Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I am playing around with Google Trends data of "Bitcoin" as a search term v Bitcoin price.  I used the daily values for each for 2018, converted to a percentage.  Start date is 1 January 2018, end date is 5 September 2018.

Price is orange, trend data is green.  

So, "absolute" is the number of bitcoin queries as a fraction of global Google use?

Hmm. I can't spot any pattern. Can you?

It would be nice to have the day scale in months/weeks rather than absolute numbers, with a few markers to put things into historical perspective.

The first peak in searches seems to anticipate the price. After that first event, the curves seem mostly uncorrelated. Maybe if we REALLY search Google a lot we could...?

I was of the opinion that google searches follow price (like in the FOMO period) rather than leading price.. in other words a lagging indicator.

I think where I am going with this is confirmation of a price trend.  If google searches don't follow an upwards price trend, then the price trend is suspect.  

Sure.  When you are comparing google searches to BTC price, you might be able to find a bit of a trend here and there, but I would suspect that down trend will continue in google searches quite a bit after bitcoin has already been going up in price, and so the google search uptrend does not begin to show for so long that by the time you notice it, the price has already done a 2x or 3x from where it was.. perhaps more.

I bet you can see a similar thing in 2015/2016...   Pretty much we were coming out of the bear market in late 2015.. (let's say such coming out happened in the October time frame when prices shot from mid-to-upper $200s to $500 and then settled back into the $350 to $450 range until about end of May 2016), but really we likely did not realize that we were out of such bear market until after May 2016.. but we even had some false starts after May 2016, too, with the Bitfinex crash in August 2016 and then some subsequent drama in late 2016 and early 2017 with the blocksize bullshit, flippening bullshit and BTC forking threats.  

I bet that Google search trends did not really begin to pick up until late 2017 - even though the price had already done more than a 10x from its mid $200s and a lot of event confusion happened with subsequent BTC price surges in the middle.

Because of all of the fucking confusion regarding value, fundamentals and what is Bitcoin compared with crypto, I mean it seems to me that during the most recent price run, peeps did not really even start to get bullish about bitcoin and to start to think that bitcoin fundamentals were strong (and that bitcoin had overcome the propaganda and forkening threats) until about August/September 2017 - but BTC prices were already floating 10x from their 2015 starting point.. and that is really when the up-trend in google searches likely begun to show... so I am not sure how you are going to sort through the noise using google search information in confusing consolidating times like these.. and price can still go up and meaningfully go up even if google searches remain quite low for another year...and then we are in the $30k territory before peeps start to consider taking bitcoin seriously enough in order that there search information meaningfully increases... . something like that.

I am playing around with Google Trends data of "Bitcoin" as a search term v Bitcoin price.  I used the daily values for each for 2018, converted to a percentage.  Start date is 1 January 2018, end date is 5 September 2018.

Price is orange, trend data is green.  

So, "absolute" is the number of bitcoin queries as a fraction of global Google use?

Hmm. I can't spot any pattern. Can you?

It would be nice to have the day scale in months/weeks rather than absolute numbers, with a few markers to put things into historical perspective.

The first peak in searches seems to anticipate the price. After that first event, the curves seem mostly uncorrelated. Maybe if we REALLY search Google a lot we could...?

I was of the opinion that google searches follow price (like in the FOMO period) rather than leading price.. in other words a lagging indicator.

I think where I am going with this is confirmation of a price trend.  If google searches don't follow an upwards price trend, then the price trend is suspect. 

I see your point, JJG and Hairy. It makes sense. But I can see such a confirmation only after the second spike - not the first. This doesn't make as much sense, does it?

@ d_eddie - That might be something similar to what I am attempting to say, perhaps?

[El duderino_]

^
agreed 100% on this kind of places
nevermind i do love thailand for holidays ....

[goldkingcoiner]

Rich? Maybe in theoretical dollars but ask any of these coin sluts if they are planning on cashing out and they will scratch your eyes out.

Who would sit through the entire painful bear season just to sell the bottom?

You know what they say about prices...

1) It is either the ATH

2) or the ATL

You want the above to rotate in an UPWARD direction rather than the reverse!

(or so it seems)

brad

obviously not at the bottom. Cmon.

[El duderino_]

Mmmm biggest block ever mind in BTC history.... who said BTC isn’t scaling 

[crypmike]

Meanwhile, Citi is launching an instrument called a "Digital Asset Receipt". Who needs an ETF?

