Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bluebits]

You should plot 2011 on there too

Theory: As the market grows in absolute value the time needed for the bear market process increases. This is due to the much larger number of players and money in each subsequent cycle. As an easy thought experiment, BTC can crash and blow up in just weeks if only a few hundred people are speculating in it. On the other extreme, if BTC is owned by everyone, the cycles would match economic ones with major changes taking decades or more to work through.

Application: 2018 crash will take longer than the prior 2 cycles and (excepting total BTC failure) will not be as severe in total loss percentage. This would predict a bottom around late 2019 in the 3k range.

Current Trade: To match the predicted timescale and magnitude it is likely we need another glade (3.0) to take it back to 8k+. This will take up another 2+ months, setting up the stage for a fall to fake bottom #2 (4.5k area). A few bounces off this area and then a final fall into the 3ks. From here it can bounce and slowly bleedout out as pessimism reaches a peak.

External Events: ICO failure and enforcement, continued regulation and exchange failure, and most of all the coming next business cycle global recession would set up things for several years in the early 20's of bottomed out prices. This would be the time to find promising alts using new technology.

[1714132349]

1714132349

[1714132349]

1714132349

[1714132349]

1714132349

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Yes I'm'a shillin for fifteen centos, so mucho moneyo.

You are pathetic and beneath my contempt.

First.  thanks for the admission that you are shilling (similar to trolling, no?)

Second.  I feel so devalued by falling even below your level of contempt because I am not valued by you, I feel sad and lost.. sad and lost.


Like this one:

[regent4]

Hourly
https://i.imgur.com/IOXSoKH.png

Daily
https://i.imgur.com/bBlZExZ.png

analysis

http://blockchainshowdown.blogspot.com/2018/07/btc-usd-2nd-july-2018.html

[babanana]

This is the reality.

1. Those with decent amount of BTC are just chill, quiet and observing. Not even saying anything bad against other alts.
2. Those with few to none are hyped and shill and calling names, predicting doom. They say BTC is root of all evil.

But in truth they are hoping to have more. And when they do, they become number 1.
Lets be patient with these shills.  

[sirazimuth]

This thread is numpty today. What happened? All the sane people took the weekend off?

I was busy researching Bigfoot and alien abductions.... shit is real man....

[Raja_MBZ]

Coming up next:

[Icygreen]

Whats wrong with conspiracy?  Some things should absolutely be questioned until the truth is in a majority consensus.

[windjc]

You should plot 2011 on there too

Theory: As the market grows in absolute value the time needed for the bear market process increases. This is due to the much larger number of players and money in each subsequent cycle. As an easy thought experiment, BTC can crash and blow up in just weeks if only a few hundred people are speculating in it. On the other extreme, if BTC is owned by everyone, the cycles would match economic ones with major changes taking decades or more to work through.

Application: 2018 crash will take longer than the prior 2 cycles and (excepting total BTC failure) will not be as severe in total loss percentage. This would predict a bottom around late 2019 in the 3k range.

Current Trade: To match the predicted timescale and magnitude it is likely we need another glade (3.0) to take it back to 8k+. This will take up another 2+ months, setting up the stage for a fall to fake bottom #2 (4.5k area). A few bounces off this area and then a final fall into the 3ks. From here it can bounce and slowly bleedout out as pessimism reaches a peak.

External Events: ICO failure and enforcement, continued regulation and exchange failure, and most of all the coming next business cycle global recession would set up things for several years in the early 20's of bottomed out prices. This would be the time to find promising alts using new technology.

$3000 is the new $99. Everyone and their grandmother expects us to go there.

I don't. So there.

[Rosewater Foundation]

I'm also going to go out on a limb here. If I had more of a cushion I might be inclined to BTFD. I know what you're thinking. Rosewater, that's crazy talk. But 12 hours of astroturfing leads me to believe someone in the know is sponsoring it. I think (call me crazy) that maybe we have a moonshot incoming and someone somewhere is trying to shake us old degenerates loose.

I know what you're thinking. Rosewater, that's crazy talk. Maybe. But none of this is new to any of us.

[Elwar]

Whats wrong with conspiracy?  Some things should absolutely be questioned until the truth is in a majority consensus.

It is when the majority is in consensus that I start questioning things.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Elwar, that's crazy talk. Get in line this instant.

[Rosewater Foundation]

This is where the fat hits the fire, folks. Here we go. Don't kid yourself.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Open the doors. Arrange yourself. Be still before the heath of Time.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Hear the clack of sacred stones.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Hear the rhythmic throat-songs of upheaval, the rush of civilizations; remember the foot-falls on earthenware and bone, the blood-oaths, the lament of banished scribes. Sit. The threads of an ancient tapestry hang before you. Pull one.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Listen.

We are churning our way through the mystical under-rivers of the world. I call to you from the very belowdecks. Do you dare answer? 

[Rosewater Foundation]

Have you understood the booming seas much? Prick up your ears.

[jojo69]

drink plenty of water mayor...you're getting too old for this

[mymenace]

..."in this context the value of btc is equal to ∞ because the pedodollars the currency of the predatory parasitic oligarchic (Central Cabal Bankers) pedophile imperialist americans British (Mr King George - No Nicholas I will not help you) and their western allies (Five eyes intelligence) is worth nothing"....

Just to help clear up the who the actors are
Why bitcoin was made, read history on above actors  
I have never seen a statement above that shows exactly who is in control of the world.  

near the event horizon, specially  .

C17H21NO4 and C21H30O2

please don't fall in the abortion debate, it is just a trap.

focus on counting the bodies of our enemies. seth rich dead. aaron schwarz dead.

who is jon corzine fucking?

I agree, let's watch the charts... don't forget where the pedobucks get it's illusion... and when this fall...
(everybody should be paying attention)

look at me, beyond the horizont  

very important

Will admit anonymint concerned me re: Segwit addresses. I’ve looked through every single address that I have coins in though & they all start with a 1 so fuck it - as you were

Segwit activated a thousand years ago. Were you concerned then? Or did you just catch this recently? Because it's being spread like a virus. Just trying to be clear.

..."Because it's being spread like a virus"....
Extremely clear
thank you

With all this talk of attacks on the blockchain, looks like one event could be pulled off;

Global segwit attack

[hv_]

You should plot 2011 on there too

Theory: As the market grows in absolute value the time needed for the bear market process increases. This is due to the much larger number of players and money in each subsequent cycle. As an easy thought experiment, BTC can crash and blow up in just weeks if only a few hundred people are speculating in it. On the other extreme, if BTC is owned by everyone, the cycles would match economic ones with major changes taking decades or more to work through.

Application: 2018 crash will take longer than the prior 2 cycles and (excepting total BTC failure) will not be as severe in total loss percentage. This would predict a bottom around late 2019 in the 3k range.

Current Trade: To match the predicted timescale and magnitude it is likely we need another glade (3.0) to take it back to 8k+. This will take up another 2+ months, setting up the stage for a fall to fake bottom #2 (4.5k area). A few bounces off this area and then a final fall into the 3ks. From here it can bounce and slowly bleedout out as pessimism reaches a peak.

External Events: ICO failure and enforcement, continued regulation and exchange failure, and most of all the coming next business cycle global recession would set up things for several years in the early 20's of bottomed out prices. This would be the time to find promising alts using new technology.

$3000 is the new $99. Everyone and their grandmother expects us to go there.

I don't. So there.

Very nice comparison

but

2011 - Markets where not very liquid - highest volatile and not accountable

2013 - We had first China crack down and MtGox desaster

Now: If we go down that high (comp to 2011 / 13)  - with many of those parameters improved or not existent -> REKT