Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kellrobinson]

Personally, I've been noticing the estimates for the bubble tops decreasing. I recall in 2018, some popular tradingview and twitter guys were claiming we were just taking a breather on the way up to $400K. Now there seems to be a prevailing sentiment that we'll top out <=$100K on the next bubble. Who knows? There are so many different prediction models that are all supported by past data, but give wildly different future results.

Those peaks represent transients.  With very few data points, less than half a dozen in bitcoin's entire history, it's hard to gin up the confidence to make predictions about the magnitude of the next peak, if any.

In contrast, there's underlying support in the form of a parabola with a horizontal axis, which has dozens or hundreds of data points (red curve, below).
It's a pleasant coincidence that a time-shift of the support curve produces another curve that just touches the tops of the bubbles that followed the first two halvings (green curve).



Extrapolating the timing of the halvings predicts the next peak between $150k and $200k.

[AlcoHoDL]

($10K) TENacious Badger Challenge

Inspired by LFC's Vegeta Challenge, I present you my little "TENacious Badger Challenge":

As I am a little poor and stingy this is not about the money, there will be a little prize of TEN US DOLLARS in Bitcoin (exactly 0.001BTC at $10K) for whomever is first in posting a badger after Bitcoin price crosses $10K. In addition to that you will surely earn the admiration and awe of the entire WO community for your awesome badger like reflexes! ... And maybe even some additional merits depending on the awesomeness factor of your very own badger post!

Rules:
====

1) Bitstamp price needs to be *OVER* $10K. Nothing stops the attack of the badger... the fight is not over until the enemy completely bites the dust.

2) There will be ONLY one winner that will be decided at my sole discretion based on whatever evidence I and other WO members see.

3) I can change (only slightly for improvement) the rules at any point BEFORE the $10K goal is reached.  I will welcome suggestions too.

4) As I don't like to have standing "liabilities" FOREVER, this challenge is valid only during January and February 2020. I may later extend the period at my discretion if $10K has not yet been reached. I hope this won't be needed.

5) I have just realised that "Tenacious Badger Hops" is an already existing brand. This little challenge is in no way related to that brand in any way and, to avoid ANY possible confusion, their very own logo WON'T be accepted as a valid badger.

6) I am unsure if I should enforce the rule of posting a screen capture of Bistamp trading screen to make sure the price has already been crossed. I accept suggestions about this but, in the meantime (if price were to cross $10K sooner than I expect) it IS REQUIRED.

7) Again, if someone thinks I should change anything or I am forgetting anything/making any mistake, please tell me! This is my first time doing this.

Go badger, go!

Nice one!

Suggestion for Rule 8: The badger & screenshot shall be posted simultaneously in the same post. The [Edit] button shall never be used to add or modify anything after the post is made.

Looks like your game is going to end soon...
...and everyone's the winner!

[JayJuanGee]

next stop 12,200

I need a floor of $11,111.12 USD (do the math the reason is obvious).

Thus, if that ever becomes the 'floor' or Low on Bitcoin, never to be dropped below again, as BTC goes every upward in adoption and continues to exist, I'll never, ever, whine about

my disappointment on BTC price ever again!
 :
(it's all about me people..just to be clear...)

Brad

Maybe 6 months to a year that number will become a floor never to be further breached?  Speculation, of course.

[bitserve]

Nice one!

Suggestion for Rule 8: The badger & screenshot shall be posted simultaneously in the same post. The [Edit] button shall never be used to add or modify anything after the post is made.

Looks like your game is going to end soon...
...and everyone's the winner!

I am thinking about that but... How can I detect if someone uses the edit button in the grace period? Is there a way?

Or maybe I should just add it to the rules and trust in the good faith of participants as this is just for fun and the prize is trivial/irrelevant.

[AlcoHoDL]

Nice one!

Suggestion for Rule 8: The badger & screenshot shall be posted simultaneously in the same post. The [Edit] button shall never be used to add or modify anything after the post is made.

Looks like your game is going to end soon...
...and everyone's the winner!

I am thinking about that but... How can I detect if someone uses the edit button in the grace period? Is there a way?

