Bitcoin Forum
October 09, 2024, 11:29:29 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 28.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.9%)
7/28 - 11 (9.9%)
8/4 - 16 (14.4%)
8/11 - 7 (6.3%)
8/18 - 6 (5.4%)
8/25 - 8 (7.2%)
After August - 62 (55.9%)
Total Voters: 111

Pages: « 1 ... 18973 18974 18975 18976 18977 18978 18979 18980 18981 18982 18983 18984 18985 18986 18987 18988 18989 18990 18991 18992 18993 18994 18995 18996 18997 18998 18999 19000 19001 19002 19003 19004 19005 19006 19007 19008 19009 19010 19011 19012 19013 19014 19015 19016 19017 19018 19019 19020 19021 19022 [19023] 19024 19025 19026 19027 19028 19029 19030 19031 19032 19033 19034 19035 19036 19037 19038 19039 19040 19041 19042 19043 19044 19045 19046 19047 19048 19049 19050 19051 19052 19053 19054 19055 19056 19057 19058 19059 19060 19061 19062 19063 19064 19065 19066 19067 19068 19069 19070 19071 19072 19073 ... 33806 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26472172 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Torque
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3710
Merit: 5286



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:04:21 AM

Peter, I understand you are a big fan of BitcoinGold and a holder, too. And you wish for others to buy up the price. But this is not the way to go about it.

Again just like with BCash, Peter R. is a "big fan" of any forked coin that he got for free and didn't have to pay for directly out of his pocket.

Such a transparent shill that guy.  Roll Eyes
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2646
Merit: 3493



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:04:55 AM

Won't LN make payment processors like Bitpay totally obsolete? Smiley
But I think LN fees will be too high and the network too impractical to compete with on-chain payments on an uncrippled cryptocurrency.
<crystalball>
Incentives, Peter. With the entry cost of setting up a LN hub close to the simple funding of channels, my guess is there will be fierce competition on prices, some of which motivated by purely political, rather than financial, reasons (as in: I, for one, will start a hub as soon as it's practical). With such low-denominator price wars, and low ROI volunteers helping the net nearly for free (as full nodes already do today), I don't see how a high fee level could be sustained.
</crystalball>
BlindMayorBitcorn
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1260
Merit: 1116



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:07:26 AM

Peter, I understand you are a big fan of BitcoinGold and a holder, too. And you wish for others to buy up the price. But this is not the way to go about it.

Again just like with BCash, Peter R. is a "big fan" of any forked coin that he got for free and didn't have to pay for directly out of his pocket.

Such a transparent shill that guy.  Roll Eyes

And in the morning he'll be gone. We know his type.
cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3794
Merit: 5197


Maybe the Mars is the future!


View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:16:19 AM

Big Head and Shoulders... now little head and shoulders, but our dandruff is getting worse.
Peter R
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:19:00 AM

Won't LN make payment processors like Bitpay totally obsolete? Smiley
But I think LN fees will be too high and the network too impractical to compete with on-chain payments on an uncrippled cryptocurrency.
<crystalball>
Incentives, Peter. With the entry cost of setting up a LN hub close to the simple funding of channels, my guess is there will be fierce competition on prices, some of which motivated by purely political, rather than financial, reasons (as in: I, for one, will start a hub as soon as it's practical). With such low-denominator price wars, and low ROI volunteers helping the net nearly for free (as full nodes already do today), I don't see how a high fee level could be sustained.
</crystalball>


There was a really interesting talk on "Recharging Lightning" at Scaling Bitcoin Stanford by Aviv Zohar.  You can watch it here:

https://youtu.be/3pd6xHjLbhs?t=1h2m21s

He showed that LN fees in fact wouldn't be as low as many people expect because:

- channels eventually become depleted and need to be "recharged." This costs 1 on-chain fee which needs to be amortized over the life of the channel.

- the bigger you make the channel the longer it lasts before needing a "recharge," but then the more money you tie up.  There is an opportunity cost associated with this money tied up in a channel (modeled as an interest rate by Zohar).  

