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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25491695 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Hueristic
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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


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September 09, 2019, 01:11:59 PM

via Imgflip Meme Generator

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Not sure if this should be done with left or right hand, but a little slot machine observing in Vegas this weekend.  Wink

268 days into the new BTCull Market and all is well.  Cheesy

I h8 slot machines and only use them to roll over my free play but something spoke to me in those shots,


I think it was the star trek theme. Grin
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Hueristic
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September 09, 2019, 01:18:22 PM
Last edit: September 09, 2019, 01:30:07 PM by Hueristic
Merited by Lambie Slayer (1)


 Antonio Brown is a team destroyer.  Go Steelers!!   Tongue

Edit: k.  I'll admit it was embarrassing and I wish I had gone to bed instead of watching.  Now I'm tired and angry.

I had Moncrief and Washington on my bench and moncrief is now tossed to the shitter, I remember him dropping everything at the colts but took a gamble just in case he stepped up. Washington looks like he's gonna work out though. Smiley


I am wondering if Tomlin is pulling the masterstroke and using AB as a radioactive Trojan Horse to take down several teams in the league and drive them into dysfunction. Belichick has superpowers of making things go right, but AB has superpowers of turning things into horseshit, its a question of who will have the strongest superpower. Its Bill's greatest test. AB is one of the biggest pieces of shit in sports that I can remember in my lifetime. Raiders were dumb to sign him, but Im pissed how he screwed them over.

ROTFLMFAO! Right, its all goddamn Voodoo.

Tomlin does have the worst luck and literally Belichick catches all the breaks that make him look like a genius. I really was pulling for the raiders as they were my team growing up (because the Pats sucked so bad i had to have 2 to root for) and Gruden is going through Prima Donna WR's like french whores go through perfume,. It looks like Gordon is even working out, who would have guessed that? Not me thats for sure. They started with nothing for wr and lost Gronk and now they have too much wr talent. They probably won't even make the playoffs now. Grin


I have deduced that they're talking about a sport.


JSRAW
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September 09, 2019, 02:03:52 PM
Merited by akhjob (1)

Anyone shared this? No?

Dude built a Lightning ATM

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/d1hx12/i_built_a_lightning_atm_build_your_own/
LFC_Bitcoin
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One of the world's leading Bitcoin-powered casinos


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September 09, 2019, 02:52:26 PM

^ Lambie we are supposed to concentrate on WO sign?  Tongue
Dear Lord!
I hadn't noticed!
Something is wrong with me, if I care more about WO sign instead of natural (or not natural, I don't care) beauties!


Love these pics Cheesy
Keep them coming guys Smiley
bkbirge
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September 09, 2019, 03:09:59 PM

Didn't see this posted yet, the correlation with halving while not too surprising is still interesting, keep HODL'n...
Quote
While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-analysis-every-bitcoin-holder-makes-a-profit-after-1-335-days
bkbirge
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September 09, 2019, 03:16:38 PM

Some of you may get a kick out of this article...

Quote
Of course, technical analysis sometimes seems to work, says Janny Kul, who crunched the numbers on hundreds of TA research papers. Likewise, a coin flipped several times might yield five heads in a row. But falsely assuming that the coin’s past landings affect the probability of its future landings is wrongheaded. Indeed, the fallacy even has a name—“statistical independence.”
https://decrypt.co/9002/technical-analysis-the-art-of-wrongly-predicting-the-future

"Coin’s past landings affect" analogy is stupid. There's a big chance tomorrow's price will be close to today's price, everyone knows that. Tomorrow's price is not "statistically independent" from today's price.

Multi-year trend lines also can be useful for multi-year predictions.

Even past 2-3 months can be useful, like right now we're experiencing 80 days of sideways. So there is a good chance we'll continue moving sideways for at least another week.

