Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jeffryluna]

This downward trend of the BTC price is due to the news / or blogs about segwit2x coming pretty soon? Or this is a very healthy dip-- only because people are converting BTC to fiat. I'm doubting myself a bit that it's a healthy dip, kind of torn between just spending the BTC now or HODL and wait for the predictions I'm seeing ont his thread. I do hope to atleast see it @17-19k again. before the year ends.

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[HairyMaclairy]

The best way to fight back is to take the profits back from the whales. The war will end as soon as the war stops being profitable, just like every other war. 

I sure hope the BCH FUD stops soon, getting really tired of it.

Bitcoin is losing hash power at the moment.  What does that mean?  It means the whales are signaling. Listen to their signals and learn to interpret them.  Hash power down, means mem pool filling. Mem pool filling is troll food.  Troll food is FUD.  So more FUD is coming soon.

We all know a fork is coming at block 501451.  So double FUD.  

Learn to read the whales’ signals and front run their trades. Make them do the heavy work of moving the markets and you take the profit. This hurts them and helps you.  It also helps Bitcoin.  

[JayJuanGee]

Just came to say Hi and to share something euphoric about the future

What the hell happened to you, since about May-ish?

I have read many speculations about you no longer being with us?

Another extreme dear brother showing up, my dear JJG.

Have been drowning into the crypto twitter ocean and IRL issues.

But finally back and gave our bullish thread a push  

I've missed you all brother, hopefully I won't fade away again  

EXACTAMENTE!!!

Even though each of us have our differing styles, your style has been missed - yet it seems a bit extreme, too, of you, to post 2-10 bullish media articles per day for several months (and spoil many of us), and then completely disaparecer for 6 months -ish.

In any event, I am glad to see you back, and I look forward to posts and your perspective.

O..k..  One other point that I would like to make is that I had frequently asserted that you were much more bullish than me regarding short term BTC price performance - especially if we look back to our interactive posts in the late 2015 time frame and even the ones in the mid-to-late 2016 time frame.  So, it seems that you were much closer in your assessment than me, because current BTC prices are running about 3x to 4x higher than my most likely bullish assessments of those times.

I confess my brother, I'm an extremist.

I'm not a moderate person and an insane risk taker, so let it be whatever it meant to be.

I did you miss you a lot my dear brother and missed our talks a lot and here they are back again

My new targets are as follows, and you are free to call me an insane/crazy person, I know I'm mentally mad :

2018 will end at $100,000
2020 will end at $1,000,000

We are just warming up and we ain't seen anything yet, wait to witness 2018, it's will be a mind-blowing year.

I am going to call you insane/crazy, perhaps with a couple of conditions.  First condition:  What you are saying does not seem to be out of the range of contemplation - however, each of those numbers under those time lines seem like  long shots - however, if the first one is met, then the second one would become more probable.  Second condition:  I hope that you are careful in terms of your own investment - because without revealing details, it seems to me that you should have a lot of value right now, whether you hold that value in crypto or fiat or alts or some combination, so in that regard, I hope that you are hedging what I perceive to be (and you seem to admit) your extreme thoughts.  hahahaha.. you and MacAfee...   I just realized ---- John, is that you?  

Well, what I've figured from living on this planet for 27 years that all of my life is based on "bets" and not a normal bets, it's a "take-all-lose-all" bets as I've a major issue in my personality called "Perfection!!!!"

Regarding cryptocurriences, I guess I've said it before, I'm "all-in".

So let it be what is was destinated to be, I'm here for the long haul and for the perfect me.

Actually I din't see those number long shots.

These year we did nearly a 20x, it we make another 20x, we will end 2018 at $400,000, so can't end at $100,000 ?

2018 will the start of the real fireworks.

I suppose that if your self-assessment of your perspective and methodology seem to be working out pretty good for you overall, then it would be difficult to change, and as you suggest, there would likely not be any need to change a system that is working and does not seem to be broken.

I will admit that the BTC price performance of about the past 4 months has been about 3x to 4x more bullish than amongst my most bullish of perspectives, in the early to mid part of 2017 and previously.  Accordingly, such bullish performance has caused me to tweak my BTC expectations even further upwards.  