Zohar shows that the only way fees can be very very small, is if channels are very very richly funded OR if on-chain fees are also very small.  Neither of these conditions will hold however (well outside of a highly-centralized hub-and-spoke model where the hubs control all of the LN channels).
Peter R
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:23:52 AM

Peter, I understand you are a big fan of BitcoinGold and a holder, too. And you wish for others to buy up the price. But this is not the way to go about it.

Again just like with BCash, Peter R. is a "big fan" of any forked coin that he got for free and didn't have to pay for directly out of his pocket.

Such a transparent shill that guy.  Roll Eyes

Uh...BMB just made that up.  For God's sake, executables from the Bitcoin Gold github repo stole people's private keys!
Neo_Coin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1204
Merit: 293


"Be Your Own Bank"


View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:24:41 AM

BlindMayorBitcorn
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1260
Merit: 1116



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:25:51 AM

Peter, I understand you are a big fan of BitcoinGold and a holder, too. And you wish for others to buy up the price. But this is not the way to go about it.

Again just like with BCash, Peter R. is a "big fan" of any forked coin that he got for free and didn't have to pay for directly out of his pocket.

Such a transparent shill that guy.  Roll Eyes

Uh...BMB just made that up.  For God's sake, executables from the Bitcoin Gold github repo stole people's private keys!

Pft. You love it Grin
Peter R
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:38:03 AM

Peter, I understand you are a big fan of BitcoinGold and a holder, too. And you wish for others to buy up the price. But this is not the way to go about it.

Again just like with BCash, Peter R. is a "big fan" of any forked coin that he got for free and didn't have to pay for directly out of his pocket.

Such a transparent shill that guy.  Roll Eyes

Uh...BMB just made that up.  For God's sake, executables from the Bitcoin Gold github repo stole people's private keys!

Pft. You love it Grin

Oh fine, you caught me.

BlindMayorBitcorn
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1260
Merit: 1116



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:43:07 AM

Aha. That was fun. Now if we could just shoot right back up above $16k we can pretend it never happened.
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2646
Merit: 3493



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:43:16 AM

Won't LN make payment processors like Bitpay totally obsolete? Smiley
But I think LN fees will be too high and the network too impractical to compete with on-chain payments on an uncrippled cryptocurrency.
<crystalball>
Incentives, Peter. With the entry cost of setting up a LN hub close to the simple funding of channels, my guess is there will be fierce competition on prices, some of which motivated by purely political, rather than financial, reasons (as in: I, for one, will start a hub as soon as it's practical). With such low-denominator price wars, and low ROI volunteers helping the net nearly for free (as full nodes already do today), I don't see how a high fee level could be sustained.
</crystalball>


There was a really interesting talk on "Recharging Lightning" at Scaling Bitcoin Stanford by Aviv Zohar.  You can watch it here:

https://youtu.be/3pd6xHjLbhs?t=1h2m21s

He showed that LN fees in fact wouldn't be as low as many people expect because:

- channels eventually become depleted and need to be "recharged." This costs 1 on-chain fee which needs to be amortized over the life of the channel.
That's right. That's where CoinJoin-like refunding can help. Actually, I'm not 100% positive that system has been extended to deal with refunding yet, but it can and it will. You can then plan your re-fundings in advance, and pay a fraction of the fee if you are willing to wait.

- the bigger you make the channel the longer it lasts before needing a "recharge," but then the more money you tie up.  There is an opportunity cost associated with this money tied up in a channel (modeled as an interest rate by Zohar).  

Zohar shows that the only way fees can be very very small, is if channels are very very richly funded OR if on-chain fees are also very small.  Neither of these conditions will hold however (well outside of a highly-centralized hub-and-spoke model where the hubs control all of the LN channels).
I would much prefer a written source, but I do get the gist of the model, which seems indeed sensible. I would like to see some quantitative estimates on "very very richly founded". In principle, I agree that at first it could be so that you need a mammoth channel to deal with the occasional mammoth payment (or several squirrel payments), but once a system is in place that implements a kind of "packet switching" for payments, splitting them over different channels/routes, that problem will disappear. All it takes for the system to work in a quasi-steady state is the global I/O of the channels to nearly null out, which means little fresh btc need enter/exit the LN.

