Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[katrinmi]

For the first time I caught a top, and for the first time I caught a bottom, I guess smaller orders are easier to fill (1BTC and 0.5BTC) :

[gembitz]

For the first time I caught a top, and for the first time I caught a bottom, I guess smaller orders are easier to fill (1BTC and 0.5BTC) :

timburrrr    lel

[El duderino_]

lel

[HairyMaclairy]

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia

Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.

Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?

Perhaps, but likely only in respect to closely-related topics.

Q: Do you believe the insiders (e.g., Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, et al) who stated back in 2008 the world was close to a complete and total financial meltdown?

Q: What changes enacted since then to stave off the possibility of further such events have actually made progress towards that objective?

1.  Well they need to justify Troubled Asset Relief Program, and the various Quantative Easing programs. Reality is we will never know because we don’t get to run alternative simulations.

2. There are a ton of changes that have been made to the financial system since, such as the amount of margin banks are required to hold and reducing lending against toxic instruments. That lending now tends to come from shadow banking institutions and hedge funds.

Whether pushing the toxic crap out to hedge funds helps the stability of global financial system remains to be seen. Either way you can be assured the world’s governments would just bail the banks out again.  The precedent has already been set.

In short, there is no particular reason to think the next financial crisis will tip over the apple cart.

[HairyMaclairy]

Why, suddenly, there is a discussion on whether bearish opinions are even welcomed.
You can be a short term bear, but long term bull. Heck, you can even be a long term bear as long as you describe your opinion intelligently.
Here, like on the stock boards, some people always mistake an opinion with an ability to influence the price.

I was teasing mindrust.  Sorry humor is tricky online.

If any consolation I am not really bullish for another 1.5 months. We need to wait for October.

[Wilhelm]

Current Bitcoin movement feels like priming a trebuchet. Feels like at any moment it will launch and go to 15k in a short burst.  

[sirazimuth]

I was there when Vitalis Butylene came to the Bitcoin Center in New York City in 2014 to flog his token.

Is that a euphemism?   If not, it ought to be...

ha ha, I see what you did there , kinda like ...

shake the shank
polish the probe
flap the foreskin
yank the yheti
rub the rebar...

..that sort of thing....

[El duderino_]

Boys i’m faaaaar over the edge at the 7th course with paired wines and sh*t, going to the toilet....
But still manage to not do the F***ed Up toilet pic

[Wilhelm]

Boys i’m faaaaar over the edge at the 7th course with paired wines and sh*t, going to the toilet....
But still manage to not do the F***ed Up toilet pic

Don't forget to taste the whiskeys Bro 

[El duderino_]

Boys i’m faaaaar over the edge at the 7th course with paired wines and sh*t, going to the toilet....
But still manage to not do the F***ed Up toilet pic

Don't forget to taste the whiskeys Bro 

I did stopped with it for a second, Maybe in the Winter I Will retry them

Also just noticed you’re recent? Legendary as well??

[Wilhelm]

Boys i’m faaaaar over the edge at the 7th course with paired wines and sh*t, going to the toilet....
But still manage to not do the F***ed Up toilet pic

Don't forget to taste the whiskeys Bro  

I did stopped with it for a second, Maybe in the Winter I Will retry them

Also just noticed you’re recent? Legendary as well??

I've been around since Bitcoin was $90 or so.
Every now and then I check my substantial holdings and read and post a bit

Just checked: Ok I've been here 4 years longer than you 

[El duderino_]

Boys i’m faaaaar over the edge at the 7th course with paired wines and sh*t, going to the toilet....
But still manage to not do the F***ed Up toilet pic

Don't forget to taste the whiskeys Bro  

I did stopped with it for a second, Maybe in the Winter I Will retry them

Also just noticed you’re recent? Legendary as well??

I've been around since Bitcoin was $90 or so.
Every now and then I check my substantial holdings and read and post a bit

Just checked: Ok I've been here 4 years longer than you 

On the forum yes

At BTC also I was only around when it was around 350-ish

[Wilhelm]

Boys i’m faaaaar over the edge at the 7th course with paired wines and sh*t, going to the toilet....
But still manage to not do the F***ed Up toilet pic

Don't forget to taste the whiskeys Bro  

I did stopped with it for a second, Maybe in the Winter I Will retry them

Also just noticed you’re recent? Legendary as well??

I've been around since Bitcoin was $90 or so.
Every now and then I check my substantial holdings and read and post a bit

Just checked: Ok I've been here 4 years longer than you 

On the forum yes

At BTC also I was only around when it was around 350-ish

Your name gives me the idea that you are also from the Netherlands...

[makrospex]

Your name gives me the idea that you are also from the Netherlands...

While watching "Ron Goossens, Low Budget Stuntman", the name gave me a smile several times.

