Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

Didn't see this posted yet, the correlation with halving while not too surprising is still interesting, keep HODL'n...

While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-analysis-every-bitcoin-holder-makes-a-profit-after-1-335-days

This is nonsense.
No evidence, no rationale.
It's like driving straight on a road because on the the rear mirror it has always been a straight road.

[1607028906]

1607028906

[1607028906]

1607028906

[1607028906]

1607028906

[bkbirge]

Didn't see this posted yet, the correlation with halving while not too surprising is still interesting, keep HODL'n...

While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-analysis-every-bitcoin-holder-makes-a-profit-after-1-335-days

This is nonsense.
No evidence, no rationale.
It's like driving straight on a road because on the the rear mirror it has always been a straight road.

Or like drawing a straight line through a price chart of the last 4 years and expecting it to still be straight 4 years from now.

[Phil_S]

Can you quantify the 'good chance' and why the week time duration of your prediction?

It's a gut feeling, not quantifiable math. And it's not a week but "at least a week", so could be longer. Maybe 2-3 weeks.

I think the analogy works when you consider the prediction is not whether the price is close to short term past but whether it moves up or down relative. That's the coin flip part. At least that's how I understood it.

There are different types of predictions, from unreliable short-term predictions for traders, to pretty reliable long-term predictions for us holders. It would be wrong to just dismiss all of them.

[bkbirge]

There are different types of predictions, from unreliable short-term predictions for traders, to pretty reliable long-term predictions for us holders. It would be wrong to just dismiss all of them.

Totally agree, that's why I find the topic pretty interesting.

[El duderino_]

#Gold made sense when transactions were physical interactions, but our digital world demands a form of digital gold. #DropGold

https://dropgold.com/drop-gold/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=2019_q3_MS

[jbreher]

If jbreher uses his intelligence to deceive people

Not at all. At least never intentionally.

or to to get caught in stupid-ass technical arguments

I guess it takes a self-described technical ignoramus to openly refer to technical arguments as 'stupid-ass'.

you have a significantly large amount of misleading and misinformation in your posts

You are wrong. There is no such thing as factual information that is misleading or misinforming. I present facts, and leave the editorializing to a minimum. Any mis- is in your misattribution of ulterior motive to my actions, which causes you to invent things in my writings that are not there.

Regarding your stupid-ass technical arguments, they frequently are stupid-ass because they either are misleading or they are put too much weight on improbable events, which is another form of misleading.

Again, I present mostly scenarios within the range of possibility. I rarely assign probabilities to such events.

OTOH, to outwardly shame the presenter of truthful possibilities is indeed in itself a misleading activity, largely the domain of those trying to prevent the truth from becoming widely known.

Since it seems quite unlikely that you are going to get banned,

Dream on, compadre, dream on.

Remember Jstolfi?  

What the hell does Stolfi have to do with this? Absolutely nothing. Stolfi was rational, but he worked from flawed axioms - to wit:
- Bitcoin is merely a currency at best.
- Deflationary currencies can never work in any role in economic society.

Nay, the axiom that we seem to disagree upon would seem to be my belief that actual utility matters.

[jbreher]

JJG, you may be a bit too wordy, but I'm glad that you spare the time to call out the destructive bullshit that jbreher spews in order to manipulate others. I am also thankful for Hairy's contributions as well. 

Yeah. Too bad for your camp of witch-burners that JJG never actually addresses any of the points made, and that when Hairy does, it backfires spectacularly due to his/her lack of grasp of the very topics s/he utters.

[nutildah]

I am wondering if Tomlin is pulling the masterstroke and using AB as a radioactive Trojan Horse to take down several teams in the league and drive them into dysfunction. Belichick has superpowers of making things go right, but AB has superpowers of turning things into horseshit, its a question of who will have the strongest superpower. Its Bill's greatest test. AB is one of the biggest pieces of shit in sports that I can remember in my lifetime. Raiders were dumb to sign him, but Im pissed how he screwed them over.

