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Question: Is this the last time Bitcoin will be below $9,000?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21718195 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (147 posts by 36 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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September 30, 2018, 12:25:20 AM

DOOM

LT view: BTC over the past 6mo is like a domino cascade in slow motion: The upward bullish swings are getting flatter. The downward bearish swings are getting steeper. Buyers’ energy is exhausted. Bears are in control/ High probability we test the yearly lows in Oct, and fall.



https://twitter.com/MustStopMurad/status/1046052833479585792

Your description of comes off as a bit wishful rather than based on reality.  I see about 8 months (starting from early February) of lows that are more or less in the $5,774 to $6,200 range, and surely some of the BTC price spikes up are not getting higher, but instead seem to be trending downwards during the past 9 months, but I doubt that those facts on their own reasonably create evidence to support your conclusion that "bears are in control."  

What seems to be in control is a kind of ongoing BTC price consolidation period, and attempt to figure out whether there is going to be more resistance for the BTC price to go down to attempt to break support or to go up.. and whether BTC price support will go up with the price, if the BTC price begins to make any meaningful break into the upwards direction. 

TLDR:  Far from settled about what is going to happen during what seems to be about an 8 month long ongoing BTC price consolidation period, but NO real meaningful evidence to support a seemingly wishful conclusion, such as yours, that "bears are in control."
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September 30, 2018, 12:31:59 AM
Last edit: September 30, 2018, 12:52:24 AM by HairyMaclairy

This is my best match against a 2014 scenario.



https://www.tradingview.com/i/YSYQZwmF/
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September 30, 2018, 12:53:08 AM

Here's a recent interview with a interesting character: https://breakermag.com/john-mcafee-is-73-very-stoned-and-running-for-president/
I'd love to see him debate the Donald, or the FBI. I really hope he runs for president. Of course he doesn't stand a chance - and he's smart enough to say it aloud and repeatedly, but can you imagine the fun?
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September 30, 2018, 12:53:32 AM

You just reminded me of terabear. What happened to him/her and all of our beartrolls?

Terabera was a she, but in the latest months of her activity, she was trying to act as if she was a he, for some strange reason.  Some peeps here had suggested that her account got bought out, but I don't buy that theory because it seems that her personality and posting style was otherwise the same, except that she began to act as if she were a he instead of a she.

Regarding her disappearance I have two speculations, and I will list them in order of which one I believe to be more compelling.

1) Terabera had a very similar disappearance during the 2015 bear market, and perhaps in that sense, her pay period was done, if you believe that she was a kind of paid shill, or she concluded that she could not be as profitable as a trader when the market devolved into a certain low level of volatility, if you actually believe that she was a trader.

2) in the latest months of her activity, she disclosed that she was experiencing health issues, something like lime disease, so perhaps her health is continuing to suffer and participating in the forum exacerbates her condition.  I don't really believe this second possible explanation is very convincing because any kind of sickness would allow for more internet participation because it would force sedateness, but if a person is forced to earn an income too, then a sickness might cause a person to have to focus more on money earning activities and to remove forum participation based on its distractive nature.

Tera admittedly had an INTJ personality, which means she would express neither definite female, nor definite male behavior. Well, closer to male, regardless of actual sex. INTJs are analysts with contrarian approach to everything.

I didn't read all of her older posts, but what I have seen during last half-a-hear, was not subjectively bullish or bearish - just an objective analysis based on reality, without any bias.

I really miss her here, as she was one of the most interesting posters (to me at least), with fresh and independent approach to things. Without a contrarian its too easy for a group/thread to be deluded.
If she reads this (which I strongly doubt) I would ask to come back (if that doesn't make her health issues worse, of course).
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September 30, 2018, 12:55:07 AM

Musk to remain as CEO, steps down as Chairman

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/business/tesla-musk-sec-settlement.html
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September 30, 2018, 12:56:15 AM

Tera admittedly had an INTJ personality, which means she would have neither definite female, nor definite male behavior. Well, closer to male, regardless of actual sex. INTJs are analysts with contrarian approach to everything.

I didn't read all of her older posts, but what I have seen during last half-a-hear, was not really bullish or bearish - just an objective analysis based on reality, without any bias.

I really miss her here, as she was one of the most interesting posters (to me at least), with fresh and independent approach to things. Without a contrarian its too easy for a group/thread to be deluded.
If she reads this (which I strongly doubt) I would ask to come back (if that doesn't make her health issues worse, of course).
+1
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September 30, 2018, 01:26:20 AM


 I feel you!  I love Rhodesian ridgebacks too!!


Gorgeous Breed and he's go impeccable taste in owners! Cheesy

How did I know I was going to get this reply. Tongue  +1 WO for u


Here's a recent interview with a interesting character: https://breakermag.com/john-mcafee-is-73-very-stoned-and-running-for-president/

He's a fucking lunatic, I like that in a person. Cheesy

But I wouldn't want him in the white house. But I would vote for him over Trump.

