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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
Dec. 2020 - 43 (33.1%)
Jan. 2021 - 14 (10.8%)
Feb. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24681838 times)
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Searing
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September 12, 2019, 04:42:23 PM


Argentia and Austria already have 100 year bonds. And apparently Argentina is on the break of default... .


Question: If Aregentina defaults does that mean your 100-year bond is also toast? Or will that maybe still exist and come back after such a default?

(unlikely it will come back from such, but asking)

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September 12, 2019, 05:01:18 PM
Merited by Ludwig Von (1)


Argentia and Austria already have 100 year bonds. And apparently Argentina is on the break of default... .


Question: If Aregentina defaults does that mean your 100-year bond is also toast? Or will that maybe still exist and come back after such a default?

(unlikely it will come back from such, but asking)

brad


The 100 year argentinian bond is denominated in USD, not in ARS.
This means that, in normal circumstances (think a bond issued Denmark in EUR) this bond is more likely to default because the central bank cannot "print" the money to pay the interests (Cfr: Greenspan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ck3FuTzZvhI).
But this bond is different, as this bond was sold maily abroad,the investors wanted very specific warranties and fund being segregated specifically to pay that bond.
Nevertheless, this bond paying an annual coupon of 7.125 is trading at 44 (off the recent lows of 37). I.e. you can go flat receiving 7 coupons. Out of 100.

In case of domestic default (not paying debt in ARS) of course that bond would suffer, but you have to consider that usually the most hit debt is the shorter, the one they have to actually repay.
This is meant to be repaid in 2117, so plenty of time to think about it (and to default again multiple times).
This is something more toxic than Bitcoin... for the man of the street.
Think only about hte equivalent Austrian bond: same maturity, annual coupon of 2.10 in EUR... it can be your for only 180...


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September 12, 2019, 05:07:38 PM

OT: This is a HUGE red alert flag if the U.S. is seriously considering this...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/mnuchin-says-the-treasury-is-seriously-considering-issuing-a-50-year-bond-next-year.html

Zero interest rates in the U.S. soontm

BUY BITCOIN. BTFD.

I know that Trump via executive order on paper can ban Bitcoin. What if anything would it due to price and/or consequences of such idiocy

if he attempted such? Or would it just be a big yawn and ignored?

later

brad

It wouldn't be bright, a lot of his base are crypto users. Remember Trump campaign was born on the internet, it was people on the internet (4chan, Reddit, Twitter) that pushed or "memed" him to victory. Also Steph Bannon, the guy who he gets many of his ideas from is Pro-Crypto advocate.
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September 12, 2019, 05:14:09 PM

I know that Trump via executive order on paper can ban Bitcoin. What if anything would it due to price and/or consequences of such idiocy
if he attempted such?
It wouldn't be bright

Brightness isn't a hallmark trait any of the Trumps are known for. I think it's consistent with Trump's lack of critical thinking if he were to enact a unilateral move against crypto. And the old guard on both sides of the aisle are very wary of crypto so it could get considerably more rocky before it gets better on the regulation front. Good news is they won't live forever, and the mainstream bankers, at least the worker bees are seemingly far more crypto aware.
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September 12, 2019, 05:20:40 PM

OT: This is a HUGE red alert flag if the U.S. is seriously considering this...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/mnuchin-says-the-treasury-is-seriously-considering-issuing-a-50-year-bond-next-year.html

Zero interest rates in the U.S. soontm

BUY BITCOIN. BTFD.


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1172120964232093697

This is good for Bitcoin. Let them burn.
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September 12, 2019, 05:31:47 PM

Years ago, my last superbike also had the number 900, just remembering, it has been a flash in the mind, it's age...
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September 12, 2019, 05:45:20 PM

People underestimate how quickly Bitcoin will go from $20k to $50k and then $100k.

Most of the new people have never seen a full bull market. They have no idea how much Bitcoin will pump once it really gets going!

https://twitter.com/btc_macro/status/1172129478048243712?s=21


^
Keep it coming Cheesy
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September 12, 2019, 05:46:54 PM


27. xhomerx10 "mmmm cleavage" his dog's name is ciggratte




Yeah, that was a drag. Cheesy


...

The EU blocked the takeover of the LSE by the German Exchange a couple of years ago.

Let’s hope Boris is paying attention.  
More than his job's worth to flog off the LSE to China IMO.   Even Boris isn't THAT stupid.  

Much of the UK's income is invisibles (insurance / banking etc.) and most of that is based in London with the LSE and other exchanges at its epicentre.  Selling the LSE effectively to the PBOC won't happen (in a sane world).

I think you're underestimating Boris... The level of insanity he's capable of is practically unlimited...

Yep, an inveterate liar with a Churchill fetish who was at best an average Oxford student - what could go wrong?   In my defence, I did qualify my statement with 'in a sane world' - of course the problem is that we are not necessarily in one.

That did not go unnoticed.Smiley

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September 12, 2019, 05:54:52 PM

OT: This is a HUGE red alert flag if the U.S. is seriously considering this...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/mnuchin-says-the-treasury-is-seriously-considering-issuing-a-50-year-bond-next-year.html

Zero interest rates in the U.S. soontm

BUY BITCOIN. BTFD.

