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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.9%)
7/28 - 11 (9.8%)
8/4 - 16 (14.3%)
8/11 - 7 (6.3%)
8/18 - 6 (5.4%)
8/25 - 8 (7.1%)
After August - 63 (56.3%)
Total Voters: 112

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26475524 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
explorer
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January 08, 2018, 07:05:45 AM

I never sell all and always make up whatever I sell by trading altcoins. I was down to like 15% of my coins in October and made it all back.

I would find that terrifying.  But you would do very well with the penny screamers.  It’s very different from trading BTC  and has required me to unlearn everything I know. 


I think the SSS plan makes a lot of sense.  Sell around 10 - 15% per doubling, on average. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Whatever happened to Risto, BTW?

Stress and lifestyle caught up, family life imploded, lost his shit.  Not sure if he got a new white coat, or if he got away.  I hope he pulls it back together - a lot harder to do when you're older!
Finski
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January 08, 2018, 07:10:59 AM

Whatever happened to Risto, BTW?

He was institutionalized due to bipolar before, IIRC. Now he's out of country so nobody's looking after him and he has by all likelihood relapsed into psychotic mania.
Micky25
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January 08, 2018, 07:14:34 AM

Did everyone here manage to claim/dump their superbitcoin and bitcoindiamond? I figured out the easiest method last night and got a few extra btc for dumping them Smiley

Please elaborate.
Peter R
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January 08, 2018, 07:18:04 AM

I never sell all and always make up whatever I sell by trading altcoins. I was down to like 15% of my coins in October and made it all back.

I would find that terrifying.  But you would do very well with the penny screamers.  It’s very different from trading BTC  and has required me to unlearn everything I know. 


I think the SSS plan makes a lot of sense.  Sell around 10 - 15% per doubling, on average. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Whatever happened to Risto, BTW?

Stress and lifestyle caught up, family life imploded, lost his shit.  Not sure if he got a new white coat, or if he got away.  I hope he pulls it back together - a lot harder to do when you're older!

That's too bad.  He definitely walked a bit more on the crazy-side of sane, but he had lots of really great insights.  I would have loved to have met him in person.
PoolMinor
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January 08, 2018, 07:36:27 AM

Did everyone here manage to claim/dump their superbitcoin and bitcoindiamond? I figured out the easiest method last night and got a few extra btc for dumping them Smiley

Please elaborate.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2702926.msg27635171#msg27635171
JayJuanGee
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January 08, 2018, 07:44:09 AM

No..your not delusional..perhaps slightly acrobatic if your avatar is any indication.  /s


Lol..and I just realized I F'ed up the meme...think its supposed to be "Gentlemen"...

Hahahahaha

Either way.  I think that "we" get your overall point.



JJG...I feel the same way...while I am not going to step out the the local lambo dealer(this week)...life is indeed much less stressful than pre-btc. My hodling are down 2000% from the ATH....but I am still over 24k+% overall....there is that.  Wink


Actually I gave some general numbers regarding BTC's performance since October 2015 - however, the performance of my BTC portfolio is not as high as the numbers that I had given for a few reasons.  1) I used $250 as the average price per BTC at the beginning of the bubble; however, my average price per BTC at that time was a bit over $500 and 2) I made a few mistakes that caused my performance to be quite a bit lower than if those mistakes had not been made.

Nonetheless, even if my percentage numbers do not seem to be as good as yours, I still am feeling really good and really relatively--speaking gentleman-ish..

It would take...well..im not sure what it would take really.

Perhaps, i have thought through some of this, "what would it take" scenarios, as compared with you?  Perhaps?

I was thinking that even if i were to paint the worst picture of my BTC related fuck-ups, my average price per BTC is still well below $1k per BTC.

And, let's say that BTC suffered from a very severe correction. Sure, anything is possible, and we have had nearly 90% corrections in the past, and even if some assume that 90% is not too likely, 70% is more likely. 

So, if this kind of major 90% price correction were to happen now, then that would put BTC prices in the $2k territory, and sure that would be bad, but if you have investment averages of less than $1k, then you are still at least 2x into profits, and perhaps you are even able to engage in some remedial and/or mitigating efforts too. 

Anyhow, I kind of believe that we are going up before we go down, so 90% corrections, if they happen, are going to end up at higher price points.... But let's see how this plays out.

Of course, if prices go below $1k, then a lot of us would become quite nervous, I am sure, and we would likely have to have some pretty serious shit, in order for any kind of below $1k scenario becomes reasonably likely to play out... even as a mere downspike.



