Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

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[JayJuanGee]

The good lord came knocking with a bag of riches months ago. I told him it wasn't enough so he left.

You been at church for the last month-ish?  

The good lord came knocking with a bag of riches months ago. I told him it wasn't enough so he left.

I might be in the same boat. I'll either retire early with lambos filled with hookers and blow, or I'll die as a Walmart greeter (having already died inside long before).

You might need some church?  

This is a bubble now, right?

A ponzi.

I get the sinking suspicion Wall St controls the price now. I'm probably wrong, but I can't shake it.

Hang out with Infofront a bit more; he might help you to shake a little .

[Wekkel]

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

Is this an anomaly? I cannot find any story about this on the Internet.

[Torque]

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

Is this an anomaly? I cannot find any story about this on the Internet.

Lol. And you won't. The MSM is not going to talk about this publicly because they don't want the public to know.

[600watt]

touching the ema200. (stamp/$/1d)

[Last of the V8s]

yan @bcrypt https://twitter.com/bcrypt/status/962024962402877441
lolol putting your airgapped machine in a faraday cage is not enough, you must also surround it with sheets of mu-metal

https://cyber.bgu.ac.il/advanced-cyber/airgap

"ODINI : Escaping Sensitive Data from Faraday-Caged, Air-Gapped Computers via Magnetic Fields"

http://www.compliance-club.com/archive/keitharmstrong/systems_installations4.html#4.5 relevant

paper not linked because ffs

Well that's it guys, they can get at our money however careful we are. We better just pack up, hand it all over to yan's handlers and stop being silly little boys with dreams of freedom and sovereignty.

Not. http://btcbase.org/log-search?q=mu+metal Since 2014

[Last of the V8s]

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

What is the significance of that indicator? Doesn't seem to have much $$$ in it even before the plunge?

[TERA2]

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.

Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull

[jojo69]

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

What is the significance of that indicator? Doesn't seem to have much $$$ in it even before the plunge?

As I recall, the collapse in inter-bank lending was one of the hallmarks of the '08 debacle.

[Last of the V8s]

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

What is the significance of that indicator? Doesn't seem to have much $$$ in it even before the plunge?

As I recall, the collapse in inter-bank lending was one of the hallmarks of the '08 debacle.

Yes sorry. I have now used the google. A butterfly flapping its wings sort of deal.

[d_eddie]

whalepool all in an uproar about some enormous short liquidation

10,340 BTC

Thunderous squishing sounds, at last.

[JayJuanGee]

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.

Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull

Do you really think that wall street is one step ahead of everyone and bought in at $1k? That's ridiculous.  

Some of wall street had only started to notice the existence of bitcoin after it went above $10k.. (coupled with some of the futures news) and bitcoin wasn't even on their radar before that (for a large number of them).  A lot of wall street is still very skittish about bitcoin, trying to figure out what it is, and considering that it's liquidity remains way too low for them to develop any kind of financial products around bitcoin...   Thus, seems early stages, early early stages, no?

You do seem to be describing in absolutist terms that bitcoin is closer to an early 2014 scenario rather than an early 2013 scenario, and you could end up being correct, but currently, I still would suggest that bitcoin is more closely in an early 2013 scenario.. maybe currently, I would place about 65% chance in favor of an early 2013 and 35% chance in favor of an early 2014 scenario.....

Many of us remain flexible in our projections about BTC's prices and direction and don't try to proclaim too many legs of price movements in advance, like some kind of divine sorcerer; therefore, if circumstances change, then I will adjust my thinking and perhaps, begin to believe that an early 2014 scenario would become more plausible based on facts and momentum, rather than mere speculative and hopeful proclamations.

By the way, if you had not noticed, you have been engaged in hopeful proclamations about bitcoin's supposed bubble ever since BTC prices went above $5k the first time in October, and I recall that you were proclaiming bubble even before that... and you been whining about BTC bubble ever since, which is nothing new.

Sure, recently, you have been proclaiming to be correct, now that BTC price finally came down - though that still does not make you a sorcerer, merely because you guessed the stopped clock correctly.  Actually, BTC prices have not even come down to your pissed off going above $5k levels, yet..   ... Hopium, Terabera, Hopium.

[JayJuanGee]

whalepool all in an uproar about some enormous short liquidation

10,340 BTC

Thunderous squishing sounds, at last.

A couple of questions..

1) If shorts get liquidated at these kinds of prices, that would likely mean that they were entered into in the below $7k territory, and if that much bear money gets liquidated,

2) if that quantity of shorts get's liquidated, wouldn't that provide a certain amount of lessening of the upwards BTC price resistance?

I am thinking that we cannot necessarily presume UP from this large liquidation, even though some bearwhales were likely reckt in the process, because other bearwhales could come in and profit through placing further shorts, perhaps?

