Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread

[kawetsriyanto]

Well, Sané and Gnabry play different positions and have very different skill sets; they are no central forwards, but more coming down the flanks, need some space and speed to really shine. Lewandowski is a modern-oldschool striker. Haaland was mentioned, who would fit pretty well imo and Bayern has a habit of buying the best players from Dortmund (and the rest of the league).

It is true. Sané and Gnabry cannot replace the position of Lewandowski, they are playing in different positions. Also, they have a very different attacking style. Indeed, Bayern needs another one to replace Lewandowski's position. Yes, Haaland seems to fit in that position, but I think Bayern still doesn't need him in the near future. Lewandowski is still playing in his best performance, not needed to buy someone for his position. Buying Haaland only makes him sit on the bench for a long time, then it will make him worse. It is better to let Haaland play in Dortmund to have more experience. If Bayern really wants to buy Haaland, just contact him and his agent to reach a personal agreement to sign a contract after the next 1 or 2 years. IMO  

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[hd49728]

Compare it to Reus from Dortmund, who is extremely important for them, though in a different position. He just played 20 games per season on average in the last 6 years, because dude just can't stay healthy. So being a good/gifted player isn't enough, your body must be ready for the challenge as well and Lewandowski is just amazing overall.

Or players have to adapt to avoid injuries. Arjen Robben got many injuries in Chelsea and Real Madrid, the intensity is higher in Real but after he moved to Bayer, he became a stronger player and got less injuries till his retirement. His body was stronger as you can see, more muscles. Reus' body is still the same over many seasons. Of course, body muscles are only one of reasons and vulnerable players have to adapt to play smarter and avoid as much tacklings from opponents as possible.

[bct_ail]

The city of Berlin has allowed a maximum of 5000 people to participate in open-air events.
Thus, up to 5000 spectators will be present at the test match between Nürnberg and Union Berlin on Saturday.
But not only at Union Berlin spectators are allowed. Hertha will also allow 5000 spectators at the first home game in the Bundesliga on September 25 against Frankfurt.
https://www.rbb24.de/sport/beitrag/2020/09/fussball-bundesliga-hertha-bsc-saisonauftakt-4000-zuschauer.html

[Lafu]

If the rise of new infections will grow i guess they dont allow spectators and will change there mind on that !
And the DFB was fighting about that to allow spectators yesterday for the match Germany against Spain and they even dont allow that .

I think that we dont will see some spectators , but we will see when the League are starting .

[OcTradism]

If the rise of new infections will grow i guess they dont allow spectators and will change there mind on that !
And the DFB was fighting about that to allow spectators yesterday for the match Germany against Spain and they even dont allow that .

I think that we dont will see some spectators , but we will see when the League are starting .

With the ongoing pandemic and the vaccine distribution and vaccination are still far, the community immunity has not yet been touched, matches without spectators are the best for all. It will be best not only for leagues but also for the communities. None of us want to see football matches play as a hub of infections from which virus will be spread out silently. It is too dangerous for society.

Please recall the theory that the match between Valencia and Atalanta spreads the virus from Bergamo (Italy) to Spain, then put the 2 nations become first and biggest infected nations in Europe at that time.

[MCobian]

If the rise of new infections will grow i guess they dont allow spectators and will change there mind on that !
And the DFB was fighting about that to allow spectators yesterday for the match Germany against Spain and they even dont allow that .

I think that we dont will see some spectators , but we will see when the League are starting .

With the ongoing pandemic and the vaccine distribution and vaccination are still far, the community immunity has not yet been touched, matches without spectators are the best for all. It will be best not only for leagues but also for the communities. None of us want to see football matches play as a hub of infections from which virus will be spread out silently. It is too dangerous for society.

Please recall the theory that the match between Valencia and Atalanta spreads the virus from Bergamo (Italy) to Spain, then put the 2 nations become first and biggest infected nations in Europe at that time.

I agree that as long as the vaccine has not been found, it is better if the bundesliga is held without spectators. Since that is the best thing to do,
a match without spectators is one way to prevent the spread of the corona virus. We all have to be patient watching the Bundesliga without
spectators at the stadium, it must be admitted reduce the excitement of the match. But we must put the safety of all parties first.

[Juggy777]

If the rise of new infections will grow i guess they dont allow spectators and will change there mind on that !
And the DFB was fighting about that to allow spectators yesterday for the match Germany against Spain and they even dont allow that .

I think that we dont will see some spectators , but we will see when the League are starting .

With the ongoing pandemic and the vaccine distribution and vaccination are still far, the community immunity has not yet been touched, matches without spectators are the best for all. It will be best not only for leagues but also for the communities. None of us want to see football matches play as a hub of infections from which virus will be spread out silently. It is too dangerous for society.

