Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Perhaps, I may have to change my cashing out formula because the formula allows for my selling about 1% for every 10% price rise, so for example, if I start out with $100, and the price shoots up 10x, then I have cashed out about the equivalent of my original investment of $100 but I still have about 9x of the principle which is $900. The same thing is true for the next 10x and the next 10x, so if anyone follows such a formula, then he would not run out of BTC to sell in the event that the price continues to increase by 10x, yet he will have accumulated a lot of fiat, to decide whether to keep it for reinvesting (because I don't think that we ever go up a straight 10x without some kind of price correction in there) or to cash some or all of that fiat out.

Why cash out at all if you already have enough fiat?  Why not just ride the whole stack up?  

Because shit happens. And it allows for buying back lower down.

Yeah the real question for me is whether an incrementalist approach or defensively trading established macro trends would be optimal.  

[1714283012]

1714283012

[Toxic2040]

breakout

[Searing]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

BTC will be $1,000,000 at about the same time that a loaf of Wonder Bread costs $50.00. Which may be sooner than we all think..

That or we see John McAfee do something he claims he's not going to do by a certain year.

or craig wright is satoshi and on jan 1st 2020 has access to that blind trust with billions of bitcoin in it ..(as last man of the satoshi group alive) and he dumps it all
just to burn us all.....(this is how life usually works in the bitcoin universe ...weird as f*ck)

[JayJuanGee]

Perhaps, I may have to change my cashing out formula because the formula allows for my selling about 1% for every 10% price rise, so for example, if I start out with $100, and the price shoots up 10x, then I have cashed out about the equivalent of my original investment of $100 but I still have about 9x of the principle which is $900. The same thing is true for the next 10x and the next 10x, so if anyone follows such a formula, then he would not run out of BTC to sell in the event that the price continues to increase by 10x, yet he will have accumulated a lot of fiat, to decide whether to keep it for reinvesting (because I don't think that we ever go up a straight 10x without some kind of price correction in there) or to cash some or all of that fiat out.

Why cash out at all if you already have enough fiat?  Why not just ride the whole stack up?  

I have been employing this system (more or less) on the way up since about $250 (starting in October 2015), and I am learning along the way, because in the beginning, sometimes I would get too excited by price movements in one direction and I would deviate from the system - which only caused me to fuck myself in the end...  A good example is my newbie application of his system when the price shot up from $270 to $500 in November 2015, I sold way too little.. and I was not able to take as much advantage of the dip back down to $300.. fuck.. I learned from that to just follow my formula... and, yeah, I have not been perfectly following it, because even I can become emotional with great market moves and stagnation.

 I became more disciplined in stopping my deviation from following the formula, and after I stopped deviating and only tweaking my application a little bit here and there, the system ended up working so much better because we are really never able to determine exactly when the price is going to turn, and I don't know how to make those kinds of predictions and I don't really believe folks who claim to be able to make those kinds of predictions.   

I mean, we had a 70% price correction, and I would have been decently comfortable buying BTC down to a 90% or more correction, if it would have happened (of course I would not have liked it, but my system allowed the building up of fiat that could be used for buying back all the way down, if the price were to go down).

Even though in my earlier post I started out saying that "I may have to change my cashing out formula", I am thinking that I am lying with that kind of assertion because I really don't conclude that it would be wise to change something that really works to prepare for both UP and DOWN...

Surely, I still get nervous in each price direction and when the price seems to be moving beyond rational expectations, and sometimes I wish that I would have NOT sold so much or I wish that I would have bought more.. or I wished that I would have sold more.. blah blah blah.. we know the drill about having some regrets after the market has already moved. but in the end, we don't really know what the fuck the market is going to do and when it is going to do it and for how long it is going to do it.  So, just following the formula with minor tweaks here and there really provides a lot of comfort and insurance for such seemingly ongoing volatile asset like this bitcoin thingie ma-jiggie.

Seem like one of the biggest guarantees that we have in bitcoin remains volatility.. NOT whether we are going up or if we are going down... but just volatility.. and if we are understanding the fundamentals of bitcoin sufficiently, then we can recognize that there is a decent chance that even though we are going up and down and up and down, just like the rollercoaster guy, it remains quite likely that we are going to continue to have upwards BTC price movement on an ongoing basis and in the long run.. and BTFD remains a good practice to have and a good thing to prepare for on an ongoing basis by selling small amounts on the way up.......

