Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

My explanation for price pump and following dump is the following:

Related to this news, I can tell you that so far, the best explanation for the BTC price dump is the following:
1.Big swinging dicks got ready for a successful BAKKT launch, comparable to CME/CBOT futures, with 5000x Bitcoin volumes in the first days. This would have sent the BTCUSD Price skyrocketing.
2.Big swinging dicks loaded guns leveraging long position on Bitmex and buying bitcoin outright. This happened in the past months.
3. BAKKT launch was a disappointment, with ridiculous volumers.
4. Big swinging dicks understood BAKKT was not meant to be an immediate success they had to close their long, because VaR constraints.
5. This forced liquidation, than moved the price lower, forcing slower money to force their own liquidations, like a snowball effect.
6. Unfortunate coincidence (no tinfoil mode here) Hashrate dipped spurring a lot of concern (again, no conspiracies theories about a 51% attack against BAKKT, it might have been only a cloud services outage in inner China that temporarily stopped some mining pool).


Speaking of futures, I wrote this thread on the future definition, usage, contract detail, lingo etc.

Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask!


Please let me know if you like and how to improve it!
I am going to add details on the next days. This work was more time draining than expected!

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[BitcoinGirl.Club]

What is it in 2024. I failed to recognize it.

[makrospex]

There's a bit more downward momentum than the beginning of the day now, but pretty good resistance figures too.
Maybe a little chance to visit $7.500?

EDIT: The time i wrote this it bounced off $7.940, there obviously has to be a substantial dump to break through to $7.5k, despite the low volumes of today.
I'll wait if monday will be bloody or not.

[Gyrsur]

What is it in 2024. I failed to recognize it.

seems for me like a truck in the basket. roughly 500k worth.

[mindrust]

In November 2018 we broke down sharply from 6k on Nov 14, it lingered range bound for 5 days around 5500 and on the 5th day it plummeted to the 4ks.

For those seeing thinking the breakdown of 9k is analogous to the 6k breakdown last winter, it should be noted we have lingered for 5 days around 8k since the 9k breakdown and if its a similar pattern we can expect a sharp drop very soon, maybe today.

Holding in this area is critical to avoid further massive damage to price.

Be safe out there.

good find, btw. but the drop was caused by fundamental issues (HashWar).

EDIT: question because I cannot remember. what caused the rally to > $10k from the bottom $3.2k? were there fundamental events for this? not really right?

BAKKT bought 10k coins. I don't know any other good explanation to that pump.

ok, thank you! and now they are selling back slowly to investors. roughly $6k should be the lowest bottom until halving and some time after in my humble opinion. if nothing wild will happen like the HashWar or TulipFund / Faketoshi.

Exactly, BAKKT bought their stack and now its investors are dumping on each other. It will go on and on till only buyers and holders left. $6k is also many people expect as the next bottom. I don't want it but I am ready for it.

[Last of the V8s]

is it the whole supermarket building?

[El duderino_]

Nobody was talking about BAKKT when the price was rising....

I don’t think BAKKT have had anything to do with any pump yet from this year....

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We are used to it. Going back to $5k or even $3k at this point doesn't mean anything to me other than "cheap coins". We already survived it once, we can do it again.

If we drop to $3,000 I will honestly put every single penny I have into bitcoin. I’m already way too heavily (for most people) invested in bitcoin but I will put my emergency fiat stash into bitcoin (which I said I’d never do).

[fillippone]

Nobody was talking about BAKKT when the price was rising....

I don’t think BAKKT have had anything to do with any pump yet from this year....

For sure we spoke about Bakkt being a positive catalyst on the exiting from the crypto winter.
There was a lot of theories about bakkt launch, with mini-dump each time it got delayed..

[makrospex]

Somehow the last few days remind me of early september 2018, when we were around $7.3k, and entered capitulation stage in mid december after going sideways at around $6k.
If this repeats, $6k wet dreams could become true. So i'll probably keep at least half of my fiat until feb 2020.

[JayJuanGee]

That's why people warn others to not sell any bitcoins unless it is your final move.

Many noobs sold their coins when the price was 1-2k. That's not really bad actually... if you bought many when it was $100 or below. After having X10 returns why would anyone complain? But that's not the case with these nocoiners/shitcoiners.

They either bought too little or they couldn't wait long enough. Maybe they doubled or tripled their $1k to 2-3k. And that's it. That's why they are so bitter now.

They had the chance to hodl till $20k but they fucked it up. I had some of their problems too. It is a combination of overinvesting, not having complete trust in the asset you are investing, listening to FUDders etc. All of these can cause fear if you don't know what you are doing.*

It is pretty easy to lose your focus and lost the sight of the bigger more important picture. Thanks god I started to gain my vision in 2016 and it didn't really happen in one day. It was a damn slow process for me.

