Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[thezerg]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

Prediction: 4-5 months from now, there will be at least a dozen new exchanges, most averaging about 1,000 daily volume. This "fracturing" of volume will ultimately result in lots of smaller and consequently more easily manipulable exchanges. Gox will still maintain the lead with 5,000 daily volume on the very busiest days. But, Gox too will be primed for manipulation given lower volume and depth.  

Prediction 2: 1 year from now, after enough reports of manipulation and investors getting ripped off, the SEC steps in and requires exchanges to monitor and put in place restrictions to stop blatant manipulation (or at least make it much more difficult/risky). Bitcoin gradually drops in value to almost nothing as the community realizes the price is and always has been driven by whale-walls.

I am tired of your bs. You are a real ray of sunshine and consistenty wrong. Do you ever grow tired of posting your negative garbage in this forum? Get out of your basement and talk to real people, try to develop positive relationships. You will be a much happier person in the long run. Welcome to ignore (my first).

I shouldn't feed the trolls. My bad.

You don't understand. This is massively bullish... only way BTC volumes could be that low is if the price was extremely high! 

[thezerg]

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay.  How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?

Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.

People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down.  Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.

Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price.  I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.

(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)

That's my guess; the whale(s) are buying about a million $ a week.  That's probably all that they trust on Gox at one time.  The pullback on Gox is pretty natural after the kind of runup we've seen, OR maybe it is just that arbitrage is finally happening.  This whale put up that wall at 135 because that was his average buy in price.  He put it near the money.  HE WANTED it to be eaten.  He WANTS coins. 

The whale is NOT supporting the price during the week.  He is happy to disappear for a week and hope the price goes down.  This is the behavior of a real long term investor...

Right now, I think it is very risky to sell.  But at the same time, there's lots of coins being mined and in theory these ASIC owners need to sell to recoup their investment.  There may be a large hidden ask at this price and this whale is only eating half the generated coins per week... but of course there are a lot of smaller investors adding demand.

[ChartBuddy]

[derpinheimer]

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay.  How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?

Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.

People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down.  Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.

Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price.  I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.

(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)

That's my guess; the whale(s) are buying about a million $ a week.  That's probably all that they trust on Gox at one time.  The pullback on Gox is pretty natural after the kind of runup we've seen, OR maybe it is just that arbitrage is finally happening.  This whale put up that wall at 135 because that was his average buy in price.  He put it near the money.  HE WANTED it to be eaten.  He WANTS coins. 

The whale is NOT supporting the price during the week.  He is happy to disappear for a week and hope the price goes down.  This is the behavior of a real long term investor...

Right now, I think it is very risky to sell.  But at the same time, there's lots of coins being mined and in theory these ASIC owners need to sell to recoup their investment.  There may be a large hidden ask at this price and this whale is only eating half the generated coins per week... but of course there are a lot of smaller investors adding demand.

What do you mean 135 was his average price? It wasnt. It was more like 132. A bid wall at the top of your market order, when moving the price that much, doesnt make sense. Doesnt mean it was manipulated or anything, just that he would have gotten sold into at 134, 133, and probably even 130.

[coolbeans94]

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.    We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait...   I'm sure it will happen again.

[chriswilmer]

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.    We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait...   I'm sure it will happen again.

Yeah, the "time bomb" model of bitcoin is the one I subscribe too.

[ChartBuddy]

[byronbb]

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.    We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait...   I'm sure it will happen again.

Yeah, the "time bomb" model of bitcoin is the one I subscribe too.

That's why I laugh at the bears. Bitcoin as concept is only becoming more and more mature, the technology is incredible and the pace at which it has matured so quickly with ASIC is incredible. If bitcoin goes 20 years it will have impacts on POWER technology.

[derpinheimer]

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.    We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait...   I'm sure it will happen again.

You're a little confused if you think 20 mill would take the price over 1000.

Our friendly whale who put in about 4 mill brought the price up from $1XX to $148.90. And thats with a few more million from other people. So, 8 mill -> $40

But 20 mill [and lets say, 40 mill] -> +900? Dont think so.

Of course if your friend grandma is braindead and clicks market order 20millUSD, then yes, around 10kUSD/BTC spike.

There must be a reason most mega-wealthy people have bothered to put a couple million into bitcoin.

[byronbb]

Gox Bitstamp spread at $11....but btc-e close with stamp which is unusual.

[ChartBuddy]

[coolbeans94]

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.    We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait...   I'm sure it will happen again.

You're a little confused if you think 20 mill would take the price over 1000.

Our friendly whale who put in about 4 mill brought the price up from $1XX to $148.90. And thats with a few more million from other people. So, 8 mill -> $40

But 20 mill [and lets say, 40 mill] -> +900? Dont think so.

Of course if your friend grandma is braindead and clicks market order 20millUSD, then yes, around 10kUSD/BTC spike.

There must be a reason most mega-wealthy people have bothered to put a couple million into bitcoin.

LOL yeah! Well the people I know are of the kind of personality that would so something like that (buy $20 mil market order) just to see the affect and have fun with it haha. I'm sure they'd get a good laugh about it. Although she is the kind of person who has her assets in money markets and stuff, and is not so risk averse, so it might not happen anytime soon until she passes away or something and the inheritance is passed on to her children/grandchildren.

[ChartBuddy]

[coolbeans94]

I am seeing a repeat of last year; And I doubt we will ever see prices around 50 again. I'd say we are on track to see 200 sometime in November.

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[wonkytonky]

I am seeing a repeat of last year; And I doubt we will ever see prices around 50 again. I'd say we are on track to see 200 sometime in November.

when there's a bit too much bullish sentiment around..  i get this urge to start selling

[ChartBuddy]

[prophetx]

I am seeing a repeat of last year; And I doubt we will ever see prices around 50 again. I'd say we are on track to see 200 sometime in November.

when there's a bit too much bullish sentiment around..  i get this urge to start selling

we ain't hitting 200 by end of year