So, largely, the last few days, I have been mostly selling, and it looks like I am going to continue to be selling, and the amounts are small because we cannot be sure if we are continuing to go up or when this little fake out bad boy is going to reverse.. Maybe it will and maybe it won't and in the end my strategy allows me to NOT care... even though I am hoping a bit more that we be going UP.. UP is so much more fun than DOWN, no?....   Bring on the hookers, blow and lambos... hahahahahaha

[JayJuanGee]

Perhaps, I may have to change my cashing out formula because the formula allows for my selling about 1% for every 10% price rise, so for example, if I start out with $100, and the price shoots up 10x, then I have cashed out about the equivalent of my original investment of $100 but I still have about 9x of the principle which is $900. The same thing is true for the next 10x and the next 10x, so if anyone follows such a formula, then he would not run out of BTC to sell in the event that the price continues to increase by 10x, yet he will have accumulated a lot of fiat, to decide whether to keep it for reinvesting (because I don't think that we ever go up a straight 10x without some kind of price correction in there) or to cash some or all of that fiat out.

Why cash out at all if you already have enough fiat?  Why not just ride the whole stack up?  

Because shit happens. And it allows for buying back lower down.

Finally, you stepped out of your race hating hut, and you proclaimed something that makes a whole hell of a lot of sense...

I had a quick flash thought of giving you a merit that dissipated quickly when I realized that I cannot give merits for just a string of one good post.  hahahahahaha   

[explorer]

I agree..tho the Kraken has rejuvenated itself nicely.  

I got a support ticket response after barely 3 weeks!  Telling me my ticket was being forwarded to an account specialist!
I will feel less special if another 3 weeks passes with no contact...

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[jojo69]

EIP 867.  Allowing Devs to make state changes, to fix the Parity hack.  Its DAO all over again.  Also partly explains the pick up in ETC, in addition to Callisto. 

https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/pull/867

I thought they were having meetings and learning how to sing kumbaya?

[Toxic2040]

EIP 867.  Allowing Devs to make state changes, to fix the Parity hack.  Its DAO all over again.  Also partly explains the pick up in ETC, in addition to Callisto. 

https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/pull/867

I thought they were having meetings and learning how to sing kumbaya?

I thought I saw some RT from/about Vitalik going around earlier too. Not sure what it was but basically a quote saying he could not remain neutral. So I guess immutability is a thing after all? 

[HairyMaclairy]

Maybe immutable.  

Are all the ETH full nodes sheep?

[JayJuanGee]

Perhaps, I may have to change my cashing out formula because the formula allows for my selling about 1% for every 10% price rise, so for example, if I start out with $100, and the price shoots up 10x, then I have cashed out about the equivalent of my original investment of $100 but I still have about 9x of the principle which is $900. The same thing is true for the next 10x and the next 10x, so if anyone follows such a formula, then he would not run out of BTC to sell in the event that the price continues to increase by 10x, yet he will have accumulated a lot of fiat, to decide whether to keep it for reinvesting (because I don't think that we ever go up a straight 10x without some kind of price correction in there) or to cash some or all of that fiat out.

Why cash out at all if you already have enough fiat?  Why not just ride the whole stack up?  

Because shit happens. And it allows for buying back lower down.

Yeah the real question for me is whether an incrementalist approach or defensively trading established macro trends would be optimal.  

Maybe either approach could work as long as you account for the likelihood that we are in an exponential s-curve, but you recall that the past  few weeks including yourself are asserting that we are in a bear market.. or even entering into a bear market how the fuck do we know, until we are in it for 6 months..?  yeah we can have hunches and kind of bet on the hunches, but still exercise incrementalism....  Part of my point is that we don't really know and we are safest to hedge both directions, but mostly (and largely up.. because we understand that the fundamentals are UP).

[HairyMaclairy]

I panic sold part of my holdings at $13.5k and $10.5k.

I bought back 98% of my original position between $6k and $8800 because I was defensively hedging against the upside. So now I have a stack of fiat, a stack of taxes and a wire to buy back the last 2%.  

So overall I have done quite well even if I did not get the chance to make the buys I thought I was going to get under $5k and have been left with an increase in fiat and no net increase in BTC. Maybe if I got off my ass and calculated my taxes I could buy back some more, but I need to do that soon.

I can’t model it in my head but intuitively incrementalism ties up a lot of capital that is not particularly doing anything even if it helps you sleep.  My guess is you would not have made the gains I made on this swing, but would have slept better. My approach was certainly higher risk.  But I try not to sell until the downtrend is baked in and then watch it carefully.  If 2018 is like 2017, I think I may not make any more trades until November / December of this year when I start hedging for downside risk again. 

[JayJuanGee]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

BTC will be $1,000,000 at about the same time that a loaf of Wonder Bread costs $50.00. Which may be sooner than we all think..

