Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sirazimuth]

Lol
Not sure why the Chinese feel it necessary to spy on cow farms, corn fields and the vast swath of the Bible Belt where all those intelligent trumpers reside.
I mean didn’t they make tic toc to do that?

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ibminer]

At least it got shot down unlike the 3 instances during the last administration.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3844511-chinese-balloons-flew-over-us-three-times-during-trump-administration-officials/

Come on now, it seems a bit interesting that they've withheld this information and suddenly decided to release it when they get caught with their pants down while letting a foreign surveillance balloon fly over US airspace for a week.

Keep in mind, they've wanted to destroy Trump for how long??  Releasing information that Trump knowingly allowed 3 balloons to fly through the US would absolutely (IMO) destroy him with his base, so they would have come out with this information already, this comes off as fake news to cover up, distract, and/or downplay what they've done here.

We can get into the he said, she said game..  but there's an obvious video proving Biden's lack of response, yet again living up to the sleepy Joe name. And his response is to generate some story about Trump and say "hey, he did it!", ugh.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Fat chance billy bob… sorry you didn’t get the bottoms in memo at 17k$ 😝

I don't have so much confidence as to presume that the bottom is in.. even though the odds do seem to be getting better that the bottom is in.. but I am not sure how high of a percentage that we can proclaim it to be... Perhaps greater than 35% odds that the "bottom is in?"   Am I too bearish with those kinds of numbers that might suggest that there could be greater than 35% odds that the bottom is not in?

Hey Jay
For what it’s worth… I think we have a 40% chance of retesting 20k$ and 20% chance of retesting 17k$  Currently 22,800$
Lots of moving pieces with Bitcoin TA that wasn’t the case in the early days of RSI and Bollinger bands….Now It’s a mosaic of moving pieces and hidden motives!  We have all the talking heads chiming in like experts… Charlie Munger with his one eye and group of cronies… no doubt they will pull out all the stops and do everything to stop Bitcoin before the next halving in approximately 3/18/2024. I could go on and on … and write my own oped but no one cares 😝
2023 will be a crazy year of uncertainty imho…
Cheers 😎

I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying, yet I get nervous attempting to assign very high odds that seem to imply that the bottom is in when I consider that we are still in a bear market until getting above certain price points.. so for me, 20%-ish seems too low to be suggesting those high of odds (80%) that the bottom is in... Whenever we might be dealing with 35% versus 20% odds, there does not seem to be a lot of difference there, and I am even nervous about my own number maybe being too low in terms of the odds that the current bottom of $15,479 so far for this price correction might get breached (or tested).

Will the disaster in Turkey have an effect on the price of bitcoin .....

Yes.

[Hueristic]

At least it got shot down unlike the 3 instances during the last administration.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3844511-chinese-balloons-flew-over-us-three-times-during-trump-administration-officials/

Come on now, it seems a bit interesting that they've withheld this information and suddenly decided to release it when they get caught with their pants down while letting a foreign surveillance balloon fly over US airspace for a week.

Keep in mind, they've wanted to destroy Trump for how long??  Releasing information that Trump knowingly allowed 3 balloons to fly through the US would absolutely (IMO) destroy him with his base, so they would have come out with this information already, this comes off as fake news to cover up, distract, and/or downplay what they've done here.

We can get into the he said, she said game..  but there's an obvious video proving Biden's lack of response, yet again living up to the sleepy Joe name. And his response is to generate some story about Trump and say "hey, he did it!", ugh.

The official said Chinese balloons briefly transited the continental United States at least three times during the prior administration.

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3288543/f-22-safely-shoots-down-chinese-spy-balloon-off-south-carolina-coast/

[philipma1957]

$jjg...As promised, here are some numbers:

If i had bulk invested $47K instead of DCA since 2013-2014, using buys at exactly my actual timing, I would have gotten about 113-114 BTC vs 45btc (dcaing by your estimate).
Please...I did not invest 47K (could be any other number), so don't start counting it as my "basis", I simply used the number in your example.

The hypothetical no doesn't work like that... you fuck.

I was using your forum registration as the start date, and I was using $100 per week as the amount that you could have put into BTC without having any need to actively engage in price strategizing, so there is a presumption that the $100 per week is within your budget because it is money that is coming available to you once a week, so if you don't buy bitcoin with it, after 4 weeks it will add up to $400 and aver 52 weeks (1 year), it will add up to $5,200, and after 9 years, it will add up to $47k. It is not necessarily available in advance unless you are saying that you are going to take out a 9 year loan (which is also not very likely for most normies).

