Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

I just want to remind you guys MA is a con artist. One of the best I've ever seen. He so good really it's dangerous.

Yes, he has great knowledge of history and enocomics in general, but he is simply looney and lying in many of his claims.
Super-computer since 80's? Give me a break. His trading forecasts are too so bad it's ridiculous.
And when somebody gives you resistance/support it's completely backwards, he forecasts what has already happened.

That is so stupid and the oldest trick I can't believe he even says those things. He is consistently wrong. Last time few weeks ago.

http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.fi/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html
http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=536207
http://www.dvdbeaver.com/Gary/gold/martin_armstrong.htm

The criminal allegations have been unarguably proven to be false upthread. I am not going to repeat it again.

The mischaracterization of his predictions have been thoroughly refuted upthread as well. I am not going to repeat it again.

Just for example, the following:

then in 2013, when it was supposed to be taking off:
Gold's going to drop below $1000 (Oct 2013)
Gold – The Problem We Face | Armstrong Economics

That thread is so ignorant of what MA was writing. It just boggles my mind how low the reading comprehension of humans typically is. 

Get off our lawn.

[sidhujag]

The mischaracterization of his predictions have been thoroughly refuted upthread as well. I am not going to repeat it again.

Just for example, the following:

That thread is so ignorant of what MA was writing. It just boggles my mind how low the reading comprehension of humans typically is.  

Get off our lawn.

You gotta be fucking kidding me. He makes CONSISTENTLY wrong predictions. We have even backtested his numbers and you really do better coinflipping.

If you gonna give resistance/support you better give the percentages of hitting too, and i want to see the backtested results for those percentages.

Anybody who have any professional experience of trading knows it's 100% bullshit he spills with his numbers

Hey is only useful for Macro views which we all kinda know as obvious but he backs up with facts.  Anything short term or medium term he is useless like many other prophets.. for what it's worth.

[TPTB_need_war]

We have even backtested his numbers and you really do better coinflipping.

You are a liar. Publish your spreadsheet with unambiguous footnotes for every number in the spreadsheet.

Until then, you are just a troll.

Last time dow was taking hit he gave you "13000" support number, he literally had no clue what's going on. November he is telling dow gonna take of in march. In March he tells dow going to take in 2016 etc.

You are reading the same blogs as I am, but you are not comprehending what he is writing. You are looking at it the way you want to read it and not understanding the way his system works.

If you gonna give resistance/support you better give the percentages of hitting too, and i want to see the backtested results for those percentages.

The system doesn't work that way. It is a "if this, then that" matrix. Not a "% chance of this and % chance of that".

[BitFomo]

Dont trust anyone who claims to know the exact date the market will crash.

[TPTB_need_war]

Dont trust anyone who claims to know the exact date the market will crash.

Except the person who has done it so many times.

Again it is never "the market will crash on this date". It is always an "if this, then that".

[BitFomo]

Dont trust anyone who claims to know the exact date the market will crash.

Except the person who has done it so many times.

Again it is never "the market will crash on this date". It is always an "if this, then that".

All i now is that his 2015.75 prediction got blown out of the water. Zerohedge has been 'predicting' the great crash ever since 2009.

[OROBTC]

Dont trust anyone who claims to know the exact date the market will crash.

Except the person who has done it so many times.

Again it is never "the market will crash on this date". It is always an "if this, then that".

All i now is that his 2015.75 prediction got blown out of the water. Zerohedge has been 'predicting' the great crash ever since 2009.

LOL    <=== (in a good sense)

Zero Hedge (or rather their columnists) rarely get(s) it right.

I have hardly ever seen a Big Prediction (from anyone) come true when the predictor gives a specific time frame (or even conditionally).

Predicting the future is very hard.  I contend that NO ONE can do it with any decent percentage above random...

But, I am open-minded to Armstrong, as he has been building the BIGGEST database of indicators and looks at cyclicality.  His take is unique, and he DOES have paying subscribers.

[TPTB_need_war]

"Scam" doesn't really seem relevant here.  Ethereum talked about what they planned on trying to deliver over a year and a half ago in these forums and did exactly that.  They came out with prototypes long before release.  If they'd run off with all presale money without delivering then "scam" might be appropriate but when someone does exactly what they say they are going to try to do you can't classify it as a scam - doesn't really fit the dictionary definition.  Words mean stuff ... save scam for when it applies (and FUD too for that matter).