That or we see John McAfee do something he claims he's not going to do by a certain year.

or craig wright is satoshi and on jan 1st 2020 has access to that blind trust with billions of bitcoin in it ..(as last man of the satoshi group alive) and he dumps it all
just to burn us all.....(this is how life usually works in the bitcoin universe ...weird as f*ck)

He is a fucking con artist, and sure he would like you to believe that he was actually an insider, when he is just full of shit...

but, I will play along with your hypothetical that he would gain access to about 1 million bitcoins, which currently would be valued at about $10billion dollars, and sure he could dump those 1 million bitcoins.  It would likely crash the bitcoin price, but it would not destroy the fundamentals of bitcoin nor be able to sustain control over bitcoin.

We should have a plan for such calamity - but we should not be planning our lives around scenarios that are likely less than 1% to actually happen, right?

[JayJuanGee]

I panic sold at $13.5k and $10.5k.

I bought back 98% of my original position between $6k and $8800 because I was defensively hedging against the upside. So now I have a stack of fiat, a stack of taxes and a wire to buy back the last 2%.  

So overall I have done quite well even if I did not get the chance to make the buys I thought I was going to get under $5k and have been left with an increase in fiat and no net increase in BTC. Maybe if I got off my ass and calculated my taxes I could buy back some more, but I need to do that soon.

I can’t model it in my head but intuitively incrementalism ties up a lot of capital that is not particularly doing anything even if it helps you sleep.  My guess is you would not have made the gains I made on this swing, but would have slept better. My approach was certainly higher risk.  But I try not to sell until the downtrend is baked in and then watch it carefully.

I recall something about your panic sells, and it seems that you were able to take advantage of that kind of screwed up situation and you were able to come out of the whole matter a bit better than Rosewater and BMB.. hahahahaha

Your outline of the stress of the matter are all real concerns, and yeah, you can take your profits in fiat or in BTC, and decide how you are going to treat your accounting and your taxes, whether you have yet realized any gain that is necessary to report in regards to taxes....

I am not really sure about how to measure my situation because if we look at BTC's recent price history we can start at $5k, and see that BTC's price went from $5k to $20k and then back down to $6k and assuming that it is returning back to $20k.  

For simplicity sake, let's say that the first time that we passed above $5k we were mostly loaded down with BTC so for all intents and purposes we had X BTC and $0; however, when we got up to $20k, we had about a 4x increase in price, which would have caused us to sell about 20% of our BTC which gets converted into fiat (we sell about 20% because we are selling about 10% every time the price doubles - or 1% for every 10% price rise, and if the price goes up 4x, it has doubled twice).  When BTC prices return back down to $6k, we end up using almost all of the fiat that we accumulated on the way up to $20k to buy back BTC.  We are not getting those BTC at the cheapest price because we are exercising incrementalism, so if we are lucky, we might accumulate 10% more BTC with the 20% fiat that we accumulated, and when we return back up to $20k, we may only end up with about 5% more BTC than we had the first time around.  

Surely, I am ball parking these numbers, and in the end, like you mentioned, no killing is being made, but you can sit back and feel comfortable and keep your blood pressure down by 10 to 20 points, perhaps.

And, really, we hardly ever get 70% price corrections like this, but we do get a whole hell of a lot of corrections that are a lot smaller between 10% and 40%, and you can have decent stacking up no matter what the level of volatility because usually your orders are going to at least be able to account for 10% swings, and maybe more commonly allow for some catching smaller swings, too -- 5% can be reasonable, and some high volume high frequency traders will do 1% swings, and I am not going to do that, and currently, I consider myself to be in the 5% to 10% arena... so even my system and application varies a bit with the passage of time.. like I mentioned earlier, I started out at using 1.5% increments, and kind of got into about a 5% increments groove, and progressed beyond 5% and up to 15% increments - however, I think that I am moving back below 10% increments, at least on a short-term basis.... based on what I perceive to be current market conditions.

[jojo69]

good lord

are we watching Ethereum die?

[bitebits]

bit of a leg up to 10335. unexpected?

We had a 2 minute spot on Ellen today. I expected more.
I don't want to be a poor sport, but Richard Heart might have had a point. Wall street is just selling to mainstream audiences now, first CNBC, now daytime television. What's left? Where's the next gangster payout for yours truly?  

The other 7+ billion perhaps?

And calm down now Bitcoin, easy does it.

[starmman]

good lord

are we watching Ethereum die?

Etherium could do with dropping another 10-20% IMO, current price is still a bit high

[explorer]

good lord

are we watching Ethereum die?

'twould be nice to dump it's diseased carcass in the swamp...

[HairyMaclairy]

good lord

are we watching Ethereum die?

'twould be nice to dump it's diseased carcass in the swamp...

Wishful thinking I’m afraid.  At least until we have RSK being used commercially.

[TERA2]

it's time to begin my premature selling where I only take a measly 80% profit and miss another 40% or so.

[explorer]

it's time to begin my premature selling where I only take a measly 80% profit and miss another 40% or so.

Ahh, but 80 is so much better than 40, or 20, no?  I for one am glad of your no FOMO rational trade posts.