Personally, I don't think that my tweaking of my BTC price expectations further upwards is some kind of pie in the sky getting caught up in hoopla, but instead is based on a kind of solid evidence based reassessment of the situation based on such evidence.  I surely doubt that we are at the top of the current trend, and we will be testing the resistance of ATH price points in the near future (within 1 week to 3 months); however, I still think that another 20x is a bit much to expect in the coming year or so>  [edited per Fakhoury comment]  

Think about it Fakhoury, we should not be measuring BTC performance merely within the bounds of our current calendar year, but we should be considering the whole upwards price performance, which is largely a more than two year phenomenon and a bouncing off of support that was largely in the mid $200s from 2015.  So, o.k.  If we look at $250-ish as the start off point, then we have a bit more than a 78x price increase from $250 to $19666.  Furthermore, we have a bit of an increasing exponential curve, especially since about August 2017, yet at the same time, we have a lot of bullish fundamentals, including Segwit and including increased financialization and including increasing world adoption, so much better liquidity, but even with all of these positive things going on in bitcoin, buying pressure still has to keep up with the exponential increases in price, so yeah, I can see another 65% to 7x price increase in the coming year (I mean beyond our current ATH of $19666); however, I have a bit more difficult time appreciating any kind of meaningful likelihood of another 20x within about the next year.  That would be fucking amazing, and not completely impossible from my perspective, but surely on the low end of probabilities, perhaps less than 2% in my current thinking... but hey, call me a conservative charlie.      

[TERA2]

I think Friday was catalyzed by some kind of failure with the Bitfinex trading engine so it's hard to match that kind of momentum without that still going on.

That doesn't make much sense.

How so exactly?

He wants to avoid the elephant in the room that doesn’t support his argument.

FWIW he’s a good poster and I respect him but I think he’s running away from the Friday issue. And that is we took a beating on Friday but the market didn’t blink.

How is he a good poster, he failed every single prediction
At least jbreher doesn't make predictions like that, his posts are far more helpful

I think you're ignoring the 50% of predictions I dont fail. Not that 50/50 are good predictions, but its not failing every prediction.

[JayJuanGee]

Is there still a chance bitcoin breaks ath before the new year? Is CME, CBOE and other old financial company traders trying to kill bitcoin's growth slowly?

Perhaps 38.6317928%-ish?  hahahahaha.... more conservative charlie from me?

[ragnar0k]

and worst of all speaking as the core team is the "CEO" of bitcoin.

Bitcoin was made by developers, and for developers. You used a developer (Satoshi) as an example to shill for a coin where non-developers speak for the community. Great step to politicize cryptos! Because developers are useless and they need a manager... Typical corporate mentality

The core team, unlike the tree or two people calling the shots for bcash, are hundreds of developers working for *free* vs just a handful. You speak in total disrespect of opensource as such...

[Lopumbo]

The core team, unlike the tree or two people calling the shots for bcash, are hundreds of developers working for *free* vs just a handful. You speak in total disrespect of opensource as such...

Thats where you're wrong kiddo. Look at the github and filter those developers which did more than 1 commit and did not just changed a typo...you're left with basically 5-10 persons

[realr0ach]

The core team, unlike the tree or two people calling the shots for bcash, are hundreds of developers working for *free* vs just a handful. You speak in total disrespect of opensource as such...

Thats where you're wrong kiddo. Look at the github and filter those developers which did more than 1 commit and did not just changed a type...you're left with basically 5-10 persons

Most non-noobs know that Wladimir does all the heavy lifting of bitcoin but keeps virtually no public face or comments about any important issues.  I do not like this arrangement as he should be forced to comment on issues like decentralization instead of just PRETENDING a completely centralized system is decentralized.  The only person with even a fraction of power in bitcoin that has made ANY skeptical comment about it's fundamentals in the last several years is Peter Todd.  Everyone else is just like "YES, LET'S PUMP AND DUMP THIS CENTRALIZED GOVT TRACKING SYSTEM TO THE MOON".

[pops87]

There's only one bitcoin, fool. And it sure isn't Bcash.

Well, it sure as shit isn't BCore either in the current state.    

$43 dollar fees are NOT the future... you're the fool if you believe so.

10% segwit adoption is the reality and LN coming up.

[d_eddie]

The core team, unlike the tree or two people calling the shots for bcash, are hundreds of developers working for *free* vs just a handful. You speak in total disrespect of opensource as such...

Thats where you're wrong kiddo. Look at the github and filter those developers which did more than 1 commit and did not just changed a typo...you're left with basically 5-10 persons

And you, try and take a look at the other github.

[HairyMaclairy]

The core team, unlike the tree or two people calling the shots for bcash, are hundreds of developers working for *free* vs just a handful. You speak in total disrespect of opensource as such...

Thats where you're wrong kiddo. Look at the github and filter those developers which did more than 1 commit and did not just changed a typo...you're left with basically 5-10 persons

There are only about 5 people with commit rights to Bitcoin, with hundreds of developers contributing.

The difference is Bitcoin has hundreds of thousands of nodes that enforce consensus. A bad commit will go nowhere and the system will continue to run perfectly while the bad actor has his commit rights removed.

Bcash is controlled by a single person and has almost zero independent nodes.   It is wholly centralized and can be taken out by the Chinese government at any moment.  I don’t know how you sleep at night knowing the Chinese government can whisk away your coins any time it pleases. 

