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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
Dec. 2020 - 43 (33.1%)
Jan. 2021 - 14 (10.8%)
Feb. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24683212 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (153 posts by 40 users deleted.)
jojo69
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September 11, 2019, 04:19:56 PM

Btc having its jojo effect....  Roll Eyes

 Cool
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JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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September 11, 2019, 04:28:38 PM
Last edit: September 11, 2019, 04:45:45 PM by JayJuanGee

I am a BTC believer. I am a HODLer.

Sometimes, however, the serpent of doubt slithers through my soul. This halving might be different from the others. What we know is that halvings are going to be more and more irrelevant as the supply decreases. What we don't know is the rate of increase of the irrelevance. In order to estimate possible halving effects, we can use a priori data and contingent data.

A priori data: current level of supply.

Contingent data: state of adoption, price, market sentiment, etc.

Just for a rough estimate, assuming the price at the halving is in the same ballpark as today:
 
DateReward (BTC) Price (USD/BTC) Reward (USD)
2012.11.28  50BTC12.35617.50 $
2016.07.0925BTC65016.250 k$
2020.05.XX12.5BTC10500131.250 k$

I've been looking at this table and pondering for a while, but the serpent isn't dead, not yet at least. Any food for thought? I'm still staying strong anyway, we all know why.

I am a BTC believer. I am a HODLer.

Another doubting Tomas wannabe seems to be puffing up its feathers within our midst.  

 (Hi d_eddie!!!! I see you.)

Do we need to deliver such growing doubter with a decently good-sized dose of WO bashing for his wanna-be inclined bear-talking like we had done with mindrust, biodom and lambie a few weeks ago?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

In other words, the beatings should continue until moral improves!!!!!!!!!  You fuck! (referring to d_eddie and any other wannabe BTC doubter)    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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September 11, 2019, 04:32:36 PM

I have seen some comments of yachts.

When you have a boat there are only two happy days:

- The day you buy it and the day you sell it. Wink



Look at this picture and tell me you don't want it  Grin

Maintenance costs on a 100m ($200M) super yacht aren't that bad

Costs per year
$4,000,000 to $15,000,000 on maintenance
$2,000,000 on crew (30 crew supplement)
$350,000 dockage
$300,000 on provisioning (food/drinks/wine cellar/etc.)
$240,000 insurance
$36,000 on navigation, TV, etc.

Other costs
$1.1 million on refits every few years


Totaling at something like $7M to $20M a year ....

So it's not as bad as you think....  Wink

You say that maintenance is not expensive  Cheesy, I prefer not to think about the amount of BTC you have. Cool

My stack is significant... but won't let me buy a ship like that .... yet Tongue

Anyone buying a ship like that is going to be attempting to generate some income from it too, right?  I mean if you want the ship to be sustainable?  Can you really imagine that you are going on trips and the ship only has staff or maybe just a 100 guests or so?  It would feel nearly empty with those kinds of numbers of passengers, so I am having some difficulties understanding a personal use case... gotta be a kind of business boat, no?

Another scenario would be that the purchaser has ONLY a short time to live or something like that, but just making sure that the management of the boat staff is not engaging in shenanigans would take a decent amount of time to make sure that you have a good manager, if you don't want to manage it yourself - which would be kind of time-consuming, I would think. 

So, at minimum, I think that anyone, even remotely interested in getting a boat like that better have at least 5x the yearly maintenance capital (left over after making the purchase of the yacht and the helicopter... hahahaha)....

So, if we are saying minimum of $250million in BTC value, then at today's prices that would be about 25,000 bitcoins, and if the BTC price goes to $100k, then that would be 2,500 bitcoin, and if the BTC price goes to $1million, then that would be a mere 250 BTC.  Do we have to both  make sure that we have 250BTC and wait for the BTC price goes to $1million?  By the way, with my recommendations about selling a bit of BTC all the way up the ladder, then I am thinking that in order to have around 250 BTC when (or if) BTC prices reach $1million, then today, the HODLer would need to have about 330 BTC to account for the on-the-way shavenings. 


TLDR (for Hueristic and udder peeps like dat):  In other words, in order to have BIG ASS dreams, you better be preparing ur lil selfie, and have enough of a BTC stash in order to accomplish such BIG ASS dreams without putting your finances and/or psychology in any kind of unnecessary state of stress.  You heard it here, first.  Wink    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

And oligarchs the money is extracted from peoples gold teeth so no worries about costs.
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September 11, 2019, 04:41:08 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Almost in the green. Have more endurance dear hodlers.



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1171448643762524160

Cool!
Get your last buys in over the next couple of months guys before it gets too expensive Smiley
JayJuanGee
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September 11, 2019, 04:43:07 PM

It also gives hints on how to manage a selling program to exit bitcoin (for the degenerate WO members who aren't permaholders Wink...)

