot of the part-timers in the west who pay lip-service to freedom and then hand fat checks to the corrupt governments and banksters while they get the shaft from them.

Bitcoin mining has gravitated to the strongest hands, just as it was designed to be ... you cant truly know freedom until you have truly known oppression.

[TPTB_need_war]

chinese miners are true freedom fighters ... which of you in the west would risk your necks to run a quasi-legal operation under a communist, totalitarian regime? They chop heads off in china, the chinese miners probably have a stronger ethos for freedom than a lot of the part-timers in the west who pay lip-service to freedom and then hand fat checks to the corrupt governments and banksters while they get the shaft from them.

Bitcoin mining has gravitated to the strongest hands, just as it was designed to be ... you cant truly know freedom until you have truly known oppression.

It may be true, but it is still not trustless decentralization.

Power corrupts absolutely and it will be no different an outcome if the power of mining is vested in too few people's hands.

[altcoinUK]

chinese miners are true freedom fighters ... which of you in the west would risk your necks to run a quasi-legal operation under a communist, totalitarian regime? They chop heads off in china, the chinese miners probably have a stronger ethos for freedom than a lot of the part-timers in the west who pay lip-service to freedom and then hand fat checks to the corrupt governments and banksters while they get the shaft from them.

Bitcoin mining has gravitated to the strongest hands, just as it was designed to be ... you cant truly know freedom until you have truly known oppression.

Oh please, where did you hear that freedom fighter story? Freedom means nothing to 99.9999% of Chinese. Otherwise China wouldn't be a corrupt, totalitarian, semi-marxist dictatorship.
None of the Chinese miners operate without the blessing of a corrupt communist party official. Like anything in China BTC mining is corrupt, unethical and controlled by the communist elite. Otherwise the virtually free electricity wouldn't be available for the miners.

[irritant]

chinese miners are true freedom fighters ... which of you in the west would risk your necks to run a quasi-legal operation under a communist, totalitarian regime? They chop heads off in china, the chinese miners probably have a stronger ethos for freedom than a lot of the part-timers in the west who pay lip-service to freedom and then hand fat checks to the corrupt governments and banksters while they get the shaft from them.

Bitcoin mining has gravitated to the strongest hands, just as it was designed to be ... you cant truly know freedom until you have truly known oppression.

Oh please, where did you hear that freedom fighter story? Freedom means nothing to 99.9999% of Chinese. Otherwise wouldn't be China a corrupt, totalitarian, semi-marxist dictatorship.
None of the Chinese miners operate without the blessing of a corrupt communist party official. Like anything in China BTC mining is corrupt, unethical and controlled by the communist elite. Otherwise the virtually free electricity wouldn't be available for the miners.

quoting famous last words

If we can't trust friedcat, who could we trust?

[TPTB_need_war]

in the end historically it always ends in hyper inflation and gold going through the roof.

Incorrect. It rarely ends that way. Only for entirely broken regimes. Sorry Armstrong has all the data. He invested $1 billion collecting it.

Edit: you are entirely wrong on hyperinflation. The history is that only revolutionary and totally broken regimes hyperinflate. The world is composed of very strong regimes and they will not lay down their power by hyperinflating. Armstrong covers this in great detail in his blogs. Required reading material for you.

Your saying collapsing governments and exploding fiscal budgets are not exactly a recipe for continually strong regimes. What makes you think some modern regimes you refer to today as strong are stronger than those hyper inflating in the past?

Read Armstrong and then you will know. You have a lot of reading ahead of you.

Edit: let me give you a quick, incomplete hint. Read Armstrong for the many details and points. The failed regimes were due to dictatorship and/or a bankrupt ideology (e.g. communism in the Weimar Republic).  When the population remains very productive and the debt is actually quite small (e.g. the debt is only $19 trillion in the USA but the productive capacity of the people is that much or more per year), then the society is not failed. We are going to see transition to a world reserve currency. This is not about total failure of government, except Europe is trying hard to achieve that again. China, Russia, USA, Canada, Australia, etc are no where near failed societies.

The halving is not some insignificant event.

If you don't mind me butting in, Bitcoin is on a real roll as I write this. $453 on Polo's USDT market; Coindesk's index has pegged it at ~$450. So far, good call.

Exactly what happened the last time 3 months before the halving then crashed -40%. You can be sure I will be selling my remaining 4 BTC into this rise.