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Question: Feb. 28 Closing Price:
<$1,000 - 9 (9%)
$2,600-$2,800 - 4 (4%)
$2,800-$3,000 - 6 (6%)
$3,000-$3,200 - 4 (4%)
$3,200-$3,400 - 6 (6%)
$3,400-$3,600 - 6 (6%)
$3,600-$3,800 - 14 (14%)
$3,800-$4,000 - 9 (9%)
$4,000-$4,200 - 16 (16%)
$4,200-$4,400 - 4 (4%)
$4,400-$4,600 - 5 (5%)
>$6,000 - 17 (17%)
Total Voters: 100

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21036386 times)
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JayJuanGee
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September 24, 2018, 09:23:16 PM



I would put odds of perhaps 10% on #2, and 45% on each of #1 and 3.

...

I am not sure whether I should have read ahead before I made my earlier (more pissed off responsive post), and these are very decent points and probability assignments, Majormax... except the I am neither a bull or a bear... comes off as too detached.  

Thanks for the detailed responses !

So we agree on the 10% probabilty (without collusion) !  

I am not sure.

We may have been referring to slightly different events, because you suggested a less than 10% likelihood of your scenario 2, but I was trying to figure out if you could NOT be so absurd as to believe that there is much less than a 10% chance of never reaching an ATH again.  I think that I was criticizing you for your gravitation towards extremes while you are attempting to suggest that you are neutral and objective; however, when, on your own, you came out with additional and more reasonable scenarios, I could see that I had gone a bit too far in my criticism of you, even though I still believe you have a tendency to make outrageous claims and to assign a higher likelihood to the happening of that outrageous claim than is really justifiable - which could cause confusion from the reader.



It is axiomatic that forecasting price movements is difficult, and its tempting to just give up on the calculations and guess, or say 'nobody knows'.  However, we have to have a stab at it somehow.

Actually, if any of us are going to attempt to reasonably participate and invest in this bitcoin game, then we both have to attempt to assign probabilities to events and to allocate our risk accordingly, otherwise we are gambling. 

Of course, we can bet all or nothing of a smaller amount of value on one set of longer term scenarios playing out and then just let the whole matter ride out in a range without getting caught up into thinking about shorter term movements, and that kind of approach could work fairly well too, yet sometimes thinking too much about what is going to happen, either long term or short term can hurt our brains and imagination, too.

We all have our own methods of forecasting. Many posters seem to me to quote some random number for future price, without any indication of how they came up with it.

That is a fair criticism, because even if I disagree with you or how you came up with your numbers, you will usually make a decent attempt at giving reasons for how you arrived at your predictions.

Some post charts, some use a form of (very valid) psycho analysis (JJG being one of the best exponents of that !) delving into the biases and the misconceptions of others. Akin to the Contrarian approach, which has a good track record.

Perhaps, I would rather call it attacking extreme positions, even though I tend to let the bull extremes slide a bit more than the bear extremes.

I have had a career and made a living in trading. My stance is this :

Oh shit!!!!  Now you are going to play the status card?   hahahahahahaha

Every future price outcome has a probability of some sort.... maybe some sort of bell curve. The regularity of a simple bell curve denies all forecasts. Without a real edge, large numbers of trades can only break-even ,  the market-makers/brokers spread becomes the aggregate loss. It becomes simply a market-makers tool for , say, derivatives pricing.

 If you can break the curve down into groups/blocks, and analyze each one individually from some other, different perspective, you may be able to diminish or enhance the likelihood of one part, which then gives a meaningful edge of sorts.

