Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I am currently 100% BTC on my BTC / USD account.  I will start selling down again as we hit $16k, to a low of 98% BTC.  Yes I am a hard bull because anyone not on the train when it leaves the station will be left behind.   Again.

I have Tether and Alts in my Alts account.  But that is firewalled from the BTC account and they don’t mix, other than taking profits in BTC which is a one way process. Those funds never come back to the Alts account.

Edit:  first sell at $15900 so no longer 100%....  

The problem from my perspective is that the weekend dip grossly underperformed. I was targeting buying back lower.  This is a strong bullish signal for the week ahead.

Don't get me wrong, because I am completely sympathetic for bullish inclinations, and it could be possible that we are merely using the terminology differently?


Or perhaps, I am just not as smart as you in terms of figuring out BTC price direction.


I know that you are proclaiming a pretty fucking strong indication that BTC prices are going UP from here - but really, how can you know for sure.  NO one knows... NOT even Roach.

What I am asking is what if prices go below $10k, then what you going to do?  If you have money to buy under $10k, then you are already NOT 100%, and we are merely using the term 100% differently.   

By the way, I have orders set all the way down to $3k; however, I think that the odds are quite low that any of them are going to be filled.. even filling orders below $10k is seeming like a pretty big stretch, but I still think that it remains a very prudent thing to prepare for the unexpected, no?     

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

$3k   

I guess crazier things have happened..

[JayJuanGee]

If you sell on the way up, you won’t have anything left when BTC hits $1 million.  Don’t be that guy.

I figure that I have a system that I am never going to run out of BTC.

I sell about 1% for every 10% rise in price, and then I end up buying a decent amount of it back, so I feel as if I am never going to run out. 

Further, I have been following a similar practice since $250.  In other words, I have been selling since $250, and one of my excel sheets project my sales several magnitudes in advance, and my projections seem to be fairly conservative because the BTC price tends to paue on its way up, so I tend to be able to buy back a decent portion of what I had sold which causes my projection to increase in the quantity of BTC that I have even in the worse case scenario - in which the price goes shooting straight up. 

It just appears that I have plenty of BTC no matter what, and right now my projection goes up to about $95k, and it appears that if the BTC price were to go shooting straight up to $95k without any pause (how likely is that?) i still would retain about 85% of my current BTC stash... So, really, it seems that I do not have any kind of running out of BTC problem, even in the most bullish of scenarios in which there is not volatility.  And, I would argue in that kind of case, then it might be a good idea to sell some BTC along the way because it seems to me that the most inevitable things in BTClandia is volatility and corrections... even if we cannot determine when, how much or how long, exactly. 

[JayJuanGee]

$3k   

I guess crazier things have happened..

I don't know what my problem is exactly, but if you recall the mid-September price correction down from $4,980 to $2,970?    I was on a trip, and I saw that BTC prices kept dropping, but I only had buy orders down to about $2,700, so I was beginning to get a bit worried as the BTC price got closer and closer to my last buy orders.

Of course, I had more money in the bank and stashed in various places that was more or less considered to be in my BTC investment portfolio; however, since I was on vacation, and the money was not already on exchanges, I was scrambling to consider what I was going to do, exactly, once the last of my buy orders fill, if it were to happen.  As we know the price did not go lower, but such situation caused me to create a better plan to attempt to preserve the amount of money that I had on exchanges that would already be preset to buy.

Actually, so currently, our late 2017 BTC price appreciation has helped me a lot in my staggering of my preparations.

I have also done something different on the sell side, so currently, I have sell orders set up to $35k.  Feels like the prudent thing for me  to do in order to prepare.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I'm not about to dismiss your laddering strategies, or the possibility of doom. Do what works. God speed, hombre.

[Voodah]

I don't want you to feel like I am dogging you, but on a personal level, I am feeling a bit heavy on the BTC side, because when we went up to $19,000s, I was around 88% BTC, but my bullish inclinations caused me to be kind of on a BTC accumulation mission because I had been selling so much BTC all the way up from $9k-ish and even before that, ever since our mid September correction down to $2,970.    Anyhow, by the time we reached $19,666, there was a bit of a sense that we were going to continue going up and to break above $20k (or at least at the time there seemed to have been decent odds to break above $20k, which kind of seems absurd now, and like we really did need to have this "pause" period).

