Good morning Bitcoinland.
I see we had a bit of a dip, all the way down to where we were over a week ago...$6393USD/$8390CAD (Bitcoinaverage).
Why does this always seem (lately) to happen when I'm short on cash to buy more coins?
I can't bitch though. It's only money and I'm not impoverished quite yet.
maybe it doesn't go down to 3xxx levels after all
That 3xxx nonsense is just wishful thinking by people who missed the boat (or panic sold at the bottom) and desperately want the price to go down.
That 3xxx nonsense is something that you just can't dismiss outright. Sure we all want the price to go over the moon. Possibly even higher. But there's no denying we're in a strong bear market right now. There's every chance that it will go down.
Well, ofcourse I'm wishing it to dip to 3xxx levels to get some cheap coins, but I'll buy some more anyways whatever the price. And I'm too scared to sell anything in this market, just buying.
It does not hurt to sell a bit, depending on how the matter plays out.
For example: Let's use some round numbers and say that you have about 10 Bitcoins in your stash, and you have about $6,300. You also might have a bit of a cash flow of $200 per month extra that you can put into your bitcoin fiat stash.
In this case, when the price went down to $5,800, you may have bought somewhere between $500 and $1,000, which might be a reasonable and suitable purchase based on your total holdings. Therefore when the price goes up, you might decide to sell in increments of $500 or something like that - selling $50 or $100 at $6,500, $7k, $7,500, $8k - and with the amount that you bought and the hypothetical increments that I provided you would be able to sell in 10 increments, which would take your sales up to $11,500 - before you would run out of money from that one purchase... And, don't tell me that you will not have opportunities to buy some of that back again between here and $11,500.
Of course, you can employ some other variation of such an incrementalist plan and still be able to reasonably 1) sell some small amounts of BTC at these prices, 2) to prepare yourself to buy (if the price falls between here and $11,500), which seems quite likely) and 3) because of your already existing stash also keeping yourself prepared for further upside BTC prices, if they happen by shooting beyond $11,500 (which is a real pie in the sky scenario because one of the most certainties in bitcoin is that we are likely to experience quite a few corrections along the way, even when we are experiencing an exponential up period).
Edit: Added response to Hueristic.
maybe it doesn't go down to 3xxx levels after all
That 3xxx nonsense is just wishful thinking by people who missed the boat (or panic sold at the bottom) and desperately want the price to go down.
That 3xxx nonsense is something that you just can't dismiss outright. Sure we all want the price to go over the moon. Possibly even higher. But there's no denying we're in a strong bear market right now. There's every chance that it will go down.
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Well, ofcourse I'm wishing it to dip to 3xxx levels to get some cheap coins, but I'll buy some more anyways whatever the price. And I'm too scared to sell anything in this market, just buying.
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Yes, I made that mistake once and never again. Of course after you miss out on 500X profit you missed the train and it ain't never coming back.
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Even in bitcoin, it has tended to take a long fucking time for 500x profits to play out, so if you are into bitcoin and you attempt to accumulate, even if you screw up a lot, you still should be able to get a decent amount of that 500x increases, if you error on the side of largely holding and attempting to accumulate in reasonable (rather than gambling) ways.
Even, since I have been in Bitcoin (which is since late 2013), the best case scenarios are buying around $150 and selling $19,666 (which would be around 130x), and of course you could trade BTC to bring your ratio up, but I just don't think that it is practical to expect average folks to be able to get that high in their returns or even engaging in a kind of pure purchasing and selling at the top and bottom would result in such an average of 130x, which does not seem realistic, even if it could happen in outlying cases.
Even having an overall return rate of 10x in this current market seems like a good play.. which would be average costs per BTC around $630 when the current price is $6,300 - but even if your costs are above $1,000, you might consider yourself as in a very decent place, right now.
From here, another 10x, would put prices at $63k and 100x would be at $630k, and neither of those are unreasonable, even though it could take 1 year to 10 years to play out.. perhaps 1 year, just to break into the range - even though it is also possible (but seeming quite unlikely, currently) that BTC could break into new ATHs by this calendar year.
I guess that part of my point is that there are few BTC folks sitting in 500x profits, and striving for such may be a bit unrealistic, because there are quite a few ways to plan your entry points into BTC while providing yourself with decent chances to retain and maintain a BTC portfolio that is quite a bit more good chances of profitable than many other investments (perhaps even the vast majority of other possible investments)
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