Alternatively, Average Joe - who runs a LN hub whose net capacity flow is negative (more BTC going out than in) - could send fiat or other low-fee cryptos into some LN-friendly exchange, which in turn would refill Joe's channel with positive capacity. It remains to be seen how the flow will be organized, although until salaries are paid in BTC I imagine normal user channels would send more than they receive on average. The net effect for Joe would be that of "buying moar", which for an enthusiastic LN volunteer (possibly politically motivated), sounds quite desirable.
Neo_Coin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1204
Merit: 293


"Be Your Own Bank"


View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:43:22 AM

Meanwhile, as BTC comes down this is the regular performance of ETH

TERA2
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 266
Merit: 222


Deb Rah Von Doom


View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:44:50 AM

im still waiting for ETH to correct to $50
Peter R
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 03:55:11 AM

I would much prefer a written source, but I do get the gist of the model, which seems indeed sensible. I would like to see some quantitative estimates on "very very richly founded". In principle, I agree that at first it could be so that you need a mammoth channel to deal with the occasional mammoth payment (or several squirrel payments), but once a system is in place that implements a kind of "packet switching" for payments, splitting them over different channels/routes, that problem will disappear. All it takes for the system to work in a quasi-steady state is the global I/O of the channels to nearly null out, which means little fresh btc need enter/exit the LN.

Alternatively, Average Joe - who runs a LN hub whose net capacity flow is negative (more BTC going out than in) - could send fiat or other low-fee cryptos into some LN-friendly exchange, which in turn would refill Joe's channel with positive capacity. It remains to be seen how the flow will be organized, although until salaries are paid in BTC I imagine normal user channels would send more than they receive on average. The net effect for Joe would be that of "buying moar", which for an enthusiastic LN volunteer (possibly politically motivated), sounds quite desirable.


Zohar modeled the flow of coins as a random walk.  For example, if a channel starts with Alice and Bob each holding $100 dollars, and if you imagine them routing through their channel N payments of $10 each, we'd expect the channel to be fully lopsided after routing 100 transactions ( [$100 / $10]^2 ).  If recharging the channel costs $30, then fees need to be at least $30 / 100 = $0.30 per transaction per hop.  If it takes 5 hops to route your payment, that is at least $1.50 in fees.  

Anyways, this is is the gist of Zohar's model.  
UnDerDoG81
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2179
Merit: 1201


View Profile
January 08, 2018, 04:14:08 AM

ETH grown 10000% in 1 year. Yet everybody is talking about a bitcoin bubble  Roll Eyes

It seems like ETH is unstoppable.
Arriemoller
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767


Cлaвa Укpaїнi!


View Profile
January 08, 2018, 04:14:42 AM

Dear Bitcorn,

Hi! I know, we don't talk much anymore. I'm semi-retired, and you're big time now. But listen.

We would all be really tickled if you'd stay above $16k.

Don't want to seem ungrateful, but like jojo says, we have mouths to feed. Food for thought.



Well, yes, actually, I am o.k. if we do not necessarily stay above $16k; however, we have kind of gotten used to this newly found wealth.


I am kind of suspecting that we have decent possibilities to stay within a $14k to $18k price range, yet I get the sense that due to the ongoing level of dispute about the actual price, there could be considerable movement that will include $11k to $20k, and so in that regard, we are kind of still in a sub $20k consolidation range that remains quite large. 

Certainly, I would like to break upwards, too, or even to stay within the range, whether the more solid range is $14k to $18k or whether such more solid range is $11k to $20k.  Either way, the bitcoin price battle has not stopped, and there remains disagreement.  Bears would really love to push BTC prices down, but they are running into too much support and buying support continues to catch up and to keep up.  In the end, we are going to break above $20k, it is just a matter whether that breaking up happens within a week or if it takes a few months to accomplish.

Breaking down seems less likely than breaking up, such as 43.71497%-ish, but UP still seems the more likely with about a  56.28503% chance.. in other words, currently, up remains more likely than down.  hahahahahaha    Wink


Can you show how you got that percentage conclusion. Thank you.

Love from,

Everyone on this thread. X



Oh shit, "we" are all fucked now, because even rjclarke is playing the royal "we" card.

Just to be clear,  those numbers were pulled out of a near total contextualized assessment of BTC market dynamics accounting for historical happenings, momentum and future probabilities of a variety of events that have not yet happened, including trade volume representations, knowns, unknowns and uncertainties.

