Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kirreev070]

Congratulations !!) How would you describe the past year?

For me it was a difficult but interesting year.

Do you think this meme is true?)

Periodically it is. Although this is the exception rather than the rule. But sometimes my eyes twitch...

[1596972612]

1596972612

[1596972612]

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[JayJuanGee]

Your fud has no power here

Largest most recent spike into mempool green was October 5.  We had a small dump that day followed by Bart downward on October 10.  We are again creeping into green mem pool territory.

Currently shorts are rising fast (as shown by Bitmex funding rate going negative) and Bitfinex USD shorts being up 4.6% in the past 24 hours off already high levels (currently 34k).  

From a technical perspective we are at the outer boundaries of the meme triangle and due a push down.

The price is currently range bound in a narrow band which points to an explosive move to follow.

Taking into consideration that we have just had a failed rally, the most likely direction of travel is a short explosive move down.  Maybe to $6200 or $6100.   The alternative is another short squeeze which becomes more likely as Bitfinex shorts approach 40k if no downward movement by that point, although it’s hard to believe that many shorts will be using high margin and vulnerable to liquidation given the actions of the past 48 hours.  Stop hunts are always a risk.  

The mem pool data is just one factor in this analysis.  All the other points are indepently verifiable albeit TA is subjective by definition. 
If I had to make a price prediction, I would say $6200 within the next 4 days.  If more Tether FUD blows up, then all bets are off as a run on Bitfinex could easily cause another surge in price. 

All of this is going on in the context of continued desire to shake additional froth from the altcoin space.... yet even though there seems to be incentive and perhaps a relatively strong desire to shake additional froth from such altcoin space, I don't think that such shaking (whether short term or medium term) is a necessary precedent for bitcoin prices to return towards ATH (and to bring frothy altcoins/ICOs and other scams with). 

[JayJuanGee]

https://support.binance.com/hc/en-us/articles/360017955492
Binance Trading Strategy Competition - 37,000 BNB Giveaway!
The requirements of the Trading Strategy Competition

2) Withdrawals are not permitted during the competition period to remain eligible.

inb4 CZ has liquidity probs

Must be learning from the Micpeep about the value of games to attract the attention of folks?

[Last of the V8s]

It was knocking about the cypherpunk mailing list for a couple months before launch.
The only people who could possibly have been interested at that time.
Anyone who was anyone could have mined and contributed from day one or even before.

That doesn't make it a fair launch.  Satoshi was able to mine one million bitcoins himself.

I'm a crypto supporter but the fact that one guy owns such a large percentage of bitcoins scares off new investors.  This whole thing looks like a giant ponzi scheme from the outside.

As fair as poss in the circs. Would you have had him announce it in the MSM? Would've defeated the object, no?
It's not an investment, it's a bid for freedom. It doesn't need newbs.
What it looks like to newbs and what it actually is are different, and the former is irrelevant.
The million btc meme is a myth. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=175996.msg1832988#msg1832988 onwards

[ThePunisher49X]

Volume is spiking fast, with minimal volatility. We know what that means.

[JayJuanGee]

Mmmm probably your longer in BTC as 1 year and just 1 year active on the forum, sorry my bad.

Yeap, I in BTC since 2013. Long watched the forum, but registered only a year ago

As you celebrate and would be there, i surely would buy you Some good old cocktails ..... so cheers drink one of me  

All that will be needed this weekend is alcohol and good company.

What was your overall BTC investment strategy?  Did you dollar cost average to accumulate?  Did you make some sell mistakes?    Did you have some sell successes - especially since we had such an outrageous run that first went about 20x from $250 to $5k - and then another 4x from there - before coming back down. 

I have a few people that I got into bitcoin - at least I was a kind of catalyst to their introduction and largely attempting to get them to accumulate and to HODL, yet peeps certainly have minds of their own (and I encourage that too), there were a few people who got some decent profits and got out, but only the rare one largely held through and was lucky enough to take decent profits in the $14k range - while still holding a vast majority of the original stash - I mean withdrew more than 4x of the original principle, and still retains "house money BTC" that is valued around 9x of the original principle.  Surely some luck in that but such luck is surely facilitated when an asset (like bitcoin) has performed so well and really remains in a price territory that is more than 20x of its 2015 "stability" point (that was in the mid $200s for a vast majority of the year).

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Are we still not rich?

[kirreev070]

Are we still not rich?

We need to wait a couple of years and we will become even richer.

[Dig Bicks]

Are we still not rich?

Well being a millionaire these days isn't rich.  Have to be a billionaire now if you want to be considered truly wealthy.

[Icygreen]

If there's a green one in there... 

 an icy green one?  

Oh ya baby, Bullrun hat, I see green    Everywhere! Green!!!
It won't end up like the pants, promise.  
 

[JayJuanGee]

It was knocking about the cypherpunk mailing list for a couple months before launch.
The only people who could possibly have been interested at that time.
Anyone who was anyone could have mined and contributed from day one or even before.

That doesn't make it a fair launch.  Satoshi was able to mine one million bitcoins himself.


I'm a crypto supporter but the fact that one guy owns such a large percentage of bitcoins scares off new investors.  This whole thing looks like a giant ponzi scheme from the outside.

You realize that those are worn out talking points that really attempt to skew BTC history, and even if bitcoin has not achieved some kind of "fair launch" in your abstract sense of "fairness," it largely seems that satoshi's coins are completely gone to history (in the archives) and never to be part of the bitcoin's circulation.  Even if satoshi's coins do become part of the system, it seems that bitcoin was about as fair of a launch that there could have been - and certainly people who know about technology and find out about bitcoin still have opportunities to get into bitcoin during what seems to be "still early days."    

