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Question: Highest price we'll see in 2022:
50,000 - 0 (0%)
60,000 - 0 (0%)
70,000 - 0 (0%)
80,000 - 0 (0%)
90,000 - 0 (0%)
100,000 - 0 (0%)
125,000 - 0 (0%)
150,000 - 0 (0%)
175,000 - 0 (0%)
200,000 - 0 (0%)
225,000 - 0 (0%)
250,000 - 0 (0%)
275,000 - 0 (0%)
300,000 - 0 (0%)
>300,000 - 0 (0%)
Total Voters: 0

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25528885 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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October 15, 2018, 11:24:10 PM
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jjg-
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October 15, 2018, 11:36:28 PM

I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently.  Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.

I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them.  By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%
$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%
$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%
$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%
$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%
$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%
$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%
$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%
More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%

I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there.  Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.

In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops. The most important question is when the effect of mass adoption (including Wall Street companies) is about to happen? I don't think we are near that event. Not even close. So the price will continue to follow its previous pattern. For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition. But let's say that it goes much slower, say 1/4 of the speed of the previous pattern. In other words 6K->600k/4=150k is achievable price within 4 years. But let's say it is not highly probable. Then again, I think that 40K is absolutely normal price in the next 4 years.

I think he did not put much effort in exact %. He even said so.  But what bothers me most in such predictions. And also in predictions from both of you. About what price are you talking about. About the ATH, of the bottom or of the average? 2018 price could be $15000 or $6000 so far. That is quite a difference.

I mentioned this in my response to ivomm, which was that I was attempting to work with ivomm's framework, which was a range of dates that approximate the next two halvenings.  Sure, we could be a bit more precise in our prediction attempts if we pick a specific date rather than a range of dates, but that kind of a practice also might be getting too caught up about the price on a particular date (and being correct) rather than to merely ballpark the concept which is more likely what we do in our brains in real life anyhow when we are approximating the probabilities of events that might happen in the future.  Sometimes, we might attempt to be precise, but likely a lot of times, we ballpark our views and predictions and just go on with our lives with certain frameworks in our heads (that we have to adjust with the passage of time and the learning of new information). 

In my thinking, it does not matter so much about whether we end up being correct, but merely what we believe now, how we prepare based on our thoughts and the extent to which we tweak along the way while information and presumptions are likely to change along the way.
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October 15, 2018, 11:41:49 PM

10 pages today, I guess the price went up? Cheesy

200$


Damn, that all? I see we had a tether ripple. LOL




Quote
Please note that in order to both deposit and withdraw USD (in fiat or USDT denomination), a user will need to be fully KYC-verified.

Kind of Ironically amusing that the user must be KYC yet The Tether is not. Smiley


or tether knew they were solvent. spread the fud themselves. bought your bitcoins for cheap. dumped on you at the top.




4. There are some well researched articles showing that the Bitfinex/USD Tether operation has essentially been responsible for the ENTIRE price rise in bitcoin right from $180 to where we are today

Yeah right. Even if you believe that Willy Bot was ENTIRELY responsible for the $1160 bubble, it had to buy 1M bitcoins. How many bitcoins has Tether bought even if you believe that not a single cent backs it? Yet it is responsible for an even greater relative increase? I'm no fan of Tether, but that sounds like "well-researched", class-A bullshit.

Yup, that is a completely retarded statement.

Bitfinex and their USDT should be shaking in their boots with Fidelity, Bakkt etc coming on board.  The tiddlywinks days of shady exchanges and monopoly money are coming to and end.

Yes but... wouldn't be surprised if in 5-6 years people are cryin' about how Bakkt has become "shady as fuck" too.

Wall Street invented shady.

You got that right!
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October 15, 2018, 11:45:10 PM
Last edit: October 16, 2018, 12:05:53 AM by JayJuanGee

12288$$$$

12/10/2018 IntroVert Sad
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson    
23/06/2021 fortune143              


and another falls off ........................ only 15 left on this one


Yep, I'm toaster city here soon! (Ack!). At least have the BTC price PUMP some, before I get dumped off the list. The price of BTC is so 'embarrassing' from

my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas) Sad

Gosh!!!!!  I don't think that "supermodel trophy wifes" come (even one of them) merely based on having a lot of money...

Let's say BTC prices shoot up from current prices to $1million per BTC within the next year, and let's say that you both had 100 BTC and you were able to hang onto all of them during the price rise and you cashed out at $1million  - easy peasy...!!!!  Viola!!!!  $100 million available -
 minus taxes, of course, but that would be 15% capital gains - leaving $85 million.    