[Wilhelm]

Your name gives me the idea that you are also from the Netherlands...

While watching "Ron Goossens, Low Budget Stuntman", the name gave me a smile several times.

Thans for the tip .... Tim Haars is fun 

[El duderino_]

Boys i’m faaaaar over the edge at the 7th course with paired wines and sh*t, going to the toilet....
But still manage to not do the F***ed Up toilet pic

Don't forget to taste the whiskeys Bro  

I did stopped with it for a second, Maybe in the Winter I Will retry them

Also just noticed you’re recent? Legendary as well??

I've been around since Bitcoin was $90 or so.
Every now and then I check my substantial holdings and read and post a bit

Just checked: Ok I've been here 4 years longer than you 

On the forum yes

At BTC also I was only around when it was around 350-ish

Your name gives me the idea that you are also from the Netherlands...

Close..... Belgium.....

[El duderino_]

Your name gives me the idea that you are also from the Netherlands...

While watching "Ron Goossens, Low Budget Stuntman", the name gave me a smile several times.

Haha I still need to see that movie, but I was am a huge NEW kids fan.... or the Dutch undercover with frank lammers

[Biodom]

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.

Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?

Perhaps, but likely only in respect to closely-related topics.

Q: Do you believe the insiders (e.g., Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, et al) who stated back in 2008 the world was close to a complete and total financial meltdown?

Q: What changes enacted since then to stave off the possibility of further such events have actually made progress towards that objective?

In short, there is no particular reason to think the next financial crisis will tip over the apple cart.

Most likely, yes, but I am troubled by a fact that Albert Edwards keeps being proven right (in the long run).
He long predicted that Japanese experience in 1989-2009 will repeat itself, first in EU, then US and it started to happen with negative yields, no growth, etc.
He predicts US 10 year notes eventually close to -1%. Imagine that.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/01/21/albert-edwards-on-the-problems-facing-the-us-italy-and-china

His key prediction was that over the next 12- to 18-month period, U.S. bonds yields will decline and converge with those in Germany and Switzerland. Those yields will end up in negative territory, according to Edwards.

Well, we had driven 30 year down from 3.5 to 2% in a space of just 10 months (almost a 43% decline). More to come, most likely.

We don't know how this would affect bitcoin. Probably a mixed basket.

TL;DR If A. Edwards is right (and he certainly was on bonds) and we are going down 75-80% in equities in the next recession, I wouldn't be so sure about the apple cart

[makrospex]

Your name gives me the idea that you are also from the Netherlands...

While watching "Ron Goossens, Low Budget Stuntman", the name gave me a smile several times.

Haha I still need to see that movie, but I was am a huge NEW kids fan.... or the Dutch undercover with frank lammers

I did enjoy the NK first movie, but the second one left me rather unimpressed, don't know exactly why.
"Low Budget Stuntman" was refreshing, while not funny in the first place.
On the top of my list of euro-movies: Still "I Kina spiser de hunde" (In china they eat dogs"), and also all of the Kim Bodnia action movies afterwards.

[HairyMaclairy]

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.

Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?

Perhaps, but likely only in respect to closely-related topics.

Q: Do you believe the insiders (e.g., Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, et al) who stated back in 2008 the world was close to a complete and total financial meltdown?

Q: What changes enacted since then to stave off the possibility of further such events have actually made progress towards that objective?

In short, there is no particular reason to think the next financial crisis will tip over the apple cart.

Most likely, yes, but I am troubled by a fact that Albert Edwards keeps being proven right (in the long run).
He long predicted that Japanese experience in 1989-2009 will repeat itself, first in EU, then US and it started to happen with negative yields, no growth, etc.
He predicts US 10 year notes eventually close to -1%. Imagine that.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/01/21/albert-edwards-on-the-problems-facing-the-us-italy-and-china

His key prediction was that over the next 12- to 18-month period, U.S. bonds yields will decline and converge with those in Germany and Switzerland. Those yields will end up in negative territory, according to Edwards.

Well, we had driven 30 year down from 3.5 to 2% in a space of just 10 months (almost a 43% decline). More to come, most likely.

We don't know how this would affect bitcoin. Probably a mixed basket.

TL;DR If A. Edwards is right (and he certainly was on bonds) and we are going down 75-80% in equities in the next recession, I wouldn't be so sure about the apple cart

Every man and his dog have now successfully predicted a recession over the 18 months.  

This to me is proof a recession will not happen in that time frame.  

From the linked article:

The economist Brad de Long has noted that three of last four recessions were from unforeseen shocks in financial markets (the collapse of the dot-com bubble, the real estate bubble and the S&L crisis).

The current bond inversion is sufficiently foreseen that this recession will be avoided.