Good luck to you Dig Bicks, and hopefully you are not so dumb as to NOT be buying and accumulating BTC, even though you are talking it down, here.

Are we still not rich?

Well being a millionaire these days isn't rich.  Have to be a billionaire now if you want to be considered truly wealthy.

O.k.  I will bite, Dig Bicks.

I agree with you that a million is not the same as it was in the past, and that is called inflation - however, there is no reason that guys (and gal) cannot choose for himself/herself the level of "rich" to aspire, and the standard of living that would come from such "rich." 

Living within your means is one way that allows your level of necessary rich to come down, and perhaps being able to do whatever the fuck you want is a kind of level of rich, and that is going to depend upon what you want, exactly - which remains individualized. 

Of course, in the non-western world, a level of rich can be achieved with less than $1million - and likely in the west, there may also be expectations that cause a few million to be necessary for a person living there to at least begin to feel in the "rich" territory and satisfying all wants.

A billion dollars would not necessarily be necessary, unless wants include being able to boss around other people  and perhaps get away with crimes by buying off people..    It seems that most people would not need anywhere near $1billion to feel some semblance of fuck you power which does seem to largely start in the $1million arena depending on individual resourcefulness and subjective wants....

[kirreev070]

What was your overall BTC investment strategy?  Did you dollar cost average to accumulate?  Did you make some sell mistakes?    Did you have some sell successes - especially since we had such an outrageous run that first went about 20x from $250 to $5k - and then another 4x from there - before coming back down.  

I have a few people that I got into bitcoin - at least I was a kind of catalyst to their introduction and largely attempting to get them to accumulate and to HODL, yet peeps certainly have minds of their own (and I encourage that too), there were a few people who got some decent profits and got out, but only the rare one largely held through and was lucky enough to take decent profits in the $14k range - while still holding a vast majority of the original stash - I mean withdrew more than 4x of the original principle, and still retains "house money BTC" that is valued around 9x of the original principle.  Surely some luck in that but such luck is surely facilitated when an asset (like bitcoin) has performed so well and really remains in a price territory that is more than 20x of its 2015 "stability" point (that was in the mid $200s for a vast majority of the year).

I started mining bitcoins at the end of 2013 and continued to do this for almost a year. But then I did not have large resources and I lost some bitcoins when my hard drive burned. I also took out a part of the money in dollars, but I saved part of the money in Bitcon. In the fall of 2014, I abandoned my work with Bitcoin. And I returned to this market only in 2016.

Also, the end of 2017 would not be very successful for me, I invested part of the money in various shitcoin and ico

[bitserve]

That (Dig Bicks) is nonsense. How much would have cost 1 million BTC right after satoshi *supposedly* mined them? Maybe a few thousands? That would be the advantage he got even if he had premined them.... which he didn't btw.

Seems perfectly fair to me.

[JayJuanGee]

Volume is spiking fast, with minimal volatility. We know what that means.

This "we" scratches head.

What does it mean?

[Last of the V8s]

https://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/2011/10/things-ive-learned-after-15-years-of.html?m=1

some great tips here

[bitserve]

Volume is spiking fast, with minimal volatility. We know what that means.

This "we" scratches head.

What does it mean?

I don't even understand how can something "spike fast" with "minimal volatility".

Please explain.

[Wekkel]

Seems perfectly fair to me.

It's the usual thing as ever....

There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.

- Leonardo da Vinci -

Myself, I stopped lecturing people. I only show the way.

[goldkingcoiner]

Volume is spiking fast, with minimal volatility. We know what that means.

This "we" scratches head.

What does it mean?

I don't even understand how can something "spike fast" with "minimal volatility".

Please explain.

[JayJuanGee]

What was your overall BTC investment strategy?  Did you dollar cost average to accumulate?  Did you make some sell mistakes?    Did you have some sell successes - especially since we had such an outrageous run that first went about 20x from $250 to $5k - and then another 4x from there - before coming back down.  

I have a few people that I got into bitcoin - at least I was a kind of catalyst to their introduction and largely attempting to get them to accumulate and to HODL, yet peeps certainly have minds of their own (and I encourage that too), there were a few people who got some decent profits and got out, but only the rare one largely held through and was lucky enough to take decent profits in the $14k range - while still holding a vast majority of the original stash - I mean withdrew more than 4x of the original principle, and still retains "house money BTC" that is valued around 9x of the original principle.  Surely some luck in that but such luck is surely facilitated when an asset (like bitcoin) has performed so well and really remains in a price territory that is more than 20x of its 2015 "stability" point (that was in the mid $200s for a vast majority of the year).

I started mining bitcoins at the end of 2013 and continued to do this for almost a year. But then I did not have large resources and I lost some bitcoins when my hard drive burned. I also took out a part of the money in dollars, but I saved part of the money in Bitcon. In the fall of 2014, I abandoned my work with Bitcoin. And I returned to this market only in 2016.

Also, the end of 2017 would not be very successful for me, I invested part of the money in various shitcoin and ico

Sometimes it takes some bad experiences and rough experiences in order to trigger various kinds of learning in the form of active participation, and sometimes there is luck too.  Being involved and attempting to learn from experiences (both good and bad) does seem to increase chances that you will be in the right place at the right time in the future.

You know the old saying that luck equals the point in which preparation meets opportunity?   Seems to me that some of your past experiences are going to help you in the preparation arena, so long as you continue to strive to learn not to be too greedy and continue to tweak your system(s) and strategies along the way. 

[itod]

Can someone please explain to us who had better things to do yesterday then watching charts, what exactly happened for this green dildo to appear? Thanks.