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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26390577 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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March 09, 2023, 05:15:52 PM
Last edit: March 09, 2023, 05:50:50 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

@jjg yes I am.

I am diverse but around 65% BTC

It may be worth while to attempt to flesh out some of these ideas in regards to overall investment portfolio allocations as compared/contrasted with BTC allocations a wee bit.

Surely in the past couple of years or so, there has been quite a bit of acknowledgement that the traditional portfolio of 60% to equities and the 40% to bonds has been quite a bit of a loser portfolio, especially recognizing that the bonds portion had been largely losing value, and so maybe some of the attention in regard to the losing nature of the bond allocation had been further triggered by the amount of attention that money printer go bbbuuuurrrr had been flaunted since March 2020d... .

So there has been quite a bit of negativity regarding how much bond performance had been drawing down the values of the whole portfolios that institutions were forced to maintain and individuals had been somewhat blindly following similar kinds of allocations.... so then there may have been concerns to attempt to reconfigure (reallocate) out of bonds, but then at the same time the movement of the Fed interest rates UPpity seem to have been designed to attempt to lure individuals back into having some of their value in bonds... even though the mandates of institutions had not really changed in terms of their having to keep some of their allocations in bonds.. even though maybe incentivizing some of them to end up to take higher levels of risk in other areas of their portfolios because of the recent (and even projected ongoing low performance of bonds)..

It seems that my historical investments (prior to bitcoin) were quite highly allocated in bonds, yet it seems that even by the time that I got into bitcoin, I had been gravitating more and more towards other forms of investments (and more and more willingness to take some risks with some of my investment/savings based on the principle continuing to grow), but then I tended to calculate the quasi-liquid portion of my investment portfolio a little bit differently, too (in terms of not necessarily ONLY giving value to liquid assets.. but attempting to calculate approximate values on all assets that I had available whether or not they could immediately be liquidated or whether they were generating current cashflows).. so in one of my posts from June 29, 2022, I try to show how my allocation to bitcoin had changed over the years.. but part of the reason for the changes in the allocation that increasingly became more and more weighted towards bitcoin was due to the relatively greater price appreciation of bitcoin compared to the other assets rather than my having had made any kinds of reallocation moves... My greatest reallocation moves largely came from my merely getting into bitcoin and coming off of zero (and aiming for 10% that evolved into something like 13.5%.. and while various traditional aspects of my overall portfolio remained relatively flat.. and maybe appreciated in value around 70% or so over 9 years, bitcoin became a way higher portion of my overall investment portfolio based mostly on its appreciation rather than my fucking around very much with any kind of meaningful reallocations.

And sure, in June 2022, I was around similar levels as what you (Phil) are asserting yourself to be right now.
..... and I am a bit lazy to update that chart to figure out the extent to which there is (or would be) much of any significant/material change between what my various allocations were in June 2022 as compared to what they are today.. so in that regard, maybe I am largely attempting to make the argument that in recent years.. maybe since 2016/2017 or so, I have not really been making much if any changes to the way that I had allocated (and not really engaging in reallocations), and surely not really anything to get very excited about.. because they BIGGEST of the allocations involve getting started (in bitcoin in late 2013 and thereafter for me) and establishing a position (same timeframe), then soon thereafter we might get into a kind of maintenance - however, I would conceded that it could take younger folks 10-20 years before they might get to a kind of maintenance stage, but I had done a large portion of my "getting to my maintenance" stage prior to getting into bitcoin (which was already more than 20 years), so by the time I got into bitcoin, I spent mostly a year establishing my BTC allocation.. and then had another year that may have ended up kind of dragging into two years of bolstering and buttressing such allocation.. perhaps based on some of my nervousness of just wanting to get as many BTC as I could during the earlier stages of my own BTC journey to establish a meaningful/significant position.
BobLawblaw
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March 09, 2023, 05:36:14 PM

The mempool is giving me terrible gas. My cats are horrified with me.
ChartBuddy
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March 09, 2023, 06:01:20 PM


Explanation
d_eddie
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March 09, 2023, 06:44:09 PM

Ouch. Ouch.
BobLawblaw
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March 09, 2023, 06:50:19 PM

Meanwhile... over on nostr...

Torque
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March 09, 2023, 06:56:21 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

When the whales mega short, they just love to follow up the FUD with a big dip below what they think are major psychological numbers.

Looks like they are gunning for sub $20k.

Joke's on them....long term HODLers are completely unaffected.  Wink

Also, get used to these big leveraged up and down barts pretty much all year long.

The only thing that matters is that we'll end up higher than where we started the year.

ChartBuddy
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March 09, 2023, 07:01:18 PM


Explanation
BobLawblaw
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March 09, 2023, 07:11:58 PM

Joke's on them....long term HODLers are completely unaffected.  Wink

<so_tiresome.gif>
Volgastallion
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March 09, 2023, 07:14:27 PM

I know its quite early but i thinked march can be a good month for BTC price, but seems like im totally wrong.