Deal with the reality of circumstances that normies face, and sure, you can add to the hypothetical to suggest that maybe the hypothetical person is staring out with an investment portfolio that is right around $100k or perhaps some other number, and maybe the target is to get up to 10% allocation in bitcoin within a year or some other reasonable timeline.

Another thing that I would grant you is that when you came to bitcoin in early 2014 (we are using your forum registration date, and sure you can adjust that start date too, if you like), you can look at the BTC prices, and you can see that the BTC prices had gone up more than 100x in one year, so you may well have had reasonably come to the conclusion that it would not be prudent to start to invest in bitcoin in a lump sum at that particular moment (even if you were to have a lump sum of funds available based on different circumstances - the hypothetical was not giving you a lump sum, but instead the availability of $100 per week, starting from your forum registration date)... so if you change the hypothetical, then a lot of things change..

and admit it.. you are not even trying to realistically grapple with the hypothetical.. except come up with some gotcha to show everyone how much smarter you are because you are going to buy 113.5 BTC at an average price of $414, and you are not even going to describe how you got there.

Sure, I will grant that I hardly give any shits about the actual numbers, you can tweak them, even though $100 per week that is spread over 9 years (and adds up to $47k) seems reasonable... but also starting out with having some kind of investment portfolio could be reasonable too.... and such investment portfolio in early 2014 could be $100k or it could be some other number that might seem more suitable.. there could also be some lump sum that is available to invest right away, so then the choice might be how to proceed if you have a lump sum and you also know that you have something like $100 per week that is going to continue to come into your account in the coming 9 years (yeah of course you do not know everything about the future, but you make a projection about what it might be in the future, and then when you look back at what happened (after 9 years) you can see what you actually did versus what you plan might have been.  You can attempt to make comparisons about what might have been reasonable, prudent and even realistic given mindset considerations too.. and with you, we already know that you were a fucking bear, and even in 2015, you were probably still whining that the BTC price might go to $100 or whatever, so you would have been failing and refusing to buy BTC during 2015, and even when the BTC price shot up to $500 in November, you would have been scared it was going to crash again, and the same is true in 2017 when it shot above $1,000, you would have been waiting for it to go back down below $500.  .. so don't be trying to act like you know (or would have known) the perfect investment strategy for the past 9 years, merely because I was presenting you with a hypothetical budget of $100 per week for 470 weeks.

I was largely trying to considering possible reasonable numbers that we could work with.  Previously I had considered someone who might be in their late 20s early 30s and with an income of somewhere between $30k and $40k.. but some of that might not matter so much either, if we might end up conceding a budget that averages out to allowing $100 per week to come available that could have been invested into Bitcoin or into some other investment on a weekly basis, so we are deciding what are we going to do with the $100 per week that is available.

But, here is a more pertinent number: with mining started in Nov 2019 and lasting until about March 2022.
2.3 btc mined with the average price of $18.17K/btc. Revenue about 41.8K
If, instead, you would have spend the exact same $$ (say, 42K) on DCA during the same time period, doing it on a weekly basis, then Excel gives me a weekly average for btc of $29.2K and, therefore, 1.43 BTC accumulated.
2.3 is >>1.43
btw, my previous assertions for averages were all based on weekly btc prices put into Excel (sorry, don't care about dcabtc website).
You can ask me: how come the btc mined price average is lower. It is because when you mine, you always mine more in the beginning and less later (due to difficulty increase).

TL;DR bulk purchase earlier wins (obviously), but don't neglect mining, especially if you start a new round when btc price is low and price of machines is low as well. Imho, peeeps should listen to what phil is saying about when is a good time to start mining and or purchase mining machines.

I don't know why you are trying to move the goal posts or to add some new activities.

Originally, your criticism of some of my perspectives was that a timed "buying in gulps" approach would be able to beat a DCA strategy, and I had not even been denying the truth of the assertion that it could beat it, but I have also been proclaiming that normies don't have time to be fucking around trying to figure out if the BTC price is going up or down and a variety of other factors, so in that regard, I was suggesting that the vast majority of normies are going to be better off to establish some kind of an approach in which they figure out their budget and attempt to be relatively aggressive with a combination of DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing.. with the main emphasis on DCA buying.. that allows them to be more assertive and aggressive because they are buying regularly, even though it could take a few years to solidly get into profits depending on when they entered and maybe some basic ways that they might be able to lower some of the costs per BTC.