I would agree that permahodling at least some of your BTC stash would be advisable at any BTC price, including if we get some kind of blow off top, because even then you cannot be sure that it is a blow off top, and you should not be so desperate as to part with all of your BTC stash merely to be an opportunist.

On the other hand, strategically shaving off BTC in a way that is personally customized and within your best interest to take profits, insure yourself towards downside risk and enjoy the fruits of your previous HODLing and buying of BTC should be within your plans and such practice also is not bad for the BTC ecosystem to be able to tolerate such ongoing shavenings by longer term HODLers.
JayJuanGee
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September 11, 2019, 04:48:54 PM

I mumbled a little bit on various themes we discussed on the WO thread lately.
 I posted this on a new thread:
Extracting stable positive return from high-volatile asset.HF recipe made simple

Hope you might find it useful.
It also gives hints on how to manage a selling program to exit bitcoin (for the degenerate WO members who aren't permaholders Wink...)

Good and simple read. Merit-worthy, but I'm dry.

+1 WOsMerit
(Sorry: valid in the WOT only, as per instructions from management.)

Thanks,
appreciate WO merits also.


O.k. You asked for it.

I am going to deliver to you my first WO merit.  +1 to you, fillippone.   Wink  (did you get it?  Can you feel the love of it?  no homo)
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September 11, 2019, 04:49:51 PM

Domino's Pizza Launches $100K Bitcoin Prize Competition in France

Game is active from Sept. 4 till Oct. 6
According to a company’s tweet on Sept. 6, Domino's Pizza France initiated the 100,000 euro give away on the occasion of its 30th anniversary.

Started on Sept. 4, the contest will allow buyers to participate in games while ordering pizzas from Domino's until Oct. 2, while purchase registration will be available till Oct. 6, according to the campaign’s website.

As noted in the competition rules, the amount awarded in Bitcoin will have a value of 100,000 euro calculated according to the exchange rate on the day of purchase of Bitcoin by the organizer of the game if the winner picks BTC.

Eventually, Domino's Pizza plans to transfer the Bitcoin prize to the winner’s wallet on Dec. 16, 2019, according to the rules.


news source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/dominos-pizza-launches-100k-bitcoin-prize-competition-in-france

that is fkn amazing.
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September 11, 2019, 04:54:55 PM

I am a BTC believer. I am a HODLer.

(snip doubt)

Another doubting Tomas wannabe seems to be puffing up its feathers within our midst.  

 (Hi d_eddie!!!! I see you.)

Do we need to deliver such growing doubter with a decently good-sized dose of WO bashing for his wanna-be inclined bear-talking like we had done with mindrust, biodom and lambie a few weeks ago?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

In other words, the beatings should continue until moral improves!!!!!!!!!  You fuck! (referring to d_eddie and any other wannabe BTC doubter)    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I should have posted that tomorrow.  Angry
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September 11, 2019, 05:03:24 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

Merit of the Beast.



Now don't spoil this number by randomly awarding me dozens. Or do if you're really itching.  Tongue
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September 11, 2019, 05:09:41 PM

Almost in the green. Have more endurance dear hodlers.



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1171448643762524160

Cool!
Get your last buys in over the next couple of months guys before it gets too expensive Smiley

If we are here to observe, i´ll do it..

I observe more blue each period.. more blue dots, and with a higher slope
I observe green and yellow dots having lesser slope..
and i observe less red dots each period..

so, my l33t TA skillz tell me to join the peaks and... hmm.. expect a 2000% by 2021 ?

Thats the best i can do. I just got meal and my stomach is having all the blood. My brain is idling.

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September 11, 2019, 05:10:20 PM
Merited by akhjob (2)

Merit of the Beast.



Now don't spoil this number by randomly awarding me dozens. Or do if you're really itching.  Tongue

I'm dry so you will be stuck at 666 for a while  Grin
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September 11, 2019, 05:15:15 PM

<snip>

Totaling at something like $7M to $20M a year ....

So it's not as bad as you think....  Wink

You say that maintenance is not expensive  Cheesy, I prefer not to think about the amount of BTC you have. Cool

My stack is significant... but won't let me buy a ship like that .... yet Tongue

Anyone buying a ship like that is going to be attempting to generate some income from it too, right?  I mean if you want the ship to be sustainable?  Can you really imagine that you are going on trips and the ship only has staff or maybe just a 100 guests or so?  It would feel nearly empty with those kinds of numbers of passengers, so I am having some difficulties understanding a personal use case... gotta be a kind of business boat, no?

Another scenario would be that the purchaser has ONLY a short time to live or something like that, but just making sure that the management of the boat staff is not engaging in shenanigans would take a decent amount of time to make sure that you have a good manager, if you don't want to manage it yourself - which would be kind of time-consuming, I would think.  

So, at minimum, I think that anyone, even remotely interested in getting a boat like that better have at least 5x the yearly maintenance capital (left over after making the purchase of the yacht and the helicopter... hahahaha)....