Certainly, I don't fight this kind of thinking because I understand some statistical and probability analysis, but we still have more going on in bitcoin than merely what the aggregate of market traders believe, including 1) a relatively small market that can be opportunistically manipulated to do the opposite  and 2) the likely existence of an exponential growth curve that is more difficult to see on the micro level - and even uncertainties about whether it really exists (while we are caught up in it).  Sure, we might be able to see all of these aspects in retrospect and even capture them in our statistical formulas, but in the short term, each of us also needs to decide and hope we don't get caught up within some kind of statistical anomaly that is going to look normal in retrospect, but does not seem normal while it is happening to us.
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micgoossens
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September 24, 2018, 09:38:09 PM

12288

11/09/2018 Dakustaking76 Sad
20/09/2018 Digigami Sad
22/09/2018 Agapios Sad
26/09/2018 itod
30/09/2018 DeathAngel
12/10/2018 IntroVert
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143 

getting shorter again ........           
micgoossens
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September 24, 2018, 09:39:10 PM

24777

28/08/2018 bitserve Sad
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK    for the few remaining
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September 24, 2018, 09:42:00 PM

24777

28/08/2018 bitserve Sad
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK    for the few remaining


Kinda looks like the 2019 folk have a shot, me not so much Smiley (Oct 18th) (was in 2013 day I got my KNC Jupiter ASIC miner up) Smiley

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September 24, 2018, 09:44:40 PM



JayJuanGee
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September 24, 2018, 09:45:24 PM

You likely have your finger on the pulse of the bcash community more than anyone else here. How's everything looking in regard to the possible hardfork?

Magic 8 ball says: "Concentrate and ask again".

In all due seriousness, I really don't have a good read on this yet. I've not even finished my analysis as to which way I would like to see it go.

As for my initial preferences:

My first read is that I'd like to see it tend toward no block size cap (and therefore have max block size be an emergent property of the system, a la BU). I also think I like the idea of re-enabling opcodes that were in the initial release - at least as compared to enabling a new opcode. I don't see the need for CTOR either.

All the above would put me in the SV camp, rather than the ABC camp. Or perhaps BU (hash power vote on each feature), or C0bra (no changes). But as I said, more analysis is required.

I also hold out some hope for a kumbaya moment. However, cross-camp relations don't seem to be getting any better with time.

Given that Bitmain has a split commitment to BCH and BTC, I was fairly comfortable in the hashpower battle going forward with nChain/Ayre/&co. However, with Bitmain finally successful (from all reports) with a 7nm chip, this no longer seems a safe assumption.

I guess I'll need to finish my analysis, pick a side, and get involved with the internal advocacy...

The most reasonable approach would likely be to say "fuck them all," but instead you seem to appreciate the drama and presuming that you are dealing with good actors, within the sense of the all is fair in love and war free market.
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September 24, 2018, 09:56:05 PM
Merited by bones261 (2), micgoossens (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

JayJuanGee
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September 24, 2018, 10:04:21 PM

I guess you didn't get the memo. The person who discovered and responsibly disclosed this devastating bug was a bcasher.

neener neener neener.

Even if true, that is no slam dunk in your favor... but I would concede that if true, I would have to reconsider a variety of my presumptions about bcashers and the folks who are working on it.

Time to get busy reconsiderin'  

Yeah... let's play hide the ball.  At least with any reconsideration, I could assert that I am glad that there remains some integrity, even amongst a group of deceptive scoundrels.. hahahahaha.

By the way, I am not so pessimistic about humanity as to suggest that bad people are bad through and through because even Hitler appreciated pets, and frequently, even the worst of sociopaths might still be loved by his/her mom.

Accordingly, doing the right thing in reporting rather than exploiting the found bug was good for the ecosystem, and might not have been within the parameters of what awemany considered as an acceptable approach.


Quote
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence  

Nothing extraordinary about this claim.

You're looking foolish, BTW.

Your the one who is being disingenuous (which can likely be described as foolish, too), if you supposedly have evidence and you are not sharing it.

Jeebus. Self-imposed blinders. Again. Now you're looking foolish. Again.

How could I be looking foolish, if you are the one playing "hide the ball?" 