Instead of working with some of the scenarios that we had already been discussing, you seem to want to overly complicate matters and now you want to talk about mining.

Fuck mining.

yeah guys can do it, but that surely is not a basic strategy, and you are overly complicating matters.

Another thing that I frequently say is to get the fuck started right away, even if that is ONLY buying $10 per week, and then if you figure out your budget and various other aspects of your finances and psychology (and even various aspects of bitcoin) you can become more aggressive and assertive after you figure out your own situation. so any kind of investment, whether bitcoin or otherwise needs to be tailored to personal circumstances, yet part of the reason to get so excited about bitcoin is because it presents a lot of opportunities that do not really seem to be have historically been available to normies, including being able to invest with small amounts such as $10 per week.. and other opportunties as well..

And you Biodom want to get distracted into capital intensive bullshit.. such as mining.. and even stocks and bonds have similar problems. in which sometimes there are issues in regards to who holds the assets.. and how do you get in, but surely some of those other ways of investing (in traditional ways) are having to become more easy and available to normies, otherwise bitcoin is going to even more quickly eat their lunches because bitcoin is actually available to all, even though there are some scary aspects of bitcoin and even learning curves in bitcoin too.. but surely much more empowering to try to figure out (and concentrate) on bitcoin rather than getting distracted into the kind of bullshit that you are talking about (how many dollars can I make  blah blah blah).  

By the way, the DCA of $100 per week since November 1, 2019 does give you about a $17k invested and nearly 0.89 BTC.  I use that cite for ease of just coming up with some numbers that sound right in terms of how much BTC might have been accumulated over time, and getting some ballpark ideas, and surely if we go over a longer period of time, the more likely we are able to see profitable numbers..  The cite is easy to reference and easy for various folks reading this thread to be able to play around with the numbers and timeframes contained therein.

So generally, a basic DCA approach would be set it and forget it for several years, but a more involved approach might include some buying on dips and some other possible strategies that we likely don't need to discuss at this time, especially since you are not even really seeming to want to work realistically with the issue that was presented in regards to having a 9 year investment time period and then comparing some straight forward ways of investing that might have been generally available to normies with something like a $100 per week budget that they would have available to invest into bitcoin (or perhaps investing it somewhere else - fuck mining.. that's overly complicating things.. and seems to be getting off topic - moving the goal posts).

I see fuck mining at least twice.

I say to you trade all your BTC for Meth.

BTC = Mining

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I see fuck mining at least twice.

I say to you trade all your BTC for Meth.

BTC = Mining

Did you read anything else in the post? Did you take it personally because you were trying to presume that the post is about something that it is not?

If you had not noticed, Biodom was adding a new topic.. If you read the post, maybe you would be able to understand some of the other words contained therein?

[Biodom]

@jjg...why so angry?

mining (starting when price is low and machines are cheap) beats dcaing hands down-as shown in my example.
bulk purchase does the same if you apply some brain power.

I don't really divide people into "normies' and , what, super-normies?
It is obvious to anyone than the earlier you bought, the better.
Going forward, I still submit that mining beats dca hands down (and provided the numbers to prove it).

Some people prefer investing in index funds and for majority it is better not to dart in and out of stocks, but some people (smaller %) can make more money in concentrated positions.
Same for bitcoin: dca is a valid strategy that is inferior for a smaller number of people and superior for most (but not all) people.
I, personally, found it (dca) tedious, but that's just me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg...why so angry?

Who said that I am angry?

I wrote my responsive post to you, and it should largely say what I had intended it to say.

mining (starting when price is low and machines are cheap) beats dcaing hands down-as shown in my example.

So now you are changing the scenario?  Normies should mine instead of DCAing and/or buying in gulps?

bulk purchase does the same if you apply some brain power.

I am not against buying in bulk purchases, but DCA is better.  Buying in bulk can be used as a supplement.

I wanted to get some response from you regarding how you would have done the last 9 years with buying in bulk rather than DCA.. give me your systematic approach that all normies should be able to understand..   and they should have started mining in November 2019?  right?