I have been blessed with a good career and financial stability for many years, bitcoin has always been a hobby. But I am passionate about my hobby.

We could be on a similar page there; however, even though I had considered bitcoin to be an investment with my spare money, it had overtaken my other traditional investments quite a long time ago (maybe when BTC prices went above $2k, the value of my BTC holdings become a very substantial proportion of my overall investments)

That kind of reminds me that amongst my most bullish projections was that bitcoin would surge past $1,200, and then go into the $3k to $5k territory, and then get stuck back down in the $1,200k to $3k arena..and then maybe have another break out.  However, as the bullish scenario played out, we saw several substantial corrections along the way and we also saw some decent fundamentals being resolved, including the seeming resilience of bitcoin against the August b-cash fork. 

Even though the b-cash clowns seem to be getting a bit more traction, now, the whole environment of August 2017 created BTC price performance that surpassed expectations, and seeming additional bullish indicators that provide ongoing and decent BTC buying support.





I will of course be very disappointed if bitcoin does not perform as well as I think it will.  That has a low order of probability imo tho.

Well, no matter what it seems that we need to account for ongoing price corrections, and we do not want our expectations to become too pie in the sky



Bitcoin and the blockchain are such a disruptive paradigm shift that there is no stopping now. The genie is   out of the bottle.

Well you are right about these things and even though I think that there is going to be decent probabilities of ongoing upwards price movements, the upwards price movements are not givens, that's for sure.


I like to equate it to what Henry Ford did for the automotive industry..he didnt invent the auto..he just streamlined building them and wallah the assembly line was born. Satoshi has done the same thing. He didnt invent money or ledgers..just streamlined the way they are integrated and used.


fair enough analogy.

bleh..im preaching to the choir again 

Preach on.... preach on....

That's what we are here for, and to fight off the nutjob trolls, big blockers and corporate shills.
JayJuanGee
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January 08, 2018, 07:49:07 AM


I hope that you are not 100% BTC, again?





Hey!!!!  I am trying to help.


NO one should be going either 100% bitcoin or 100% fiat.

I know that peeps do it all the time, and I am saying:


STOP!!!!

 Tongue Tongue    Cheesy Cheesy
JayJuanGee
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January 08, 2018, 07:55:15 AM

I am currently 100% BTC on my BTC / USD account.  I will start selling down again as we hit $16k, to a low of 98% BTC.  Yes I am a hard bull because anyone not on the train when it leaves the station will be left behind.   Again.

I have Tether and Alts in my Alts account.  But that is firewalled from the BTC account and they don’t mix, other than taking profits in BTC which is a one way process. Those funds never come back to the Alts account.

Edit:  first sell at $15900 so no longer 100%....  

The problem from my perspective is that the weekend dip grossly underperformed. I was targeting buying back lower.  This is a strong bullish signal for the week ahead.



Don't get me wrong, because I am completely sympathetic for bullish inclinations, and it could be possible that we are merely using the terminology differently?


Or perhaps, I am just not as smart as you in terms of figuring out BTC price direction.


I know that you are proclaiming a pretty fucking strong indication that BTC prices are going UP from here - but really, how can you know for sure.  NO one knows... NOT even Roach.

What I am asking is what if prices go below $10k, then what you going to do?  If you have money to buy under $10k, then you are already NOT 100%, and we are merely using the term 100% differently.   

By the way, I have orders set all the way down to $3k; however, I think that the odds are quite low that any of them are going to be filled.. even filling orders below $10k is seeming like a pretty big stretch, but I still think that it remains a very prudent thing to prepare for the unexpected, no?     
BlindMayorBitcorn
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January 08, 2018, 08:01:48 AM

$3k   

I guess crazier things have happened..
JayJuanGee
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January 08, 2018, 08:10:07 AM

If you sell on the way up, you won’t have anything left when BTC hits $1 million.  Don’t be that guy.

I figure that I have a system that I am never going to run out of BTC.

I sell about 1% for every 10% rise in price, and then I end up buying a decent amount of it back, so I feel as if I am never going to run out. 

Further, I have been following a similar practice since $250.  In other words, I have been selling since $250, and one of my excel sheets project my sales several magnitudes in advance, and my projections seem to be fairly conservative because the BTC price tends to paue on its way up, so I tend to be able to buy back a decent portion of what I had sold which causes my projection to increase in the quantity of BTC that I have even in the worse case scenario - in which the price goes shooting straight up. 