And it's not even that the fact that it took a beeeecasher to find a potentially devastating Core bug is any great shakes. The significant thing here is that it lays bare the absurdity of the echo-chamber driven narrative of 'our devs walk on water, all other devs are slime dwelling script kiddies'.

Hm?  So this makes the core developers less godly and more human, I suppose?  And, in your view, elevates the prestige of bcash developers?

Perhaps a more reasonable conclusion is that it remains helpful to have a vast number of eyes looking at code and willing to do the right thing when they find a bug... some bugs more critical than others, as this one seemed to have been in terms of the negative potential ramifications if it had been exploited prior to being fixed.


JayJuanGee
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September 24, 2018, 10:09:40 PM


Wyckoff stuff always has seemed overly convoluted to me, but I gotta admit, that is a pretty strong match.


Yes..... but what comes next?  UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS?
micgoossens
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September 24, 2018, 10:14:36 PM



Aha al upward chart from hairry .... Thats what i was waiting for  Wink
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September 24, 2018, 10:16:37 PM

24777

28/08/2018 bitserve Sad
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK    for the few remaining


Kinda looks like the 2019 folk have a shot, me not so much Smiley (Oct 18th) (was in 2013 day I got my KNC Jupiter ASIC miner up) Smiley



? Oct 10th
You waren’t there.....? But yeah would be difficult to win anyway @october 10th  Roll Eyes
HairyMaclairy
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September 24, 2018, 10:25:39 PM

Early indications volume may have bottomed

JayJuanGee
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September 24, 2018, 10:33:54 PM

24777

28/08/2018 bitserve Sad
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK    for the few remaining


Kinda looks like the 2019 folk have a shot, me not so much Smiley (Oct 18th) (was in 2013 day I got my KNC Jupiter ASIC miner up) Smiley



? Oct 10th
You waren’t there.....? But yeah would be difficult to win anyway @october 10th  Roll Eyes

What year?

Probably the best case scenario, now (absent some ETF approval, which I am presuming is not going to happen within the next year and a half) would be to get to $24,777 by May or June (causing gentlemand to be the winner), although I might even have to back-track my own sense of what would be a "best case scenario" within our current circumstances.  

Historically, Bitcoin has had several pumps of 3x and even 10x in less than a few months - but seems that there has to be some kind of precipitating triggering event that would cause such an extreme (besides coiling and building up pressures), no?  We cannot just bounce out of this current consolidation range without at least a few back tracking before the next BIG pump is ready, right?  

Seems most reasonable that getting past $10k would not likely to be easy, then breaking above $16k would also be a bit of a journey of corrections along the way.

I would like to be wrong and see $24,777 in the new year's time frame, which even more explosive price move upwards and more bullish than bullish scenario would cause Spaceman_Spiff_Original to be the winner.
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September 24, 2018, 10:45:35 PM

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September 24, 2018, 10:53:05 PM

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September 24, 2018, 11:18:39 PM
Last edit: September 24, 2018, 11:45:38 PM by crypmike

wow. my 1000th post. pride.

Upd (for the history):



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September 24, 2018, 11:23:37 PM

We need to bounce off the lower boundary on solid volume.  If we break through the lower boundary we will probably gap down at least a couple hundred dollars.

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September 24, 2018, 11:24:26 PM


Wyckoff stuff always has seemed overly convoluted to me, but I gotta admit, that is a pretty strong match.


Yes..... but what comes next?  UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS?

Seems like UP
Also, it is confirmed by this:

Expect a continuation of the bullish movement

SHORTS amount decreased a lot despite on the falling past 3 days market
Probably MM prepares something

Also, a daily MA50 retest is nice




I'm quite bullish until 6400 level breakout
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September 24, 2018, 11:29:29 PM

We need to bounce off the lower boundary on solid volume.  If we break through the lower boundary we will probably gap down at least a couple hundred dollars.



If the volume is small it means that sales are low...
maybe this is VSA sales test
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September 24, 2018, 11:30:37 PM

VSA?
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