Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[stelee68]

The next bull cycle is coming?

I am quite sure this is the signal we have been waiting for...

BTC To the moon!

[1713554324]

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[ivomm]

This guy must be 100% sure that BTC will surpass $280K in 2023 to bet $6.3 mil. 
https://www.etftrends.com/crypto-trader-big-on-bitcoin-exceeds-warren-buffett-berkshire-price

[josephpogi]

Hold on! bear months is more exciting

[Anon136]

This guy must be 100% sure that BTC will surpass $280K in 2023 to bet $6.3 mil.  
https://www.etftrends.com/crypto-trader-big-on-bitcoin-exceeds-warren-buffett-berkshire-price

Not a bad bet I think. But that counterparty risk . Trusting someone to actually pay out 1.2 billion, that's more trust than I have in anyone.

[cAPSLOCK]

^unrelatedly: Have fun while making those private keys secure!



https://www.etsy.com/listing/614770978/d20-twerk-o-matic-booty-dice-butt-plug (via @shinohai)

Oh lord.  You are gonna have Bob dressed up as a wizard with a dungeons and dragons campaign going with that kind of post...

[Anon136]

^unrelatedly: Have fun while making those private keys secure!

https://www.etsy.com/listing/614770978/d20-twerk-o-matic-booty-dice-butt-plug (via @shinohai)

Oh lord.  You are gonna have Bob dressed up as a wizard with a dungeons and dragons campaign going with that kind of post...

Jesus man. What is wrong with you?

[cAPSLOCK]

^unrelatedly: Have fun while making those private keys secure!

https://www.etsy.com/listing/614770978/d20-twerk-o-matic-booty-dice-butt-plug (via @shinohai)

Oh lord.  You are gonna have Bob dressed up as a wizard with a dungeons and dragons campaign going with that kind of post...

Jesus man. What is wrong with you?

Top problem at the moment?  Or the top 10 list?

[kaushiks093]

As times change, your methods may need to change, too.

[jbreher]

And if that each person wanted to make just 32 transactions to different people bcash would need 30yrs to process that. Think about that!

I have thought about that. Today, that is indeed the case. Or even maybe longer - as 32MB is the currently supported max, which is subject to miners' decisions to create blocks smaller than max.

Which is, of course, why there has been discussion within the BCH development community -- for as long as there has been a BCH -- on other orthogonal approaches to scaling.

So while true today, it will be false for some value of 'tomorrow'.

In the meantime, BCH is not suiciding itself for the sake of some illusory benefit of 'decentralization' along some axis that is entirely irrelevant.

Orthogonal?

Yes. Do you understand the term? In this case, meaning scaling in a manner unrelated to the max block size.

You mean like side chains!

Sidechainy things are within the universe of things being discussed, though certainly not exclusively, nor even leadingly.

WTF that wasn't in Satoshi's white paper!!!

Point?

Wait so you're saying that different solutions might come in the future so time and resources are better spent on near term issues

In a manner of speaking, yes. Time tested engineering principles focus on the bang-for-the-buck solutions. Always.

However, it is not 'might come'. We know of several scaling solutions orthogonal to increasing the max block size. The discussions underway are focused upon cost/benefit analysis. Or alternately risk/benefit analysis. You know - the essence of engineering.

[xhomerx10]

As times change, your methods may need to change, too.

  I think we ate at the same restaurant today!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

yeah, I agree, just in this instance..just seeing the old ETF supposed, maybe happening, and then does not happen...usual reversal

what is the reason it pops up NOW, besides my 'paranoia'?  Not seeing much, but the 'supposed' ETF angle

than again, wtf do I know...just saying, what came to mind on the current pump

O.k.  Let's attempt to isolate reasons and to play a hypothetical. 

Let's hypothetically say that the ETF is having some kind of effect on the BTC price currently, if so, we could still have a buy on the rumor and sell on the news situation.  Sometimes just the idea of something bullish happening could cause a pump  in a time period that is quite a bit before the official announcement, and then when the thing actually hits, whether yes or no, then the opposite effect could happen (a dump, even with positive news, although positive news would likely cause a longer term financialization and therefore pump upon the BTC price).

On the other hand, the hypothetical is all wrong - because a large amount of the time, there are several factors that affect the price, including supply and demand issues across 100s of liquidation mechanisms, including dynamics with alts.  We also have momentum and manipulation, too.... So, sure we can play with hypotheticals that attempt to narrow down the reasons for a pump or a dump and maybe even we can list out five things that are going on that have an effect on the price in one direction or another, yet I still maintain my position that we do not necessarily benefit from putting too much effort on attempting be conclusive about the direction one way or another, because as soon as we do, then we are likely to get surprised in the other direction.   

Take margin positions for example, and I have seen a post from today saying that everything is lining up for long, including long positions, but as soon as a bunch of longs line up with margin, there will be some whale(s) who believe its to their advantage to force them to close (by pushing the price down)

I would rather this just be a coincidence and part of the general fatigue and pump back to what I think are reasonable above 10k prices

but if wishes were fishes...we'd all take a swim...

(wanders off mumbling to self..have a hard enough time with 'current' reality....add magical internet money on top of that mess and I'm

more than a bit befuddled...)

I do agree with you that if you can pinpoint the reason(s), then you can figure out a little bit what you are going to do, and what kind of tentative timeline to give your plan.   On the other hand, you can still make a plan for what the price actually does rather than needing some kind of reason(s) for it.  So in that regard, if the price goes up, then you make play x, and if prices go down you make plan y.. also you could have a plan to cash out.. certain percentage(s) of your stash for every certain amount of time period (that is also not dependent upon reasons).  So if your overall plan was to cash out 3% per year, then instead you might choose to cash out .25% per month (which is 1/12) of 3%.. or some variation that does not depend on any explanation for why BTC prices are doing A, B or C.