As to the scaling - ethereum has a roadmap that should lead it into feasable scaling with casper.  At Bitcoin's current trajectory even quadrupling the transaction load would be death.  At least ethereum acknowledges it as a problem and is taking proactive steps.  Not some hellish wallet hack that should be done thru a hardfork WITH a blocksize increase.

FWIW I feel as uneasy with my money in ethereum as bitcoin.  But his big picture view of what could happen with a price increase -> volume increase -> clogged transaction -> halving -> price drop -> further hash drop -> further price decrease reflects what I've been thinking for the last few months.  I give it some probability of happening and I see it discussed very little.

At $500+, I don't know why anyone in their sane mind would hold Bitcoin. You aren't going to make +100% gain from $500 in 2016. No way Jose! The point of holding Bitcoin is for a long-term bet and with a lot of capital. For your quick 10 baggers, you have to play the bets with altcoins.

The dollar will appreciate 30 - 50% from now through end of 2017. Since Bitcoin is a preservation of capital holding, it is a no brainer to sell Bitcoin $500 to $600 and hold dollars until later in the year and get some clarity.

Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.

P.S. I've removed rdnkjdi from my Ignore list because he only went there because he asked me to, he doesn't deserve to be grouped with the real trolls, and his posts lately are more thought out.

[TPTB_need_war]

Dont trust anyone who claims to know the exact date the market will crash.

Except the person who has done it so many times.

Again it is never "the market will crash on this date". It is always an "if this, then that".

All i now is that his 2015.75 prediction got blown out of the water. Zerohedge has been 'predicting' the great crash ever since 2009.

Try reading this thread before you put your foot in your mouth.

I already documented that the Baltic Sea index's dead cat bounce peaked exactly on March 13/14 turn date. And the 2015.75 turn date coincided precisely with either the refugee crisis start or Putin entering Syria (I forgot which it was).

Armstrong never predicted a market crash on 2015.75. This is the turn date for the major downtrend for the sovereign debt crisis. And we got a major push to destroy Europe on precisely that Sept 30/Oct 1 date.

[sidhujag]

Dont trust anyone who claims to know the exact date the market will crash.

Except the person who has done it so many times.

Again it is never "the market will crash on this date". It is always an "if this, then that".

All i now is that his 2015.75 prediction got blown out of the water. Zerohedge has been 'predicting' the great crash ever since 2009.

Again plz read my post I said don't bother short or medium term with ma only long term.
Short term just go opposite of anonymity or ma and you will make money. That's what I did. They are profitable indicators for me.

[TPTB_need_war]

At $500+, I don't know why anyone in their sane mind would hold Bitcoin. You aren't going to make +100% gain from $500 in 2016.

Let's break out the list:

1)  Because it's literally a free money asymmetric trade, which is why the price is going up.  The odds of losing are far lower than gaining.

That is what rpietila was preaching at $1000, $600, $300, but afair he got mighty quiet at $150. I was on the opposite side of all those calls.

Hope you aren't going to repeat the fatal mistake of marrying an asset. Marriage is for once-in-a-lifetime relationship between individuals. An asset is a groupthink phenomenon.

2)  There are only two monetary instruments on earth immune to cascading deflationary collapse of fractional reserve fiat from debts and loans going bad:  Bitcoin and Metals.

Until at least the end of 2017, the US dollar will not be deflating because the rest of the world is already deflating, is $10+ trillion "carry trade" short the dollar, and the chaos is sending massive international capital stampeding for a safe haven in the US dollar and US dollar assets such as the USA stock market and trophy real estate. Armstrong has been predicting this since 2012 and he explaining it will radically accelerate probably after the BREXIT vote.

BTC, gold down, US dollar up. Sorry man. Longer-term gold, CC up, and US dollar up. 2018+ a global monetary reset.

3)  If I buy gold, it has less utility than Bitcoin.  Where can I spend gold?  Nowhere.  All I can do with gold is mail it back to the gold dealer for 90% or less of what I paid for it.  Bitcoin utility is currently higher than gold for most people, yet the market cap is zilch.  Expect a correction to occur with Bitcoin market cap increasing because this is a truely distorted market if the tiny market cap asset has more acceptance and utility than the huge market cap one.

Those whales who invest in gold don't trust Bitcoin as an asset. Those who use Bitcoin for transactions are not that numerous. Bitcoin is caught in between two markets it can't do either one very well. Why do you think I am going to fix this problem! Because I see precisely where the problem is and how to fix it.

4)  Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price.  People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.

