Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread

[Captain Corporate]

 Well corona certainly did caused teams to not spend too much money, but when you get someone like Leroy Sane who you can grab for 50 million, you take that offer. Not because you are super rich or you can afford to or anything, even if you can't afford to do something like that, you take out a loan from a bank who would lend you that kind of money and get Leroy Sane and then pay that loan back in years.

 There are some players who can change the teams to a whole new level, Leroy Sane is one of those players, you can put him in paderborn and he would probably keep that team in the league, he is not messi, he is not ronaldo, hell he is not lewandowski, but he would change bayern to a whole new level nonetheless. So that is why corona did affected teams, but not on transfer like these.

[1714512203]

1714512203

[1714512203]

1714512203

[1714512203]

1714512203

[tyKiwanuka]

Two picks for season finale in Dritte Liga on Saturday.


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/standings/OlUUjkDi/nmi3z2iQ/#table;overall

Bayern II is not eligible for promotion, Braunschweig is through to 2. Bundesliga with todays win. 3rd place will go to 2. Bundesliga as well and 4th place will go into playoffs against Nürnberg.

The matchups for last round:

Munich 1860 - Ingolstadt
Duisburg - Unterhaching
Chemnitz - Rostock
(Würzburg - Halle)

Munich 1860 needs a win against Ingolstadt, to keep their hopes alive.
Ingolstadt could live with a draw and secure 4th place, if both Duisburg/Rostock don't win. But Ingolstadt could overtake Würzburg with a win, if they lose against Halle at home (unlikely, but we have seen it all).
It's very likely that either of Duisburg/Rostock win, so Ingolstadt needs a win as well in the end. They can't just play for a draw here and will have to push for a win, just like 1860 has to do.

Rostock needs to hope, that Ingolstadt doesn't win at 1860, win their own game and work on their goal differential, in case Duisburg wins as well. Rostock has +13, while Duisburg has +16, so Rostock needs to win with big margin.
Rostock's opponent Chemnitz themselves need all 3 points as well, since this is the only possibility to avoid relegation. And they need to win with big margin as well, because if Zwickau only draws at Mannheim, goal differential will be the decider. Zwickau has -5 and Chemnitz has -8, so Chemnitz has to win with at least 3 goals difference while scoring a lot (a 7-4+ would do the trick, else they would have to win with 4 goals difference).
Both teams will have to push a lot in this game and I expect a crazy one.

In these two matches, we have 4 teams that have to push for 90 minutes and thus I am betting both games to go over 2.5 at fantastic odds.

1860 - Ingolstadt over 2.5 @1.9+
Chemnitz - Rostock over 2.5 @2.0+

I made a parlay with those two for odds around 3.85, stake 7/10.

[el kaka22]

Maybe one of the reasons why he wasn't really that much loved by the whole world (well he is loved, just not more) is the fact that Bayern never had a huge champions league victory? They never won it while he was there.

Lewa is at a level where he is already regarded as high as possible for anyone who is not Messi or Ronaldo, in order for him to be considered like Ronaldo or Messi he had to win something in Europe and he failed that, because of this I think he was always "best player in Bundesliga" and never "one of the best playing now" level. That is not bad neither, dude is basically scoring on any team he wants on Bundesliga and one of the biggest reasons why Bayern is dominating the league as well, he just needed recognition in Europe but I doubt it really matters to him that much.

[Trofo]

1860 - Ingolstadt over 2.5 @1.9+
Chemnitz - Rostock over 2.5 @2.0+

I made a parlay with those two for odds around 3.85, stake 7/10.

Very nice analysis as usual. Will probably follow your picks and do it soon. It seems to me this could be those type of games when odds start to fall more and more as the games come near so the value will not be nearly as high when Saturday comes.

Just one question to make informed decision on size of my stake. If you follow German 3rd league, what is your general feel about the league. For instance Island 2nd league and Netherlands 2nd league are leagues where lots of goals are scored anyway. Italy second league is much more tactical and low scoring while totally rigged, if both teams can profit with a draw, the game will always end as draw and odds for draws can drop as low as 1.4 

[snipie]

Since I am just following first leagues it is the first time learning that reserve teams have a maximum permissible level which is 3.Bundesliga. Poor Bayern II.
Reminder boys, tomorrow Bremen vs Heidenheim 

[bct_ail]

Reminder boys, tomorrow Bremen vs Heidenheim 

I'm eager to see that game. Haven't got any idea how both teams are gonna play. Relegation will be a completely different game than a normal league game. And this one without spectators will be completely different. I am curious.

[tyKiwanuka]

Very nice analysis as usual. (...) It seems to me this could be those type of games when odds start to fall more and more as the games come near so the value will not be nearly as high when Saturday comes.