I don't really divide people into "normies' and , what, super-normies?

What is wrong with that?  I am trying to describe a generally applicable person.  Sure some folks have more skills than others, and everyone is capable of learning, but we still have less than 1% of the world's population in bitcoin, so it would not be very representative to consider normal people coming into bitcoin as if they are going to want to spend a lot of time studying the space.

It is obvious to anyone than the earlier you bought, the better.

Sure.. of course, but if you were whimpy about your buys because you were so busy waiting for dips that did not happen, then you may well have been better off to have a regular buying plan.

I am not even against holding back some of the $100 per week and maybe only buying $50 per week and saving the other $50 for buying on dips, but you seem to be suggesting buying way less frequently as if normal people are going to be able to figure out four year fractals or something like that.  Is that what you are ascribing to the talents and the inclinations of normal people?

Going forward, I still submit that mining beats dca hands down (and provided the numbers to prove it).

We were not talking about mining.

You want all normies to mine.. that is even less realistic than getting them simply to buy some and get the fuck off zero.. so all of a sudden they are supposed to jump into mining..  Are you in the same world?  Technical geeks want to mine and no problem with that, but you want aunt bessy to mine or billynocoiner's grandma to start mining when she is not bringing him cookies and milk? 

Some people prefer investing in index funds and for majority it is better not to dart in and out of stocks,

Yes.. I know.  You have been distracted ever since I got to know you in this thread.  We are talking about bitcoin and you are talking about diversifying, and that is part of the reason why you had failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately stock up on bitcoin... similar to philip.. to be in bitcoin for more than 11 years and hardly have any bitcoin.. sure maybe you are not as much distracted as him, but you guys both have similar inclinations in which you failed/refused to adequately stock up on bitcoin and ONLY recently become more bullish on bitcoin but still have your non bullish inclinations and thinking that bitcoin is not much different than any other asset class (treating bitcoin as if it were a mature asset class.. and failing/refusing to adequately sto/ack up).

but some people (smaller %) can make money money in concentrated positions.

Yeah.. of course, you do not need to invest a lot in bitcoin in order to benefit stupendously; however, those earlier adopters who were more aggressive have tended to have gotten rewarded much better (as long as they did not devolve into gambling and did not otherwise over extent themselves in the bitcoin accumulation matters).

Same for bitcoin: dca is a valid strategy that is inferior for a smaller number of people and superior for most (but not all) people.

DCA is amongst the best of strategies for a variety of reasons... so we can agree to disagree because I have made my points many times already.. and so this is just repeating... I asked you to flesh out some kind of a way in which you or anyone else would have bought over the last 9 years to beat DCA, and you refused to cooperate. I even suggested some reasonable ways that you could tweak the hypothetical, but instead you got diverted into mining and largely just proclaiming your punchline conclusion that buying in gulps is better blah blah.. and as we should have already been able to see, your mere assertion that it is better hardly seems helpful when you fail/refuse to discuss how to apply it to something like a $100 per week income or maybe you start out with both a lump sum and a $100 per week income so then once you apply your system then we can compare it towards DCA.. and let's see which is better... and actually part of my point (that I keep repeating) is that the person who invested $100 per week in a DCA manner is likely going to have ended up doing much better than someone who might try to figure out when to apply $5,200 that had built up during a year, and that lump sum buyer in gulps ends up being a whimp which is likely the case with you relatively speaking (are we comparing ourselves, perhaps?..

 and I am suggesting on a repetitive basis that you have been more whimpy over the years in terms of your bitcoin accumulation and your easily distractedness into other ways of "putting your money to work" and then when it comes to buy bitcoin, you don't have any money to buy because you got it locked up in some mediocre performing stock... .and you cannot make up your mind or actually to commit to bitcoin because you are TOO BIGGY of a SCAREDY KITTY.  Sucks to be uie pooie... but it is what it is, except you trying to justify that DCA is not as good as buying in bulk when you cannot even describe what the fuck buying in bulk is and if any normie were to try to employ your system, they would end up as a low coiner or a no coiner and regretting that they had not bought more earlier.

I, personally, found it (dca) tediously boring, but that's just me.

It's a way to get someone to commit right away.. whether it is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount, and they can still buy on dips or do whatever they like but the $100 per week (or whatever is the DCA  amount) is just a means to make sure that they are keeping on keeping on and after 4-10 years, they are likely to have gotten a good change of investing... rather than spending all their money and having nothing to show for it..