So, if we are saying minimum of $250million in BTC value, then at today's prices that would be about 25,000 bitcoins, and if the BTC price goes to $100k, then that would be 2,500 bitcoin, and if the BTC price goes to $1million, then that would be a mere 250 BTC.  Do we have to both  make sure that we have 250BTC and wait for the BTC price goes to $1million?  By the way, with my recommendations about selling a bit of BTC all the way up the ladder, then I am thinking that in order to have around 250 BTC when (or if) BTC prices reach $1million, then today, the HODLer would need to have about 330 BTC to account for the on-the-way shavenings.  


TLDR (for Hueristic and udder peeps like dat):  In other words, in order to have BIG ASS dreams, you better be preparing ur lil selfie, and have enough of a BTC stash in order to accomplish such BIG ASS dreams without putting your finances and/or psychology in any kind of unnecessary state of stress.  You heard it here, first.  Wink    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

If you buy a ship like this you can occasionally rent it out. They go for $425,000 a week so rent it out 10-20 weeks a year and your running costs are zero.

I think you would need to be a billionaire to do something like this.
So if you hold 1 BTC you need to wait 10 years  Grin

If anyone gets a ship like that don't forget to host a WO party 🤪😇
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September 11, 2019, 05:16:39 PM

Almost in the green. Have more endurance dear hodlers.



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1171448643762524160

Cool!
Get your last buys in over the next couple of months guys before it gets too expensive Smiley

If we are here to observe, i´ll do it..

I observe more blue each period.. more blue dots, and with a higher slope
I observe green and yellow dots having lesser slope..
and i observe less red dots each period..

so, my l33t TA skillz tell me to join the peaks and... hmm.. expect a 2000% by 2021 ?

Thats the best i can do. I just got meal and my stomach is having all the blood. My brain is idling.



So $200k.... I'm OK with that...
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September 11, 2019, 05:22:21 PM

Hong Kong makes $37 billion bid for the London Stock Exchange

Quote
London (CNN Business)Hong Kong has just made a surprise £30 billion ($37 billion) takeover bid for the London Stock Exchange.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKXCF) (HKEX) said Wednesday it had made a proposal to the LSE (LNSTY) to combine the two companies in a cash and share deal worth £29.6 billion, or £31.6 billion ($39 billion) including debt.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/11/investing/hong-kong-london-stock-exchange/index.html

 Roll Eyes
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September 11, 2019, 05:27:54 PM

Merit of the Beast.



Now don't spoil this number by randomly awarding me dozens. Or do if you're really itching.  Tongue

I'm dry so you will be stuck at 666 for a while  Grin

Pity. My advanced psychology trick didn't work...  Tongue

Related: A few days ago someone posted a link to a thread where members can upload screenshots of interesting merit/activity/etc figures. I haven't been able to find it by searching - either bitcointalk or google. The link was in this thread, of course. Can anyone help?
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September 11, 2019, 05:27:57 PM

Merit of the Beast.



Now don't spoil this number by randomly awarding me dozens. Or do if you're really itching.  Tongue

I'm dry so you will be stuck at 666 for a while  Grin

I got you covered  Grin
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September 11, 2019, 05:31:53 PM

Merit of the Beast.



Now don't spoil this number by randomly awarding me dozens. Or do if you're really itching.  Tongue

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September 11, 2019, 05:40:03 PM

Almost in the green. Have more endurance dear hodlers.



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1171448643762524160

Cool!
Get your last buys in over the next couple of months guys before it gets too expensive Smiley

via Imgflip Meme Generator
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September 11, 2019, 05:40:41 PM

Interesting market analysis, the guy doesn't mention bitcoin but I've read him in the past and is take is that a recession is good for bitcoin, he seems to think the fed can't stop the recession train for very long if at all...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4290996-recession-approaches-fed-fed-deal-deal

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September 11, 2019, 05:52:34 PM

Wait so Bitcoin = bad because Segwit is "indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol"

BTC is suboptimal not merely because SegWit is an alteration, but because the SegWit Omnibus Changeset is a net negative alteration.

Quote
but bcash Bsv = good because their shitty changes are "legitimate claim to a protocol change"

One of the things that makes BSV good is that it is being incrementally returned to the original Bitcoin protocol.

Do try to keep up.

Thus coming back to my comment about original design of planes not having jet engines and cars not having air bags etc... Can you provide any other technology which was not improved and is stuck at its original design? BSv's whole premise relies on cult thinking rather than logic. The design of first car, computer, TV etc etc etc have little to do with their current revisions and no one cares about ENIAC and steam powered cars.

U in principle say that original Bitcoin (pre alterations incl Segwit) didn't work, had no enjines, no proper script  whatsoever

But that is the cult, that core / BS created , i.o. to sell u 2nd layer and script 'engines' cause it s still on the cult ticker btc.

Take a step back, not Back, but back to the roots (yeah, it could get a cult)
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