Thanks Tbh I have no idea how the bookmakers came up with these odds for the totals. Last round in all german leagues normally have rather low-ish odds for o/u 2.5. In round 34 of 1.&2. Bundesliga you could barely find any over 2.5 odds of more than 1.60. And in 1860/Rostock games you have clear indicators for all 4 teams needing to push right from the beginning, so not sure, why these odds are so high - I will probably know after the games have finished I can only imagine that odds compilers just bot-like used their algorithms without looking at the table and/or not knowing about Bayern II not being eligible to promote (but this is well known and no secret). I don't expect the odds to drop a lot - they rarely do with over/under - but I think both odds have very good value, so I placed my bet already. But I will add to my stake inplay, if there are no early goals and good opportunities arise in the latter stages of the games and the teams open up even more and go all-in.

Just one question to make informed decision on size of my stake. If you follow German 3rd league, what is your general feel about the league. For instance Island 2nd league and Netherlands 2nd league are leagues where lots of goals are scored anyway. Italy second league is much more tactical and low scoring while totally rigged, if both teams can profit with a draw, the game will always end as draw and odds for draws can drop as low as 1.4  

Dritte Liga is certainly not like ISL2 or NED2, but also not like ITA2 or FRA2, it's something inbetween. Here are the stats for leagues 1-3 in Germany (taken from SoccerStats):

1. Bundesliga, over 2.5: 65.0%
2. Bundesliga, over 2,5: 53.9%
Dritte Liga, over 2,5: 57.6%

And for comparison:

NED2: 63.4%
ITA2: 42.9%
FRA2: 38.9%

Lets check the o/u for Rostock, Chemnitz, Ingolstadt and 1860:


Source: https://www.soccerstats.com/trends.asp?league=germany3

So even all of these teams are generally not super high scoring, they do play more over than under, apart from Rostock, who are close. Just adding those % like a moron, 1860 - Ingolstadt has 58% (odds 1.72) of going over and Chemnitz - Rostock has 53% (odds 1.88). Now take into account the circumstances, where a draw isn't enough for all of the teams - only Ingolstadt could maybe live with a draw, if everything falls into place for them - and I think these odds for over 2.5 are totally wrong.

I put 7/10 as stake, since I see very good value. You can maybe place a smaller bet now, to satisfy parts of your FOMO^^ and sleep it over one night, follow the odds movement and add to your stake Friday/Saturday, depending on your gut feeling. Or wait for inplay and jump in then with more money.

Over/under 2.5 is always more of a gamble in the end, so I would recommend to not overstake. Lets say Ingolstadt leads 3-0 and Zwickau leads 3-0 at Mannheim, then there is no need for Rostock/Chemnitz to push anymore, since Rostock can't get promoted no more and Chemnitz is relegated.

[Trofo]

Thanks Smiley Tbh I have no idea how the bookmakers came up with these odds for the totals.

I put 7/10 as stake, since I see very good value. You can maybe place a smaller bet now, to satisfy parts of your FOMO^^ and sleep it over one night, follow the odds movement and add to your stake Friday/Saturday, depending on your gut feeling. Or wait for inplay and jump in then with more money.

Over/under 2.5 is always more of a gamble in the end, so I would recommend to not overstake. Lets say Ingolstadt leads 3-0 and Zwickau leads 3-0 at Mannheim, then there is no need for Rostock/Chemnitz to push anymore, since Rostock can't get promoted no more and Chemnitz is relegated.

You didn't need to pull out all that research just for my sake Just wanted a general feel about the league which you already knew in your hart if you bet on the league often. Big thanks, you more than delivered.

Bookmakers make the odds in automatic way as per history of the league and history of the clubs, home and away games are taken into account heavily and recent form a little less. There is other factors as well I am sure. Specific stuff like the fact that Bayern II can't promote don't enter in this calculations unless somebody gives it a manual tweak which doesn't happen so often. They just let the odds drop when lots of money got wagered on one outcome. There are many such coefficients which are than weighted differently between odds providers. League coefficient is weighted quite heavily and that is why all the games in some leagues have low odds and vice versa. Very good opportunity to exploit this was both to score market in Serie A this season. I made a nice sum of money taking both to score games with odds @1.8, especially on Juve, Cagliari and some other teams that were much more tight in the past. This season Serie A was much more open than last few years in general.

Over/Under don't drop so much because majority of people bet on ML, you can also see that much higher amount of people make bets on double chance than Asian handicaps. For instance on Sportsbet same market in Asian handicap will almost always have higher odds than double chance.

