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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25497295 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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October 22, 2018, 09:57:26 PM


Of course, Bitcoin has a "political" component, and really it is challenging (or disrupting as some might describe it) the idea about the extent to which government and money should be separate.  

It is NOT a given that the theoretical concept that government and money should be separate is true because there has never really been any system of such, ever... at least not in the modern world and no where near on the world-wide scale that bitcoin attempts to accomplish.

Ultimately, I agree that bitcoin seems to be providing a kind of neutral opportunity for a money system that is somewhat separate from any government's ability to control it - but it surely is neither a given that bitcoin is going to be successful (or the winner in such regard) nor that various governments are not going to make systematic attempts to battle it, in the event that they figure out that they are losing any kind of meaningful control over it.

The possible government jostling for position in regards to bitcoin could well take more than 50 years to play out, in spite of the already seemingly fast growth of bitcoin, there could still be some significant battles along the way - and even a decent amount of coordination attempts between jurisdictions regarding how to "deal with" this bitcoin matter.

Surely, I am not asserting that bitcoin is going to fail because of these expected ongoing battles, and au contraire, I anticipate that current and future BTC investors are likely going to prosper stupendously (in financial and self-empowering ways) because of their ongoing investment in bitcoin, despite likely ongoing battles between status quo government and financial institutions and in spite of likely ongoing volatility that remains almost inevitable to go in both ways because of such battles and also because of the volatility of adoption of new (never before seen) systems around bitcoin.
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HairyMaclairy
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October 22, 2018, 10:02:25 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Last of the V8s (1)

Full credit for holding to your principles.

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October 22, 2018, 10:13:12 PM


Of course, Bitcoin has a "political" component, and really it is challenging (or disrupting as some might describe it) the idea about the extent to which government and money should be separate.  

It is NOT a given that the theoretical concept that government and money should be separate is true because there has never really been any system of such, ever... at least not in the modern world and no where near on the world-wide scale that bitcoin attempts to accomplish.

Ultimately, I agree that bitcoin seems to be providing a kind of neutral opportunity for a money system that is somewhat separate from any government's ability to control it - but it surely is neither a given that bitcoin is going to be successful (or the winner in such regard) nor that various governments are not going to make systematic attempts to battle it, in the event that they figure out that they are losing any kind of meaningful control over it.

The possible government jostling for position in regards to bitcoin could well take more than 50 years to play out, in spite of the already seemingly fast growth of bitcoin, there could still be some significant battles along the way - and even a decent amount of coordination attempts between jurisdictions regarding how to "deal with" this bitcoin matter.

Surely, I am not asserting that bitcoin is going to fail because of these expected ongoing battles, and au contraire, I anticipate that current and future BTC investors are likely going to prosper stupendously (in financial and self-empowering ways) because of their ongoing investment in bitcoin, despite likely ongoing battles between status quo government and financial institutions and in spite of likely ongoing volatility that remains almost inevitable to go in both ways because of such battles and also because of the volatility of adoption of new (never before seen) systems around bitcoin.

LUCKILY when BTC = sideways (boring) and WO = quiet  (following BTC), i post a few things passing me by during the day, so that you can still write the F*** out of your keyboard  Tongue  Roll Eyes  Grin        (where do you keep finding your walls of text)
JayJuanGee
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October 22, 2018, 10:15:09 PM



In response to my reading of the above post, I looked at the BAKKT website.

I seem to recall that BAKKT had announced that they were going to be offering several products beginning on about November 5, 2018.   Here's an article from early August.

Some of the products seem to be related to bitcoin custody, but weren't there some other earlier released products to come out between November 5 and December 12?

