Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Hey jbreher how would you spin EDA and bcash and BSv's current difficulty adjustment algos? what version did that come in?

Well, there's really no way to spin that. That's a change indeed.

Of course, SV is the project where the majority of vocal participants are stating a desire to return to the 0.1 protocol. So if this will come to pass, that will be rolled back. Of course there is no guarantee of future developments.

Meantime, that is a legitimate claim to a protocol change.

You could just, you know, fork the 0.1 protocol.  Go ahead and fork the genesis block. Ain’t no one stopping you.

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[nutildah]

I used a oiga board it confirmed you are all gay.

But upside 10550 tomorrow

+1 WOmerit

Hey jbreher how would you spin EDA and bcash and BSv's current difficulty adjustment algos? what version did that come in?

Well, there's really no way to spin that. That's a change indeed.

Of course, SV is the project where the majority of vocal participants are stating a desire to return to the 0.1 protocol. So if this will come to pass, that will be rolled back. Of course there is no guarantee of future developments.

Meantime, that is a legitimate claim to a protocol change.

You could just, you know, fork the 0.1 protocol.  

They could do that but they know there's too many important changes made since then, including those made by Amaury Sechet and Greg Maxwell.

BSV's new OP_LSHIFT and OP_RSHIFT are not compatible with Satoshi's Bitcoin v0.1.0

[HairyMaclairy]

Greg Maxwell does not represent Satoshi’s Vision, man.  

Jbear doesn’t have time for Maxwell’s Vision.  He is a bear in a hurry.

[nutildah]

I just remember reading through the GitHub commit timeline for BSV, seeing that they had decided to keep in dozens (or hundreds) of changes made by Core and ABC devs since 0.10. Its really only "Satoshi's Vision" if you believe Wright is Satoshi. That's the only way in which the "SV" portion of BSV makes sense as its pretty far from a return to the original protocol.

[realr0ach]

Greg Maxwell does not represent Satoshi’s Vision, man.  

Let's just say you are all a little misguided.

First you dump the shitcoin, then you get the physical silver, then you get the power.

[realr0ach]

This shows you how fragile the scammers on this board are.  Some fucktard named dmwardjr that calls himself "the god TA man" or some nonsense starts arguing with me about monetary theory, begins to look stupid in argument, and immediately starts deleting all posts of the conversation.  Everything about digital shitcoins is based on lies and deception and does not stand up to truth:

By you using the word "thin air" shows me you do not and/or will not grasp a hold of what determines "VALUE."  Adoption plays a major role in determining "value."

You can tell you're in trouble when you try to deform common sense and claim the sheer act of someone falling for a scam aka "adopting it" gives it some type of value or worth.  It has to have an actual use case in common with multiple people to have trade value.  An artificial, imaginary, Keynesian widget does not do this.  The only "value" you have is transitory because they're not resources or commodities in relation to humans and things like Maslow's pyramid.

This is why Aristotle says money is required to be a physical commodity and Plato who said money can be an imaginary widget is an idiot.  There is no Schelling point in imaginary widgets, only pump and dump scams that will always deflate right when you least expect them or want them to.  The goal of money is to store value, not be incapable of storing value while attempting to function as a fraudulent casino that the bottom can drop out of at any second.

[JayJuanGee]

If jbreher uses his intelligence to deceive people

Not at all. At least never intentionally.

or to to get caught in stupid-ass technical arguments

I guess it takes a self-described technical ignoramus to openly refer to technical arguments as 'stupid-ass'.

you have a significantly large amount of misleading and misinformation in your posts

You are wrong. There is no such thing as factual information that is misleading or misinforming.

O.k.  We don't agree.  It seems that I already made my case on this point anyhow.  No need to repeat myself.

I present facts, and leave the editorializing to a minimum.

O.k.

Any mis- is in your misattribution of ulterior motive to my actions, which causes you to invent things in my writings that are not there.

Huh?  Funny I still see you making misinformations, and spinning matters.  I did not realize that I was causing it.  

Regarding your stupid-ass technical arguments, they frequently are stupid-ass because they either are misleading or they are put too much weight on improbable events, which is another form of misleading.

Again, I present mostly scenarios within the range of possibility. I rarely assign probabilities to such events.

Good on you.  

OTOH, to outwardly shame the presenter of truthful possibilities is indeed in itself a misleading activity, largely the domain of those trying to prevent the truth from becoming widely known.

jbreher = purveyor of truth.  Who would have thunk?

Since it seems quite unlikely that you are going to get banned,

Dream on, compadre, dream on.

There's no dreaming about my statement.  Some trolls or shills get banned.

Remember Jstolfi?  

What the hell does Stolfi have to do with this? Absolutely nothing.

I already said what Stolfi had to do with this.  Some members have proclaimed that you are polite, and some members have proclaimed that Stolfi was polite.

