Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Nosk]

From now on there are only resistances ahead. The first one starts about here. Personally I'm positive that the bottom is in.
If I'm right confidence should rise together with the price, and that may produce an upward avalanche.

For now the biggest resistance will be 7k € as, if you look à the chart  (cant link it I'm on my smartphone), it was the price just before the bullrun. I predict a few day of stagnation at this point and then extra bullishness if we go through it.

[realr0ach]

gosh that's a loaded question.
Is Blockstream's implementation of Lightning trustworthy?

Descartes says no.

[Last of the V8s]

@GammaticalError
50m50 minutes ago

No mention of $ETH, $XRP, $BCH, $IOTA, etc. Draghi is a #Bitcoin maximalist.

[nanobtc]

Maybe I'm stating the obvious but oscillating markets tend to favor a rebalancing strategy (bot or manual), for some reason rarely discussed in this thread (even if hinted at times).

In other words it doesn't really matter what happens to Bitcoin in the news, as long as the rate goes up or down, the only problem is when it goes sideways.

X years ago, I ran a balancing bot for Gox. It was a python script, that ran locally on my Linux box. You gave it a +/- percentage spread, and it would buy/sell, and re-figure the buy/sell orders constantly. I calculated my spread to be 2% above the exchange fees. It would try to maintain 50/50 $$$/btc. If it kept going in the same direction long enough you would eventually run out of $$$ or run out of btc.

I was never running any big money through it, but it was very reliable. My worst problems were rural/slow internet speeds, that would occasionally hiccup and be unable to keep up on a lot of rapid changes. It was a "try it, if it works, send me some btc".  It worked, I like it, I think I sent the author 2 btc. It was certainly worth it at the time, though the Gox implosion sort of ruined most of that.

[d_eddie]

From now on there are only resistances ahead. The first one starts about here. Personally I'm positive that the bottom is in.
If I'm right confidence should rise together with the price, and that may produce an upward avalanche.

For now the biggest resistance will be 7k € as, if you look à the chart  (cant link it I'm on my smartphone), it was the price just before the bullrun. I predict a few day of stagnation at this point and then extra bullishness if we go through it.

We're oscillating right around 7k€ indeed. If it breaks upward, there might be a nice weekend pump like the ones we had when Carolina was singing.

[svdleer]

https://ambcrypto.com/part-2-deeper-investigation-bitcoin-ethereum-markets-falling/

[conspirosphere.tk]

Maybe I'm stating the obvious but oscillating markets tend to favor a rebalancing strategy (bot or manual), for some reason rarely discussed in this thread (even if hinted at times).

In other words it doesn't really matter what happens to Bitcoin in the news, as long as the rate goes up or down, the only problem is when it goes sideways.

Bots add liquidity and they "eat" oscillations, so they help to keep the price a bit more stable, which is not bad. It's very likely that they helped much to find a floor during the last crash thanks to their lack of emotions.

But I guess that there are even "evil" bots used by manipulators to play their tricks.

[Torque]

Looks like $9k will be the resistance to break within the next week.

I guess if it doesn't, then another small dip back down followed by more sideways consolidation.

[ivomm]

[d_eddie]

Who the fuck partially fills a limit order for 0.1 BTC and then goes away again?

This has happened to me quite frequently.  You just  happen to have your order at the reversing point.  I think that it is good sign.

Sometimes the remaining portion fo the order does end up getting filled, but frequently when an order gets partially filled, I get a kind of feeling of how much of a "genius" I am in terms of my order placement... sometimes, I cancel the remaining and sometimes I will just leave it and see if it later gets filled.  If I leave it, then frequently, I will set a partial contrary order, just to cover myself on both and it becomes more fun, because I feel that I get an additional opportunity to make some extra money by setting another partial order on the other end and then just wait to see which one fills first.  That part is like a game, and fun and generally profitable, no matter what.

It happened to me too, and when it happens I feel like a genius too! I never set a partial contrary order though. Gotta try that, it must be fun playing wait and see which one fills first. Nice bit, JJG!

[d_eddie]

To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.

Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did.

Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K?  I didn't.

That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour.

[d_eddie]

Found the exact reference I mention in my previous post. Here it is.

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?

This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.

Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.

I think what d_eddie was quite reasonably asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not.

I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out.  To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom.  

I doubt anyone actually did.

Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.

Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did.

Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K?  I didn't.

That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour.

That depends on how much time and effort you are willing to expend, or alternatively money if you'd prefer hiring people.

The most accurate solution will be a well-balanced combination of multiple approaches, and the balancing act is something that can always be improved upon with new data. It's also very much possible to create fresh data from what you already know, which is to some extent what technical analysis does.

If you're not looking into algorithmic trading then your best bet is a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. If you're looking into algorithmic trading, you'll find no upper ceiling no matter how many resources you throw at the problem.

If you're manually trading you may want to consider trading on different time scales simultaneously (minutes/hours/days/weeks/months), both for better hedging and for accelerated self-improvement. There are also altcoins that are "negatively" correlated to BTC/USD (e.g. they do the opposite of what BTC/USD does), which can be used fairly easily to increase your stashes during periods of extreme volatility on any time scale.

[Last of the V8s]

@cryptocolic
Those drapes are ridiculous.

[Wekkel]

JOHn having a pre-$1M party with the boys?

[realr0ach]

Nice scam, guys.  No bid support on any exchange and then you click on Bitfinex and..."The Bitfinex Spoofer", the single entity that has controlled the bitcoin price since $200 by fraud, stealing all customer deposts and claiming they were hacked, and now printing infinite Tethers just like MtGox before it collapsed has these fraud walls - walls backed by nothing because they're Tethers:

[Last of the V8s]

JOHn having a pre-$1M party with the boys?

sorry not sure of photo exact context. https://twitter.com/coinsiglieri/status/961557119437852672
some wag posted it in conjuction with https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/961536186278871042
My team has created a White Paper production service. If you are planning an ICO and don't have the time or talent to produce the White Paper, then we can help. We can produce any part, or even the entire paper. Contact us at

[conspirosphere.tk]

Nice scam, guys.  

This finex thing is ridiculous.


https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/USD

[Karartma1]

I am holding my coins but I am not hodling onto this thread. I feel guilty but I can't keep up with its speed.
I found out that the merit system is actually good to scrool the pages and read only the "must read" posts.

Have fun

[Rsiyz]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2346992.msg23932789#msg23932789
this is still interesting. worth..