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Question: What do you think most of the Mt. Gox recipients will do upon receiving their BTC/BCH?
HODL - 54 (61.4%)
DUMP - 34 (38.6%)
Total Voters: 88

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21074715 times)
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October 05, 2018, 10:20:20 PM

via Imgflip Meme Generator

#bitcoin halving: only 19 months to go ... we are in the green zone!!

By that chart, we get a  largely sad pattern (to the extent that we can count on a pattern of two), because the "real up" does not seem to come until the halvening has already taken place.
It's more like... We were in uptrends one year before and after a halving.

One year before and after the 1st halving:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#czsg2011-11-28zeg2013-11-28ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
One year before and after the 2nd halving:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/krakenUSD#czsg2015-07-09zeg2017-07-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

And in a downtrend during years two and three after the 1st halving:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#czsg2013-11-28zeg2015-11-28ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

That's how it looks until now starting with year two after the 2nd halving:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#czsg2017-07-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

After an extended uptrend, we're going sideways until now. Boring, I know.


But what does it all mean?   

A pattern of two constitutes some kind of a significant pattern these days?  A kind of binding (or compelling) authority? 

(oh we are going onto a 3rd similar pattern, which is showing similarities to the first two, I forgot, but we still are not through the third pattern yet, right?)
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October 05, 2018, 10:20:28 PM

WEEKEND PUMP incoming!!!

It's not officially a pump until @bigrekts sees some blood.

Hoping for a Tweet any time now...

Let's see how the day closes
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October 05, 2018, 10:22:03 PM

^

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October 05, 2018, 10:31:05 PM

These prints goes viral in UK, nice

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October 05, 2018, 10:32:56 PM

[edited out]
This is confirmed for a long time that history keeps repeating itself. All Bitcoin price spikes during all these years looking this same and keep repeating this same pattern. I hope this time we will not see an exception to this rule.

Isn't the more accurate assertion that it rhymes rather than repeats?

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October 05, 2018, 10:34:46 PM
Merited by micgoossens (1)

BitMex right now...

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October 05, 2018, 10:38:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

BitMex right now...


Don't know why, this reminds me of the Mayor.
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October 05, 2018, 10:41:43 PM

BitMex right now...


Don't know why, this reminds me of the Mayor.

Yep, that evil genius got mine too.  Bless him!
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In "capitulation" mode until further notice. HODL.


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October 05, 2018, 10:58:00 PM
Merited by Dunkelheit667 (1)

Seems awful quiet 'round here. 

Who cancelled the weekend pumps, did Rosewater take them with him..?  We should have frisked him on the way out.

Probably. I guess right now is where people gave up and nobody wants to buy in. This might go on for a while. I wonder if bitcoin will ever experience huge pumps like in the past? Those were the days.... At best now we will only have a linear increase.

It might go on for a while, but don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

There are only 21 million bitcoins and most have already been mined which is not enough for every entity that wants one.  If you see how many exchanges, institutions and governments are now forced to take notice, it can't be stopped or ignored.

Yes, it looks flat just now - but don't think the fireworks are over.  They aren't yet... Not by a long chalk.

We have some pain still to go through, but there will be prices in future that will dwarf the last ATH. This has always have been so, and I can only see many thousands of reasons why this process shall be seen again.

What are you talking about? Everybody knows Bitcoin is dead now. There is no hope.

Damn - I forgot to be pessimistic to bring on the capitulation, sorry! Wink

But you know what? I think history is not simply a fractal pattern every time.  I think a lot of people REALLY DID think it was 'all over' last time - but 'this time' they patently do not.  And those, new to crypto who are unsure - are just waiting to see what happens.

So this time, as soon as it looks like the bear market is over and it's going back up, the scramble to grab the last coins available could be brutal. 

Hairy (and others) who I have tended to agree with, look correct - that is; that we need a crypto capitulation, a 'crypto winter'.  So, we have to see what happens in January to confirm the pattern of 2014 / 2015.  And this may come to pass, yes.