The mining profit will come from increasing transaction fees × transaction volume. The problem is that increasing the block size too much will lower the fees. This is why this has been such a contentious issue. The mining cartel in China wants to make sure they can set the block size to maximize that multiplicative product. Why do others not able to deduce what is so obvious to me 

5)  Bitcoin moves in bubbles and there was an extremely long bear market accumulation period with observable hard floors.  Whenever a long accumulation period occurs on an actual liquid asset, the price explodes afterwards.  If you think Bitcoin is not going to see big moves, you are mistaken.

Volume matters. We have very low volume on this rise.

6)  The inflation rate is going from 8% to 4%, so it's actually a real currency now instead of some hyperinflating bullshit.

Bitcoin's volatility makes that entirely insignificant. Bitcoin can't be a currency until it has an economy where it is the unit-of-account. Well it actually has one, that is Bitcoin is the unit-of-account the crypto gambling economy.

[TPTB_need_war]

4)  Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price.  People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.

The mining profit will come from increasing transaction fees × transaction volume. The problem is that increasing the block size too much will lower the fees. This is why this has been such a contentious issue. The mining cartel in China wants to make sure they can set the block size to maximize that multiplicative product. Why do others not able to deduce what is so obvious to me  

Bitcoin's volatility makes that entirely insignificant. Bitcoin can't be a currency until it has an economy where it is the unit-of-account. Well it actually has one, that is Bitcoin is the unit-of-account of the crypto gambling economy.

This is more important than you may realize. The Chinese are trying to trade their BTC for ETH, so they can control Ethereum when it goes Proof-of-Stake in Casper. So they can control the block sizes so they can maximize the transaction fees × transaction volume multiplicative product. Realize the Chinese want to control that multiplicative product for all major CCs. They will control the #1 PoW coin Bitcoin and the #1 PoS coin Ethereum. They control Bitcoin via ASIC mining and Ethereum by owning a majority of the ETH.

This is another reason ETH will rise again after BTC peaks at $500:

Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.

[TPTB_need_war]

@TPTB: Isn't gambling on alts very risky long term since BTC could crash anytime ? I'm always scared into putting money in ETH or XMR because while I see them increasing in BTC price at certain times, they could also decline in term of USD... I missed the latest XMR rally because of that. I saw it coming but I thought : yeah it can go x2 but btc could go down to 150...

The only speculators who are consistently winning on altcoins are those who buy/mine them when they are worthless, and then selling them when they get pumped.

Long-term if you believe a particular altcoin has a feature set and adoption direction that will drive it to compete with Bitcoin, then perhaps you can justify a long-term holding and just ignore the gut wrenching volatility.

I believe perhaps the Chinese felt Ethereum would be a major coin and thus I believe they have thrown BTC at it. And I think many people mined ETH because it can be mined with a GPU, thus there are many people willing to evangelize it. So it was a self-fulfilling bubble because so many people got interested in it. I do believe it will end up like Litecoin and BTS did, because fundamentally AFAICS it doesn't add anything realistic that is a huge market. But it might be good for another move up to perhaps a double-top before we are done. Right now is maximum pessimism because Vitalik admitted he sold 25%. And Homestead hype is already released. But there is still the hype coming before the release of Casper (if we haven't preempted it with the Ethereum Paradox thread, but I doubt we have that power here in this obscure forum).

Right now all the CCs have to be analyzed in terms of what speculators want to buy and mine. The speculators are like a hive of bees and they move from one arbitrage to the next, not only on price but also on mining hash functions, etc.. There is a lot of game theory to analyze in this speculation ecosystem comprising Bitcoin and the altcoins.

I don't really know what to advise you. I would not short BTC. I am not that confident of a crash.

What I am doing is moving to cash USA dollars (because upside on speculation is limited to perhaps a 100% gain and I am more interested in preservation of capital for the moment and the US dollar should give me solid 30 - 50% gains if I hold to late 2017) and I want to buy an altcoin very cheap later this year or early 2017 to aim for 10 to 1000X long-term gain (not a pump). I think you can guess which altcoin I would want to buy because I would have the most confidence in my own role as a lead dev.

The lack of timeline in the fall of BTC makes me miss alot of profit !!!

It is easy to convince ourselves of the profit we would have made, because we ignore all the wrong speculations we would have also made. In retrospect our performance is perfect, lol.

@TPTB: I have a theory regarding ETH. We all thought wallstreets would wake up to BTC at some point and they would end up buying it from us. We all thought we were front running them. What if Wallstreet has another strategy ? they back coins such as ETH, and use their enormous positions to pump the price to agitate greed inside us so we give them our rare btcs for their unlimited eth ?

