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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26388910 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JSRAW
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September 25, 2019, 02:49:17 PM

Just for Lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPPWRZJn_rg&feature=youtu.be
JayJuanGee
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September 25, 2019, 02:51:14 PM


Now 52 BTC.
What a joke. Interest in Bitcoin isn't that high, i guess?

It resets each day.

So it is about 61 as I type.

https://www.theice.com/products/72035464/Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Monthly-Futures-Contract/data?marketId=6137541

The first day was about 72
The second day was 216
And so far the third day (still early in the day) is 61
Arriemoller
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Cлaвa Укpaїнi!


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September 25, 2019, 02:57:01 PM


Ibian on ignore

Fatman ignoring
Making himself a safe space
Like a scared snowflake


EDIT: that's my late Sunday haiku

Wow, the scared snowflake image.
Not necessarily implying it's realistic (I don't think thick skinned Fatman is scared at all), but it sure is poetic.

Thank you!
JimboToronto
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September 25, 2019, 03:05:30 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see we've leveled out around $8.4k... currently $8412USD/$11166CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Hopefully that was it for the pre-Q4-rally shakeout.

Go Bitcoin go.

some may have pre fork btc sitting around. so by default, it doesnt really matter as one has all versions since anyway.

HODL has many advantages for the lazy.


No kidding. Especially for the more security-conscious.

If it takes time and travel to access most of your many cold storage wallets, there's a tendency to leave them alone.

Therefore they tend to still contain all the forkcoins along with the real Bitcoin.

When the need to sell some coin arises, it's easier to sell post-fork coins because they're probably closer at hand.

As it is, whenever I sweep a cold storage wallet, I mark it as swept and keep it for possible future forkcoin retrieval.
JayJuanGee
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September 25, 2019, 03:05:44 PM
Last edit: September 25, 2019, 04:09:07 PM by JayJuanGee

[edited out]

Why are you calling me fatty, asswipe?

I haven't talked to you before. Nor have I been talking about alts lately.

The only one bitching about big blocks anymore is JJG and he's on ignore.

You are so damned special, fatty, and trying to whitewash your BIG blocker bitcoin naysaying history, suggesting that posters who are way the fuck more contributory in this thread than you don't know who the fuck you are and trying to act as if you fit in here.. yeah right.   Roll Eyes

Get a grip, fat-ass, or I might have to bring batman out.



......The only one bitching about big blocks anymore is JJG and he's on ignore......
........JJG has never been a big blocker.....

I think what fatty was saying was that I am the only one complaining about big blockers, but anyhow who gives too many shits about what the bitter bitcoin naysaying troll/shill fatty is saying....  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
AB de Royse777
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September 25, 2019, 03:13:51 PM

It worked!
I mean laughed :-P

BitCluster!!!!!!!!!!!
vroom
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September 25, 2019, 03:18:16 PM
Merited by bitcoincidence (1)

coming up next (<7d) a new local low at $9000-9250, then leg up to $15000.

made a professional TA to support my prediction





halfway done, we are here now. need more despair, more bitcoin is dying news. a voluminous move down and a quick recovery.




now we are here: X

this is fiine
LUCKMCFLY
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September 25, 2019, 03:32:38 PM

A Clarification, simple but that clears doubts:


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September 25, 2019, 03:36:26 PM
Merited by 600watt (1), Last of the V8s (1)

Its times like these that put hair on your chest boys. Hopium, delusional, whatever.

Some people are always convinced the end Bitcoin is just around the corner. That there is nothing we can do but accept it. That believing the opposite is ripe for ridicule, that you are some sort of flake.

Some times the people are so certain, and the environment is so convincing, that you can't but help get swept up and carried away, questioning everything you believed.

But these are the times you will be glad you held firm, glad you held to your convictions that Bitcoin can and will survive this momentary test of wills. Like it has multiple times over that last decade, this too shall pass, and that big green shot to a brighter day will be that much sweeter, that much more rewarding.

We've been on this journey together for years now, do want you must to survive, but know this is still just the beginning of amazing times.
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September 25, 2019, 03:37:07 PM
Merited by 600watt (1)

FYI quoting the Roach is an ignore offense
JSRAW
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September 25, 2019, 03:40:38 PM

A Clarification, simple but that clears doubts:

That's what She said
Searing
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September 25, 2019, 03:55:20 PM

Maybe this is an aside...but perhaps we may see some significant whales dump BTC for USD if the USA and such if the world goes into a recession and stocks fall...so will it be HODL such

large stashes on a recession and economic downturn or will it be let some BTC bleed to USD or fiat of your choice, to keep their current lifestyle of such whales, to compensate traditional

investments declining, income-wise, due to a worldwide recession.