Now sure, there are guys like you who want to be more involved and blah blah blah, so go ahead and do it, but you are not normal, and should not be acting as if the vast majority of peeps would be able to regularly be paying attention to bitcoin and other possible investments.  Regular people have to get the fuck off of zero... and DCA strategies help to facilitate that and also helps to facilitate that they have structured a strategy that is workable for their budget and their psychology..   They are not going to watch the charts every day and they are not going to try to figure out how set up a miner.  So get a grip.. on what  are the inclinations of normies, which largely normies do not know what the fuck is bitcoin, they are afraid of bitcoin, they are mislead, so DCA'ing allow them to get in when they otherwise would not have.. they would have merely spent their $5,200 per year on a trip to florida once or twice a year instead of actually investing their $47k and having something to show for it after 9 years in which they could have.. and following your system, they will end up NOT doing shit.. and they will go on their vacation once they get $2,600 twice a year or $5,200 once a year.

[AverageGlabella]

Mining is vital to btc survival but a lot of people can not afford to mine btc. It is centralized because only the rich can afford to mine. If mining was cheaper I think we would see a lot more people buying mining equipment and starting to mine but because it is not and the difficult will probably only rise we could see that a lot of transactions in the future will be more expensive to send because the investment that the miners need to make to process transactions is going to get higher and they must justify the increased costs by increasing the transaction fees. I think this could hurt btc because no one likes paying fees at the best of times but paying excessive fees will drive people away from btc.

[Biodom]

@jjg...dude, it was all in my original post.
You were referring to a period from 2014 to now and my simple answer is this:

you are talking about investing (dcaing) $47K (nine years) during that period to accumulate 45 btc.
I did not invest anything close to that particular number, but if I take my investments (unevenly spread from 2014-2023) as X and calculate from there, then, in proportion, I got 113-114 BTC accumulated (surely, the actual number is completely different because 47K is a random number as well).
113 is a much bigger number than 45, is it not?
I don't profess an investment acumen, mostly it is due to bulk purchase earlier than later.

mining vs dcaing part is just a cherry on top.

TL;DR dca=average return, buying at the lows OR early (in bitcoin)=better return and if you think that you cannot put yourself to buying at the lows, then do some mining, for crying out loud.
People who bristle at mining have no clue about bitcoin. Bitcoin's heart is block validation via mining. Anything else, and it is NOT the same.

[HI-TEC99]

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-64546299

Google launches ChatGPT rival called Bard

Bard will be used by a group of testers before being rolled out to the public in the coming weeks, the firm said.

[Biodom]

Mining is vital to btc survivial but a lot of people can not afford to mine btc. It is centralized because only the rich can afford to mine.

Nobody said that you have to own a machine all by yourself, but, maybe, you should, if you can afford to spend $2000.
It is different around the world, but having $2K does not make you a rich person in OECD countries.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-64546299

Google launches ChatGPT rival called Bard

Bard will be used by a group of testers before being rolled out to the public in the coming weeks, the firm said.

Thanks, but I will stick with ChatGPT for now as we already have a bit too much goog-that and that in our lives.

[AverageGlabella]

I was wondering when Google would try to challenge chatgpt because Google has been the best search engine in years but more people are now using chatgpt to find out their answers but people like me who prefer to have privacy started using duckduckgo. We might be witnessing the fall of Google which I think a lot of us here would approve of.

[jojo69]

I was wondering when Google would try to challenge chatgpt because Google has been the best search engine in years but more people are now using chatgpt to find out their answers but people like me who prefer to have privacy started using duckduckgo. We might be witnessing the fall of Google which I think a lot of us here would approve of.

DuckDuckGo Isn’t as Private as You Think

DuckDuckGo faces backlash over its privacy policy exceptions

The free speech search engine that never was

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg...dude, it was all in my original post.
You were referring to 2014 to now and my simple answer is this:

you are talking about investing (dcaing) $47K (nine years) during that period to accumulate 45 btc.
I did not invest anything close to that particular number, but if I take my investments (unevenly spread from 2014-2023) as X and calculate from there, then, in proportion, I got 113-14 BTC accumulated (surely, the actual number is completely different because 47K is a random number as well).
113 is a much bigger number than 45, is it not?
I don't profess an investment acumen, mostly it is due to bulk purchase earlier than later.
People who bristle at mining have no clue about bitcoin. Bitcoin's heart is block validation via mining. Anything else, and it is NOT the same.