Excellent! Yeah the game theory is complex.

[Alex-11]

Remember when Armstrong was "forecasting" that the Fed was on the path to raise rates back in September 2015. 8 months later, only one hike. No comments...

Indeed, "The Forcaster" can be wrong with his opinion.  Even MA said he is not perfect himself and can't make 100% correct predictions. But a 60 to 90% hits (depending on which area) isn't that bad, IMO. 

[sidhujag]

Remember when Armstrong was "forecasting" that the Fed was on the path to raise rates back in September 2015. 8 months later, only one hike. No comments...

Indeed, "The Forcaster" can be wrong with his opinion.  Even MA said he is not perfect himself and can't make 100% correct predictions. But a 60 to 90% hits (depending on which area) isn't that bad, IMO. 

Except that his whole flawed theory is based on interest rates rising in the US.

he will never be right about exact timing of things to happen because people can change their minds.. its not a DAC. But maybe his ideas have merit IF and WHEN the rates go up, because we know they will and how will market take it... but then again we all know what will probably happen without a tech. breakthrough we are doomed for a depression.

[TPTB_need_war]

Martin Armstrong is not wrong about rising interest rates. They are coming as predicted. He never gave a specific date for interest rates to rise. It was only that trend would start 2015.75, which it did. The acceleration is coming. Hold on to your underwear.

[TPTB_need_war]

Fed hikes, Bitcoin down. As I told you would happen, that the speculation markets fear rising interest rates, so initially there will be a contagion as in 2008:

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-awaits-fed-rates-call/

The larger contagion is still to come. We may make another push towards $500 after end of the month.

[TPTB_need_war]

This is what is going to happen to you:

I believe you will learn a very important lesson soon.

Remember the Chinese miners are highly leveraged fiat debt queens.

Manufacturing in China is a 0 profit activity. Read Michael Pettis.

Remember the Chinese miners are highly leveraged fiat debt queens.

And they're in an emerging market with tremendous growth potential, while everyone else on the planet is also in the same enormous fiat debt, except their debt is in something not productive.  When the cascading defaults occur in the global economy, it will create a black swan event.  So much of the digital fiat will instantly vaporize that the system will no longer function.  The people who maxed out their credit cards on something that will actually be useful on the other side of this are probably the smartest people in the room when nobody is going to be paying back those debts anyway.

It doesn't work that way in practice. Armstrong has explained that rest of the world will collapse first driving the USA dollar skyhigh, because the rest of the world was borrowing in dollars and pegging their currencies to dollars, thus the rest of the world is short the dollar. A massive short covering effect is coming. And thus the international capital will follow like ducks chasing the gains in the USA dollar and USA stock market. Causing a massive bubble while the rest of the world is collapsing.

When the dollar becomes too strong and the bubble reaches its apex, then the dollar will collapse and the world will end up in a monetary reset chaos 2018 - 2020.

So what's your reply to this?  You think the Chinese miners are going to get squeezed so hard they have to dump everything?  They already dump everything lol.

The large scale miners operating on debt. They will be forced to dump more Bitcoin as interest rates rise. Mining on low interest rate loans has been great.

Your scenario doesn't make sense.  There's no reason for all these nations to be beholden to the US dollar and collapse while acting as indentured servants to the US.

It doesn't make sense. But it is a fact. The value of dollars raised by foreign corporations via bonds that have to repaid in dollars is $10 trillion since 2008.

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. The Chinese Yuan has been more or less pegged the US dollar. This policy enabled China to force all savings in China into 0 profit manufacturing. Read Michael Pettis to understand the macro economics.

What you think is irrelevant. These are the facts.

[TPTB_need_war]

without looking it up (i'm lazy tonight) gonna state you are wrong about the comparison of man's co2 to volcanoes.

Read what Armstrong wrote as quoted in my prior post. It is the ash, not the CO2 that matters.

The ash and particulate from volcanoes creates a 2-3 year cooling effect which can be world wide.  however, this is not a permanant change.

Armstrong's supercomputer and $billion of historical data has correlated that in fact it is a more permanent change or inflection juncture (perhaps not climate but societal). Science (data) trumps guesswork.

It must kick off a cascade of effects.