*Here is a cheatsheet: If you can sleep tight (I mean if it doesn't bother you) at night, you are doing it right.

All they need to do now is to forget the past and replan their investment strategy (like I did in the past) but they are refusing this because they are both (unnecessarily) proud and dumb at the same time.

I sold all when it was $1k. Got my main stash after $2k. I sold high, bought even higher. And still winning.

It seems that a lot of forum members (or at least WO readers) should be able to profit from hearing your renditions, and even see that persistence in learning and attempting to put your learning to practice (like you seem to be doing on an ongoing basis) will tend to pay off, especially in the longer term (even if there are a decent number of mistakes along the way).

It can be quite tough to categorize differences between no coiners, pre-coiners and previous coiners (who are currently no coiners) who are going to join into BTC again.

Surely, like you mentioned, mindrust, there are likely a BIG ass number of example of people who got into bitcoin and then got out after making sufficiently decent profits, and then they want to get back in, but the BTC price never ends up going back down below the price of one of their earlier sales.

Therefore, they end up kind of mentally handicapping themselves because they continue to wait for the BTC price to come back down below their previous selling (and making profits) price.  

I personally believe that one of the best solutions to this mentally handicapping tendency is to engage in a BTC strategy that causes you to never sell all of your coins, no matter what, even if you believe that there is a likely blow off top going on.  Even if you end up selling 50% or 80% or some other seemingly high percentage of your BTC holdings, you also hang onto a decent amount of BTC at all times, so that you always have some skin in the BTC game.

But, like you mentioned, part of the problem that a large number of people have is a certain amount of lack of confidence in the fundamentals of the underlying asset (in this case bitcoin) that causes them to value their wealth in dollars rather than bitcoin, and therefore, they end up either 1) selling too much too early or 2) they get all worked up because they could have made more money if they would have sold more BTC at a higher price (during a seemingly prolonged BTC downfall period).  

Sometimes, I have some difficulties understanding the ladder (2) perspective by people who get so fucking concerned about their not having had maximized their profits in their BTC because of BTC price volatility, even if they might have sold a pretty decent chunk of their BTC at a higher price than the current price, but they are so worried that they could have made more and their wealth in dollars is going down because they continue to hold a decent stash of bitcoins.  Many of us still have to go through the suffering of this number 2 situation, and even some of us long term WO BTC HODLers express some of our frustration when our dollar wealth is going down because the BTC price continues to correct way beyond even our most extreme expectations (for longer and lower).  

Another seeming solution to the psychological issues that we get from perspective (2) seems to have historically been solved in bitcoinlandia with the passage of time in which guys (and gal) have been able to employ a mostly HODL BTC and BTC accumulate strategy which causes them to have gone through more and more up/down cycles, which in the end, causes them to having had built a decent amount of dollar equity in their bitcoin holdings, and therefore having had built more confidence that the BTC price is only likely to fall so far in order to erode into such equity cushion that has build-up through the passage of time of a sufficient amount of time (likely 3.5 years or more, but if you double such 3.5 years to 7 years (I probably should not even be talking about 7 years, because I have only been in bitcoin for 6 years myself, and of course we know bitcoin has really only been in existence for less than 11 years and only with a meaningful price for less than 9 years - even if we are being charitable towards its price existence timeline), then such equity cushion seems even more likely to have become sufficiently large to ensure such a psychological comfort level).

[jojo69]

We are used to it. Going back to $5k or even $3k at this point doesn't mean anything to me other than "cheap coins". We already survived it once, we can do it again.

If we drop to $3,000 I will honestly put every single penny I have into bitcoin. I’m already way too heavily (for most people) invested in bitcoin but I will put my emergency fiat stash into bitcoin (which I said I’d never do).

I hope you would.  I hope I would too.  But from experience I suspect we would be sick to our stomachs with fear.  It is astonishingly contagious at such times.

Let us hope that we muster the fortitude to take advantage of opportunities when they come.

[_javi_]

I'm already sick of reading WOs posting of such low prices.

As everybody is expecting BTC that low, i bet it will start climbing up any moment now..

go BTC go!

[Gyrsur]

Nobody was talking about BAKKT when the price was rising....

I don’t think BAKKT have had anything to do with any pump yet from this year....

For sure we spoke about Bakkt being a positive catalyst on the exiting from the crypto winter.
There was a lot of theories about bakkt launch, with mini-dump each time it got delayed..