Stoned people are always entertaining.

It doesn't matter if he's stoned or not, he is just like that from everything I have seen and I was in the industry almost as long and have followed his reality show since it started in the early 90's. Smiley

I'd love to see him debate the Donald, or the FBI. I really hope he runs for president. Of course he doesn't stand a chance - and he's smart enough to say it aloud and repeatedly, but can you imagine the fun?

The entertainment value would be EPIC. And he would murder trump.



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September 30, 2018, 01:42:41 AM

Segwit and nonsegwit are all "on the blockchain."  I don't know how anyone who has been in bitcoin for a while would conclude that segwit is NOT on the blockchain?  I do believe that segwit has allowed the transactions per second to jump up dramatically and if you hit refresh on that page you will see the transactions per second jumping around between 10tsp and over 300tsp...   It seems that before segwit, there were proclamations that the bitcoin blockchain could only process a maximum of 7tps.

Yeah... about that....

Segwit or no segwit, BTC is utterly incapable of averaging 300 tps. By a couple orders of magnitude. Block weight will not allow it.

People testing the lightning network are seeing 400TPS easily between two nodes.  

Segwit let that happen.

Note the "on the blockchain" in the quote that advances the mistaken notion -- which I corrected -- that ...

Oh fuck it. If you're determined to be a loon, go ahead. Knock yourself out.
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September 30, 2018, 01:48:20 AM

From now on, only bitcoin for me.

Your transitioning over to bitcoin ...

Username almost checks out. I suggest perhaps 'bitmoverovertoer'
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September 30, 2018, 01:52:37 AM

jbreher
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September 30, 2018, 01:55:55 AM

I don't recall seeing anyone post or discuss this 1broker.com seizure issue that happened about two days ago.

https://bitcoinist.com/1broker-com-domain-seized-by-the-fbi/

I don't recall such discussion either.

Then again, I don't get the relevance of J. Rando biz getting raided upon Bitcoin WO or price discussion.
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September 30, 2018, 01:58:00 AM

Without the whole passport thing I would've snatched one up as another Bitcorn memento.

username checks out

(I seem to be getting repetitive)

Quote
I don't like how everyone and their moms want full KYC these days despite of increasing amounts of data breeches. And so far nobody seems to be trying to solve that part of the problem either.

Well, there _is_ the Bitcoin solution. I mean, at least for those who will embrace it.
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September 30, 2018, 02:00:28 AM

Psst. We're rat poison. Pass it on.

squared.
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September 30, 2018, 02:14:17 AM

Anyway, maybe I'll go batshit crazy and convert all my BTC into BCH to trigger the next bullrun.

Careful -- they'll be out for blood.

Actually, the last few days suggest that now might be a pretty good time to make such a move.
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September 30, 2018, 02:19:49 AM

Here's a recent interview with a interesting character: https://breakermag.com/john-mcafee-is-73-very-stoned-and-running-for-president/

 Stoned people are always entertaining.


Not generally in my experience.

McAffee? Sure. Cecily Strong playing 'the girl at the party you should not have started a conversation with'? Yup (Hell, even Bobby Moynihan playing 'Drunk Uncle').

But random people at the party, in the bar, on the street? Interminable dullardry. And repetition thereof.
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September 30, 2018, 02:21:18 AM

You just reminded me of terabear. What happened to him/her and all of our beartrolls?

Terabera was a she, but in the latest months of her activity, she was trying to act as if she was a he, for some strange reason.  Some peeps here had suggested that her account got bought out, but I don't buy that theory because it seems that her personality and posting style was otherwise the same, except that she began to act as if she were a he instead of a she.

Regarding her disappearance I have two speculations, and I will list them in order of which one I believe to be more compelling.

1) Terabera had a very similar disappearance during the 2015 bear market, and perhaps in that sense, her pay period was done, if you believe that she was a kind of paid shill, or she concluded that she could not be as profitable as a trader when the market devolved into a certain low level of volatility, if you actually believe that she was a trader.

2) in the latest months of her activity, she disclosed that she was experiencing health issues, something like lime disease, so perhaps her health is continuing to suffer and participating in the forum exacerbates her condition.  I don't really believe this second possible explanation is very convincing because any kind of sickness would allow for more internet participation because it would force sedateness, but if a person is forced to earn an income too, then a sickness might cause a person to have to focus more on money earning activities and to remove forum participation based on its distractive nature.

Tera admittedly had an INTJ personality, which means she would express neither definite female, nor definite male behavior. Well, closer to male, regardless of actual sex. INTJs are analysts with contrarian approach to everything.

I didn't read all of her older posts, but what I have seen during last half-a-hear, was not subjectively bullish or bearish - just an objective analysis based on reality, without any bias.

I really miss her here, as she was one of the most interesting posters (to me at least), with fresh and independent approach to things. Without a contrarian its too easy for a group/thread to be deluded.
If she reads this (which I strongly doubt) I would ask to come back (if that doesn't make her health issues worse, of course).