Follow-up by Armstrong with charts:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/we-are-headed-into-a-new-ice-age-but-when/


Correlate with the scientists' recent discovery of a backtested predictive computer model for the sun's emission Maunder Minimum which predicts Mini Ice Age starting again 2030ish:

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aarmstrongeconomics.com+maunder+minimum

I am not obliged to faithfully believe Armstrong's "Supercomputer."  Just show persuasive arguments backed with facts.

THanks.

No one demanded you to do so. You retain your free will and can lose or gain from your decisions. You are welcome to compile the data yourself and build your own model. In the meantime, I make judgements based on discernment.

I believe if you challenge MA in email, he will provide the raw data to you and some direction on his methodology.

I believe the charts he showed are displaying generally available data.

As for the backtested predictability of the correlation of societal change, I think you need $billion to compile the data Armstrong claims to have compiled and multi-dimensionally cross-correlated.

The cited backtested model for the Maunder Minimum 2030 prediction has 95+% backtested accuracy and is an open sourced scientific discovery. It doesn't come from Armstrong's database and computer.

While there is a body of scientific literature discussing the probability of a coming mini ice age, this is credited as existing by Armstrong, and is not predicted by him or his computers.

Yep that is my point.

As for the rest of your comments, it's up to him (or you) to back the claims made with proof.  Not my job.

Incorrect. A man without discernment is lost. You'll never have absolute proof for every decision and judgement you need to make in life. The scientific method is not absolute proof.

Your taxonomy is too strict and out of touch with reality.

[TPTB_need_war]

It doesn't make sense. But it is a fact. The value of dollars raised by foreign corporations via bonds that have to repaid in dollars is $10 trillion since 2008.

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. The Chinese Yuan has been more or less pegged the US dollar. This policy enabled China to force all savings in China into 0 profit manufacturing. Read Michael Pettis to understand the macro economics.

What you think is irrelevant. These are the facts.

...the flight of capital to the US would send Bitcoin to the moon in the process.  I think this debunks your idea that gold and Bitcoin can be linked at all completely.  Capital flight to US assets or USD will send Bitcoin skyrocketing.  Bitcoin is the Rolls Royce of capital flight.

Indeed this is what is predicted for 2017 to 2020ish. But first there will be an initial asset-wide reaction to a global liquidity squeeze when the interest rates change direction. Then the capital flight movement (from the liquidity crisis affected economies) leads to a concentration in USD, US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold and other tangible private assets will upward spiral (positive feedback loop effect) into to a bubble stampede into them. Thus the V bottom slingshot prediction.

And gold will be also be going up as a safe haven flight asset:

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; At the WEC you said stay in cash not debt. You also said the stock market would dive in the first quarter the turn back up. I have followed the reversals all the way up and caught probably 80% of the move. Thank you. My question is simply are knocking of heaven’s door? Is it time to breakout or are we consolidating? I have found the Socrates preview for attendees a real asset for it has no agenda but forecasting.

ANSWER: Well put. Stay in mostly cash, far away from fixed income. Yes, we are knocking on heaven’s door as they say in the Dow. The GMW has done a pretty good job for this rally. The Daily Bullish Reversal in the Dow that is important stands at 18137.50. We reached 18167,63 intraday, but could not close about that Reversal. It is possible to break through to new highs on the cash index. However, to do so we need that daily closing just to test the former high established last May at 18351.36. We need to exceed that high here in 2016 to imply we will continue to push higher.

Nevertheless, it is never wise to ANTICIPATE such breakouts because that is how people buy the high and lose a fortune. A daily close above 18010 will help warn that we may press high for a day. Keep in mind we are at the threshold in many markets. If we press higher after April, then we can see an early rally into June/July. But lift-off still appears to be next year in almost everything.

The issue seems to be CONFIDENCE. That must crack, and when it does, this will be confirmed by the breakout in everything.

Ethereum still looks massively inflated. I would not feel comfortable holding any amount for longer than a few days.

It has been massively inflated since Day 1 of the ICO. That hasn't been relevant though.

I mean, it's obvious why, just military dominance.

There's a lot of truth in that. London UK became the financial center of the world thanks in large part to the British Empire. And with American geopolitical predominance, history has repeated: trillions upon trillions of greenback-equivalent just keep knocking of the door of New York to be let into the American capital markets.

And here's a fun fact: when the sun sets on the geopolitically-predominant power, two aftereffects persist: 1) world-class standing in the capital markets; 2) a bloated military budget.

The shift of the military and financial capital of the world from the USA to China+Asia won't be complete until 2032.95 (thus isn't relevant to our current discussion):

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aarmstrongeconomics.com+rise+of+China