Hey Lambie (and other NFL fans), I started my own NFL predictions thread in the Gambling section, but its pretty slow going over there. Feel free to stop by and drop some of your wisdom if you like. I'm always looking for insights about picks, I'm sure others are too:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5179018

I have deduced that they're talking about a sport.

The only sport where I can sit through the whole damn thing.

It is a bit weird that Americans decided to adopt the word "football" for their sport. The foot connecting with the ball is a rarer part of the action.

[Gahs]

The Bakkt Warehouse is active for futures

Bitcoin deposited at our Warehouse is protected by a $125 million insurance policy

https://twitter.com/bakkt/status/1171040208105758720?s=21

I fear BTC price will tumble significantly when Bakkt swings full gear.
At least that's what happened back in 2017 when CBOE & CME launched futures trading.

[fillippone]

Brace Yourself: Institutional Investors are coming:
 Bitcoin Futures Trading on CME Hints at Influx of Institutional Money

During the month of August, over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin futures contracts have been traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. With each contract representing the right but not the obligation to purchase 5 BTC at a given price, over 100,000 futures contracts were traded on the platform.

The year-to-date numbers are apparently even more impressive. CME managing director Tim McCourt told Forbes contributor Benjamin Pirus that so far this year, Bitcoin futures are averaging more than 7,000 contracts per day on the platform.

This is meaningful because retail investors don’t have easy access to CME futures trading, so this growth doesn’t represent the participation of the average crypto user. Most futures trading on the CME platform comes from institutional investors and wealthy accredited investors, audiences that Bitcoiners have long been trying to win over.

Another two news are worth noting today on the same topic:

https://www.coindesk.com/uk-fund-that-aims-to-capitalize-on-crypto-volatity-raises-50-million

U.K.-licensed Nickel Asset Management says it has raised $50 million for a fund aimed to make profits off the volatility of cryptocurrencies.

“Our vision is that it’s simply a matter of time until digital assets become part of institutional portfolio allocation for forward-looking investors around the world, and we aim to build an institutional-quality gateway to this high-octane world of digital assets.”

The Bakkt Warehouse is active for futures

Bitcoin deposited at our Warehouse is protected by a $125 million insurance policy

https://twitter.com/Bakkt/status/1171040208105758720


These are two very important news: Ecosystem for institutional investor is slowly being built up.

It's very different from 2016, when CME futures gave the easy way to short the BITCOIN.
Now that selling pressure is already discounted on the market: the buying pressure on the market because of QE, Negative Rates, Geopolitical Risks, Inflation risks, Halving etc... is instead looming on the side, just waiting for the doors to open.

[lightfoot]

#Gold made sense when transactions were physical interactions, but our digital world demands a form of digital gold. #DropGold

https://dropgold.com/drop-gold/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=2019_q3_MS

Do you have any idea what a pain in the ass it is to get rid of gold?

[gentlemand]

A good opsec security is just a part of the equation trying to avoiding crimes involving crypto’s happens to you:

Norwegian bitcoin millionaire jumped down 2 stories from his balcony after man with shotgun broke in to his house. This is why you never tell anyone you own BTC

https://twitter.com/redditbtc/status/1170809574607249409?s=21

This is my suggestion.
Fillippone, your fellow Mexican WO pal.
Going to a trekking in Yucatàn trying to forget the fact I just lost my private keys in a boating accident!


EDIT: for the few of you who do not speak norvegian:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/norweigan-bitcoin-millionaire-jumps-from-balcony-to-flee-armed-burglar

Nothing to do with Opsec. The guy is in Norway. In Norway everyone can see each others' salaries and tax payments. All the would be thief had to do was look up crypto companies and see how much money they were reporting.

Utterly barking.

[bkbirge]

#Gold made sense when transactions were physical interactions, but our digital world demands a form of digital gold. #DropGold

https://dropgold.com/drop-gold/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=2019_q3_MS

Do you have any idea what a pain in the ass it is to get rid of gold?

Just leave it on the curb, I'll come by for pickup after work.

[lightfoot]

#Gold made sense when transactions were physical interactions, but our digital world demands a form of digital gold. #DropGold

https://dropgold.com/drop-gold/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=2019_q3_MS

Do you have any idea what a pain in the ass it is to get rid of gold?