You still seem to be fighting the hypothetical... yet you are implying that whatever you did outperformed regular DCA by 150%... and if you are saying that you spent even less dollars, but you still accumulated 150% more BTC?  I am having difficulties believing that.. or how it might be applied to normies to be able to accomplish the same (a replicable model).  

Another thing, you know that the hypothetical does not allow you to spend more than $5,200 per year because you would not have it.. so if you are giving yourself a higher budget in the beginning, then the DCA would have similar abilities.

mining vs dcaing part is just a cherry on top.

Still not generally applicable.. just like AverageGlabella mentioned it is capital intensive.. but also there is a need to have time, skills and inclinations to do that... Saying to mine seems off topic, a distraction and moving the goal posts as I already mentioned.

TL;DR dca=average return, buying at the lows OR early (in bitcoin)=better return and if you think that you cannot put yourself to buying at the lows, then do some mining, for crying out loud.
People who bristle at mining have no clue about bitcoin. Bitcoin's heart is block validation via mining. Anything else, and it is NOT the same.

No one is saying that you will make a killing from DCAing.

In some sense, we may well be talking past each other.. because I am not even suggesting that anyone coming into bitcoin might not advance his/her skills and get to know himself/herself along the way in order to tailor his/her approach to how s/he invests into bitcoin.

To the extent that you are squirming around and changing the facts, it's like we are talking about two different kinds of people.  Frequently, I am referring to how any newbie might get into bitcoin and get off zero.. so where do you start?  You start by starting to buy a small amount on a regular basis and then figuring out your particulars, and so if you are able to get all your shit in order, then you can move onto more advanced approaches to BTC accumulation.

You have way more flexibility once you have accumulated BTC and your BTC are in profits... and the longer that you are in, you are going to tailor a whole bunch of techniques.. Where do you start?  How do you start accumulating BTC?  You say that you have to make an assessment and figure out when you are going to get in?  Is that what you are saying?

Another thing is that each person should be competing against himself/herself in terms of figuring out a BTC accumulation/investment strategy that works for him/her in terms of balancing financial and psychological matters.. and then figuring out investment targets, so starting out with a BTC accumulation target that might fall somewhere in the arena in which 1% to 25% would be allocated to bitcoin as compared to their whole investment portfolio would be a good start and the more aggressive would gravitate towards the higher end of the range and the less aggressive might just get somewhere in the lower end of the range to be happy with where they are at, but the devil is in the details regarding how they might apply the situation, and how long it might take them to go from zero% in bitcoin to their target amount...

I said for me it took a year to get to about a 10% allocation into bitcoin (between late 2013 and late 2014), but then in my second year I had gotten to about 13.5% (towards the end of 2015), which I considered to have had been about 3.5% overallocated.. even though I rolled with how the matter was playing out for me, and adjusted my BTC portfolio management strategies based on where I had gotten in comparison to where I had intended to get, so based upon such allocation that thereafter was affected by BTC price performance that mostly went up from there, I had to thereafter come up with BTC portfolio management strategies to figure out how to deal with my having had caused myself to have had become overallocated in BTC and to largely retain such ongoing overallocation.. which has been a personalized BTC portfolio dynamic that has continued to affect my bitcoin investment approach.. in terms of continuing to let the winners ride.. but at the same time feeling o.k. to shave off profits at almost any time too... but I surely am not expecting others to either start in the same position as me or to even be able to reach their target BTC accumulation levels in a similar short period of time as me.. even though surely there are people who end up allocating into bitcoin much quicker than me, so that could end up affecting them in positive or negative ways, in part based on if they end up in profits or not.. and if so how much in profits.. and then managing such profits, if they have them... or riding through the volatility if they are not in profits for relatively extended periods of time.

Nonetheless the vast majority of normies do not have lump sums that they can front load into any investment (BTC or otherwise), and that is part of the reasons why DCAing tends to work well for normies to build an investment position, and it may well take them 10 years or longer to build a decently sized investment portfolio, whether their investments pay off well or not, in the beginning years of their investment, they may still be building the amount that they are able to invest in order to have more options that come from having had built a larger investment portfolio.. which tends to take many years rather than just being available for most normies.