It still doesn't seem as absurd to me judging from the local market (Greece). Given that we still have in effect capital controls, you can't just wire a big amount abroad and buy BTC. So internal demand has to be met by internal supply - and this "closed system" over here kind of reveals more of the dynamics compared to an open/international system.

From what I saw, internal supply dried up sharply after prices went 8-10k+ - in a way mirroring your own sells. This means that most people sold a lot of BTC in sub-10k prices and then there was very little to sell from willing sellers... meanwhile willing buyers wanted a lot of BTC, even up to 20k and beyond (they were paying a premium) yet they couldn't find it.

On the international scene, you have similar situations with exchanges being unable to handle new customers, imposing buying quotas, etc. In a way, the market is being bottlenecked by tens of intentional or unintentional obstacles - but the money keeps piling up.

I observed the exact same patterns happening down here in South America.

Internal supply dried quickly during the run up, and the usual 'Exchange + 3%' premium increased to 5 and then to 8%. It's starting to get better now but it was hard to find any btc at all during christmas and new year.

[Last of the V8s]

[kosse]

Like I said yeasterday the old mammoth is already faltering. We are about to go down big time!

[TERA2]

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

[Heater]

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

It's a sea of red - ETH down on the daily now.

[iDonnieCoffee]

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

It's a sea of red - ETH down on the daily now.

are there any particular news?

[ivomm]

Like I said yeasterday the old mammoth is already faltering. We are about to go down big time!

It is funny to see how poor alt trolls are crawling from their mouse holes each time BTC dips for an hour. What are you hoping for, noobs? That with 15$ buying ripple, iota or other scam that hardly will survive 2-3 years and win 10 mln $? Not gonna happen, I guarantee!

[Heater]

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

It's a sea of red - ETH down on the daily now.

are there any particular news?

No news. Pure emotion.

There was a few tweets about TRON reminding everyone that shitcoins are shit, but that's an everyday occurrence (that gets ignored).

Bitcoin will be the biggest winner at the end of the day. ETH will probably bounce back too.

[ghandi]

Long time i was certain Bitcoin is the way to go.

But to be honest, at least Cardano could shift things quite a bit, because they simply redesign and overhaul a lot of things Bitcoin and Ethereum weren't perfect.

Wouldn't be surprised if it's "the futer" (tm).

[selffish]

BTC downwards, but RSI is good... i dont understand

[STT]

Sea of red, have you traded crypto before today.    This is a muddy puddle.   My overall take on Bitcoin at least is a bullish pattern with pullback to some support.   It can develop further negatively but thats not apparent yet.

15200 is a long term bullish trend line.   It was recently seen to be a rough ceiling at end of last week.    Maybe more important is 15,713 as a fib line.  This is the same price that marked support after the ATH 19k and pullback so marks strength now, in significant terms the next rung down would be 13,073.  The gaps are so large because the rate of change was so rapid, thats volatility its uneven seas but par for the course.

[TERA2]

So much for the internet of money. Maybe next time.

[Arriemoller]

Did everyone here manage to claim/dump their superbitcoin and bitcoindiamond? I figured out the easiest method last night and got a few extra btc for dumping them

Please elaborate.

Yes, please describe "the easiest method" would save me a lot of time.

EDIT: I see you answered the question already, won't work for me I'm afraid. have a Android phone and my stash is not in a Trezor or any suck gizmo.

[Last of the V8s]

@AriDavidPaul
Funny line from a friend: my tax strategy is to hodl long enough that I outlast the IRS.
10:53 PM - 6 Jan 2018

-Jojo and Ari are mates
-Ari reads the WO thread and er extrapolates
-coincidence, convergent evolution, aliens etc

[luckygenough56]

spectre and meltdown comin, close your trading accounts before apocalypse