Does that mean that she was being contrary for the mere sake of being  contrary?  That is both annoying and troll-like behavior, no?    I understand that some people might find that interesting, but it seems that if you find it interesting, you are merely wanting to get entertained by the stirring of shit, rather than attempting to engage in meaningful battles of information and conclusions based on facts and logic rather than just picking out some random and inimportant contrarian point?

Anyhow, she seemed more like a troll and a shit stirrer rather than someone who might be well-intentioned and attempting to make meaningful contributions to dialectical discourse... as you seem to suggest her intentions to be good or at least the ends justify the means, perhaps?
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September 30, 2018, 02:29:57 AM


 I feel you!  I love Rhodesian ridgebacks too!!


Gorgeous Breed and he's go impeccable taste in owners! Cheesy

How did I know I was going to get this reply. Tongue  +1 WO for u


Here's a recent interview with a interesting character: https://breakermag.com/john-mcafee-is-73-very-stoned-and-running-for-president/

He's a fucking lunatic, I like that in a person. Cheesy

But I wouldn't want him in the white house. But I would vote for him over Trump.

Stoned people are always entertaining.

It doesn't matter if he's stoned or not, he is just like that from everything I have seen and I was in the industry almost as long and have followed his reality show since it started in the early 90's. Smiley

I'd love to see him debate the Donald, or the FBI. I really hope he runs for president. Of course he doesn't stand a chance - and he's smart enough to say it aloud and repeatedly, but can you imagine the fun?

The entertainment value would be EPIC. And he would murder trump.


Doesn't Mcafee engage in his outrageousness as a form of attention-whoring narcissism, which makes him very similar to Trump, in some outrageous proclamations as a need to get attention kind of ways. 

On the other hand, Mcafee is certainly quite smarter than Trump in terms of technical abilities and likelihood that Mcafee knows how to read and understand complex ideas, and Mcafee is not afraid of drugs and exercise as trump seems to be.  Trump seems to get by and to have success based on bullying behavior, while Mcafee is more accepting of other points of view and able to understand a variety of perspectives.
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September 30, 2018, 02:35:16 AM
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Also, MacAfee isn't afraid to (allegedly) order the murder of somebody who's dogs are pissing him off when he's hung-over.

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September 30, 2018, 02:39:43 AM

Segwit and nonsegwit are all "on the blockchain."  I don't know how anyone who has been in bitcoin for a while would conclude that segwit is NOT on the blockchain?  I do believe that segwit has allowed the transactions per second to jump up dramatically and if you hit refresh on that page you will see the transactions per second jumping around between 10tsp and over 300tsp...   It seems that before segwit, there were proclamations that the bitcoin blockchain could only process a maximum of 7tps.

Yeah... about that....

Segwit or no segwit, BTC is utterly incapable of averaging 300 tps. By a couple orders of magnitude. Block weight will not allow it.

People testing the lightning network are seeing 400TPS easily between two nodes.  

Segwit let that happen.

Note the "on the blockchain" in the quote that advances the mistaken notion -- which I corrected -- that ...

Oh fuck it. If you're determined to be a loon, go ahead. Knock yourself out.

But what difference does it make, jbreher, if "on the blockchain" or not, if in the end, there is a certain amount of secure utility that is achieved through a combination of solutions, including lightning network that allows a kind of pegging of bitcoin and voluntary use and relief of the blockchain that allows for greater overall Bitcoin capacity that is still largely permissionlessly secured to the blockchain - even if it happens to include some aspects that might end up being one (lightning network) or more layers out (other future developments that might be built upon lightning network)?   

Segwit might not have been absolutely required for some of these solutions, but it remains the current innovative direction of our current consensus bitcoin and the more that it is built upon the more it becomes built upon and accepted as a core aspect with its own network effects that seem to complement the underlying securing foundation, bitcoin.  Do we need to get caught up on the weeds about whether attempting to completely keep things "on the blockchain" might be a preferable solution when some alt coins, such as bcash are live testing in that direction, and that route has so far been overwhelmingly rejected by the bitcoin community?
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September 30, 2018, 02:46:52 AM

I don't recall seeing anyone post or discuss this 1broker.com seizure issue that happened about two days ago.

https://bitcoinist.com/1broker-com-domain-seized-by-the-fbi/

I don't recall such discussion either.

Then again, I don't get the relevance of J. Rando biz getting raided upon Bitcoin WO or price discussion.

Doesn't it seem relevant to the possible direction of bitcoin when branches of the US government are becoming more experienced in attempting to shut down bitcoin related businesses because of alleged failure to comply with KYC / AML laws and suggesting that American citizens are negatively affected by such practices that allow american's to participate without KYC AML (merely an email and password)?  Seems to have some possible relevance related to bitcoin use cases, bitcoin's ability to escape governmental controls and possibly on bitcoin prices, too?
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