Please recall the theory that the match between Valencia and Atalanta spreads the virus from Bergamo (Italy) to Spain, then put the 2 nations become first and biggest infected nations in Europe at that time.

I agree that as long as the vaccine has not been found, it is better if the bundesliga is held without spectators. Since that is the best thing to do,
a match without spectators is one way to prevent the spread of the corona virus. We all have to be patient watching the Bundesliga without
spectators at the stadium, it must be admitted reduce the excitement of the match. But we must put the safety of all parties first.

@Lafu as far as I know German authorities were keen to allow fans back in the stands as soon as the league begins, and in my personal opinion it’s a risky move because it could lead to a second wave of coronavirus attack. Furthermore if they insist on allowing fans back in the stands then they should limit the number of fans to few 100 only, and make sure that those fans strictly follow social distancing rules.

Source:

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11881/12042382/bundesliga-clubs-agree-plan-for-fans-to-return-to-stadiums-as-early-as-september

https://sports.ndtv.com/football/germany-health-minister-opposes-bundesliga-plan-to-allow-fans-in-stadiums-2277403

[Darkoth89]

Something that I don't understand is why there seem to be different regulations for each federal state here in Germany. In Leipzig fans will be allowed at the start of the new season, but what's with the other stadiums? Why are there no uniform regulations for this?

3 weeks ago Jens Spahn (health minister) said "thousands of spectators in the stadiums - that does not match the current infection rate." (Source). Now this seems to have changed already (for some states at least)?! I really hope that the clubs and the DFL aren't rushing things here and that the fans - if allowed in the stadium - accept the new rules and comply with them. Back in March we saw how easily the virus can spread amongst fans in a crowded stadium.

[Lafu]

Something that I don't understand is why there seem to be different regulations for each federal state here in Germany. In Leipzig fans will be allowed at the start of the new season, but what's with the other stadiums? Why are there no uniform regulations for this?

3 weeks ago Jens Spahn (health minister) said "thousands of spectators in the stadiums - that does not match the current infection rate." (Source). Now this seems to have changed already (for some states at least)?! I really hope that the clubs and the DFL aren't rushing things here and that the fans - if allowed in the stadium - accept the new rules and comply with them. Back in March we saw how easily the virus can spread amongst fans in a crowded stadium.

I also dont understand this but hey welcome to germany ! Specialy in Bavaria there are some regulations that others dont have .
But as i said lets wait what will come in the mean time before the League starts , there are a few days for that and it can be happen so much.

[tyKiwanuka]

Something that I don't understand is why there seem to be different regulations for each federal state here in Germany.

Well, you already gave yourself the answer: Germany is a federal Republic And the DFL is not yet bigger than local health authorities, so when Saxony allows XXXX people for events and Bavaria does not, thats just something we have to live with and I think it's fine. Because if it goes well in those places, where there are spectators allowed, it's more likely that the more strict states will allow spectators as well. Someone has to be the first to test (successfully) for others to follow

I don't see a big issue putting a few k specators in a stadium tbh, since it's outdoors and you will not have packed stands. Just hope that there will be some hardcore fans as well to have a bit of an atmosphere again. Just 500 of them are already enough, to get some more football vibes after months of lab conditions in the stadiums. Only two weeks to go until 1./2. Bundesliga start again and I am already excited

[Darkoth89]

Well, you already gave yourself the answer: Germany is a federal Republic And the DFL is not yet bigger than local health authorities, so when Saxony allows XXXX people for events and Bavaria does not, thats just something we have to live with and I think it's fine. Because if it goes well in those places, where there are spectators allowed, it's more likely that the more strict states will allow spectators as well. Someone has to be the first to test (successfully) for others to follow

I don't see a big issue putting a few k specators in a stadium tbh, since it's outdoors and you will not have packed stands. Just hope that there will be some hardcore fans as well to have a bit of an atmosphere again. Just 500 of them are already enough, to get some more football vibes after months of lab conditions in the stadiums. Only two weeks to go until 1./2. Bundesliga start again and I am already excited

Sure, the DFL wouldn't be the one that have to decide that but the politicians could have put their foot down and set up a common rule for all stadiums.

Btw. just today Jens Spahn, the German health minister, did also criticize the current situation with different regulations all over the country. He would have very much liked "that we have a common approach for the start in the Bundesliga by the end of October" (Source).

As much as I am excited for the start of the next season and for the fans to come back to the stadiums (to create that unique atmosphere), I still have the feeling that all this is a bit rushed. Because once fans are allowed back in the football stadiums, other events (like concerts etc.) would like to follow that example understandably. And all that without the whole pandemic fully under control seems very risky to me.

[Lafu]

As much as I am excited for the start of the next season and for the fans to come back to the stadiums (to create that unique atmosphere), I still have the feeling that all this is a bit rushed.