Can you quantify the 'good chance' and why the week time duration of your prediction? I think the analogy works when you consider the prediction is not whether the price is close to short term past but whether it moves up or down relative. That's the coin flip part. At least that's how I understood it.
El duderino_
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September 09, 2019, 03:18:04 PM

The Bakkt Warehouse is active for futures

Bitcoin deposited at our Warehouse is protected by a $125 million insurance policy

https://twitter.com/bakkt/status/1171040208105758720?s=21
fillippone
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September 09, 2019, 03:18:35 PM

Didn't see this posted yet, the correlation with halving while not too surprising is still interesting, keep HODL'n...
Quote
While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-analysis-every-bitcoin-holder-makes-a-profit-after-1-335-days


This is nonsense.
No evidence, no rationale.
It's like driving straight on a road because on the the rear mirror it has always been a straight road.
bkbirge
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September 09, 2019, 03:21:19 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

Didn't see this posted yet, the correlation with halving while not too surprising is still interesting, keep HODL'n...
Quote
While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-analysis-every-bitcoin-holder-makes-a-profit-after-1-335-days


This is nonsense.
No evidence, no rationale.
It's like driving straight on a road because on the the rear mirror it has always been a straight road.

Or like drawing a straight line through a price chart of the last 4 years and expecting it to still be straight 4 years from now.
Phil_S
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September 09, 2019, 03:31:29 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

Can you quantify the 'good chance' and why the week time duration of your prediction?

It's a gut feeling, not quantifiable math. And it's not a week but "at least a week", so could be longer. Maybe 2-3 weeks.

I think the analogy works when you consider the prediction is not whether the price is close to short term past but whether it moves up or down relative. That's the coin flip part. At least that's how I understood it.

There are different types of predictions, from unreliable short-term predictions for traders, to pretty reliable long-term predictions for us holders. It would be wrong to just dismiss all of them.
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September 09, 2019, 03:43:44 PM

There are different types of predictions, from unreliable short-term predictions for traders, to pretty reliable long-term predictions for us holders. It would be wrong to just dismiss all of them.

Totally agree, that's why I find the topic pretty interesting.
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September 09, 2019, 03:49:12 PM
Merited by akhjob (1)

#Gold made sense when transactions were physical interactions, but our digital world demands a form of digital gold. #DropGold

https://dropgold.com/drop-gold/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=2019_q3_MS
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September 09, 2019, 04:05:42 PM
Last edit: September 09, 2019, 04:26:50 PM by jbreher

If jbreher uses his intelligence to deceive people

Not at all. At least never intentionally.

Quote
or to to get caught in stupid-ass technical arguments

I guess it takes a self-described technical ignoramus to openly refer to technical arguments as 'stupid-ass'.

you have a significantly large amount of misleading and misinformation in your posts

You are wrong. There is no such thing as factual information that is misleading or misinforming. I present facts, and leave the editorializing to a minimum. Any mis- is in your misattribution of ulterior motive to my actions, which causes you to invent things in my writings that are not there.

Quote
Regarding your stupid-ass technical arguments, they frequently are stupid-ass because they either are misleading or they are put too much weight on improbable events, which is another form of misleading.

Again, I present mostly scenarios within the range of possibility. I rarely assign probabilities to such events.

OTOH, to outwardly shame the presenter of truthful possibilities is indeed in itself a misleading activity, largely the domain of those trying to prevent the truth from becoming widely known.

Quote
Since it seems quite unlikely that you are going to get banned,

Dream on, compadre, dream on.

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Remember Jstolfi?  

What the hell does Stolfi have to do with this? Absolutely nothing. Stolfi was rational, but he worked from flawed axioms - to wit:
- Bitcoin is merely a currency at best.
- Deflationary currencies can never work in any role in economic society.

Nay, the axiom that we seem to disagree upon would seem to be my belief that actual utility matters.
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September 09, 2019, 04:07:57 PM

JJG, you may be a bit too wordy, but I'm glad that you spare the time to call out the destructive bullshit that jbreher spews in order to manipulate others. I am also thankful for Hairy's contributions as well. 

Yeah. Too bad for your camp of witch-burners that JJG never actually addresses any of the points made, and that when Hairy does, it backfires spectacularly due to his/her lack of grasp of the very topics s/he utters.
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September 09, 2019, 04:12:22 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

I am wondering if Tomlin is pulling the masterstroke and using AB as a radioactive Trojan Horse to take down several teams in the league and drive them into dysfunction. Belichick has superpowers of making things go right, but AB has superpowers of turning things into horseshit, its a question of who will have the strongest superpower. Its Bill's greatest test. AB is one of the biggest pieces of shit in sports that I can remember in my lifetime. Raiders were dumb to sign him, but Im pissed how he screwed them over.

