Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.

Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?

Perhaps, but likely only in respect to closely-related topics.

Q: Do you believe the insiders (e.g., Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, et al) who stated back in 2008 the world was close to a complete and total financial meltdown?

Q: What changes enacted since then to stave off the possibility of further such events have actually made progress towards that objective?

In short, there is no particular reason to think the next financial crisis will tip over the apple cart.

Most likely, yes, but I am troubled by a fact that Albert Edwards keeps being proven right (in the long run).
He long predicted that Japanese experience in 1989-2009 will repeat itself, first in EU, then US and it started to happen with negative yields, no growth, etc.
He predicts US 10 year notes eventually close to -1%. Imagine that.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/01/21/albert-edwards-on-the-problems-facing-the-us-italy-and-china

His key prediction was that over the next 12- to 18-month period, U.S. bonds yields will decline and converge with those in Germany and Switzerland. Those yields will end up in negative territory, according to Edwards.

Well, we had driven 30 year down from 3.5 to 2% in a space of just 10 months (almost a 43% decline). More to come, most likely.

We don't know how this would affect bitcoin. Probably a mixed basket.

TL;DR If A. Edwards is right (and he certainly was on bonds) and we are going down 75-80% in equities in the next recession, I wouldn't be so sure about the apple cart

Every man and his dog have now successfully predicted a recession over the 18 months.  

This to me is proof a recession will not happen in that time frame.  

From the linked article:

The economist Brad de Long has noted that three of last four recessions were from unforeseen shocks in financial markets (the collapse of the dot-com bubble, the real estate bubble and the S&L crisis).

The current bond inversion is sufficiently foreseen that this recession will be avoided.

IMHO, 50:50.
The previously unforeseen factors are tariffs and/or US-China spat (which could easily become long term).

[infofront]

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.

Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?

Perhaps, but likely only in respect to closely-related topics.

Q: Do you believe the insiders (e.g., Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, et al) who stated back in 2008 the world was close to a complete and total financial meltdown?

Q: What changes enacted since then to stave off the possibility of further such events have actually made progress towards that objective?

In short, there is no particular reason to think the next financial crisis will tip over the apple cart.

Most likely, yes, but I am troubled by a fact that Albert Edwards keeps being proven right (in the long run).
He long predicted that Japanese experience in 1989-2009 will repeat itself, first in EU, then US and it started to happen with negative yields, no growth, etc.
He predicts US 10 year notes eventually close to -1%. Imagine that.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/01/21/albert-edwards-on-the-problems-facing-the-us-italy-and-china

His key prediction was that over the next 12- to 18-month period, U.S. bonds yields will decline and converge with those in Germany and Switzerland. Those yields will end up in negative territory, according to Edwards.

Well, we had driven 30 year down from 3.5 to 2% in a space of just 10 months (almost a 43% decline). More to come, most likely.

We don't know how this would affect bitcoin. Probably a mixed basket.

TL;DR If A. Edwards is right (and he certainly was on bonds) and we are going down 75-80% in equities in the next recession, I wouldn't be so sure about the apple cart

Every man and his dog have now successfully predicted a recession over the 18 months.  

This to me is proof a recession will not happen in that time frame.  

From the linked article:

The economist Brad de Long has noted that three of last four recessions were from unforeseen shocks in financial markets (the collapse of the dot-com bubble, the real estate bubble and the S&L crisis).

The current bond inversion is sufficiently foreseen that this recession will be avoided.

It depends what country you're talking about. A recession anytime soon is off the table for the US, but the rest of the world is in trouble.

[infofront]

New poll courtesy of Hairy.

[somac.]

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.

Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?

Perhaps, but likely only in respect to closely-related topics.

Q: Do you believe the insiders (e.g., Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, et al) who stated back in 2008 the world was close to a complete and total financial meltdown?

Q: What changes enacted since then to stave off the possibility of further such events have actually made progress towards that objective?

In short, there is no particular reason to think the next financial crisis will tip over the apple cart.