No FOMO, if what you wrote is true and I believe it is, the odds will drop for about 10% wait for Saturday and see I am taking them now or waiting for live play.

Good thing about over market is that if teams don't have anything to play for they often just forget about defense and we have open game, or they break totally and ship in a few goals. Woks for us either way. I am taking the bets.

All above is just informed speculation based more on experience than on insider information but I am good at things like that and I am quite confident that my theory holds water or at least odds behave in a way that doesn't deny my theory which is enough.

[Naida_BR]

Lewandowski is maybe the best striker right now.
He is underrated because he is a player that grew in Bundesliga. If he was in another league such as Premier League or La Liga then all people was going to talk about him.

That's true partially. Many good players "lost" their performance once they moved from a league to another, some of them recover fast and other may take much more time or even doesn't progress at all.
CR7 in his first games and overall skill was by far better in La Liga than Serie A. +/- Neimar and Kroos, E. hazard +++ and many other names that I forgot.

Cavani was another example, same as Lewandowski.
He was one of the top and most promising strikers in the world when he was at Napoli, but then he moved and he lost his brightness. Hopefully, Lewandowski didn't force a move.

[cygan]

Reminder boys, tomorrow Bremen vs Heidenheim 

I'm eager to see that game. Haven't got any idea how both teams are gonna play. Relegation will be a completely different game than a normal league game. And this one without spectators will be completely different. I am curious.

and that's why i say this will be a clear win for werder bremen this evening.
my desired result would be 4:0  

[cryptofrka]

I just Googled Heidenheim's roster and I have to admit I never heard of any of their players. It is quite weird because I watch a lot of football and I play FIFA, FM and all kinds of football games.
They have only 1 foreign player (Austrian) and neither one of their German players was ever capped for the German national team. Few of them had occasional U-19 or U-20 appearances.

Werder must be considered a strong favorite for this game, their team is far from great but should still be winning these kind of games easily.

[tyKiwanuka]

I just Googled Heidenheim's roster and I have to admit I never heard of any of their players. (...)
They have only 1 foreign player (Austrian) and neither one of their German players was ever capped for the German national team. Few of them had occasional U-19 or U-20 appearances.

Heidenheim is super small club from a 50k town in the middle between Stuttgart, Nürnberg, Munich/Augsburg. Just 15 years ago they were still playing in 6th division and worked their way up from there; promoting to 2. Bundesliga only some years ago. They are a low-profile club doing solid work and having a very good coach. They live by a strong team chemistry and always play very disciplined. None of their players have the quality to play in Bundesliga, let alone in german national team. Some years ago their captain Schnatterer had the quality to play Bundesliga, but he decided to stay in Heidenheim and is a legend there. And I doubt he would have worked in Bundesliga, he is just a Heidenheim guy and would fail at any other team imo, because he wouldn't feel comfortable there.
Having a player from 2. Bundesliga playing in german NT is a very rare event. The last one was Jonas Hector iirc, who stayed at Cologne, when they relegated, but I can't remember another player.

I think it won't be easy for Werder today, because Heidenheim can be a pain the ass to play against. You still have this horrible home record from Werder, but they should be on a high after last weekends miracle. Heidenheim is poor in away games and I expect them to just sit back today and being happy with a 0-0 (or any scoring draw as well). In the end Werder should win this today all things considered, but I can't imagine it being a big win, something like 1-0/2-0/2-1 seems likely.

[casperBGD]

I think it won't be easy for Werder today, because Heidenheim can be a pain the ass to play against. You still have this horrible home record from Werder, but they should be on a high after last weekends miracle. Heidenheim is poor in away games and I expect them to just sit back today and being happy with a 0-0 (or any scoring draw as well). In the end Werder should win this today all things considered, but I can't imagine it being a big win, something like 1-0/2-0/2-1 seems likely.

good explanation, with a lot of details, although i do not expect for Werder to win today (would like it, so will skip gambling on it, but do not believe that they will)

last week miracle is probably still in their heads, and will be for app. 15 minutes at the start of the match, but disciplined team as Heidenheim should avoid conceiving goal at the very beginning and after that, it is their advantage, and it could end up 0:1 at the end, or goalless

what is not in Heidenheim favor is a score with top teams in 2. Bundesliga, especially away, where they lost almost all, and bad result in Pokal match, where they conceived four goals in Bremen, but this match should be completely different

[Darkoth89]

[...]
None of their players have the quality to play in Bundesliga, let alone in german national team.

That's a bit exaggerated imho. Dorsch, for example, I am pretty sure many clubs from the first league would be happy to have him in their team. So a good chance we see him in the first league next season, one way or the other.
But yeah, on paper Heidenheims team shouldn't be a problem for Werder. The market value (according to Transfermarkt.com of Bremens Rashica alone is already way higher than the total market value of all Heidenheim players combined (whether these values are correct or make sense is another topic).