In other words, is the announcement about the December 12 future's product inconsistent with prior announcements - meaning that some of the offerings of BAKKT have been delayed?     Their blog post from October 15 (announcing Adam White from coinbase starting to work with them in early November) doesn't really provide clarity either.
Last of the V8s
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October 22, 2018, 10:20:49 PM

there was something about a delay a few days back
couldn't be arsed to link it then
can't be arsed to find it now
https://twitter.com/FedPorn/status/1054362136997175297
JayJuanGee
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October 22, 2018, 10:31:41 PM

Looking at 2014/15 bear market & comparing market phases (Price/RSI)

Simplified into 4 steps: Capitulation, Slow Bleed, Sideways & Breakout

If BTC follows the same trend, I think the next major move will be




came across this one ..... another BULLISH TA    #whenBULLISh = good for me   Grin

I will concede that overall the comparison is bullish; however, I would also speculate that the UP trend period would NOT necessarily be as DRUG out as it was between late 2015 and late 2017 - just because some of the dynamics in the whole crypto space have changed... I am NOT saying anything new here because I think that others have suggested that another UP that might be coming in the near future (perhaps imminent) would have decent chances of taking place in a more collapsed time frame.

By the way, we also know that some folks like to make their BTC price predictions around our upcoming 2020 halvening, and I don't necessarily disagree with the placement of a decent amount of weight and significance necessarily to the dynamics that come about because of the perception of decreased BTC supply and the actuality of decreased supply... yet if sophisticated money is already going to largely know about the algorithm of the BTC halvening - even though they also may attempt to play the BTC market, at the same time to attempt to manipulate down as much as they can, while they can.  In the end, part of the point that I am attempting to make here is that upcoming BTC price movements do not have to either pattern upon previous halvenings, and really BTC price dynamics (including some kind of additional exponential price growth period) could just run rough shod over the whole halvening creating a timeline and price performance pattern that does not resemble previous patterns (aka "fractals" as we have also seen them to be called... hahahahahaha).   
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October 22, 2018, 10:32:04 PM


“Liquidation as a stop”
JayJuanGee
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October 22, 2018, 10:39:23 PM


Why BTC pump based on this situation alone?  Can someone provide a quickie explanation about why BAKKT futures are significantly different from the already existing futures of CME and CBOE (that have been in place for nearly a year)?

Does the difference have to do with custody services and that settlements are made in bitcoin rather than in dollars?
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October 22, 2018, 10:42:43 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Yes 'physical delivery' is the thing.
It's a roundabout way for institutions just to buy coins.
Settled every day.
No leverage.
HairyMaclairy
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October 22, 2018, 10:51:43 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Yes 'physical delivery' is the thing.

Institutions are unlikely to take physical delivery, because they would need institutional grade infrastructure to store them.  And that is expensive.  You don’t want to be the IT director that lost $400 million in Bitcoin or allowed it to be stolen.  

But physical delivery means actual bitcoins have to held in the exchange accounts equal to the number of bitcoins traded on the exchange.  If Bakkt becomes popular, physical bitcoin gets locked up in the exchange, reducing supply in the rest of the market, driving up price.  

That is quite different from CBOE / CME which are paper trades tied to an index.  I assume Bakkt will not need to be tied to an index - it will be an independent market in its own right. 
El duderino_
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October 22, 2018, 10:54:30 PM

Looking at 2014/15 bear market & comparing market phases (Price/RSI)

Simplified into 4 steps: Capitulation, Slow Bleed, Sideways & Breakout

If BTC follows the same trend, I think the next major move will be




came across this one ..... another BULLISH TA    #whenBULLISh = good for me   Grin

I will concede that overall the comparison is bullish; however, I would also speculate that the UP trend period would NOT necessarily be as DRUG out as it was between late 2015 and late 2017 - just because some of the dynamics in the whole crypto space have changed... I am NOT saying anything new here because I think that others have suggested that another UP that might be coming in the near future (perhaps imminent) would have decent chances of taking place in a more collapsed time frame.