Stolfi was rational, but he worked from flawed axioms - to wit:
- Bitcoin is merely a currency at best.
- Deflationary currencies can never work in any role in economic society.

So what?  You believe different things and you troll about different things.  You still might be seen to have similar styles in some regards.

Nay, the axiom that we seem to disagree upon would seem to be my belief that actual utility matters.

Times are different, and ways of attacking bitcoin are different.  Stolfi has been shown to have been a clown, and perhaps you will be shown to be a clown, too.  Surely, you are way more persistent that Stolfi, and he only lasted a couple of years in these parts, but you have been on and on and on with your various BIG blocker talking points for at least 4 years.

JJG, you may be a bit too wordy, but I'm glad that you spare the time to call out the destructive bullshit that jbreher spews in order to manipulate others. I am also thankful for Hairy's contributions as well. 

Yeah. Too bad for your camp of witch-burners that JJG never actually addresses any of the points made, and that when Hairy does, it backfires spectacularly due to his/her lack of grasp of the very topics s/he utters.

There are a sufficient number of members who call you out on your bullshit without really getting trapped into your distracting nonsense and arguing with you too much into the weeds of your bullshit, so I would not really categorize them as losing the arguments or not sufficiently understanding your dumbass points, merely because we sometimes choose NOT to go down your largely irrelevant and repeated path.

[JayJuanGee]

The Bakkt Warehouse is active for futures

Bitcoin deposited at our Warehouse is protected by a $125 million insurance policy

https://twitter.com/bakkt/status/1171040208105758720?s=21

I fear BTC price will tumble significantly when Bakkt swings full gear.
At least that's what happened back in 2017 when CBOE & CME launched futures trading.

This time is different.^tm

We are at a different location in the fractal.^tm   


 

[VB1001]

An all-time high for #Bitcoin difficulty.

https://twitter.com/Bitcoin/status/1171194022586535936


https://twitter.com/AlexKernA/status/1171058656022073344

Complicated of being here, but following the daily publications.

[jbreher]

You could just, you know, fork the 0.1 protocol.  Go ahead and fork the genesis block. Ain’t no one stopping you.

Ain't no one stopping us. Except -- you know -- every last one of us.

You're becoming unhinged, HM. Even moreso.

[mindrust]

But, do note that all three of us are planning to SELL BTC.  And, presumably, BUY something else.  And what to buy...?  I know what I want.......

But, of course, owning BTC also has a tremendous advantage that we all know about but rarely discuss: mobility.  So, however high BTC rises, I will keep some around for the freedom of movement it would support.

Buying more btc is always a good option. The prices JJG speculating on are all potential new ATH prices.

Let's say this blew up in the first round and after selling 1.xx btc from $50k and it never went higher and made a huge correction to $25k. (Statistically, btc never went below the last ATH after going down from the new ATH btw. If this happens it is a very bad sign.) seeing a %50 correction, I would just buy back some btc.

Now Reading again what I just wrote above, a %70+(Basically this is what happens after every new ATH. Get rich quick people are the majority and they instaleave the scene.)  correction from $50k would bring sub $20k prices indeed So If you decide to sell from $50k you are basically betting on that bitcoin will never ever recover or it'll take 5+ years at least for a recovery. I don't say this is impossible but this is the bet you are taking. (Or me, or whoever is selling at $50k and dreaming of buying back later)

Tldr; wait for $80k+

[jbreher]

I just remember reading through the GitHub commit timeline for BSV, seeing that they had decided to keep in dozens (or hundreds) of changes made by Core and ABC devs since 0.10. Its really only "Satoshi's Vision" if you believe Wright is Satoshi. That's the only way in which the "SV" portion of BSV makes sense as its pretty far from a return to the original protocol.

Well, other than the fact that it get closer each release.

[fillippone]

Wow.
That website is a goldmine if good material:

Stock to flow chart with new color scheme.
digitalik.net/btc/
#bitcoin #btc #stocktoflow

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEDoihRXYAAWiVZ?format=jpg&name=large

[jbreher]

Remember Jstolfi?  

What the hell does Stolfi have to do with this? Absolutely nothing.

I already said what Stolfi had to do with this.  Some members have proclaimed that you are polite, and some members have proclaimed that Stolfi was polite.

I would like rational people to take note here of JJG's argument. To wit: Both myself and JStolfi are polite, therefore we are arguing the same things, and can be dismissed upon the same grounds.

Bravo, JJG. Better than Goebbels. Yer mum must be proud.

Haha. I just _know_ somebody's gonna misquote this. Fuck it.