[ToTheMoon_XOM9IK]

6800

[JayJuanGee]

Are you assuming that we need "one last BIG correction"? 

I'm not assuming that much, but that's what my gut tells me through... well, that's advanced SOMA stuff 

Fair enough, and really in sum it sounds as if you have quite a bit stronger view about the probability of down than I do, but in the end, on a personal preparation level (financially and psychologically) I don't really care that much about whether we have additional down.  Sure, I profit more with UPwards price movements, but like we discussed several times, we have to attempt to figure out ways to set our orders in such a way that we can get some advantage(s) from any price movement that happens.

I'm glad I followed my gut by shorting. I managed to stash some away and with this little climb I'm still well in the green even with the play money I left on the table.

I agree that it is a good thing for you, and it is a good thing that you found a plan that you were able to tailor to your own comfort level....  For myself, I have some curiousity about how shorting plays out for others, but I have no compelling reason to change my own practice because what I do feels really good for me.  I did go out and buy a couple of nice things in the past few weeks, so my bitcoin strategy is not taking away from my treating of myself.  By the way, I recall that you took a sufficiently modest short that was an attempt to prepare for price movements in either direction, which is a good thing to do.   Perhaps on reflection you want to tell yourself to play bigger on the next short that you take in similar circumstances (and that could end up playing out in a different way... A lot of shorters do get reckt, so hopefully there are ways to act in moderation in order to not wipe out your profits with any future shorts that you might take - and more likely to be true if you continue to play them in moderation rather than getting greedy.

My final point, however, was the admission that for all we know, the badger might well not give a single fuck what we or anybody else thinks or feels.

I do not engage in these kinds of discussions in order to find out how people feel, but instead to brainstorm differing perspectives.  Yes, largely I have developed plans for myself that play out no matter the price direction and no matter what other people think or feel, but in the end on the margins, we can still learn by sharing ideas with other peeps... and some other peeps are going to profit from our sharing of knowledge (and experiences) too.  Don't get me wrong, I am largely in agreement with you... which is that I doubt that my input or the input of others in this thread causes BTC price action(s), but we still have the ability to profit from participating in such thread discussions, even if seemingly repetitive.

[Anon136]

6800

I don't think there are too many people up to celebrate with you right now but I will. Cheers.

[Wekkel]

6800

I don't think there are too many people up to celebrate with you right now but I will. Cheers.

The 6800 has been a barrier lately. Breaking it would be a bullish signal. But a fail to break it would spoil our summer party.

[jojo69]

OK

Dungeon Master Bob in a robe and pointy hat got a hearty chuckle out of me.

merit

[DaRude]

And if that each person wanted to make just 32 transactions to different people bcash would need 30yrs to process that. Think about that!

I have thought about that. Today, that is indeed the case. Or even maybe longer - as 32MB is the currently supported max, which is subject to miners' decisions to create blocks smaller than max.

Which is, of course, why there has been discussion within the BCH development community -- for as long as there has been a BCH -- on other orthogonal approaches to scaling.

So while true today, it will be false for some value of 'tomorrow'.

In the meantime, BCH is not suiciding itself for the sake of some illusory benefit of 'decentralization' along some axis that is entirely irrelevant.

Orthogonal?

Yes. Do you understand the term? In this case, meaning scaling in a manner unrelated to the max block size.

You mean like side chains!

Sidechainy things are within the universe of things being discussed, though certainly not exclusively, nor even leadingly.

WTF that wasn't in Satoshi's white paper!!!

Point?

Wait so you're saying that different solutions might come in the future so time and resources are better spent on near term issues

In a manner of speaking, yes. Time tested engineering principles focus on the bang-for-the-buck solutions. Always.

However, it is not 'might come'. We know of several scaling solutions orthogonal to increasing the max block size. The discussions underway are focused upon cost/benefit analysis. Or alternately risk/benefit analysis. You know - the essence of engineering.

Reread that ^ few times, and then read your initial troll post about it taking 30yrs to transfer BTC to every human on earth. And then try really really REALLY hard to continue to troll as if you don't see the parallels

[Phil_S]

The daily 200 MA is falling pretty steeply these days. At this rate, it won't be much longer until it encounters the 50 MA for a golden cross.

Assuming the 50 MA flattens out around current prices, this would bring us to mid-September-ish. This is how it played out the last time we had a golden cross in 2015: the 200 MA fell to meet a flat 50 MA.

200 MA fall would slow down, pretty soon. It would be just barely under $8000 in September. It might even stop there...

We would be very lucky if the price (let alone 50 MA) reaches $8000 in September.

[JayJuanGee]

The daily 200 MA is falling pretty steeply these days. At this rate, it won't be much longer until it encounters the 50 MA for a golden cross.

Assuming the 50 MA flattens out around current prices, this would bring us to mid-September-ish. This is how it played out the last time we had a golden cross in 2015: the 200 MA fell to meet a flat 50 MA.

200 MA fall would slow down, pretty soon. It would be just barely under $8000 in September. It might even stop there...

We would be very lucky if the price (let alone 50 MA) reaches $8000 in September.

You are a party poop, Phil.   

[Anon136]

OK

Dungeon Master Bob in a robe and pointy hat got a hearty chuckle out of me.

merit

Don't encourage him!