By the way, we also know that some folks like to make their BTC price predictions around our upcoming 2020 halvening, and I don't necessarily disagree with the placement of a decent amount of weight and significance necessarily to the dynamics that come about because of the perception of decreased BTC supply and the actuality of decreased supply... yet if sophisticated money is already going to largely know about the algorithm of the BTC halvening - even though they also may attempt to play the BTC market, at the same time to attempt to manipulate down as much as they can, while they can.  In the end, part of the point that I am attempting to make here is that upcoming BTC price movements do not have to either pattern upon previous halvenings, and really BTC price dynamics (including some kind of additional exponential price growth period) could just run rough shod over the whole halvening creating a timeline and price performance pattern that does not resemble previous patterns (aka "fractals" as we have also seen them to be called... hahahahahaha).   
I also don’t believe price follows previous patterns always.... just a new market changin all the time with user count increasing every day etc.......
JayJuanGee
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October 22, 2018, 10:56:39 PM

There's a whole world full of wall observers out there just waiting to sell the next bull run. And I should know. Those of us still hodling the bag missed the chance of a lifetime. That's the short and long of it until I'm proven wrong.

Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Oqrd4GmZ3g

Yeah right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Recall the last price rise that started in about September/October 2015 - and we did not really realize it until about May 2016?  During that time, there were all kinds of price points in which bitcoin naysayers (and alt coin pumpers) were suggesting that the quantity of BTC sellers was going to be overwhelming - $500, $1,000, $3k, $7k, $10k $15k, and so far the only one that has been correct was $20k (temporarily I might assert).

So, get the fuck out of here with proclamation of overwhelming current BTC holders outnumbering the folks FOMOing in to BTC.  Good luck if you rely on such propaganda and end up selling too many BTC at too low of a price and end up having NONE left to sell in the supra $30k prices.
JayJuanGee
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October 22, 2018, 11:03:35 PM


Of course, Bitcoin has a "political" component, and really it is challenging (or disrupting as some might describe it) the idea about the extent to which government and money should be separate.  

It is NOT a given that the theoretical concept that government and money should be separate is true because there has never really been any system of such, ever... at least not in the modern world and no where near on the world-wide scale that bitcoin attempts to accomplish.

Ultimately, I agree that bitcoin seems to be providing a kind of neutral opportunity for a money system that is somewhat separate from any government's ability to control it - but it surely is neither a given that bitcoin is going to be successful (or the winner in such regard) nor that various governments are not going to make systematic attempts to battle it, in the event that they figure out that they are losing any kind of meaningful control over it.

The possible government jostling for position in regards to bitcoin could well take more than 50 years to play out, in spite of the already seemingly fast growth of bitcoin, there could still be some significant battles along the way - and even a decent amount of coordination attempts between jurisdictions regarding how to "deal with" this bitcoin matter.

Surely, I am not asserting that bitcoin is going to fail because of these expected ongoing battles, and au contraire, I anticipate that current and future BTC investors are likely going to prosper stupendously (in financial and self-empowering ways) because of their ongoing investment in bitcoin, despite likely ongoing battles between status quo government and financial institutions and in spite of likely ongoing volatility that remains almost inevitable to go in both ways because of such battles and also because of the volatility of adoption of new (never before seen) systems around bitcoin.

LUCKILY when BTC = sideways (boring) and WO = quiet  (following BTC), i post a few things passing me by during the day, so that you can still write the F*** out of your keyboard  Tongue  Roll Eyes  Grin        (where do you keep finding your walls of text)

Just random stream of consciousness.. hahahahaha
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October 22, 2018, 11:11:09 PM

So, get the fuck out of here

You make an interesting point.



I'll get my over-coat...
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October 22, 2018, 11:19:06 PM

via Imgflip Meme Generator


https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-bitcoin-become-a-dominant-currency-1540174021?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/qf69dgve5i
JayJuanGee
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October 22, 2018, 11:34:06 PM

So, get the fuck out of here

You make an interesting point.



I'll get my over-coat...

Maybe some kind of armor suit would be better?
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October 22, 2018, 11:55:24 PM

The janitor not only did not rise from his seat when he passed, but never even glanced at him, as if only a fly had flown through the reception-room.
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October 23, 2018, 01:32:27 AM

Risk premium on Tether slowly dropping following last week BFX panic

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October 23, 2018, 01:34:00 AM

The janitor not only did not rise from his seat when he passed, but never even glanced at him, as if only a fly had flown through the reception-room.

 I literally just read that story while attempting to find a larger version of Searing's avatar.  Wow.
HairyMaclairy
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October 23, 2018, 01:44:49 AM

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