Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RejectedBanana]

Let's assume (for the third or fourth time, I know) that this is the last time we see quad-digits. Dangerous, I know, but I get impatient.

Since my last update, this means Da Bears only managed to erode into a single doubling floor, extending the $5k to $10k floor by 21 more days, for a total of 121 days since we last saw $5k.

For reference, the Mt Gox correction eroded three presumed doubling floors ($640, $320, $160), taking over three years to reestablish these support levels.

Projecting from trend, I'm thinking another 90 days until we establish $20k as a new floor, maybe around mid-May.

$10k marks the 12th Bitcoin doubling floor since $2.50 in 2012.
The shortest doubling floor was 39 days from $20 to $40.
The longest doubling floor was 546 days from $80 to $160 post-Mt Gox.

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. ATHs are too transient and susceptible to FUD, making them more suitable for rektees traders. 

Go Bitcoin Go!



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2834180.msg29061043

[infofront]

Let's assume (for the third or fourth time, I know) that this is the last time we see quad-digits. Dangerous, I know, but I get impatient.

Since my last update, this means Da Bears only managed to erode into a single doubling floor, extending the $5k to $10k floor by 21 more days, for a total of 121 days since we last saw $5k.

For reference, the Mt Gox correction eroded three presumed doubling floors ($640, $320, $160), taking over three years to reestablish these support levels.

Projecting from trend, I'm thinking another 90 days until we establish $20k as a new floor, maybe around mid-May.

$10k marks the 12th Bitcoin doubling floor since $2.50 in 2012.
The shortest doubling floor was 39 days from $20 to $40.
The longest doubling floor was 546 days from $80 to $160 post-Mt Gox.

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. ATHs are too transient and susceptible to FUD, making them more suitable for rektees traders. 

Go Bitcoin Go!



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2834180.msg29061043

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

[bones261]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

BTC will be $1,000,000 at about the same time that a loaf of Wonder Bread costs $50.00. Which may be sooner than we all think..

[explorer]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000 for the last time?

[RejectedBanana]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

Let's project.  

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2020
$320k Aug 2020
$640k Feb 2021
$1.28MM Aug 2021

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.

edit: skipped a year

[HairyMaclairy]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

Let's project.  

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2021
$320k Aug 2021
$640k Feb 2022
$1.28MM Aug 2022

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.

You lot that like to sell your BTC in increments to buy back, take note that you don’t run out.  

[HairyMaclairy]

I just sent a wire. Drifting from somewhere down the street, I can smell a slight sweet scent of FOMO on the air.

[jojo69]

I just sent a wire.  I can smell a slight sweet scent of FOMO on the air. 

no FOMO man

[JayJuanGee]

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. ATHs are too transient and susceptible to FUD, making them more suitable for rektees traders.  

So, when are we going to hit establish $1,000,000 as a floor?

Based on mfort312's BTC floor specialism, I FTFY.

[JayJuanGee]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

Let's project.  

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2021
$320k Aug 2021
$640k Feb 2022
$1.28MM Aug 2022

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.

You lot that like to sell your BTC in increments to buy back, take note that you don’t run out.  

I won't run out....            Even though my chart only goes up about 8x from current price, but I suppose I can add a few more lines onto my projections to account for these real probable situations.

... I anticipate that even if BTC prices were to shoot straight up to $1.28million faster than the timeline, my formula for selling does not allow me to run out, and probably I wouldn't even go below 50%, if BTC prices were to shoot straight the fuck up.....

I already have too much fiat, now, so the problem of too much fiat seems likely to exacerbate based on these totally "reasonable" BTC price projections... really gonna be problems of the 1%... OMG    


Edit:  I just went back to my charts, and I added a few more rows to project that if I go out 12x with the projection, that is about $126k per BTC, and if the price went shooting up to that price, sure it adds up to a lot of Fiat getting added to my accounts, but that fiat can be used to buy back BTC, I suppose...

My problem does not seem to be NOT having enough BTC in the event that the price goes shooting up, but instead, I am going to need to start spending more money in the very near future - since we cannot take this money with us... fuck..   This is an emergency, no? 

Seems that I have too many BTC..   Anyone want some BTC?  

Bob.. you are going to have the same problem, no?  Better start spending money soon.. .. upgrade your porsche to a lambo.. right away.. buy a rocket to send one porsche up into space and get another upgraded one.  Start living higher on the hog... RIGHT NOW.  Seems that we be going UP and going to cause a lot of problems of RICHIE.