Just leave it on the curb, I'll come by for pickup after work.

Sure. Just send me the spot value in bitcoin and I will do. Not a problem at all, PM me for the bitcoin address.

Hell, pay for shipping and I'll chuck it in a box for you.

[El duderino_]

LoL, OT but I do see Some humor here 

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/derektmead/status/1171102479985119232?s=21

[El duderino_]

Indeed what an individual(s) Satoshi is!!!!

Not likely there would be more like this....

Satoshi wanted to signal to everyone that Bitcoin wasn’t a scam:

- No premine
- 2 months heads up before launching the network
- Coins had no value for 1.5 years so circulated freely (not replicable)
- Unlike every other founder in history, Satoshi never cashed out

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1171060693094797312?s=21

[mindrust]

So you think Bitcoin is not known in #Turkey. Check this and see the whole video on our youtube channel 🔥🚀🔥 https://youtu.be/kApH8rxSNyk #bitcoin #thebitcoinfamily #sharingiscaring

https://twitter.com/Diditaihuttu/status/1170656160061558784?s=20

The street you see in the video, I used to drink, play guitar at the bars for beer money when I was younger. It is basically where the youth live or I should say, it used to. (they still do, but It is not as great) Now it is a damn refugee camp.

Even though I still live very near, I didn't set my foot there in the last 2 years probably. That Syria stuff fucked everything up here.

The Dutch guy's flat has a nice Bosphorus view though. Cool.

[rebal15]

Indeed what an individual(s) Satoshi is!!!!

Not likely there would be more like this....

Satoshi wanted to signal to everyone that Bitcoin wasn’t a scam:

- No premine
- 2 months heads up before launching the network
- Coins had no value for 1.5 years so circulated freely (not replicable)
- Unlike every other founder in history, Satoshi never cashed out

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1171060693094797312?s=21

Satoshi never cashed out.
Danhel knows who Satoshi is. Dan has financial information about Satoshi.

[El duderino_]

Bitcoin is going to start getting gradually treated as a safe haven asset *just in time* for a generational Blow-Off Top in the current monetary system.

7 billion people & their governments chasing true scarcity with infinite monopoly money.

All about real vs. paper assets now.

https://twitter.com/muststopmurad/status/1171110284498542592?s=21

[JayJuanGee]

Haven't really made my mind about it but for now I am planning to dump %15-20 of my stash for every $10k increment starting from $50k and make the final blow at $100k.

I think that you are: 1) valuing your wealth too much in dollars, 2) attempting to time the BTC price movement too much, which is a) failing to account for the possibility of BTC prices going above $100k and b) not going to be able to profit if BTC prices go above $100k.  Furthermore, if you establish a more sound plan, you will both be able to support the bitcoin infrastructure more and possibly even personally profit more, too.  

O.k.  I do not mean this as any kind of hostile message.  Instead, I intend to be a friendly collaborator to outline a possible better approach and way of thinking about cashing out during such uncertain BTC price dynamic times.

Accordingly, I suggest that you tweak your plan a little bit in order that you are not engaging in as much all or nothing kind of thinking and you strive to always keep some stash in bitcoin.  Of course, do whatever the fuck you like, it is your life... hahahhahahaha  This is not financial advice...hahahahahaha... even though it is.  

Anyhow, instead of calculating dumping 15% to 20% of your stash from the amount of your original stash amount, calculate 15% to 25% from your stash balance as it evolves.  This is not going to cause a whole lot of difference in the amount that you cash out, but it will allow you to meaningfully stay in bitcoin in a variety of circumstances and thus to sufficiently hedge yourself.   Of course, you can tweak the numbers that I have outlined.

In other words, if you sell between 15% to 25% (which  I am going to readjust to 20% for calculation purposes) from the readjusted balance of your stash, you will never run out of bitcoin.  