But think:  if people assume this, but if after January, things are NOT the same - then they will get nervous about missing the chance to accumulate.   The LAST chance to accumulate?  Then it's a game of chicken.  No one can drive Bitcoin to zero, there is a base level with too many buyers to get even close.  But it will only take a few funds, or one country to see BTC as 'too good to miss' for the shit to get real.

FOMO, when there are only a few coins left?  It will come, of course it will.  When?  Either after the fractal of a January dip ends the bear market, or (perhaps) the absence of the January dip. Either way, it seems we might not have not got that long to go.  Any recession in the fiat economy is another factor that will move people away from trust in the legacy system and towards real, hard money: Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin dead?  No, of course not.  And if everyone knows that, then of course, ultimately its value can only increase.  Such is the genius of its design. 

Do what the fuck you want with your life and your resources, but one thing that makes ultimate sense is to make sure you keep hold of a little Bitcoin. No matter what.

/end of sermon



That's exactly what worries me. This time no one really think Bitcoin could simply vanish. Everybody is expecting a surge any moment in time or, at least, is sure that Bitcoin will hit new ATHs in the next few years. In 2014 most people just didn't know if it was all over. That maybe Bitcoin was really dying for good. Huge uncertainty to say the least.

This time there is so much confidence.... it's not a matter of IF anymore, just WHEN.... and that difference is somewhat scary.

How are the "weak hands" going to capitulate with all this optimism? Can the price keep rising without a real capitulation? Well, maybe, but again that would be a new scenario unlike past Bitcoin history.

Anyway, even if the price just stagnates around this level for a few more months could probably grind the nerves of many of those weak hands in a sort of slow-mo capitulation.

The only thing I am sure is that we needed this correction. The thing I am not so sure is if we need a deeper (or longer in time) one. Still too much hope... me included.
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October 05, 2018, 11:11:31 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Seems awful quiet 'round here. 

Who cancelled the weekend pumps, did Rosewater take them with him..?  We should have frisked him on the way out.

Probably. I guess right now is where people gave up and nobody wants to buy in. This might go on for a while. I wonder if bitcoin will ever experience huge pumps like in the past? Those were the days.... At best now we will only have a linear increase.

It might go on for a while, but don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

There are only 21 million bitcoins and most have already been mined which is not enough for every entity that wants one.  If you see how many exchanges, institutions and governments are now forced to take notice, it can't be stopped or ignored.

Yes, it looks flat just now - but don't think the fireworks are over.  They aren't yet... Not by a long chalk.

We have some pain still to go through, but there will be prices in future that will dwarf the last ATH. This has always have been so, and I can only see many thousands of reasons why this process shall be seen again.

What are you talking about? Everybody knows Bitcoin is dead now. There is no hope.

Damn - I forgot to be pessimistic to bring on the capitulation, sorry! Wink

But you know what? I think history is not simply a fractal pattern every time.  I think a lot of people REALLY DID think it was 'all over' last time - but 'this time' they patently do not.  And those, new to crypto who are unsure - are just waiting to see what happens.

So this time, as soon as it looks like the bear market is over and it's going back up, the scramble to grab the last coins available could be brutal. 

Hairy (and others) who I have tended to agree with, look correct - that is; that we need a crypto capitulation, a 'crypto winter'.  So, we have to see what happens in January to confirm the pattern of 2014 / 2015.  And this may come to pass, yes.

But think:  if people assume this, but if after January, things are NOT the same - then they will get nervous about missing the chance to accumulate.   The LAST chance to accumulate?  Then it's a game of chicken.  No one can drive Bitcoin to zero, there is a base level with too many buyers to get even close.  But it will only take a few funds, or one country to see BTC as 'too good to miss' for the shit to get real.