Or maybe I should just add it to the rules and trust in the good faith of participants as this is just for fun and the prize is trivial/irrelevant.

Yeah, I thought about that too. Maybe just trust in good faith... Another idea is to ask for the screenshot to contain the timestamp (Bitstamp shows it on the bottom-right of the graph). The earliest capture wins, even if not the very first to post.

Hmmm, maybe just let it roll as-is (no rule) and judge for yourself. When it goes over $10,000 we'll all be winners anyway...

Edit: Going to HoDLsleep now, I hope I dream of badgers, or even better, wake up and see badgers all over WO!

[Icygreen]

https://bitcoinist.com/nazis-are-using-bitcoin-us-govt-officials-warn/
I thought you were using silver r0ach?
Now look at the mess you started.

[infofront]

It's official. Nazi Chads use BTC. Nazi beta cucks use silver. 

[bitebits]

6) I am unsure if I should enforce the rule of posting a screen capture of Bitstamp chart to make sure the price has already just been been crossed. I accept suggestions about this [...]

Nice game bitserve

Think the easiest work around to 'cheating' with the forum post timestamp, is requiring the Badger and Bitstamp Price to be in a single screenshot.
This can be easily achieved using Snipping Tool (Windows), Shift-Command-4 (Mac), Shift+Prt Scrn (Ubuntu).

The above method as well avoids making OPSEC mistakes: screenshot of open tabs, desktop, etc.

[VB1001]

Good morning WO's, Indeed it is over $9000 looking at 9155 and climbing. This is fine.
Tet is coming soon and the karaoke parties are starting. I'm expecting prices to follow the celebrations of the next 10 days.
Friends and atmosphere all in place.  Here's a shot of our back yard currently. Any sleuths out there find this? Shouldn't be terribly difficult.

Falassarna Beach, Crete, Greece

[mindrust]

Let's say you come up with $1million as nice round number. Again, this could as low as $500K in some countries and just for a very modest lifestyle up to $5 million for US, with many years to live, and with a nice lifestyle.

Daym you need $5m to live in the US?

Even becoming a hnwi is not enough? Fuuck.

Should have gone all in   (aimed for the head)

[VB1001]

Nice one!

Suggestion for Rule 8: The badger & screenshot shall be posted simultaneously in the same post. The [Edit] button shall never be used to add or modify anything after the post is made.

Looks like your game is going to end soon...
...and everyone's the winner!

I am thinking about that but... How can I detect if someone uses the edit button in the grace period? Is there a way?

Or maybe I should just add it to the rules and trust in the good faith of participants as this is just for fun and the prize is trivial/irrelevant.

If I remember correctly, when you visit the forum without logging in, you see all the edits in the posts with the time of the edition.
The fastest and safest thing is for someone to quote the supposed winner quickly.

edit: Forget it, there are 10 minutes to edit the publication without seeing that it has been edited.

[mindrust]

Plan A has failed, it is time for "plan B"


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/LGfs4PUa-Bitcoin-A-Long-Tern-Market-Analysis/

See you at $100k in December.

[VB1001]

Personally, I've been noticing the estimates for the bubble tops decreasing. I recall in 2018, some popular tradingview and twitter guys were claiming we were just taking a breather on the way up to $400K. Now there seems to be a prevailing sentiment that we'll top out <=$100K on the next bubble. Who knows? There are so many different prediction models that are all supported by past data, but give wildly different future results. There's S2F, and other power law based models, various exponential models, basic TA models like yours and the one below, etc.

I'm leaning toward the S2F power law corridor, which would put us at $100K+ late next year. I intuitively feel this is too high, and the model is too aggressive. However, I've seen various models converging around $100K at the end of next year. Perhaps this will be the final bull market for bitcoin which results in 3,000%+ returns from the bottom. As you noted, the 80%+ drops have been continuing, so perhaps the huge volatility, while being a bit muted on the upside, will continue for at least one more cycle. The last 80% drop could've foreshadowed another massive bubble.