[FartBuddy]

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

 I disagree.  I love pens.  Look at this one:

The Lighthouse of Alexandria



by Pelikan

You know today is gonna be exciting. When The Wall starts talking about pens.

 I'm excited.
4

Are they available at  penisland.com ?        (actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")

  No, that site redirects to a malicious site.   Anyway, the pen above is one of a limited edition run of 440.  It would be difficult to find and purchase.

I'm so disappointed. sirazimuth claimed penisland.com was an actual website that sold pens, but a snapshot from 2001 shows it was a porno website called penis land, not a respectable pen selling website called pen island.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010926155606/http://penisland.com:80/

[xhomerx10]

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

 I disagree.  I love pens.  Look at this one:

The Lighthouse of Alexandria



by Pelikan

You know today is gonna be exciting. When The Wall starts talking about pens.

 I'm excited.
4

Are they available at  penisland.com ?        (actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")

  No, that site redirects to a malicious site.   Anyway, the pen above is one of a limited edition run of 440.  It would be difficult to find and purchase.

I'm so disappointed. sirazimuth claimed penisland.com was an actual website that sold pens, but a snapshot from 2001 shows it was a porno website called penis land, not a respectable pen selling website called pen island.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010926155606/http://penisland.com:80/

 Ah ha!  Now we get to the heart of the maliciousness.

[FartBuddy]

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

 I disagree.  I love pens.  Look at this one:

The Lighthouse of Alexandria



by Pelikan

You know today is gonna be exciting. When The Wall starts talking about pens.

 I'm excited.
4

Are they available at  penisland.com ?        (actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")

  No, that site redirects to a malicious site.   Anyway, the pen above is one of a limited edition run of 440.  It would be difficult to find and purchase.

I'm so disappointed. sirazimuth claimed penisland.com was an actual website that sold pens, but a snapshot from 2001 shows it was a porno website called penis land, not a respectable pen selling website called pen island.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010926155606/http://penisland.com:80/

 Ah ha!  Now we get to the heart of the maliciousness.

The real deal pen selling website is called http://www.penisland.net/

[Wekkel]

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

What is the significance of that indicator? Doesn't seem to have much $$$ in it even before the plunge?

As I recall, the collapse in inter-bank lending was one of the hallmarks of the '08 debacle.

That’s why I would have expected an article about it at ZeroHedge (but I am a day or two behind in my RSS feed).

[Sitarow]

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.

Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull

To gauge the bottom I use the miners profitability vs return on new hardware. Additionally miners are hardcore into bitcoin and crypto and they are first to reinvest in bitcoin by buying up asic hardware. If it proves profitable to buy btc vs buying hardware they will.

Simply see the cost return comparison.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit#gid=1194614223

Here is an example that also includes the last two years of network difficulty as an average.

Here is the Antminer S9 13.5TH Return at 9,500.00 USD to BTC

https://i.imgur.com/bDhEa5r.png

Here is the Antminer S9 13.5TH Return at 15,000.00 USD to BTC

https://i.imgur.com/J41nWjy.png


Here is the Avalon 821 11TH if the price was at 15,000.00.


https://i.imgur.com/L7MGVjV.png


UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.                                 
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations                                  
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)                                  

[bones261]

whalepool all in an uproar about some enormous short liquidation

10,340 BTC

Thunderous squishing sounds, at last.

A couple of questions..

1) If shorts get liquidated at these kinds of prices, that would likely mean that they were entered into in the below $7k territory, and if that much bear money gets liquidated,

2) if that quantity of shorts get's liquidated, wouldn't that provide a certain amount of lessening of the upwards BTC price resistance?

I am thinking that we cannot necessarily presume UP from this large liquidation, even though some bearwhales were likely reckt in the process, because other bearwhales could come in and profit through placing further shorts, perhaps?

When a short gets liquidated (or even when it gets closed voluntarily by the trader), the person who shorts has to buy bitcoins to pay back the margin. So over 10000 BTC should have some kind of immediate effect. Although how long it lasts is another story. At least that is how it would work at Bitfinex. If it happened at Bitmex, that would not be the case because that is really a derivatives type market, from my understanding. If it was CBOE or CME, those are really cash settled and do not involve the trading of real bitcoins, so the effect would be minimal. I am not sure how OKCOIN, Kraken or the other exchanges that offer margin trading work. What exchange did this happen on?

[Toxic2040]

UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

This is some great information...thank you for sharing and the time you have invested in creating it.

+10 WOsMerits

This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.                                 
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations                                  
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)                                  

Still puked a bit in my mouth seeing legalize tacked on the end...even tho its smart to CYA.