[realr0ach]

Stock to flow chart

For the 5000th time, "stock to flow" does not work on imaginary, digital shitcoins, otherwise hundreds of dead POW coins would not already exist.  Anything like stock to flow only works on REAL commodity resources.  And please, no retards trying to claim Bitcoin is somehow magical and stock to flow will only work on it and not 'dogecoin' even though they're exactly the same thing.  You people are grade A retard scammers.  Since they're virtually identical, stock to flow would either have to work on both or neither, and it obviously doesn't work on both.

[maxreish]

My TA says, possibly the same scene from the previous one. If it doesn't break $11,000 resistance, then expect bears are coming soon and will go down to that blue line below. Well, there are still changes that may gonna happen. and if it will break $11k, let's go for $14k.
But for now, that's my TA.

[realr0ach]

You physically took a picture of your computer monitor.  I'd love for the Bitcoin pump and dump scam to go to zero and never be seen from again and the world go back to physical metals, but I'm not sure if anyone can put much faith in your TA if you don't know what the print screen button is.  And yes, of course the price can plummet when the cost of production is $3-4k and the rise upwards from $4k to now was completely artificial rigging from a single entity. It was probably the most obvious, artificial market rigging in the ENTIRE HISTORY OF BITCOIN.

[HairyMaclairy]

You could just, you know, fork the 0.1 protocol.  Go ahead and fork the genesis block. Ain’t no one stopping you.

Ain't no one stopping us. Except -- you know -- every last one of us.

You're becoming unhinged, HM. Even moreso.

Oh.  So you don’t want to use the 0.1 protocol.  Make up your mind, Bear !

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, that’s a really good post by JJG. Well worth meriting!

Thanks LFC.  Maybe we need to thank Mindrust for providing us the scenario - and sure, sometimes, it can be helpful to put some numbers into a projection in order to assist some folks to sort through what might be important to them - including the fact that we don't really know how far the BTC price will go or when it will reverse into another nasty correction, which seems inevitable, at some point.

.[edited out funny stuffings]
.
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..... thats a very smart cash out program, and i should do that the next bullrun.
I´m living on ramen and noodles for being a HODLER since 2017...

Of course, it is good to attempt to figure out some kind of tentative plan before hand, and then maybe be able to have fully cooked meals, and maybe even steaks and lobsters?

Actually, with a portfolio value at the start of just $332,346, he shouldn't be cashing out $66,469 in the first year, sequence of returns risk and all that. But then we don't know the situation of the hodler and might actually need the fiat.

Of course, the cashing out schedule can be individually tailored regarding both triggering price points, triggering intervals, amounts sold at each price point, and the part that is not elaborated on here regarding whether and at what price points to buy back (and how much).  

Part of the point that I would want to attempt to achieve is to attempt to get out of the habit of timing BTC price matters and playing around too much with all or nothing thinking.  The system that I outlined would be a more pure attempt to cash out based on BTC prices points and to let the price come to you, rather than the other way around or not having a plan or getting too emotional and then NOT knowing what to do (which causes mistakes too).

Nothing in the above formula states anything about timeline to sell, exactly, but selling points just being triggered by price - even though there might be some assumptions about how fast the price will go to such price-points including that exponential growth could take BTC between $50k and $100k within a couple of years or perhaps higher within that timeline... but then again, it might not even make it to $50k in a couple of years.  

Surely, there might be some need to reconsider BTC selling price points (increments and quantities) if such exponential BTC growth does not happen in the next couple of years and therefore drags out longer.. maybe even 5 years or more?  Then what?  Rethink the plan, but attempt to have a plan that is tailored to yourself (and then let the price come to you) rather than trying to time the market and making rash choices that result in rash moves.

Actually, with a portfolio value at the start of just $332,346, he shouldn't be cashing out $66,469 in the first year, sequence of returns risk and all that. But then we don't know the situation of the hodler and might actually need the fiat.

What sort of approach would you suggest for someone who doesn’t need the money?

I understand that you are asking Dabs, Hairy, but I think that your asking the question about not needing the money would be almost an irrelevant consideration.  Maybe you would choose to structure smaller amounts?  or larger intervals? in order that you would have more BTC on the upside? Or maybe you would buy back more quickly?  That's part of the point about individually tailoring because even though I was attempting to work within the parameters that mindrust gave me, it still becomes very much a personal choice in terms of guys (and gal) figuring out their own financial circumstances which should have been done before even investing into BTC, but it's never too late to really attempt to figure out your own self and your financial circumstances rather than merely guessing, which even really smart people spend a lot of time guessing rather than really analyzing themselves and their various details that fall under the tried and true categories of cashflow, other investment, view of bitcoin as compared with other assets, risk tolerance, timeline and how much time and skills do you have for trading and/or researching. 

[realr0ach]

Oh.  So you don’t want to use the 0.1 protocol.  Make up your mind, Bear !

Excuse me for being a noob, but I was wondering if you could tell me what protocol version physical silver and gold are running on.  I'm worried that I will lose all my money by not using the correct physical silver protocol.