I know that Trump via executive order on paper can ban Bitcoin. What if anything would it due to price and/or consequences of such idiocy

if he attempted such? Or would it just be a big yawn and ignored?

later

brad


Well you can't ban code, so realistically worst US can do is prohibit banks dealing with BTC and close US based exchanges. Price would instantaneously dump, and BTC market will go underground in US. But i'm a strong believer that current global financial system is a zero sum game, meaning what's bad for US would be good for the other side China, Russia, EU?, Iran etc... So the growth will just come from there
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September 12, 2019, 06:28:01 PM

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $ 10,210

And I have 40 pages in the queue to look for.

May be I can take help from JSRAW 😉

Here you go bro

1. .................................
-snip-
Great summary as usual! Merited.

I have a suggestion. How about tagging your summaries with some unique identifier like #JSRAWdigest or something like that? It would make it a lot easier when catching up  Cool
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September 12, 2019, 06:36:20 PM

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $ 10,210

And I have 40 pages in the queue to look for.

May be I can take help from JSRAW 😉

Here you go bro

1. .................................
-snip-
Great summary as usual! Merited.

I have a suggestion. How about tagging your summaries with some unique identifier like #JSRAWdigest or something like that? It would make it a lot easier when catching up  Cool
I have another suggestion: hyperlink to the message: when you say “A lot of commentaries about babes climbing rocks” I would like to click on that entry and being taken to the appropriate posts (please break the rule in case of another infamous Mic toilet pic)
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September 12, 2019, 06:55:58 PM


I am lost.

What's a jojo effect?

Last I recall was that jo-squared was trying to make some kind of assertion that king daddy bitcoin gave some kind of ratt's ass concern about the price movement of litecoin.....

Does jo-squared have another (hopefully better) theory?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yo-yo_effect

BTC is having the same thing a bit Smiley not in weight but in USD value, up and down like people having a j(y)oj(y)o-effect from dieting.....

When a person with to high weight goes on a diet to lose weight fast it always comes back with some extra weight....  (when they stop there stupid kind of diet like yoghurt diet, cucumber diet, starving there self etc)
 
Bears trying to get the price down .... So higher price is to be expected Tongue

Ok.

That makes a kind of sense.   
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September 12, 2019, 07:04:44 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



Still in the triangle. If this breaks out upwards, this is going to play out exactly like anon predicted. $16k in October.

Big 200/350D MA Golden cross is supporting this too. You can't get more bullish than this.

Good news is, it looks like there will be another month (maybe 2 at best) to collect cheap coins. Possibly our last chance. Consolidation is happening around here. Anything you buy from here may return you x6-x10 profits in a year.

BAKKT will be the trigger probably.

I was also thinkin about Torque's post.

Those wondering about the impact of BAKKT on the market, needs to realize something else.
It's not the fact that they are going live within days. It's completely the relative timing.
They could have gone live over a year ago. The tech was already in place and working behind closed doors.
But they didn't. They delayed it.
So ask yourself: Why go live now? Why not a year ago? Or why not kick the can for another year?

Either Anon knew BAKKT was going to launch on Sept 23 (less likely), or the BAKKT officers put the launch date on September, purposefully just to amplify the gains. Right before the big parabolic move.

@mindrust - You’re turning me on!
This kind of post should be X rated. It’s giving me a sweat Grin

Descending Triangles will break to the downside 55% of the time with an average decline of 19%. This would pull us back to 7k ish, which is the phase 2 trend line from the uber bull of 2017.
Descending Triangles will fail to break to the downside 45% of the time. ( break to the upside ) with an average rise of 42% , which would bring us to 14 k ish.

Essentially with  Descending Triangles it is best to wait for the break either up or down. They are not particularly reliable until the break.

There is a great book called "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Bulkowski " It might be out print? It is a great resource as it breaks down the odds of the 50 or so most reoccurring patterns.

I am ready for both scenarios.

There might be a correction to $8k but even if happens, I don't think It'll stay there for long before shooting back up.

%45 is still good odds.

Totally agree with you on macro analysis. "Smart traders" seem so confident this triangle has to play out the same way as in 2018 just because it's also descending but very few take into consideration the difference in 2018 and 2019 macro trends. Any triangle is nothing more than a consolidation pattern in its nature and all of them more often continue the trend rather than reverse it. The reason we see descending triangles break down most of times is only because they tend to form more often in downtrends (2018 and 2014 for examples).

Always look at the bigger picture and don't get rekt, everyone.

This is what I've been trying to tell. "The trend." Trend is the magic word here. That golden cross you see in the chart is the biggest hint of what's going on.

It may still break downwards but I think the chances are higher for it to be upwards, because... the trend.
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September 12, 2019, 07:05:37 PM

Our beautiful 2019 bull flag, So excited to be part of This. Right. Here!! The stage is set and the vote is cast  Wink
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September 12, 2019, 07:06:35 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), xhomerx10 (1), JSRAW (1)

Paashaas majorly bullish - WO posters read & begin to dream.

I can definitely deal with a new ATH this year (there’s not long left in 2019 though).