I suppose that should be enough to keep any high maintenance girl happy, right?


my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas) Sad

at 100K, 'trophy wife' coefficient is probably 1K btc, no less.
Alas, I might have been overestimating associated expenses.

You fool, you can't get a 'high quality' ...'trophy wife' for less than 100k a BTC! (Just wait, in a few years I'll prove it to ya!) Smiley

What you gonna call the proof?  Proof of work, proof of steak, proof of trophy acquisition or something else?
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October 16, 2018, 12:36:14 AM


I consider the importance of Tether to be overblown and calling it entirely responsible for the rise to be fearmongering.

Hey, you can never have enough fearmongering when it comes to bitcoin  Cheesy

There's always a pumper at hand to come and extinguish the concern !
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October 16, 2018, 12:36:37 AM
Merited by Rosewater Foundation (1)

I’m pretty relaxed about entry.

*Having nailed the sentiment of the world, Rosewater hands Hairy the sacred hammer*

get yer moon boots on lads

they are always on JUST IN CASE, never now when shit's gonna take off



There ain't no such thing as a free hat. This will end doomily. Wait for it.

Again, your tendency to find a doom scenario in good news, correct?





Living off the fat of the land is a niche hustle. Don't forget to ladder your approaches.

*Rosewater throws the ceremonial mallet*

That is called :   Koreck!!!!   Cheesy
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October 16, 2018, 12:45:43 AM

jjg-

Would you tell Henry Ford to stop assembly line producing anti-semetic personal automobiles?


Of course not.
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October 16, 2018, 01:05:36 AM



THOSE SHORT EXPERTS  Roll Eyes  Grin   watch out hairy   Tongue

He was not liquidated (if you are talking about Tone Vays). On bitmex (where he is doing this trade) highest was $6777. His liquidation happens at around $7650.

So far, we don't really talk about Tone Vays in this thread, but I am sure that a large number of WO thread posters generally understand the position of Tone Vays to be inclined towards believing that a correction is necessary before BTC prices can resume upwards.

Tone Vays also proclaims NOT to trade on his own trading advice because he asserts that he does not have enough time to do so, which seems a bit of an overstatement (especially when he spends a considerable amount of time giving advice about methodologies for trading BTC and uses current charts in order to predict short-term price directions). 
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October 16, 2018, 01:12:07 AM

Shortist leaving the party

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October 16, 2018, 01:29:54 AM

Volume is still looking nice.
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October 16, 2018, 01:35:06 AM

Even the stock hardware is full of secrets and holes, watch this video.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrksBdWcZgQ&t=403s

Have you seen his video attacking System Management Mode using the APIC? Genius. It's also unsettling how vast and disconnected the x86 processor has become. It feels like a decaying city in there.
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October 16, 2018, 01:45:17 AM



It is even worse than it appears when you seem more context and a few more angles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRUBj2PTtL8
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October 16, 2018, 02:06:09 AM

Volume is still looking nice.

People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it. Roll Eyes
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October 16, 2018, 02:12:47 AM

Volume is still looking nice.

People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it. Roll Eyes

Something is wrong with the mayor. seems confused. too much herb?
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October 16, 2018, 02:15:16 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Volume is still looking nice.

People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it. Roll Eyes

Something is wrong with the mayor. seems confused. too much herb?

He's fine. He's right where I left him. Wrapped in plastic.

Now, can we please stay on topic.

I'm trying to think!
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October 16, 2018, 02:19:23 AM
Merited by Globb0 (2), xhomerx10 (1), vroom (1), xyzzy099 (1)

jjg-

Get out of my way, V8!!!!!!




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October 16, 2018, 02:32:23 AM

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October 16, 2018, 02:49:06 AM
Merited by Globb0 (2)

Even the stock hardware is full of secrets and holes, watch this video.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrksBdWcZgQ&t=403s

One of the best presentations I've ever watched.
I love his methodology.


Have you seen his video attacking System Management Mode using the APIC? Genius. It's also unsettling how vast and disconnected the x86 processor has become. It feels like a decaying city in there.

I haven't watched that one, I'll try to set some time aside.

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October 16, 2018, 03:46:31 AM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1), xyzzy099 (1)

Volume is still looking nice.

People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it. Roll Eyes

Something is wrong with the mayor. seems confused. too much herb?

He's fine. He's right where I left him. Wrapped in plastic.

Now, can we please stay on topic.

I'm trying to think!

 Here's a thinking cap.


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October 16, 2018, 03:51:19 AM

Volume is still looking nice.

People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it. Roll Eyes

Something is wrong with the mayor. seems confused. too much herb?

He's fine. He's right where I left him. Wrapped in plastic.

Now, can we please stay on topic.

I'm trying to think!

Do you have the silly mustache market cornered yet?
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