Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

I was not really so worried about whether DaRude was technically correct, only whether there was some kind of significance in the quantity of change that he was witnessing... and whether that quantity of shorts would be some factor that would influence our insights concerning probabilities of the price moving in one direction or another.

I do understand that it means that a lot of folks are appearing to be betting that the price is going down - but it does not necessarily mean that they are correct - but it does mean that we have had a significant amount of time in a price range that may cause some folks to believe that prices are going to be going down - even though they may not be going down..

Also, if the price went up to $950 or $990, would many other those shorts either be forced closed and sure some folks may chose to close them early or they may have taken certain stop loss measures... even at prices lower than $950.

Ultimately, these matters can be a bit complicated, but still some folks may bet on shorter ranges without really appreciating that the price had been suppressed for about 2 years.. and we are likely still in a bull market and still in the process of rebounding from nearly two years of bear market.  


Edit:  I just noticed the August 1, 2016 date that you mentioned  - and yeah, what a coincidence, one day before the supposed "hack"...

[r0ach]

Meanwhile, the Jews have banned white males from working at banks:

http://www.reddit.com/r/altright/comments/5q3rox/no_straight_while_males_allowed_at_bank_of/

While Trump resurrects Andrew Jackson:

http://www.reddit.com/r/altright/comments/5q5fz7/trump_hangs_portrait_of_andrew_jackson_in_oval/

[PoolMinor]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

I was not really so worried about whether DaRude was technically correct, only whether there was some kind of significance in the quantity of change that he was witnessing... and whether that quantity of shorts would be some factor that would influence our insights concerning probabilities of the price moving in one direction or another.

I do understand that it means that a lot of folks are appearing to be betting that the price is going down - but it does not necessarily mean that they are correct - but it does mean that we have had a significant amount of time in a price range that may cause some folks to believe that prices are going to be going down - even though they may not be going down..

Also, if the price went up to $950 or $990, would many other those shorts either be forced closed and sure some folks may chose to close them early or they may have taken certain stop loss measures... even at prices lower than $950.

Ultimately, these matters can be a bit complicated, but still some folks may bet on shorter ranges without really appreciating that the price had been suppressed for about 2 years.. and we are likely still in a bull market and still in the process of rebounding from nearly two years of bear market.  


Edit:  I just noticed the August 1, 2016 date that you mentioned  - and yeah, what a coincidence, one day before the supposed "hack"...

Well, those people that are betting are not doing it at BitFinex according to the pic below.

[Karartma1]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches? 

Noted that as well. Don't know, I'll wait at the window 

[JayJuanGee]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

I was not really so worried about whether DaRude was technically correct, only whether there was some kind of significance in the quantity of change that he was witnessing... and whether that quantity of shorts would be some factor that would influence our insights concerning probabilities of the price moving in one direction or another.

I do understand that it means that a lot of folks are appearing to be betting that the price is going down - but it does not necessarily mean that they are correct - but it does mean that we have had a significant amount of time in a price range that may cause some folks to believe that prices are going to be going down - even though they may not be going down..

Also, if the price went up to $950 or $990, would many other those shorts either be forced closed and sure some folks may chose to close them early or they may have taken certain stop loss measures... even at prices lower than $950.

Ultimately, these matters can be a bit complicated, but still some folks may bet on shorter ranges without really appreciating that the price had been suppressed for about 2 years.. and we are likely still in a bull market and still in the process of rebounding from nearly two years of bear market.  


Edit:  I just noticed the August 1, 2016 date that you mentioned  - and yeah, what a coincidence, one day before the supposed "hack"...

Well, those people that are betting are not doing it at BitFinex according to the pic below.



[http://i67.tinypic.com/2zz3zlv.png[/img]

Yes, I believe that I recognize what you seem to be suggesting, and that is that longs seem to considerably out number shorts, at least at the current moment and on that particular exchange (Bitfinex)... so the conclusion that DaRude made seems to NOT be based on real current data (at least not on Bitfinex).

[Kramerc]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches? 

I'm only eyeballing here but I think $ denominated shorts are at ATH, while long/short ratio is around all time low.

Shorts must be right, right? 

[Wolf Rainer]

This part of the forum is almost dead. Are all on hollydays or people went to another forum? I remember the chart guys and the "its happening" dudes.

[Hunyadi]

.....can you imagine the pump if all the different flavors of bitcoin devs got together with
a hybrid 2mb block/seq witness comprise of some such

IMO this will happen when the time is right 

[r0ach]

Will be interesting to see how this affects bitcoin should it occur:

Alex Jones claims Trump will release "hidden" DARPA technology:

https://youtu.be/IlzXhH9bwI8?t=1083

I think there is actually probably something to it, since it seems like numerous groups have published data in the past about being able to create 40-90% efficient solar energy collectors, yet here we are still sitting at 20%.

[PoolMinor]

This part of the forum is almost dead. Are all on hollydays or people went to another forum? I remember the chart guys and the "its happening" dudes.

Help yourself to a donut while you wait for the good people to show up.

[valta4065]

This part of the forum is almost dead. Are all on hollydays or people went to another forum? I remember the chart guys and the "its happening" dudes.

The chart guy was a bot no?
I remember when we had the hourly charts about btc moves and mempool.
Was fucking awesome. I don't know why they're dead :/

[abz99]

Chinese New Year is coming, expect n-term wild moves http://zentrade.online/bitcoinusd-price-action-analysis-bitmex-perpetual-swap-xbtusd-update-20170127/

[Ted E. Bare]

It's happening!
Now you're happy or what?

[starmman]

Chinese New Year is coming, expect n-term wild moves http://zentrade.online/bitcoinusd-price-action-analysis-bitmex-perpetual-swap-xbtusd-update-20170127/

Thanks for the heads up - I'd forgotten about Chinese NY - I'll keep my eyes close to the screen over the next few days.

[r0ach]

It's happening!
Now you're happy or what?

I'll tell you what's happening, the act of betting a large amount of money on a fight and transferring funds from Coinbase and then having Coinbase threatening saying they're going to delete your account.  The 1984 state of cryptocurrency is here long before you expected it to be.

[abz99]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

[Cassius]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

I would be shocked if even one of these occurred.
SHOCKED I tell you.

Odds of all three together are pretty substantial.

[jaberwock]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

what is the relation between Marine Le Pen polling well in France and the price of Bitcoin?

I could understand Trump having some influence in the price, but France's economy is nothing close to US's one and I don't see any anti or pro Bitcoin stance coming from her party

also the US debt still is too big, will he be able to pass such bill in the next few weeks?

[starmman]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

I'd be happy if selling pressure continued for a bit longer as it will be good to acquire some cheaper BTC before the next surge...

[K~Ehleyr]

According to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder & CEO, BitMEX

selling pressure will continue until mid-February, until if one of these three following black swan events transpire before the expiry of March 2017 futures:

   1. The PBOC aggressively devalues the Yuan

    2. Marine Le Pineapple Pen is polling well in French elections

    3. Trump passes a massive infrastructure spending bill

source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest Jan 27, 2017

what is the relation between Marine Le Pen polling well in France and the price of Bitcoin?

I could understand Trump having some influence in the price, but France's economy is nothing close to US's one and I don't see any anti or pro Bitcoin stance coming from her party

also the US debt still is too big, will he be able to pass such bill in the next few weeks?

Because Marine Le Pen is a hard-right anti-EU nationalist and her election would probably result in "Frexit" and thereafter the rapid implosion of the European Union and the end of the Euro currency.