Hey Lambie (and other NFL fans), I started my own NFL predictions thread in the Gambling section, but its pretty slow going over there. Feel free to stop by and drop some of your wisdom if you like. I'm always looking for insights about picks, I'm sure others are too:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5179018

I have deduced that they're talking about a sport.

The only sport where I can sit through the whole damn thing.

It is a bit weird that Americans decided to adopt the word "football" for their sport. The foot connecting with the ball is a rarer part of the action.
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September 09, 2019, 04:15:25 PM

The Bakkt Warehouse is active for futures

Bitcoin deposited at our Warehouse is protected by a $125 million insurance policy

https://twitter.com/bakkt/status/1171040208105758720?s=21

I fear BTC price will tumble significantly when Bakkt swings full gear.
At least that's what happened back in 2017 when CBOE & CME launched futures trading.
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September 09, 2019, 04:22:02 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Brace Yourself: Institutional Investors are coming:
 Bitcoin Futures Trading on CME Hints at Influx of Institutional Money


Quote
During the month of August, over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin futures contracts have been traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. With each contract representing the right but not the obligation to purchase 5 BTC at a given price, over 100,000 futures contracts were traded on the platform.

The year-to-date numbers are apparently even more impressive. CME managing director Tim McCourt told Forbes contributor Benjamin Pirus that so far this year, Bitcoin futures are averaging more than 7,000 contracts per day on the platform.

This is meaningful because retail investors don’t have easy access to CME futures trading, so this growth doesn’t represent the participation of the average crypto user. Most futures trading on the CME platform comes from institutional investors and wealthy accredited investors, audiences that Bitcoiners have long been trying to win over.

Another two news are worth noting today on the same topic:

https://www.coindesk.com/uk-fund-that-aims-to-capitalize-on-crypto-volatity-raises-50-million


Quote
U.K.-licensed Nickel Asset Management says it has raised $50 million for a fund aimed to make profits off the volatility of cryptocurrencies.

Quote
“Our vision is that it’s simply a matter of time until digital assets become part of institutional portfolio allocation for forward-looking investors around the world, and we aim to build an institutional-quality gateway to this high-octane world of digital assets.”


Quote
The Bakkt Warehouse is active for futures

Bitcoin deposited at our Warehouse is protected by a $125 million insurance policy
https://twitter.com/Bakkt/status/1171040208105758720


These are two very important news: Ecosystem for institutional investor is slowly being built up.

It's very different from 2016, when CME futures gave the easy way to short the BITCOIN.
Now that selling pressure is already discounted on the market: the buying pressure on the market because of QE, Negative Rates, Geopolitical Risks, Inflation risks, Halving etc... is instead looming on the side, just waiting for the doors to open.

lightfoot
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September 09, 2019, 04:39:15 PM

#Gold made sense when transactions were physical interactions, but our digital world demands a form of digital gold. #DropGold

https://dropgold.com/drop-gold/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=2019_q3_MS

Do you have any idea what a pain in the ass it is to get rid of gold?
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September 09, 2019, 04:41:34 PM

A good opsec security is just a part of the equation trying to avoiding crimes involving crypto’s happens to you:
Quote
Norwegian bitcoin millionaire jumped down 2 stories from his balcony after man with shotgun broke in to his house. This is why you never tell anyone you own BTC

https://twitter.com/redditbtc/status/1170809574607249409?s=21

This is my suggestion.
Fillippone, your fellow Mexican WO pal.
Going to a trekking in Yucatàn trying to forget the fact I just lost my private keys in a boating accident!


EDIT: for the few of you who do not speak norvegian:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/norweigan-bitcoin-millionaire-jumps-from-balcony-to-flee-armed-burglar



Nothing to do with Opsec. The guy is in Norway. In Norway everyone can see each others' salaries and tax payments. All the would be thief had to do was look up crypto companies and see how much money they were reporting.

Utterly barking.
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September 09, 2019, 04:45:31 PM

#Gold made sense when transactions were physical interactions, but our digital world demands a form of digital gold. #DropGold

https://dropgold.com/drop-gold/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=2019_q3_MS

Do you have any idea what a pain in the ass it is to get rid of gold?

Just leave it on the curb, I'll come by for pickup after work.
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