You could take this further. Is the price of BTC due to 'extra discretionary money' spent on BTC due to good economic times, by various folks/groups? Thus buying of BTC as such will dry up

in a recession? In other words, folks may WANT to buy BTC and crypto in the recession but will hold off on such, due to it being seen as more and option/luxury?

I guess we will see. Chump or Champ. But yeah, watching the HODL accumulation dump 15% or so sucks Smiley

I'll likely HODL anyway, stuff to do. Smiley

Brad
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September 25, 2019, 03:56:48 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (6)

God Fucking Damnit.

Sheeit.

you been slacking with the metal plates Bob?
JayJuanGee
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September 25, 2019, 04:01:08 PM

[edited out]

I think it is perfectly normal to have 2 plans.

We can agree to disagree, but it is possible that we are just discussing semantics rather than meaningful variance. 

Of course, any plan should not be locked in and therefore we are likely going to need to tweak or even abandoned along the way, or such plan may have branches that cause divergence based on "what if" triggering events

We all know that Bitcoin will reach 100K or more.

Anyone who asserts that s/he knows the future with certainty, especially when it comes to something like bitcoin is looney.

Of course we might assign relatively high probabilities, but even then we are going to have variant predictions between people regarding how high of probabilities that they assign.


The only unknown variable now is exactly how long this will take.

Sure, time is another variable.



The historical pattern says end of 2021 or early 2022. But nobody can be sure about that. We may need another halving to occur i.e. after 2024, or even more.

I agree more likely to occur within 1 to 2 years after the halvening, but like you said, could take longer.

In that case there will be many dissapointments and missed opportunites to become rich. And man's heart can't endure forever such bad things.


To me it seems that you are setting yourself up for failure if you don't plan for outliers.  Of course, there is an expectation that bitcoin is going to go up, but if it goes to zero, we should be both financially and psychologically prepared for that also.  Seems to me.

Considering however, that I continue to buy in all these years, I may reach my goal in terms of fiat for prices around 50K. I don't want this to happen, and I don't think it will happen, but it is theoretically possible that we are stuck at levels 20K-50K for a prolonged period of time.

With bitcoin, you should still be able to get rich, even if the price appreciation does not end up being as great as expected.  And, if you are not rich, you are at least better off for having had invested into it.    Traditional investments tend to take anywhere between 7 and 15 years to double in value, so even if bitcoin ends up falling into the realm of normal, then it should not have hurt you to have tried. 

Sure, for me, it is already nice to have nearly 10x in equity cushion (profits) in BTC, but there is still some need to consider bitcoin from the present, too.  At the present BTC price, what do you expect in the next 7-15 years?   Yes it should double, and yes it should even accomplish such doubling (or more) in a much shorter period of time, even though not guaranteed.

Let's say I have 16 BTC (they could have been much more, but in 2015 I didn't even suspect that Bitcoin price could go much higher than $200 so soon). So the 1st super duper bearish plan (based on my personal 10x profit) is:

2,00 for $36 000
2,00 for $40 000
4,35 for $44 000
4,15 for $46 000
3,50 for $48 000

Total: $700 000. If I can buy more coins before 36K, I will keep them for 100K.  

And if the year is 2025 or later, I will have may be 3-4 or more coins. Considering my expenses are $5K per year and that I can build a luxury house for 200K, this amount should be enough even if I quadruple the monthly expenses. ( I am speaking for an early retirement 10 years instead of 20 from now.)


O.k., I see that you are planning to have two tracks of coins.  One track of coins, you completely cash out by the time the price reaches $48k, and the second track of coins is still unknown because you are in the process of acquiring those second track of coins.

Personally, I believe that is planning to gamble too much based on too many unknowns, and in that regard, I would prefer to plan based on knowns rather than unknowns, and of course, you can have a plan to cash out all of your earlier acquired coins by $48k, if that is what floats your boat, but it seems a bit short-sighted, in my thinking, and maybe even too much gambling to play it that way.   

But what I am hoping for is selling based on the follwing pattern until 2022 (plus all bitcoins bought before my 1st selling point, kept for later moons above 200K). It is a tweaked version of your plan, which you gave to mindrust some time ago. It is based on the principle 10, 20, 30, 40% sells after each 50% increase. The last sell could be distributed between 120K and 150K.