FOMO, when there are only a few coins left?  It will come, of course it will.  When?  Either after the fractal of a January dip ends the bear market, or (perhaps) the absence of the January dip. Either way, it seems we might not have not got that long to go.  Any recession in the fiat economy is another factor that will move people away from trust in the legacy system and towards real, hard money: Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin dead?  No, of course not.  And if everyone knows that, then of course, ultimately its value can only increase.  Such is the genius of its design. 

Do what the fuck you want with your life and your resources, but one thing that makes ultimate sense is to make sure you keep hold of a little Bitcoin. No matter what.

/end of sermon



That's exactly what worries me. This time no one really think Bitcoin could simply vanish. Everybody is expecting a surge any moment in time or, at least, is sure that Bitcoin will hit new ATHs in the next few years. In 2014 most people just didn't know if it was all over. That maybe Bitcoin was really dying for good. Huge uncertainty to say the least.

This time there is so much confidence.... it's not a matter of IF anymore, just WHEN.... and that difference is somewhat scary.

How are the "weak hands" going to capitulate with all this optimism? Can the price keep rising without a real capitulation? Well, maybe, but again that would be a new scenario unlike past Bitcoin history.

Anyway, even if the price just stagnates around this level for a few more months could probably grind the nerves of many of those weak hands in a sort of slow-mo capitulation.

The only thing I am sure is that we needed this correction. The thing I am not so sure is if we need a deeper (or longer in time) one. Still too much hope... me included.

Sure, it's a valid and fairly widely held view.  I guess I am saying, there might be more people wanting 'in' than can be accommodated and that the capitulation we all assume is 'necessary' in actually why it will not happen.   Maybe, so many expect it that it will happen (so they know it's time to get in) that others will front-run it and mean it won't happen at all.

January is an obvious point if we are following past years - most of them have been at least an annual low.  But if it isn't....?  We are also overdue for a recession.  If the world financial system wobbles again, and the world is hardly looking stable, well...

I am being contrarian, but I see 230 exchanges and think - 'jeez, there just arn't enough coins for this much interest'.  Just a point of view, yes - but maybe we're wrong and that capitulation has already happened....
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October 05, 2018, 11:17:04 PM

If you follow the collectibles market here some collectors are starting to sell off expensive collections of Casascius, Kialaras, etc. I consider this bullish because they are indicating they would rather hold bitcoin at this time than the collectible coins, and expect bitcoin to appreciate more than their collection over the next year or so. Call it a possible leading indicator.
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no degradation


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October 05, 2018, 11:27:45 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

But what does it all mean?  

A pattern of two constitutes some kind of a significant pattern these days?  A kind of binding (or compelling) authority?  

(oh we are going onto a 3rd similar pattern, which is showing similarities to the first two, I forgot, but we still are not through the third pattern yet, right?)
42? Wink It's just an observation, nothing more or less. The observer decides if the observed brought any meaningfull information to his eyes and may use them to make decisions.

What I see is the following pattern: uptrend1 - halfing1 - uptrend1 - downtrend1 - downtrend1 - uptrend2 - halfing2 - uptrend2 - downtrend2/sidewayish

My conclusion is (more or less), uptrends around a halfing make sense (supply and demand). As long as the 'fundamentals' don't change, there should be a new uptrend, no later then the next halfing.

Can we go lower until then? Sure. Can we go just sideways? Yes (IMHO this would simply indicate a 'stronger' sentiment then we have had after the first halfing).

What does all this mean to me just right now? I will continue hodling and try to accumulate more with pocket fiat money in case we change into a clear(er) downtrend. If the next uptrend starts sooner, I'm fine.