Love it how the market is ignoring the SEC FUD  

ETF is a scam now  

[gbianchi]

[goldkingcoiner]

Is it really prudent to be looking at the regression lines of bitcoin starting in the year 2011? Back then it was still mostly unknown to most people so trying to read the chart at that point seems a bit arbitrary to me. Mass adoption of bitcoin starting at the end of 2013 seems to be a more reliable factor.

[crypmike]

Nice words

Over the last 16 months, as I've debated this issue around the world, every single time somebody has said to me, "I don't really worry about invasions of privacy because I don't have anything to hide." I always say the same thing to them. I get out a pen, I write down my email address. I say, "Here's my email address. What I want you to do when you get home is email me the passwords to all of your email accounts, not just the nice, respectable work one in your name, but all of them, because I want to be able to just troll through what it is you're doing online, read what I want to read and publish whatever I find interesting. After all, if you're not a bad person, if you're doing nothing wrong, you should have nothing to hide. Not a single person has taken me up on that offer. " — Glenn Greenwald


https://www.ted.com/talks/glenn_greenwald_why_privacy_matters/transcript

[alevlaslo]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg45485555#msg45485555

[vapourminer]

Nice words

Over the last 16 months, as I've debated this issue around the world, every single time somebody has said to me, "I don't really worry about invasions of privacy because I don't have anything to hide." I always say the same thing to them. I get out a pen, I write down my email address. I say, "Here's my email address. What I want you to do when you get home is email me the passwords to all of your email accounts, not just the nice, respectable work one in your name, but all of them, because I want to be able to just troll through what it is you're doing online, read what I want to read and publish whatever I find interesting. After all, if you're not a bad person, if you're doing nothing wrong, you should have nothing to hide. Not a single person has taken me up on that offer. " — Glenn Greenwald


https://www.ted.com/talks/glenn_greenwald_why_privacy_matters/transcript

i look at it this way.. while i may have nothing to hide from the government right now, who knows what currently legal activity may become illegal in the future? nothing like having decades of data to comb through to jail someone on something they dont like and pass new laws on. or "leaking" legal, but embarrassing data of someone they target and want to discredit.

and im sure all that data is very secure, with no chance of it getting stolen or misused. we all know how good the government is at data security.

[crypmike]

Nice words

Over the last 16 months, as I've debated this issue around the world, every single time somebody has said to me, "I don't really worry about invasions of privacy because I don't have anything to hide." I always say the same thing to them. I get out a pen, I write down my email address. I say, "Here's my email address. What I want you to do when you get home is email me the passwords to all of your email accounts, not just the nice, respectable work one in your name, but all of them, because I want to be able to just troll through what it is you're doing online, read what I want to read and publish whatever I find interesting. After all, if you're not a bad person, if you're doing nothing wrong, you should have nothing to hide. Not a single person has taken me up on that offer. " — Glenn Greenwald


https://www.ted.com/talks/glenn_greenwald_why_privacy_matters/transcript

i look at it this way.. while i may have nothing to hide from the government right now, who knows what currently legal activity may become illegal in the future? nothing like having decades of data to comb through to jail someone on something they dont like and pass new laws on. or "leaking" legal, but embarrassing data of someone they target and want to discredit.

and im sure all that data is very secure, with no chance of it getting stolen or misused. we all know how good the government is at data security.

I prefer not to publish any compromising information at all
(except some hidden chats in secure messengers like Telegram, but also nothing really compromising)

[vapourminer]

i look at it this way.. while i may have nothing to hide from the government right now, who knows what currently legal activity may become illegal in the future? nothing like having decades of data to comb through to jail someone on something they dont like and pass new laws on. or "leaking" legal, but embarrassing data of someone they target and want to discredit.

and im sure all that data is very secure, with no chance of it getting stolen or misused. we all know how good the government is at data security.

I prefer not to publish any compromising information at all
(except some hidden chats in secure messengers like Telegram, but also nothing really compromising)

doesnt have to be self published to be monitored by the government. i wont go into tinfoil hat territory but there are so many sources of information the government can or will be able tap into it isnt funny. what you knowingly send/receive on a computer or smartphone may be the least of ones worries.

[TopTort777]

I'm "as strong as this guy."