Sell Price    BTC balance    PfolioBeforeValue    BTCSell Amt    PfolioAfterValue    soldValue      soldTotal
$40,000       16.00000000    $640,000             0.00000000     $640,000            $0.00           $0.00
$40,000       16.00000000    $640,000             1.60000000     $576,000            $64,000        $64,000
$60,000       14.40000000    $864,000             3.20000000     $672,000            $192,000       $256,000
$90,000       11.20000000    $1,008,000          4.80000000     $576,000            $432,000       $688,000
$135,000       6.40000000    $864,000             6.40000000     $0                      $864,000       $1,552,000

 Pretty much, I agree with the discretion that is exercised through all of the first part, but I don't see why you would have to go balls to the wall between $120k and $150k.  Yeah, you could sell some of those BTC, but do you really believe it is necessary to sell all of them?  Of course, if you really believe that a blow off top has been reached in that range, then you could use some of those last coins to buy back, but still seems a bit rash to run out of coins to sell, in my thinking.


Then I can build a beach villa which I could use or lend. And one day if I am sick of it, I surely will be able to sell it 2-3 times higher, so the initial cash out at 40K-60K won't be lost.

 Of course, using your money wisely, such as investment property is not a bad thing, so in that regard it might not matter what you do with your money to the extent that you have not become so filthy rich that you can start to throw money away and not think about whether it gives you further possible returns.


P.S. I know this looks like hopium especially to the daily traders, but this increase is only 10x from 14K this year. There were much bigger increases even for one year, not to mention for 3 years. The only question is when 100K, not if!

I don't think it looks like hopium, and I think that you are failing to sufficiently plan for further upside, but yeah, you could end up being correct and there is a blow off top in the range in which you cash out the remaining of your BTC so you end up being able to buy them back at a much reduced price.

Ultimately, these kinds of decisions are yours to make, and so we are going to come out with differing plans that are kind of tailored to our own financial situations, risk tolerances, timeline and views of bitcoin as compared with other asset classes.
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September 25, 2019, 04:13:04 PM

^^
NP jbreher will keep pumping/supporting that one

Clearly BSV led that drop. Little ol' BTC merely caught in the wake.

or smth

Whatevs... I have all the time in the world.

One will not say that when he’s under the dirt......

No man got all the time in the world....

When one is in the catbird seat, the difference between the end of the world and 'it doesn't matter' is merely academic.

Well hopefully you are referring to you BTC investment rather than bcash or various varients of bcash, which are both likely to perform less well than bitcoin. 

Of course, if you have a smaller portion in bcash, then you still might do o.k., but not as well as if you ONLY held bitcoin. 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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September 25, 2019, 04:17:25 PM

One thing is sure by now. FED dont print those $75 billion a night to buy Bitcoin.
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September 25, 2019, 04:33:43 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

Any opinions about this theory regarding a whale dumping 1.2million btc yesterday to crash the market?

https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-price-plunge-came-from-1-2b-sell-data-says-amid-hashrate-row/
JayJuanGee
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September 25, 2019, 04:40:26 PM

^^
NP jbreher will keep pumping/supporting that one

Clearly BSV led that drop. Little ol' BTC merely caught in the wake.

or smth

Whatevs... I have all the time in the world.

One will not say that when he’s under the dirt......

No man got all the time in the world....

When one is in the catbird seat, the difference between the end of the world and 'it doesn't matter' is merely academic.

Well hopefully you are referring to you BTC investment rather than bcash or various varients of bcash, which are both likely to perform less well than bitcoin. 

Of course, if you have a smaller portion in bcash, then you still might do o.k., but not as well as if you ONLY held bitcoin. 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

That's an evasive response if I had ever seen one.   Tongue
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September 25, 2019, 04:49:14 PM

Any opinions about this theory regarding a whale dumping 1.2million btc yesterday to crash the market?

https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-price-plunge-came-from-1-2b-sell-data-says-amid-hashrate-row/

Looks legit  Cool
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September 25, 2019, 04:49:43 PM

Any opinions about this theory regarding a whale dumping 1.2million btc yesterday to crash the market?

https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-price-plunge-came-from-1-2b-sell-data-says-amid-hashrate-row/

so Faketoshi's attempt to destroy BTC?  Grin
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