Yes i see this the same way like you doing , its all a bit to fast with the Fans in the stadiums !
And even now when the cases already again growing and the new infections goes up with all the coming back people from the holidays !
They have allow then some Fans in the CL Final or for the Game Germany against Spain too.

[Darkoth89]

The first round of the DFB pokal will take place this week from Friday to Monday (note that the Bayern match will be in October). A perfect opportunity to bridge the waiting time for the start of the new Bundesliga season.

Typically for the frist round of this competition there will be a lot of matches where a team from the first or second Bundesliga plays against an amateur team or a club from the lower leagues. This format always offers some surprises every year. Which are the matches of a club from the first or second leage against one of the third league or below where you think the underdog has the best chances for an upset?



Source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/news/2020-21-dfb-cup-overview-bayern-munich-borussia-dortmund-12193

Ingolstadt - Fortuna Düsseldorf
After Düsseldorfs relegation and Ingolstadt's near promotion to the second Bundesliga, I don't see both teams so far apart anymore. Düsseldorf should still be favoured but I can totally see Ingolstadt here showing a surprising performance.

SSV Ulm - Erzgebierge Aue
Two years ago Ulm managed to kick out Eintracht Frankfurt in the first round of the DFB pokal, the team that has won the cup in the previous season. So Aue should be warned. What also speaks for Ulm, is that the Regionalliga has already started again and Ulm already has some macht practice.

Hansa Rostock - VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgarts (best) offensive player Gonzalez is injured and will miss the first DFB Pokal match. Also Thommy and Förster are injured. Maybe this can be the chance for Rostock?

SV Wehen Wiesbaden - Heidenheim
With Dorsch, Kleindienst and Griesbeck, Heidenheim lost some of their most important players after last seasons relegation drama. Right now I don't see that they haven't found adequate replacements for them.

[tyKiwanuka]

Nice post @Darkoth89

Lots of boring games on paper and the ones I fancied for an upset unfortunately are priced more or less ok, with the favourite having high-ish odds.

I think Hertha will have their hands full with Braunschweig. This can be considered some kind of a derby and freshly promoted Braunschweig should be super motivated, while always being tough to beat at home. Hertha was rather poor in the test matches - although against good opposition - and the Labbadia-magic only works for so long always. Now Hertha is priced at around 1.80, which seems reasonable and I don't think worth a punt on 1X. I would have liked something around 1.60 better to oppose them. This will probably go into overtime.

St. Pauli is historically not a very good cup team. They often struggle in the first rounds and more often than not are eliminated by a lower division team. But the market knows this too and so they are 1.90+ against a team that plays only in Regionalliga (Division 4). Elversberg is a good Div4 team though, while St. Pauli is a mediocre/bad 2. Bundesliga team, so the difference might only be 1.5 divisions in the end^^ Still I somehow like the 1.90, even if I wanted to oppose them at first

For all those <1.20 favs I can't imagine any upsets looking through the games, but there will definitely be a few. Just hard to pick them with so few information available at the start of a season.

[bct_ail]

The city of Berlin has allowed a maximum of 5000 people to participate in open-air events.
Thus, up to 5000 spectators will be present at the test match between Nürnberg and Union Berlin on Saturday.
But not only at Union Berlin spectators are allowed. Hertha will also allow 5000 spectators at the first home game in the Bundesliga on September 25 against Frankfurt.
https://www.rbb24.de/sport/beitrag/2020/09/fussball-bundesliga-hertha-bsc-saisonauftakt-4000-zuschauer.html

Luckily Beer Halls option is still opened in Munich which may be even better than open-air event as  both  the  inside atmosphere and own brewed  beer will warm up the game.  Nur has one Yellow and one Red cards. Nevertheless I would bet for Nur.

Are you still in a beer hall?   
Does Nur stands for Nürnberg? If this is the case, then I would recommend not to bet for Nürnberg.
Nürnberg has already played last Saturday. Union Berlin has won the game 2 -1.

[Darkoth89]

I think Hertha will have their hands full with Braunschweig. This can be considered some kind of a derby and freshly promoted Braunschweig should be super motivated, while always being tough to beat at home. Hertha was rather poor in the test matches - although against good opposition - and the Labbadia-magic only works for so long always. Now Hertha is priced at around 1.80, which seems reasonable and I don't think worth a punt on 1X. I would have liked something around 1.60 better to oppose them. This will probably go into overtime.

Thought about that, too. Especially when considering how bad they played against PSV. That was almost 2 weeks ago now, so actually enough time for Labbadia to catch up and work on the most critical things. But what I think can become a problem for Hertha, not only in the DFB pokal but in general, is the very high expectations everyone has for them after they received that massive amount of money from Windhorst. It will be interesting how the players, coach and officials react if they sleep the start of the season away.