[JayJuanGee]

i have and continue to make/modify plans that take into account worse case scenarios, at least as far as i am able. the potential failure of fiat is included in those plans. but, so is the failure of btc.

personally i am quite confident in btc rising in value. but i wont stake our future on just btc. or just fiat. we need to survive either ones failure. and even then its possible both will fail. thats my biggest worry, both go south. but its possible to survive that too, if you have enough things of value that can be traded for whatever is needed.

btc, fiat, physical holdings. one fails, no biggie, but annoying. two fail, well thats gonna hurt but its still possible to survive ok, although it will almost certainly suck a lot. but it still beats being homeless, starving and depending on others. all three fail? well, it was fun while it lasted. hopefully one has knowledge or skills that are in demand.

its not that simple of course, but thats my general view.

Of course, it is good to have various tentative plans for a wide variety of scenarios, but it is also not prudent to plan 50/50 or even betting 5% on an event that only has a .0238495% chance of happening.  Each of us should be attempting to be honest with ourselves and honestly attempting to allocate reasonably both upside and downside and tweaking from time to time (as you seem to already be in the practice of doing).

agreed. someone in a country with high inflation or a corrupt/insane dictator will allocate to those categories differently than someone in a more or less stable country. or some place prone to natural disasters that could wipe out vast parts of the land or infrastructure. each one must assign a risk factor and try to allocate/adjust funds accordingly.

Sure there is a difference between personal utility of someone in a location with fewer banking resources and also inflationary issues with their own currency, and that provides a specific and personal use case for them with bitcoin, but still does not mean that they personally are going to be able to learn about it or to use it in the near term... but like you said gives them an incentive to learn about it and to buy it right away.

now, if i were single, i would have much more of my net worth in btc. but im married now and much more risk averse.

Maybe there is a way of considering married like running a business?  You have to keep more of a reserve in your fiat order to be able to support some of the increased monthly and regular expenses.   I agree with you that relationship status might cause you to become a bit more risk averse, but you can still apply a lot of the same investment principles, and the degree to which you are risk averse is only one of the factors.  The other factors consist of your cash flow, views on bitcoin, timeline, so each of those would be accounted for and tailorized to how much you are ready, willing and able to invest.   

single, i did take much higher risks as they only affected me, no problem.. im an idiot, know it, and paid the stupid tax when needed. married, i wont risk our comfortable retirement simply for more possible profit. thats not to say i wont take risks for more profit at all, but much smaller ones than previously. securing our future is the priority. and to me that means more diversification. and i dont mean alts (junk), i mean non crypto. even though that has far less potential dividends, plus has its share of downsides too.

As my signature says, I feel very little compunction to diversify into alts, and really I consider bitcoin to be serving the niche that I felt was lacking in my dollar based investment portfolio... that currently largely consists of a variety of index stocks, bonds connected to a 401k.

guess i just sleep more comfortably knowing ive done what i can to cover as many bases (to a reasonable extent) as i can.

Ultimately it is good to sleep well.   I am way less nervous now, than I was when I was still accumulating and establishing my bitcoin position... which also allows for trading BIGGER swings - and I suspect if the price continues to go up in the long term, as expected, then my trading swings should become even BIGGER with bitcoin becoming even more passive than its current status.

By the way, some people feel better sleeping in a higher percentage of fiat or fiat based assets, and there is nothing wrong with that, and I suppose once you get above a certain quantity in total, then at least you can feel comfortable that all you basic needs are taken care of that can thereafter cause some higher risk taking with a certain acceptable percentage of your total holdings.  I have always been quite conservative myself, even when I first started investing and I hardly had any value at all, I wanted to make sure that overall there was a considerable likelihood that my investments would make money and that I was living within my means and that I had a sufficient cashflow and cushion to cover my expenses for several months into the future.  I got better and better at developing tools to monitor my ongoing progress and bitcoin has been one of the most liberating of investments in terms of flexibility in terms of investment and the 24/7 aspects too... and surely earning power has totally outperformed (and blown away any of my other previous and current investments)

also, for the record, i think bitcoin is the future of money and storage of value. writing that just in case someone thinks i dont.

Some of the implications of your suggestions seem to come off as if you were somewhat overly bearish about bitcoin, and surely it helps to have positive views about whatever you invest into.  I personally don't invest much of anything into shit coins because I have very little long term optimism about them.  Regarding your coming off as seeming bearish, when you are suggesting to diversify and to take out profits during consolidation that just seems a bit ridiculous because those things should have already been done, and we seem to be in HODL and ACCUMULATL time, NOT sell time.  To each their own, if they fucked up and did not sell earlier or did not anticipate so much consolidation or so much of a downtrend in bitcoin, but we should already know that these kinds of things are possible, but still does not mean that we should be selling on the way down unless we are admitting to ourselves that we screwed up.

bitcoin was and is the best investment i ever did. im just somewhat more pessimistic about the world in general as i age.