I think it won't be easy for Werder today, because Heidenheim can be a pain the ass to play against. You still have this horrible home record from Werder, but they should be on a high after last weekends miracle. Heidenheim is poor in away games and I expect them to just sit back today and being happy with a 0-0 (or any scoring draw as well). In the end Werder should win this today all things considered, but I can't imagine it being a big win, something like 1-0/2-0/2-1 seems likely.

Here I totally agree with you. Of course, since the introduction of the relegation playoffs in 2009 the club from the first league came out on top in 8 out of 11 times but Bremen must not make the mistake and think these two matches are easy wins. When Stuttgart had to play vs Union Berlin in last years relegation playoffs, most people thought that it's gonna be a free ticket for Stuttgart, too. We all know how it ended.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, on a good day Heidenheim is capable to annoy even the big Bayern Munich (they lost 4-5 vs Bayern in the DFB Pokal in 2019). And I am sure they won't do Bremen the favour and make it as easy to score against them as Koln did last Saturday. So a 1-0 or even a 2-0 would be a great result in this match for Bremen, especially given their performance in home games.

[tyKiwanuka]

That's a bit exaggerated imho.

Hehe, of course it is. You always have to exaggerate a bit when discussing football to trigger emotions and discussions

Heidenheim actually have some players in their roster, that did already play in Bundesliga before. Kleindienst played in Bundesliga for Freiburg, Feick for Cottbus, Multhaup for Ingolstadt, Theuerkauf for Braunschweig and there might be more, but it's all small clubs and they weren't impact players there. They do have some talented youngsters like Dorsch whom you mentioned, but also David Otto and yes, we could see them in Bundesliga in the future. All in all their roster is above average for 2. Bundesliga standards, but not more. They are profiting a lot from so many clubs being run poorly (Bochum, St. Pauli, Hannover, Nürnberg), while they themselves are super solid and don't have any pressure from media, fans etc.

If they were to promote, they won't invest big time and will try to stay in Bundesliga with what they have right now; maybe adding an experienced player here and there (like Union did with Gentner, Subotic). Nevertheless, they will relegate after one season again, but I hope they will just stay in 2. Bundesliga where they belong in the end as of now.

[efialtis]

All of my friends are Werder supporters and we will be watching together tonight, along with some nice Barbecue and lots of BECKS beer - that beer thing is something people from Bremen will understand.

I believe we will see a relatively easy victory tonight for the home team - experience matters and I consider taking the Werder -1 Asian HC.

[Lafu]

My bet goes for sure for Werder Bremen against Heidenheim guess Werder will be win that match with 3:1.

Tomorrow the next relegation match in the second League with Nürnberg is coming

All matches you can watch at Amazon Prime !

And it looks like the transfer for Sane is fix now to Bayern Munich !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AzG8BqBLdE

[tomahawk9]

All of my friends are Werder supporters and we will be watching together tonight, along with some nice Barbecue and lots of BECKS beer - that beer thing is something people from Bremen will understand.

bbq and beer + friends...sounds like it's gonna be a good time alright 

My bet goes for sure for Werder Bremen against Heidenheim guess Werder will be win that match with 3:1.

what's your ticket? a Bremen ML is @1.49 odds right now, but a 3-1 correct score is @12.00 odds

i've added Bremen to WIN to a small bet 3fold acca. I think it's gonna be a blowout today, Bremen looked really good vs. Koln last saturday, no way they're gonna choke vs. Heidenheim, right?

[casperBGD]

as expected, goalless at the moment on Weser, will see what second half will bring, but do not expect goal from Werder, would not bet on Heidenheim, but do expect 0:0 or 0:1 at the end, it is pretty boring match up to this point, but that could be expected, since the match is really important for both teams

[tyKiwanuka]

Well, Heidenheim was the expected annoying opponent for Werder. Good defensive performance, while always keeping Werder busy with counter-attacks. Not sure for whom this is a better result in the end, since Werder does better away and a scoring draw will be enough for them in 2nd leg. Heidenheim was 11-4-2 at home, which made them second best home team in 2. Bundesliga. Against Bielefeld they played 0-0, Stuttgart 2-2 and beat Hamburg 2-1 with a goal in the final seconds.

Odds for Monday: Heidenheim - Bremen 3.14 3.56 2.24. I think Werder is too low considering Heidenheim lost only two games at home all season (in the very beginning of the season even). If there is a draw late in the game with goals scored, Heidenheim has to open up and Werder could score on a counter-attack, but 1X looks to have some value at this point pre-match.