I know, this sentiment is nothing new in here. Wink
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October 05, 2018, 11:40:47 PM

https://twitter.com/novogratz/status/1048344624404856832
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Michael Novogratz @novogratz
48m minutes ago


6850 is the level that matters in #BTC.  Take it out and we will see a real move.
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October 06, 2018, 12:03:13 AM

[edited out]

That's exactly what worries me. This time no one really think Bitcoin could simply vanish. Everybody is expecting a surge any moment in time or, at least, is sure that Bitcoin will hit new ATHs in the next few years. In 2014 most people just didn't know if it was all over. That maybe Bitcoin was really dying for good. Huge uncertainty to say the least.

Yes.  A certain quantity of resolutions in the minds of folks to recognize that there is more to bitcoin than what was originally perceived by a vast majority of folks, even though some of that lack of confidence still exists, it is not anywhere near the levels that it was a few years ago... and hence the price increase of a bit more than 20x (but that doesn't really say whether a 20x plus price increase is a good current valuation).


This time there is so much confidence.... it's not a matter of IF anymore, just WHEN.... and that difference is somewhat scary.

How are the "weak hands" going to capitulate with all this optimism? Can the price keep rising without a real capitulation? Well, maybe, but again that would be a new scenario unlike past Bitcoin history.

Your framing of the situation, which largely seems accurate, and your subsequent questions in this part seems to establish a recognition that there remains considerable tension in the proposed thesis that the BTC "blow off top" has already occurred, and if the "blow off top" has not yet occurred, then the lesser resistance remains as UP rather than as DOWN... and in the meantime, the BTC price is floating around in a kind of consolidation in order to attempt to figure out which direction has the least resistance... test, test, test...  

The whales might have some ideas about what they are going to do and some ideas about probability that they are going to be successful, but likely even they have difficulties knowing for sure until they try it out and see how much "give" there is in the price direction that they are attempting to push.


Anyway, even if the price just stagnates around this level for a few more months could probably grind the nerves of many of those weak hands in a sort of slow-mo capitulation.

If the BTC price continues to "stagnate" or consolidate in this area, it can cause either phenomena - bearish sentiments or bullish sentiments... So "stagnating" does not really provide a convincing story for either direction... even though some FUD (or FOMO) spreaders would like to frame it as if it favors their preferred price direction.

The only thing I am sure is that we needed this correction.

That's crazy talk.

Yes, in retrospect, we know that the last run from $6k to $19,666 ran out of steam, but there is really no way of knowing how much "we needed" this correction, except to observe that once such correction happened, it became a part of the history (or the current dynamics, since we are still within the correction and can't really have enough information about what to call it because we don't know for sure where it is going, except to have some theories about which scenarios (in the next legs) seem more probable from each  of our personal perspectives (which vary from person to person, too, and some persons are more genuine in their sharing of their actual perspective(s) rather than pushing some half-baked points.

Seems that one of the good things about this particular thread is that we seem to have a lot of decent member posters who are really attempting to grapple and to push their genuine ideas about bitcoin and bitcoin price dynamics, in spite of differences of opinion that come up from time to time and sometimes come out strenuously.... ... you fuckers!!!!!    Wink


The thing I am not so sure is if we need a deeper (or longer in time) one. Still too much hope... me included.

This concept of "what is needed" seems to attempt to apply too much absolutism about any prediction that you attempt to make.  

Even looking at "what is needed" after the fact can be a bit too much and problematic, like I already asserted above.

It surely does not hurt to have some hope, because it is quite possible that even though currently a majority of folks remain bearish, they could well end up being wrong while BTC price slowly trickles up and they continue to wait for a meaningful correction that does not come....


Since we have been largely bouncing around in a kind of consolidation since early February, with a few false break outs, subsequently discovered, fuck the laggers who have not prepared for BTC price movements in both directions, including UP from here and are betting too much on down when the odds are more reasonably in the range of 50/50 (at least thinking short to medium term) rather than any kind of semblance of downward's "necessity."
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October 06, 2018, 12:05:04 AM
Merited by bones261 (2)

I have been trading binary options for a long time and understand the technical analysis and the formation of various shapes. If you look at the bitcoin chart now, the price moves within the corridor. Like the man said above, now goes flat. This of course worries me, because it can be broken through the level of support. This is how the market works. But if you look at the chart in the expanded form, now a bullish flag or triangle is formed. This figure is called differently. And the pulse time is approaching. Either a strong impulse up or breaking through the bottom, with a rapid rollback up.