[realr0ach]

I don’t know how you sleep at night knowing the Chinese government can whisk away your coins any time it pleases.  

Stop shilling, that's BOTH BTC and BCH chains, or any sha256d chain for these completely centralized systems.

[JayJuanGee]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

Ridiculous. 

That is the narrative that you BIGBLOCKER nut jobs wish people believe while you are engaged in ongoing attacks of the network to cause the higher fees and slower transaction times.

[ragnar0k]

The core team, unlike the tree or two people calling the shots for bcash, are hundreds of developers working for *free* vs just a handful. You speak in total disrespect of opensource as such...

Thats where you're wrong kiddo. Look at the github and filter those developers which did more than 1 commit and did not just changed a typo...you're left with basically 5-10 persons

You just dig your own grave here...
Here are the btc contributors:
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/graphs/contributors
...And here the bch contributors:
https://github.com/Bitcoin-ABC/bitcoin-abc/graphs/contributors

You might notice that the top contributors are taken over from BTC... That is because they forked.
I can't be arsed to go through which contributor changed, but seems pretty obvious to me that BCH is based mostly on the code written by "incompetent" BTC developers and very little code I can see written by the BCH team...

[orpington]

You forkers are nuttier than a fruit cake. Block space is a resource. You can't just... um... double it.

DING DONG!  The Fork is dead!

Which old fork?

Every damn fork!

DING DONG!  The stupid forks are dead!



Above, right, BlindMayorBitcorn

dude, don't miss out on the ATH game!

[HairyMaclairy]

I don’t know how you sleep at night knowing the Chinese government can whisk away your coins any time it pleases.  

Stop shilling, that's BOTH BTC and BCH chains, or any sha256d chain for these completely centralized systems.

Wrong.  We can live without the Chinese. I run my own full node and can mine if I need to.  The difficulty adjustment would take awhile but we would do fine.

The difference  is that Bcash ARE the Chinese.  

[Lopumbo]

The core team, unlike the tree or two people calling the shots for bcash, are hundreds of developers working for *free* vs just a handful. You speak in total disrespect of opensource as such...

Thats where you're wrong kiddo. Look at the github and filter those developers which did more than 1 commit and did not just changed a typo...you're left with basically 5-10 persons

You just dig your own grave here...
Here are the btc contributors:
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/graphs/contributors
...And here the bch contributors:
https://github.com/Bitcoin-ABC/bitcoin-abc/graphs/contributors

You might notice that the top contributors are taken over from BTC... That is because they forked.
I can't be arsed to go through which contributor changed, but seems pretty obvious to me that BCH is based mostly on the code written by "incompetent" BTC developers and very little code I can see written by the BCH team...

I have no idea why you guys keep on comparing BTC/BCH like a neverending narrative
I just said, that you have 5-10 developers on core and that the security i.e. mining is as centralized as it can get. Get over it. I don't care about BCH.

[ragnar0k]

You just dig your own grave here...
Here are the btc contributors:
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/graphs/contributors
...And here the bch contributors:
https://github.com/Bitcoin-ABC/bitcoin-abc/graphs/contributors

You might notice that the top contributors are taken over from BTC... That is because they forked.
I can't be arsed to go through which contributor changed, but seems pretty obvious to me that BCH is based mostly on the code written by "incompetent" BTC developers and very little code I can see written by the BCH team...

I have no idea why you guys keep on comparing BTC/BCH like a neverending narrative
I just said, that you have 5-10 developers on core and that the security i.e. mining is as centralized as it can get. Get over it. I don't care about BCH.

Your point is wrong regardless - just open the contributions page and you'll notice that there is plenty of contributors with more than 500 changes.
The only fact that all those devs take the time to go through the code and change even a typo makes it more secure as it has more eyes on it.

[TERA2]

I have to admit my calls about altcoins are much better than my calls about usd. You could made tremendous profits listening to every one of my altcoins calls including emc, bch at 0.07, and doge when it was still at 20 sat.

[JayJuanGee]

Come on baby, just another 1k up and I can still without taking a loss. Come on bitcoin, be good to me.

Yeah, they painted that fake breakout pretty good.  A lot of folks on the wrong side of that.

Yea, it was really obvious, looking back. This is what I get for trying to actively trade while not sitting at my pc monitoring things. Sure I can trade on stamp from my phone, but it's not a good idea.

Frequently, I get nervous if there is a lot going on to make any trade attempts from my phone.  In those high action scenarios, it is nice to be able to look at several windows at once and even have multiple devices in order to attempt to appreciate some of the dynamics - and even when you can kind of get an appreciation for what is going on, it still can be quite uncertain whether any kind of tweak to a preestablish system would be likely to be more profitable than just sticking with the previous plan (and whatever perceived flaws might be retrospectively appreciated within such previous plan).