That reminds me, I just saw this posted on twitter yesterday:

@Josh_Rager
$BTC Unpopular Opinion:

The next Bitcoin peak high will not be as high as most people think

Lots of analysis out there point from $100k to $300k to $1M

Simple rate of return will show you bottom to peak return reduces by around 20% each cycle

IMO, next high hits $75k to $85k

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1218265268243304449

These figures could be perfectly the new ATH, but to get to it, it has to have a lot of media noise in Bitcoin, the bottom is inside, the weak hands are outside, now we only have the hodlers that buy a small amount when a few hundred dollars falls, you need new BTC adopters for this and it may take a while.

[Icygreen]

Good morning WO's, Indeed it is over $9000 looking at 9155 and climbing. This is fine.
Tet is coming soon and the karaoke parties are starting. I'm expecting prices to follow the celebrations of the next 10 days.
Friends and atmosphere all in place.  Here's a shot of our back yard currently. Any sleuths out there find this? Shouldn't be terribly difficult.

Falassarna Beach, Crete, Greece

Greece is nice guess, sounds beautiful, would love to visit but never been there. The boats should be unmistakable here.

[VB1001]

^
Damn it, it seemed too easy

[Biodom]

Good morning WO's, Indeed it is over $9000 looking at 9155 and climbing. This is fine.
Tet is coming soon and the karaoke parties are starting. I'm expecting prices to follow the celebrations of the next 10 days.
Friends and atmosphere all in place.  Here's a shot of our back yard currently. Any sleuths out there find this? Shouldn't be terribly difficult.

Blue Lagoon, Thailand?

[Icygreen]

Spent plenty of time in Thailand in the past, haven't been there in years.
Maybe this won't be so easy, it is kinda obscure place to go. Here's better images of the boat, the locals, and the launch of a boat. Done in 30 knots of wind!
I'll add some of the monuments here if need be later.

[P_Shep]

Urgh. Tired of all this $9K. 

When 10K?

[by rallier]

Urgh. Tired of all this $9K. 

When 10K?

Not today

[jbreher]

You are a scammer

Being a scammer requires a victim. Who have I scammed, somac.? Name the aggrieved party or STFU.

The correct term is would-be scammer. 

No but in all seriousness, there was a decent analogy given in one of the many BSV ANN threads about how attempting to recreate Bitcoin 0.1 is like attempting to recreate an early Ford automobile.

imagine Henry Ford, coming back from the grave telling Ford company that cars don't need AC/heater because that is not part of the original design..what cars need are bigger windows, actually might as well remove the windshield to let more air in LOL

Craig is claiming his car is a Ford Model T when in actuality under the hood its closer to a Toyota Corolla. If he wanted to recreate the Model T, he would have just cloned the Model T instead of including all the modernizations introduced in generations (builds) afterward.

To complete the analogy, modern Bitcoin (0.19) is more like a Ford Fusion sedan. It makes use of the latest innovations in the industry to deliver an advanced version of the original product, one that couldn't have been fathomable during Henry Ford's time.

If you want to be religious about it and say the Model T is the only true car, well have fun, but don't expect other people to follow.

Sorry, but...
stupid analogy is stupid.

It would be one thing if BTC's 'innovations' were demonstrably, measurably better. However, even at this late date (two years?), how much value is being transacted on the 'improved' LN?

In short, adhering to BSV because one believes it more closely follows Satoshi's original protocol is much like a religion -- based on belief, and not much more. Its a religion every bit as much as Bitcoin (BTC) Maximalism is a religion.

Though as you say, there is some element of religiousity in either position.

Personally I find Prophet Craig to be a false prophet as his teachings are unpalatable -- pretty much devoid of any sort of morals or ethics. However, if someone else wants to accept him as a True Prophet, well, not much I can do about that.

Again with the conflation of Craig and BSV.

So far, the things he has been saying -- with regards to the BSV protocol itself -- is to bring it into further congruence with the initial satoshi protocol. Accordingly, all the other mutterings are but peripheral and irrelevant to the chain itself.

One does not need to believe any Craig <> prophet status in order to see the benefit of the direction of the BSV protocol.

Thanks for the (surprisingly) balanced response.