Naturally, I really want the price of bitcoin to grow up, but I am a realist, I see a chart and I understand that we will see new highs only next year. Winter this year (even in January) the price of bitcoin will be around 8-10 thousand dollars. This is purely my forecast for six months.
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October 06, 2018, 12:15:07 AM

But what does it all mean?  

A pattern of two constitutes some kind of a significant pattern these days?  A kind of binding (or compelling) authority?  

(oh we are going onto a 3rd similar pattern, which is showing similarities to the first two, I forgot, but we still are not through the third pattern yet, right?)
42? Wink It's just an observation, nothing more or less. The observer decides if the observed brought any meaningfull information to his eyes and may use them to make decisions.

What I see is the following pattern: uptrend1 - halfing1 - uptrend1 - downtrend1 - downtrend1 - uptrend2 - halfing2 - uptrend2 - downtrend2/sidewayish

My conclusion is (more or less), uptrends around a halfing make sense (supply and demand). As long as the 'fundamentals' don't change, there should be a new uptrend, no later then the next halfing.

Can we go lower until then? Sure. Can we go just sideways? Yes (IMHO this would simply indicate a 'stronger' sentiment then we have had after the first halfing).

What does all this mean to me just right now? I will continue hodling and try to accumulate more with pocket fiat money in case we change into a clear(er) downtrend. If the next uptrend starts sooner, I'm fine.

I know, this sentiment is nothing new in here. Wink

Don't get me wrong.

I am considerably optimistic that the physical cutting of the supply of new bitcoin in half every four years causes upwards BTC price pressures, yet like you seem to suggest, it remains a bit clear about the exact timing, even though somehow cyclically, in that four year period, there ends up being constriction in the new supply of bitcoin (inflation rate). 

I recall, also, a lot of the bullshit discussion points around the time of the last halvening that miners were going to become less incentivized to mine bitcoins because of the halvening of the reward - which made little to no sense to me. 

I also recall some posters here, who were suggesting that the halvening itself might be a bit bearish in the actual time of the halvening, but several months down the road, we were going to find a kind of reality of fewer new coins available which caused significant upwards BTC price pressures that likely contributed to inabilities for bear whales to keep the BTC price down... a kind of coiling effect.. that is sometimes difficult to appreciate while you are within it.
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October 06, 2018, 01:01:00 AM


Let's be clear as to people's motivations.  DonAlt runs paid groups for noobs.  He doesn't make any money in a bear market.  

What!?? What kind of comment is that?

Could you indicate which payment group is that?


Since I follow DonAlt I have never seen any publicity to that group.
On the other hand, it is one of the most respected traders in CT, which means that it has probably gained much more than the average trader in this bear market. It provides very useful and quality information and has a very good disposition to answer comments about trade questions.
Now he has even created a Telegram group that is free in which he updates his thoughts and market analysis.


If you do not provide evidence about that payment group, you are simply spreading your misinformed shit.
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October 06, 2018, 01:28:18 AM

don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

I've already started to move my vast wealth over to effeminate moustaches and goose-boots. What did I miss?

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October 06, 2018, 02:05:46 AM

https://twitter.com/misir_mahmudov/status/1048282030486802435
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4/ Fiat currencies, in their current incarnation, have been around for only 47 years. They are a temporary monopolist perversion enabled by the centralizing forces of the Industrial Age.
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October 06, 2018, 02:23:24 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1), bitserve (1), micgoossens (1)

don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

I've already started to move my vast wealth over to effeminate moustaches and goose-boots. What did I miss?



  You missed the weekend pump!  Here's a recap:


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