Its not high to climb either  Cheesy

Hopefully, it’d be the best Christmas present, a new ATH Smiley

It's a mere doubling... meh.   It'll come.  It's not a question of if, but when.  The price we pay to become more wealthy from our fickle mistress, is simply - as always...  patience.

I’m calling 100k per coin in Q3 or Q4 of 2021. The real fun begins then, I probably won’t sell much at 20k.

I remember about 1 or probably closer to two years ago, you had a "sell almost all" BTC plan for $50k-ish.  My have times changed in terms of what seems to be a bit of an evolution in your perspective.   Sounds like you may even be meandering into a kind of sell less than 30% at $50k?  And maybe sell another 50% or so at $100k?

I am speculating that the amount of financialization that is coming into bitcoin is much more bullish in your factored more bullish transformation than it had been, even a couple of years ago?

Also, the attacks on bitcoin, seemingly from within the community (but gotta take that with a grain of salt, too, in terms of origins of attackers), such as forkening and seemingly legitimate complaints about bitcoin's superiority are rapidly becoming even less and less convincing than they were a year or two ago?
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September 12, 2019, 07:08:37 PM

I usually buy & the price goes down but feeling quite happy with myself seeing this price move. Over the last 2 weeks I added 2 more full bitcoin’s (inheritance - God bless you Auntie June) & it looks like we COULD be ready to start moving upwards.

$11,000 by next week?

There seems to be something in the air in cryptospace atm, I dunno maybe it’s just me but it feels like we might start going places by the end of the year as we get what, 6 months away from the halving at the turn of the year?

I’m saying $14,000 by NY.

$14,000 would be a pretty good starting point for the 2020-2021 halving season!
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September 12, 2019, 07:12:12 PM

ok ok, wheres my hopium?

It's .... S e p t e m b e r ... things have to start moving. Just a lil' bit more patience. Just a little...

Urrrgh. Sick of being POOR!

You are poor, P_Shep?

You been around here quite a bit longer than the rest of us, especially measured in terms of block time, so golly gee whiz, you shouldn't be too poor these days.

I know, I know, I know, many of us would not mind to be a bit richer in the sense that you can never be too rich, just like you can never be too young or too skinny.  Is that what you mean?
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September 12, 2019, 07:16:20 PM

2019 - Q4, 1BTC=1BTC whatever happens

2020 - Q3, after halving 1BTC=1BTC this 1BTC isn't longer isn't smaller isn't red or blue, its still the same BTC

2021 till 20xx - Q1,2,3,4 me, LFC and kurious having our yearly  meet-up somewhere in the sun on a beach with cocktail and stuff, no matter when in the year, just when we want to Cheesy


(Could be with way more members of-course, but LFC and kurious are just the only ones I met from this board and with who I have had good times already Cheesy)

Is there going to be one of those BIG kind of ships involved?  I mean like a private exclusive use kind of an arrangement rather than a sharing situation.
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September 12, 2019, 07:18:15 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

Paashaas majorly bullish - WO posters read & begin to dream.

I can definitely deal with a new ATH this year (there’s not long left in 2019 though).


Its not high to climb either  Cheesy

Hopefully, it’d be the best Christmas present, a new ATH Smiley

It's a mere doubling... meh.   It'll come.  It's not a question of if, but when.  The price we pay to become more wealthy from our fickle mistress, is simply - as always...  patience.

I’m calling 100k per coin in Q3 or Q4 of 2021. The real fun begins then, I probably won’t sell much at 20k.

I remember about 1 or probably closer to two years ago, you had a "sell almost all" BTC plan for $50k-ish.  My have times changed in terms of what seems to be a bit of an evolution in your perspective.   Sounds like you may even be meandering into a kind of sell less than 30% at $50k?  And maybe sell another 50% or so at $100k?

I am speculating that the amount of financialization that is coming into bitcoin is much more bullish in your factored more bullish transformation than it had been, even a couple of years ago?

Also, the attacks on bitcoin, seemingly from within the community (but gotta take that with a grain of salt, too, in terms of origins of attackers), such as forkening and seemingly legitimate complaints about bitcoin's superiority are rapidly becoming even less and less convincing than they were a year or two ago?

I wouldn't sell shit If I knew BTC was going to stabilize at $100k. My biggest reason is, other than getting the physical stuff that I wanted for years, most people will be selling (for the same reasons which I just told) and It will drive the price down no matter what you do.

If you sell at $50k and 50k/btc will make you incredibly rich (in other means you won't be crying if btc keeps going up), then there might also be a possibility in the future to get your bitcoins back for a cheaper price because,  many people will be selling from those prices and drive the prices down. Even though you don't really care but the opportunity will (or might) be there.

Wanting to sell is not the same thing as wanting to get rid of btc, no no no. It is just playing your cards right, using the opportunity to become even richer.

My cool price is exactly $100k right now. Any coins I'd sell from $100k, I won't be missing them. Any price under $100k would make me nervous (what if it keeps going up)
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September 12, 2019, 07:23:17 PM

It only works when I say it.  Roll Eyes

WellWe'reWaiting.png

 Cheesy
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