Bakkt case would be a good explanation for this ups and downs after the plump to $3.2k and a fairly weighted price of $6k for BTC. real costs of production and number of all transactions did matter in the past even if we got exaggerations in both directions. cost of production will increase after halving and in the past it took some time to get an effect on the price. let's hope $6k will be the bottom even if we don't like it after the Bakkt rally and our wet dreams to be millionaires in no time.  

EDIT: there will be Options on the CME in Q1/2020 too. I hope they will have an effect of compensation to the Futures because you have both available in every mature high finance market. thought I have to learn about it more.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/brink_thinker/status/1177543242415562754?s=21

Who feels like this while buyting the DIP??

hahahahahaaha

Even though I frequently (admittedly almost always) buy BTC dips that are greater than 10% (historically much smaller increments), I almost never feel like that illustration, except if the BTC price suddenly does a 10% or more bounce back after I had bought.

On the other hand, I do feel like the guy going down the rales and just hoping, hoping and hoping that nothing goes wrong because my balls (and other important body parts) are surely at play.

[ivomm]

The support at 7.5K looks pretty solid especially on Bitstamp - above 2K BTC need to be sold to get that low. It is unusually high. Typically on Bitstamp is needed 300-500 BTC to move the price by 5%. On CB it is 1.95K. And this hasn't changed since the first drop to 7.7K. May be the traders stopped selling because of this support. Now, if the bears decide to put pressure on this support, it will cost them a lot. And they risk a violent rebound above 10K, which will ruin their plan of a long suppressing of the price. What they hope is the support to dissolve itself and with much smaller sells to get there. Hopefully the bulls won't allow it. Next 7 days are critical.   I would give 75% chances that 7.7K was the last bottom and we will be recovering above 9k in the next week.

[Icygreen]

The truth is treason
To an empire of lies
Power in numbers

From my science side, I agree we need to stop trashing the planet. I don't want to breathe Asia's burnt chemical garbage into my lungs nor eat their plastic ocean waste whenever I want seafood. I think we all agree on this part.

Surely agreeable, I see most of the educated youth of SE Asia becoming sensitive to environmental issues along with great education programs/ initiatives, I have hope that things will change with this generation.

The haiku was inspired while realizing injustices served upon whistle blowers and journalists who report truths to the people about our overlords government but ya,   I guess it works on many levels.

Sentiment was something like this: We need each other desperately. A collective conscience among the people, power in numbers, Bitcoin enables this. Maybe

We need each other
Mans collective consciousness  
Power in numbers

Happy haiku Sunday
 

[JayJuanGee]

Humans are absolutely absymal at spotting real threats and great at spotting imaginary ones.

When the people in power spend your money they waste it on so many things that don't matter and neglect everything that does.



https://twitter.com/Dan_Jeffries1/status/1177555090363863040?s=20

The sad thing is I'm fated to end in the big leftmost orange circle with all the other boring people; that is unless I start taking some sort of statin and blood pressure medications. In which case I'll end up in the nice red cancer circle instead. Still boring.

How do people die from mental health illnesses if its not suicide?

Guess there's still time to walk into an industrial-size meat grinder believing its the arms of god.

Diet, sleep and exercise (in that order) are probably better than medications, in the long run.. but in the short term, the medications could help if you are not figuring out something meaningful and practical in the former.

[Biodom]

We are used to it. Going back to $5k or even $3k at this point doesn't mean anything to me other than "cheap coins". We already survived it once, we can do it again.

If we drop to $3,000 I will honestly put every single penny I have into bitcoin. I’m already way too heavily (for most people) invested in bitcoin but I will put my emergency fiat stash into bitcoin (which I said I’d never do).

I hope you would.  I hope I would too.  But from experience I suspect we would be sick to our stomachs with fear.  It is astonishingly contagious at such times.

Let us hope that we muster the fortitude to take advantage of opportunities when they come.

It's unlikely to happen...most people can't buy bottoms.
In 2014 I was buying as btc was declining, stopped at about $300, never bought at $150.
During 2018 decline I bought a little at 4K, did not buy any at 3K.
The problem with bottoms: you never know which one is the real one.
DCA or buying into rising market is the way to go for most people, IMHO.

[JayJuanGee]

There appears to be a bundle of evidence pointing to the fact that psychiatric drugs shorten life-span generally. Also and more specifically, neuroleptic malignant syndrome caused by antipsychotics, serotonin syndrome caused by antidepressants, etc., can be fatal. I'm guessing then that the deaths caused by mental illness can be attributed to the medications mentally ill people sometimes take. Side effects, if you will.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/science-isnt-golden/201109/full-disclosure-needed-about-psychiatric-drugs-shorten-life

I wonder mostly about your chosen image here, BMB.


Seems that you are trying to say something about "true" bitcoin believers?

Accordingly, does the chosen picture symbolize or depict any person (or avatar) that WO participants should know?