[grn]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

Let's project.  

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2021
$320k Aug 2021
$640k Feb 2022
$1.28MM Aug 2022

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.

You lot that like to sell your BTC in increments to buy back, take note that you don’t run out.  

I won't run out....            Even though my chart only goes up about 8x from current price, but I suppose I can add a few more lines onto my projections to account for these real probable situations.

... I anticipate that even if BTC prices were to shoot straight up to $1.28million faster than the timeline, my formula for selling does not allow me to run out, and probably I wouldn't even go below 50%, if BTC prices were to shoot straight the fuck up.....

I already have too much fiat, now, so the problem of too much fiat seems likely to exacerbate based on these totally "reasonable" BTC price projections... really gonna be problems of the 1%... OMG    

I'm starting to have fiat problems myself. Those of you that regularly cash out, where do you store your fiat? Anyone into offshore IBC's and banking? If so which banks(s) and countries have you chosen?

Edit:
Further to the above; which exchange is your favourite for wire transfers offshore? especially when an intermediary is required

[suchmoon]

I'm starting to have fiat problems myself. Those of you that regularly cash out, where do you store your fiat? Anyone into offshore IBC's and banking? If so which banks(s) and countries have you chosen?

Edit:
Further to the above; which exchange is your favourite for wire transfers offshore? especially when an intermediary is required

I can't be bothered with IBC given the ridiculously low capital gains tax in the US.

[HairyMaclairy]

Bitstamp is the obvious choice for a high volume exchange that is not in the US. I have always found it rock solid.  After that the water gets murky real fast. Get in, do what you have to do, and get out.

[Toxic2040]

I won't run out.... 

I already have too much fiat...

really gonna be problems of the 1%... 

I'm starting to have fiat problems myself. Those of you that regularly cash out, where do you store your fiat? Anyone into offshore IBC's and banking? If so which banks(s) and countries have you chosen?

Edit:
Further to the above; which exchange is your favourite for wire transfers offshore? especially when an intermediary is required

Bitstamp is the obvious choice for a high volume exchange that is not in the US. I have always found it rock solid.  After that the water gets murky real fast. Get in, do what you have to do, and get out.

I agree..tho the Kraken has rejuvenated itself nicely. 

I would look into a shelf company, perhaps out of Belize.

http://www.worldoffshorebanks.com/10-things-you-need-to-know-about-a-belize-offshore-company.php
https://www.apintertrust.com/offshore_company/belize_ibc.htm

[jojo69]

the hell is going on with the ETH meltdown?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

the hell is going on with the ETH meltdown?

[HairyMaclairy]

The narrow and weak channel (such that it was) is now breaking to the upside.  

the hell is going on with the ETH meltdown?

EIP 867.  Allowing Devs to make state changes, to fix the Parity hack.  Its DAO all over again.  Also partly explains the pick up in ETC, in addition to Callisto. 

https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/pull/867

[JayJuanGee]

I won't run out.... 

I already have too much fiat...

really gonna be problems of the 1%... 

Perhaps, I may have to change my cashing out formula because the formula allows for my selling about 1% for every 10% price rise, so for example, if I start out with $100, and the price shoots up 10x, then I have cashed out about the equivalent of my original investment of $100 but I still have about 9x of the principle which is $900. The same thing is true for the next 10x and the next 10x, so if anyone follows such a formula, then he would not run out of BTC to sell in the event that the price continues to increase by 10x, yet he will have accumulated a lot of fiat, to decide whether to keep it for reinvesting (because I don't think that we ever go up a straight 10x without some kind of price correction in there) or to cash some or all of that fiat out.

Many of  us could already have issues like this, besides me, no?  But the problem that HairyMac was referring to was if guys and gal are cashing out too much too quickly and then run out... but if we have a formula for cashing out, we do not run out of BTC.

We know that we had about a 10x increase from $500 to $5k, and now we are at an additional 2x from $5k to $10k, but with the numbers presented by mfort312, it appears that there could be another couple of 10x increases within the price increase speculation, and the formula that I follow does not allow for running out of BTC, even if there were such a great increase...

[Toxic2040]

Obligatory for the crushing of the upcoming 11k wall.
+10 WOsMerits airdrop for all..f#ck it.
Carry on.

[marcus_of_augustus]

breakout