Also worth mentioning is that for Hertha Piatek will miss the match because he has to go into a 5-day quarantine after his journey to Bosnia-Herzegovina with the Polish national team.

For all those <1.20 favs I can't imagine any upsets looking through the games, but there will definitely be a few. Just hard to pick them with so few information available at the start of a season.

That's the thing with upsets. They are hard to imagine until the match is actually over.  

What do you think about the match Waldhof Mannheim - SC Freiburg? Freiburg lost Koch, Waldschmidt and Schwolow this summer. All 3 played a very important role for them last season. Guus Til, probably the replacement for Waldschmidt, is still injured. And in general, the SC tend to have problems against teams that play defensive and when they are in possession most of the time. Last year they also struggled in the first round of the DFB pokal against Magdeburg and had to go into overtime. This could be a very close match on Sunday imo.

[tyKiwanuka]

What do you think about the match Waldhof Mannheim - SC Freiburg?

Yes, could be worth a try, maybe +1 for ~2.10; this is also a little (state) derby. Schwolow is no big loss imo - there are barely problems with good goalies in german football - but Koch and Waldschmidt are surely not easy to replace. Mannheim did quite well last season after promotion and they were pretty solid defensively. The only issue I see is the lack of spectators, who normally always have a big impact on the lower division home teams. This advantage is gone completely and the environment in Mannheim can be super hostile. Which also leads me to the next point......

......since some smaller clubs forfeited their home advantage. This is due to them not being able to meet all the Corona requirements or it's just not worth it on a financial level. So for quite a lot of matches home/away changed:

Altglienecke - Köln
Fürstenwalde - Wolfsburg
Norderstedt - Leverkusen
Havelse - Mainz
Schweinfurt - Schalke
Engers – Bochum
Oberneuland – Gladbach
Meinerzhagen – Fürth
Celle – Augsburg
Rielasingen - Kiel
Düren - Bayern
(Todesfelde - Osnabrück TBD)

All the teams on the right will actually have home advantage. I am not sure, if this is already priced in - I think not. And then again placing HC bets on the favourites should result in good profits

So I am throwing these bets in the mix

Köln -2.5 (~2.10)
Wolfsburg -3.5 (~1.80)
Leverkusen -3.5 (~1.80)
Mainz -2.5 (~1.90)
Schalke -2.5 (~1.90)
Bochum -3 (~1.80)
Gladbach -3.5 (~1.80)
Fürth -2.5 (~1.90)
Augsburg -3.5 (~1.90)
Kiel -2.5 (~1.80)

I am not sure, which one of these I will actually play, but just some input^^ Leverkusen, Gladbach and Kiel I probably like the most.

[Darkoth89]

......since some smaller clubs forfeited their home advantage. This is due to them not being able to meet all the Corona requirements or it's just not worth it on a financial level. So for quite a lot of matches home/away changed:

[...]

All the teams on the right will actually have home advantage. I am not sure, if this is already priced in - I think not. And then again placing HC bets on the favourites should result in good profits

Do you think that this will really be an deciding factor for the smaller teams? For their players these matches in the DFB Pokal are the absolute highlight of their football "career". I don't think they will lack any focus/motivation only because they can't play in their home stadium (and infront of their fans). The only thing is that they couid be a bit intimidated by the huge stadiums of the Bundesliga teams? But that would probably only really be the case if the stadium were full of fans.

Something else that came into my mind and that could play an more important role is that a lot of the amateur teams (below the third league) haven't really gotten any match practice due to the Corona crisis and also training wasn't possible for a long time. And often these aren't full-time players but have an different "main-job". I doubt that they all had the time and equipment to completely stay in shape and train at home like the professional players.

[bct_ail]

Beer wins always.

Sure, of course. 

The first round of the DFB pokal will take place this week from Friday to Monday (note that the Bayern match will be in October).

The saying is: The DFB Pokal has is own rules. But I think this time the teams of the 1st and 2nd Bundesliga have advantages because of the pandemic. Most of the clubs in the Bundesliga could train and play during the last month. The teams from the 3rd Bundesliga and below were partly not allowed to train because the country did not allow it.

[tyKiwanuka]

Do you think that this will really be an deciding factor for the smaller teams?

I think this will make a huge difference, yes, but I am not saying that every HC will get beat For these small teams, their own ground is their living room. They probably go there by bike, have some fun with their teammates, a beer after practice/game; it's a very comfortable environment for them. In such a big game, they have friends and family by their side and it's overall a big party in these often small towns/villages. All this is gone with forfeiting home advantage and going on a an away trip.

And the difference is also for the teams that now have home advantage, which works in their favour They don't have to deal with all the things, that make these small teams often times very competitive on that given day.