As always lets see the positive side, you can buy it cheaper.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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March 09, 2023, 07:34:18 PM


Cheesy this is what happens when you mining shitcoin (you can't afford to cover electricity bills and buy a vacuum cleaner)

there is sooo much dust that rig may of actually mined BTC back in the day, not alts.
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March 09, 2023, 07:34:59 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

the noon wall report

dyor

sleepy joe says more taxes
warmachiine goes brrrrrr
eagles beak slashes at soft elbow
jobs report out tomorrow

another day in the life of a hodler
carry on


4h


D

stronghands
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March 09, 2023, 07:52:46 PM
Last edit: September 10, 2023, 12:46:42 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

the noon wall report

dyor

sleepy joe says more taxes
warmachiine goes brrrrrr
eagles beak slashes at soft elbow
jobs report out tomorrow

another day in the life of a hodler
carry on


4h


D

stronghands

FYI if you're looking at clouds, given the Daily is bullish and Weekly remains bearish, the 3D has an interesting "neutral perspective" imo:



There's that bullish cross which looks good. Notably it's right at the 200 Day MA priced at $19.7K. Hopefully we don't get there til April tho, until after the bullish cross-over?

Also as it's first time since $50K and over a year since price has been above bullish formation, so looks quite relevant, as opposed to Daily flip flopping.

I ain't no cloud expert tho! Just thought I'd share this time-frame for a change as a usual in between of Daily bullish and Weekly bearish.
ChartBuddy
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March 09, 2023, 08:01:17 PM


Explanation
BobLawblaw
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March 09, 2023, 08:08:31 PM

xhomerx10
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March 09, 2023, 08:16:01 PM


Cheesy this is what happens when you mining shitcoin (you can't afford to cover electricity bills and buy a vacuum cleaner)

there is sooo much dust that rig may of actually mined BTC back in the day, not alts.

 Dust?!  That's some kind of alien invasion.
xhomerx10
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March 09, 2023, 08:22:33 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (3), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

I, xhomerx10, being of sound mind and body (well... I mean I'm still breathing), am formally submitting a complaint to the CEO of Bitcoin on account of too much downity and not enough uppity.
JayJuanGee
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March 09, 2023, 08:35:47 PM

[edited out]
Yeah one can never be exactly sure of a bottom… it doesn’t really matter if Bitcoin drops below 21,600 since I went all in at 17k$ Sold at around 24k$
Have a good day Jay

Wow.. you are trading this noise with decent amounts of your holdings? 

You must almost deserve a bat slappening for admitting to that...





Don't you realize/appreciate the power of the meme?








The lowest Bitcoin went after 2017 was in 2019 and it was on February 7, 2019, when the USD value was $3,384.91. If I am not correct then I apologize. Considering the present situation I do not think that Bitcoin will go down so much but ironically it is going down. I think it will hit the biggest low after 2019.

First of all.. we use Bitstamp here for our price references..   especially the kinds of "overall" claims that you seem to be making..

And the low would have been in about mid December 2018 in the ballpark of $3,124.... sure a minor difference in terms of the substantive price, but you are off also by around a month and a half.. .. and.... really the bottom in 2018.. lasted until about April 1, 2019.. and then we had a kind of mini bull run from around $4,200 on April 1, 2019 until around $13,880 around the very end of June 2019.

In regards to your expectation that the BTC price is going lower than $3,400-ish, what you be smoking?  How's that going to happen?

Do you even know what the fuck you are talking about?

Do you know bitcoin?  or you just talking some kind of a fantasy expectation?

First of all, you are saying that our current bottom is not in, which is $15,479.. from right around November 20, 2022.. we have to get down to those levels first and then thereafter go below that.  How's that going to happen?  What's going to cause it?  Do you have anything besides what you "hope" will happen?

BitcoinBunny
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March 09, 2023, 08:43:22 PM

There is only one place a government that wants to tax people's gains at 40% belongs and that is in a locked up dungeon.
Toxic2040
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March 09, 2023, 08:56:13 PM


FYI if you're looking at clouds, given the Daily is bullish and Weekly remains bearish, the 3D has an interesting "neutral perspective" imo:



There's that bullish cross which looks good. Notably it's right at the 200 Day MA priced at $19.7K. Hopefully we don't get there til April tho, until after the bullish cross-over?

Also as it's first time since $50K and over a year since price has been above bullish formation, so looks quite relevant, as opposed to Daily flip flopping.

I ain't no cloud expert tho! Just thought I'd share this time-frame for a change as a usual in between of Daily bullish and Weekly bearish.


+1 WOsMerit



me either  

...but

digging deep towards span B support levels with the lagging span testing span A
its into the trenches until Q3(its critical until Sept.?)at least with volatility remaining elevated imo
dyor
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March 09, 2023, 08:59:03 PM

There is only one place a government that wants to tax people's gains at 40% belongs and that is in a locked up dungeon.

It's only fair that IRS will issue capital loss tax credits with no $3,000 cap.
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