In other words, I am employing a kind of amalgoratiated "speculation" within conformity of the WO tradition.     Tongue

Makes more sense, now?  Are "we" satisfied?  Smiley

So...from your ass?
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2646
Merit: 3493



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 04:22:43 AM
Last edit: January 08, 2018, 04:35:28 AM by d_eddie

Thanks for the summary, Peter!

Zohar modeled the flow of coins as a random walk.  For example, if a channel starts with Alice and Bob each holding $100 dollars, and if you imagine them routing through their channel N payments of $10 each, we'd expect the channel to be fully lopsided after routing 100 transactions ( [$100 / $10]^2 ).
It might actually be even worse than that if the transactions are not independent (and I assume they aren't, at least until the salary-in-BTC is a reasonable assumption).

Quote
If recharging the channel costs $30, then fees need to be at least $30 / 100 = $0.30 per transaction per hop.  If it takes 5 hops to route your payment, that is at least $1.50 in fees.  
However, increasing the number of channels per LN node makes the average unbalance converge to a normal (Gaussian) distribution: a bell centered on zero with a standard deviation (width) that grows with average transaction size.

The number of channels can be increased with limited (ideally null) additional financial exposure by making the channels smaller - if the hypothetical transaction slicer/packetizer is in place.

Besides, you're assuming funding a channel costs 15% of the channel capacity (30$ for 200$ capacity). I don't think this is realistic, as the blockchain related funding cost should only be a function of the number of utxos under SW regime. And it would definitely be a SW transaction.

I guess we'll see.
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2646
Merit: 3493



View Profile
January 08, 2018, 04:24:13 AM

Just to be clear,  those numbers were pulled out of a near total contextualized assessment of BTC market dynamics accounting for historical happenings, momentum and future probabilities of a variety of events that have not yet happened, including trade volume representations, knowns, unknowns and uncertainties.

In other words, I am employing a kind of amalgoratiated "speculation" within conformity of the WO tradition.     Tongue

So...from your ass?
How brutal, Arriemoller!  Roll Eyes
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 3864
Merit: 10945


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
January 08, 2018, 05:30:31 AM




I feel like gentleman.


This fucking thing, aka bitcoin, has performed beyond expectations, no?

We had a 78x increase in a bit more than 2 years (that is $250 to $19,666), and even with a 43% correction down from $19,666 to $11,060,


we are still floating largely in the 60x to 70x price appreciation arena, no (that is mostly between $15k and $17.5k)?


Relatively speaking, I feel a whole hell-of-a lot more "gentleman" than I did 2 years ago. 

That's for sure. 

Of course, the lower the price goes, the more disappointed that I will become because I will feel less rich than I had felt, but still, I still feel quite gentle and man...

Is it just me?  Am I be delusional?
HairyMaclairy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1414
Merit: 2174


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
January 08, 2018, 05:34:24 AM

You guys do realize that subchannels and sub-sub channels are a thing.  

And subchannels don’t have to transact in Satoshis.  They could be any token.  I’m going to launch a Hairy token for my Lightning Channel.  

Those are highly artificial restraints Zohar has applied to LN.  Which means his model isn’t worth the paper it’s not written on.

This is the problem with Peter.  He talks shit but sufficiently technical shit that many cannot see through it.
Pages: « 1 ... 18973 18974 18975 18976 18977 18978 18979 18980 18981 18982 18983 18984 18985 18986 18987 18988 18989 18990 18991 18992 18993 18994 18995 18996 18997 18998 18999 19000 19001 19002 19003 19004 19005 19006 19007 19008 19009 19010 19011 19012 19013 19014 19015 19016 19017 19018 19019 19020 19021 19022 [19023] 19024 19025 19026 19027 19028 19029 19030 19031 19032 19033 19034 19035 19036 19037 19038 19039 19040 19041 19042 19043 19044 19045 19046 19047 19048 19049 19050 19051 19052 19053 19054 19055 19056 19057 19058 19059 19060 19061 19062 19063 19064 19065 19066 19067 19068 19069 19070 19071 19072 19073 ... 33806 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!