Also, you are using $10k price increments which has the problem of 1) round numbers and 2) the problem of an amount that is set in terms of dollars which causes a lowering of the percentage each time you execute, so instead of calculating exact dollar increments, maybe you should start out selling BTC at around $47.5k (just in case BTC prices never (or take a long time) end up breaking above $50k), and then use something like 20% increments.  I got this 20% based on your $10k/$50k which is more or less 20% (of course, you can make the percentage lower or higher after you play around with it).

So I am giving a ballpark in which your sell ladder would look something like this:

Sell Price    BTC balance    BTCSell Amt  Pfolio$Value soldValue   soldTotal $47,478.00   7.00000000      0.00000000   $332,346.00   $0.00           $0.00 $47,478.00   7.00000000      1.40000000   $332,346.00   $66,469.20   $66,469.20 $56,973.60   5.60000000      1.12000000   $319,052.16   $63,810.43   $130,279.63 $68,368.32   4.48000000      0.89600000   $306,290.07   $61,258.01   $191,537.65 $82,041.98   3.58400000      0.71680000   $294,038.47   $58,807.69   $250,345.34 $98,450.38   2.86720000      0.57344000   $282,276.93   $56,455.39   $306,800.73 $118,140.46   2.29376000      0.45875200   $270,985.85   $54,197.17   $360,997.90 $141,768.55   1.83500800      0.36700160   $260,146.42   $52,029.28   $413,027.18 $170,122.26   1.46800640      0.29360128   $249,740.56   $49,948.11   $462,975.29 $204,146.71   1.17440512      0.23488102   $239,750.94   $47,950.19   $510,925.48 $244,976.05   0.93952410      0.18790482   $230,160.90   $46,032.18   $556,957.66 $293,971.26   0.75161928      0.15032386   $220,954.47   $44,190.89   $601,148.56 $352,765.51   0.60129542      0.12025908   $212,116.29   $42,423.26   $643,571.81 $423,318.62   0.48103634      0.09620727   $203,631.64   $40,726.33   $684,298.14 $507,982.34   0.38482907      0.07696581   $195,486.37   $39,097.27   $723,395.42 $609,578.81   0.30786326      0.06157265   $187,666.92   $37,533.38   $760,928.80

As you can see from the chart, you would start out at some number, such as $47,478 and you would have a certain number of BTC that for this example I hypothesize to be 7BTC.   You would sell in 20% price increments 20% of the value of your then holdings.  In this hypothetical the dollar value of your BTC holdings goes down, but it does not go down to zero.  The BTC that you hold go down, too, but of course they are worth more at each upwards price interval.  You will see that over time, that you have an accumulated cashing out value that far exceeds your earlier HOLDing value, especially once the BTC price gets to $100k (assuming it does) but even moreso, if the BTC price were to get to 1/2 a $million... which surely might not happen, but surely it should not hurt too much to prepare for such possibility and even other possibilities that are far beyond our expectations (which we know sometimes happens in bitcoinlandia).

Of course, if you were to create a chart like this with the formulas already contained therein, then you can play around with the increments and the amounts in order to figure out more acceptable ways to achieve all of your goals (of course, provided that BTC's price cooperates).  In my thinking, it might be good to cash out an amount that also allows your BTC $ value to continue to go up no matter what, even if it is just a percentage or two of price appreciation.

Also I'll buy back every piece I dumped if the price goes $10k lower from where I sell the coins.

For example;

Sold %20 @ $50k. Now there are 2  possibilities.

 A) the price goes down for $10k to $40k and I buy back and increase the btc amount,
 B) It goes higher and reaches $60k. Then I'll domp et again another %16-17.

If A) happens in the first round  > back to hodling
If B) happens > again another 2 possibilities A) and B) but this time it's happening @ $60k.

Will probably play that game to maximize the profits till it reaches $100k. Not really decided on anything just thinking. I may completely ignore the "buy back" part too.

Your buy back part sounds reasonable; however, since you seem a little nervous about buying back, based on your last sentence, then maybe you should consider setting your buy back numbers to be quite extremely low, and if the BTC price never goes to such extremely low amounts, then you do not care, you just end up spending the fiat.  And, of course, if the price ends up going to your buy back numbers, then you are happy about that, too because you got a decent bargain in your buy back amount without even having to inject new fiat into your system.