Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ted E. Bare]

It's happening!
Now you're happy or what?

[starmman]

Chinese New Year is coming, expect n-term wild moves http://zentrade.online/bitcoinusd-price-action-analysis-bitmex-perpetual-swap-xbtusd-update-20170127/

Thanks for the heads up - I'd forgotten about Chinese NY - I'll keep my eyes close to the screen over the next few days.

[r0ach]

It's happening!
Now you're happy or what?

I'll tell you what's happening, the act of betting a large amount of money on a fight and transferring funds from Coinbase and then having Coinbase threatening saying they're going to delete your account.  The 1984 state of cryptocurrency is here long before you expected it to be.

[abz99]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

[Cassius]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

I would be shocked if even one of these occurred.
SHOCKED I tell you.

Odds of all three together are pretty substantial.

[jaberwock]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

what is the relation between Marine Le Pen polling well in France and the price of Bitcoin?

I could understand Trump having some influence in the price, but France's economy is nothing close to US's one and I don't see any anti or pro Bitcoin stance coming from her party

also the US debt still is too big, will he be able to pass such bill in the next few weeks?

[starmman]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

I'd be happy if selling pressure continued for a bit longer as it will be good to acquire some cheaper BTC before the next surge...

[K~Ehleyr]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

what is the relation between Marine Le Pen polling well in France and the price of Bitcoin?

I could understand Trump having some influence in the price, but France's economy is nothing close to US's one and I don't see any anti or pro Bitcoin stance coming from her party

also the US debt still is too big, will he be able to pass such bill in the next few weeks?

Because Marine Le Pen is a hard-right anti-EU nationalist and her election would probably result in "Frexit" and thereafter the rapid implosion of the European Union and the end of the Euro currency.

[DaRude]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

Not seeing shorts crossing BTC25k on Aug 1st

[gentlemand]

what is the relation between Marine Le Pen polling well in France and the price of Bitcoin?

Hey, everything that happens is good for the price of Bitcoin. I myself have been discovering skid marks in my pants repeatedly recently. You're welcome to thank me for the price holding as well as it has.

[DaRude]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

I was not really so worried about whether DaRude was technically correct, only whether there was some kind of significance in the quantity of change that he was witnessing... and whether that quantity of shorts would be some factor that would influence our insights concerning probabilities of the price moving in one direction or another.

I do understand that it means that a lot of folks are appearing to be betting that the price is going down - but it does not necessarily mean that they are correct - but it does mean that we have had a significant amount of time in a price range that may cause some folks to believe that prices are going to be going down - even though they may not be going down..

Also, if the price went up to $950 or $990, would many other those shorts either be forced closed and sure some folks may chose to close them early or they may have taken certain stop loss measures... even at prices lower than $950.

Ultimately, these matters can be a bit complicated, but still some folks may bet on shorter ranges without really appreciating that the price had been suppressed for about 2 years.. and we are likely still in a bull market and still in the process of rebounding from nearly two years of bear market.  


Edit:  I just noticed the August 1, 2016 date that you mentioned  - and yeah, what a coincidence, one day before the supposed "hack"...

Well, those people that are betting are not doing it at BitFinex according to the pic below.

I see longs being more or less constant but shorts going up, are you seeing something else?

[ImI]

LePen hates Bitcoin. Her Party is a mixture of radical nationalism and socialism.

But anyway, she wont get elected. The french system is very well designed, using several votings until a one vs one situation the voters are actually able to do a ranking of their favorites. That means they are able to tell if x is not elected then i give my vote to y. That is really well designed system and leads to a situation where the left votes for a conservative candidate cause they dont want LePen.

[becoin]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February,

There is no selling pressure. There is continuous persistent buying pressure caused by new bitcoiners.

[AlexGR]

LePen hates Bitcoin.

If she leaves the Euro, then it doesn't matter whether she hates Bitcoin.

[K~Ehleyr]

But anyway, she wont get elected.

Normally I'd agree with you, but we said the same about Trump and Brexit.  Now, clearly, anything is possible, the world is changing.  I'm betting Merkel loses to the hard-right candidate too...

[JayJuanGee]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February,

There is no selling pressure. There is continuous persistent buying pressure caused by new bitcoiners.

Yep.

Some of these folks seem to be describing facts on the ground in a way that is contrary to what is actually happening.  Go figure!


Haven't they already picked up enough "cheap coins?"

[Elwar]

LePen hates Bitcoin. Her Party is a mixture of radical nationalism and socialism.

Nationalist Socialists...the last time they rose to power nothing but sunshine and lolipops spread across the world.

[600watt]

LePen hates Bitcoin. Her Party is a mixture of radical nationalism and socialism.

Nationalist Socialists...the last time they rose to power nothing but sunshine and lolipops spread across the world.

please be aware that the national socialists were mainly nationalists and fascists and did hunt socialists and put them into concentration camps and killed them. they hated socialism. the name is misleading. they were far right, not left at all.
well, to be more precise, there were actually socialist-like currents in the beginning of "the movement" - especially the SA under Röhm were leaning towards that direction. but hitler just used them to gain more momentum for his plans. guess what he did to röhm once he felt he did not need him anymore:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives

[Okurkabinladin]

Elwar,

since you just applied Goodwins law to this thread, in a way that is completely unrelated to wall observing BTC/USD tracking. I will just ask you to do us a favor.

Please, do not never ever breed.

[HI-TEC99]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

Not seeing shorts crossing BTC25k on Aug 1st

Can you post a link to where that chart came from please?