O.k.

just wait till youre old and decrepit like i am, your viewpoint may change too heh.

You seem to be assuming a lot here, and my above comments in this post and previous posts seem to have already addressed this point. 

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/BigRekts


I'm putting on my seatbelt, just incase.

Maybe later today but @the moment not yet seatbelt action 

[~Money~]

Maybe later today but @the moment not yet seatbelt action  

Yeah. Took my seatbelt off. Gonna get hammered today, read some science fiction, then take a nap.

Bored out of my fucking mind.

i took off dozen days ago while there was speculations about crypto market, i am actually really happy to leave it before these crashes and market manipulations

this crashes are kindda good for market, the whales can get more BTC in cheaper prices and make the manipulations easier than before,

people are talking about panic sell, total sell off, market bleed, but they dont think when they are selling, who is it buying 

think clearly, be sharp, dont get scammed 

[Hueristic]

I've just read this thread from friday and don't see anything about this.

Can someone ELI5 this shit for me. I read a bunch of the links but I don't follow this drama. I'm not sure how those keys work so can he really get those keys and try a flip?

UT 700K to 1 Million Bitcoin (BTC and any Bitcoin-Fork) “worthy any price on January 1, 2020” could be the ultimate dump from BTC to BCH or BCC or which ever “Bitcoin is Cash” Craig and them/team decide to do? Quick math at 700,000 BTC at $7,000 is $4.9 Billion (and if was 1,000,000 BTC at ATH of $20K~) would be $20 Billion range – by January 1, 2020 (next halving will be between April-June 2020) the price of one BTC could be much higher given the trajectory and advancements being made despite all the internal politics.

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/satoshi-nakamoto-craig-wright-dave-kleiman-phil-wilson-bitcoin-creators-revealed/


BTW if it was me I would burn those on his shitchain first and then dump on all the forks and btc while supporting his shitcoin.

[rebal15]

Eth just had a crash, let's see if these makes it's way over to the btc/usd charts.

Dumping ETH to dump BTC,

[doc12]

I've just read this thread from friday and don't see anything about this.

Can someone ELI5 this shit for me. I read a bunch of the links but I don't follow this drama. I'm not sure how those keys work so can he really get those keys and try a flip?

UT 700K to 1 Million Bitcoin (BTC and any Bitcoin-Fork) “worthy any price on January 1, 2020” could be the ultimate dump from BTC to BCH or BCC or which ever “Bitcoin is Cash” Craig and them/team decide to do? Quick math at 700,000 BTC at $7,000 is $4.9 Billion (and if was 1,000,000 BTC at ATH of $20K~) would be $20 Billion range – by January 1, 2020 (next halving will be between April-June 2020) the price of one BTC could be much higher given the trajectory and advancements being made despite all the internal politics.

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/satoshi-nakamoto-craig-wright-dave-kleiman-phil-wilson-bitcoin-creators-revealed/


BTW if it was me I would burn those on his shitchain first and then dump on all the forks and btc while supporting his shitcoin.

There is no victory for this shitchain, if they try to destroy Bitcoin they will destroy themselves.

[hv_]

I've just read this thread from friday and don't see anything about this.

Can someone ELI5 this shit for me. I read a bunch of the links but I don't follow this drama. I'm not sure how those keys work so can he really get those keys and try a flip?

UT 700K to 1 Million Bitcoin (BTC and any Bitcoin-Fork) “worthy any price on January 1, 2020” could be the ultimate dump from BTC to BCH or BCC or which ever “Bitcoin is Cash” Craig and them/team decide to do? Quick math at 700,000 BTC at $7,000 is $4.9 Billion (and if was 1,000,000 BTC at ATH of $20K~) would be $20 Billion range – by January 1, 2020 (next halving will be between April-June 2020) the price of one BTC could be much higher given the trajectory and advancements being made despite all the internal politics.

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/satoshi-nakamoto-craig-wright-dave-kleiman-phil-wilson-bitcoin-creators-revealed/


BTW if it was me I would burn those on his shitchain first and then dump on all the forks and btc while supporting his shitcoin.

There is no victory for this shitchain, if they try to destroy Bitcoin they will destroy themselves.

Netscape is gone...

If Bitcoin is anti fragile than any implementation will survive that protocol fight.

Otherwise its gone anyway.