It just appears that I have plenty of BTC no matter what, and right now my projection goes up to about $95k, and it appears that if the BTC price were to go shooting straight up to $95k without any pause (how likely is that?) i still would retain about 85% of my current BTC stash... So, really, it seems that I do not have any kind of running out of BTC problem, even in the most bullish of scenarios in which there is not volatility.  And, I would argue in that kind of case, then it might be a good idea to sell some BTC along the way because it seems to me that the most inevitable things in BTClandia is volatility and corrections... even if we cannot determine when, how much or how long, exactly. 
JayJuanGee
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January 08, 2018, 08:22:46 AM

$3k   

I guess crazier things have happened..

I don't know what my problem is exactly, but if you recall the mid-September price correction down from $4,980 to $2,970?    I was on a trip, and I saw that BTC prices kept dropping, but I only had buy orders down to about $2,700, so I was beginning to get a bit worried as the BTC price got closer and closer to my last buy orders.

Of course, I had more money in the bank and stashed in various places that was more or less considered to be in my BTC investment portfolio; however, since I was on vacation, and the money was not already on exchanges, I was scrambling to consider what I was going to do, exactly, once the last of my buy orders fill, if it were to happen.  As we know the price did not go lower, but such situation caused me to create a better plan to attempt to preserve the amount of money that I had on exchanges that would already be preset to buy.

Actually, so currently, our late 2017 BTC price appreciation has helped me a lot in my staggering of my preparations.

I have also done something different on the sell side, so currently, I have sell orders set up to $35k.  Feels like the prudent thing for me  to do in order to prepare.
BlindMayorBitcorn
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January 08, 2018, 08:31:57 AM

I'm not about to dismiss your laddering strategies, or the possibility of doom. Do what works. God speed, hombre.
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January 08, 2018, 08:35:22 AM

I don't want you to feel like I am dogging you, but on a personal level, I am feeling a bit heavy on the BTC side, because when we went up to $19,000s, I was around 88% BTC, but my bullish inclinations caused me to be kind of on a BTC accumulation mission because I had been selling so much BTC all the way up from $9k-ish and even before that, ever since our mid September correction down to $2,970.    Anyhow, by the time we reached $19,666, there was a bit of a sense that we were going to continue going up and to break above $20k (or at least at the time there seemed to have been decent odds to break above $20k, which kind of seems absurd now, and like we really did need to have this "pause" period).

It still doesn't seem as absurd to me judging from the local market (Greece). Given that we still have in effect capital controls, you can't just wire a big amount abroad and buy BTC. So internal demand has to be met by internal supply - and this "closed system" over here kind of reveals more of the dynamics compared to an open/international system.

From what I saw, internal supply dried up sharply after prices went 8-10k+ - in a way mirroring your own sells. This means that most people sold a lot of BTC in sub-10k prices and then there was very little to sell from willing sellers... meanwhile willing buyers wanted a lot of BTC, even up to 20k and beyond (they were paying a premium) yet they couldn't find it.

On the international scene, you have similar situations with exchanges being unable to handle new customers, imposing buying quotas, etc. In a way, the market is being bottlenecked by tens of intentional or unintentional obstacles - but the money keeps piling up.

I observed the exact same patterns happening down here in South America.

Internal supply dried quickly during the run up, and the usual 'Exchange + 3%' premium increased to 5 and then to 8%. It's starting to get better now but it was hard to find any btc at all during christmas and new year.
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January 08, 2018, 08:42:38 AM

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January 08, 2018, 08:44:07 AM

Like I said yeasterday the old mammoth is already faltering. We are about to go down big time!
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January 08, 2018, 09:28:55 AM

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...
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January 08, 2018, 09:29:45 AM

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

It's a sea of red - ETH down on the daily now.
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January 08, 2018, 09:35:14 AM

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

It's a sea of red - ETH down on the daily now.

are there any particular news?
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January 08, 2018, 09:40:38 AM

Like I said yeasterday the old mammoth is already faltering. We are about to go down big time!

It is funny to see how poor alt trolls are crawling from their mouse holes each time BTC dips for an hour. What are you hoping for, noobs? That with 15$ buying ripple, iota or other scam that hardly will survive 2-3 years and win 10 mln $? Not gonna happen, I guarantee!
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January 08, 2018, 09:52:05 AM

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

It's a sea of red - ETH down on the daily now.

are there any particular news?

No news. Pure emotion.

There was a few tweets about TRON reminding everyone that shitcoins are shit, but that's an everyday occurrence (that gets ignored).

Bitcoin will be the biggest winner at the end of the day. ETH will probably bounce back too.
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