Most likely, yes, but I am troubled by a fact that Albert Edwards keeps being proven right (in the long run).
He long predicted that Japanese experience in 1989-2009 will repeat itself, first in EU, then US and it started to happen with negative yields, no growth, etc.
He predicts US 10 year notes eventually close to -1%. Imagine that.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/01/21/albert-edwards-on-the-problems-facing-the-us-italy-and-china

His key prediction was that over the next 12- to 18-month period, U.S. bonds yields will decline and converge with those in Germany and Switzerland. Those yields will end up in negative territory, according to Edwards.

Well, we had driven 30 year down from 3.5 to 2% in a space of just 10 months (almost a 43% decline). More to come, most likely.

We don't know how this would affect bitcoin. Probably a mixed basket.

TL;DR If A. Edwards is right (and he certainly was on bonds) and we are going down 75-80% in equities in the next recession, I wouldn't be so sure about the apple cart

Every man and his dog have now successfully predicted a recession over the 18 months.  

This to me is proof a recession will not happen in that time frame.  

From the linked article:

The economist Brad de Long has noted that three of last four recessions were from unforeseen shocks in financial markets (the collapse of the dot-com bubble, the real estate bubble and the S&L crisis).

The current bond inversion is sufficiently foreseen that this recession will be avoided.

The US may not fall into recession, but a lot of the world will. US bond inversion is most likely due to the rest of the world's money printing. There is talk of the US playing around with 50 and 100 year bonds. If so, and maybe regardless, expect large US infrastructure spends in the future. This would be enough for the US to avoid recession alone. Time will tell.

[El duderino_]

^^
I was the 5th vote 

[Biodom]

^^
I was the 5th vote  

I see your point 

[HairyMaclairy]

Who is the pervert that voted for sex?

[Dabs]

Not me, I voted Bitcorn.

[GreatArkansas]

Who is the pervert that voted for sex?

I don't have girlfriend, only Bitcoin.

[Searing]

^^
I was the 5th vote 

heh...I was the 2nd vote. (no way to prove but I was!)

that will never happen again on any vote on Bitcointalk in the future.

brad

[lightfoot]

Who is the pervert that voted for sex?

Me. Bitcoin helps to get sex, which is nice.

(First vote. Woot!)

[HairyMaclairy]

Brokers are selling the bear market story to retail

[nutildah]

There's another Satoshi out there, making his "big reveal" later today:

https://www.ccn.com/mystery-bitcoin-inventor-satoshi-nakamoto-to-reveal-identity/

First I read it was a press release and thought, oh there's no way this isn't bullshit. Then I saw CCN had picked it up as a news item, and now I still think its bullshit.

I voted for sex. I think about bitcoin a lot, but its just not part of my biological instinct, unlike some of yous.

[SuperTA]

There's another Satoshi out there, making his "big reveal" later today:

https://www.ccn.com/mystery-bitcoin-inventor-satoshi-nakamoto-to-reveal-identity/

First I read it was a press release and thought, oh there's no way this isn't bullshit. Then I saw CCN had picked it up as a news item, and now I still think its bullshit.

I voted for sex. I think about bitcoin a lot, but its just not part of my biological instinct, unlike some of yous.

Satoshi would never reveal himself! Even if he would, he wouldn't make announcement about announcement. Like Justin Sun makes it when he wants to shill and pump his coin. Another thing, he wouldn't announce it on some random website.

[fillippone]

Brokers are selling the bear market story to retail

If you really wanted to censor the name of your broker you did quite a poor job.
I put my drone controlled-blockchain based-3D printed-AI Smart-drone to improve the job:



You are welcome HairyMaclairy

[jojo69]

figured I better help out here

[JayJuanGee]

The best scenario is buy BTC when it was below $50. (Ideally, when it was below $1). So you have say a few thousand corns. Let's say 10k.
Then you participate in, let's say ETH, and part with half of your corns. so that's 10 million ETH.
Then you participate in a bunch of different ICOs with maybe even just 1 million ETH. And you do an average of 5x. Some go to zero. Some go 10x. Then bring it all back to ETH or BTC.
Then you HODL until ATH... maybe at 15k per BTC, 1k per ETH.

Then, it would take me a literal couple of years cashing out about $10k USD every other day, so I can spread all over the world in 10 different fiat currencies and still have more than half left over in BTC, because there are still so many things I can't buy with just BTC, and everything else has to be paid in fiat and I don't mind investing in some traditional index ETFs to let it sit for the next 10 years.

At one point in time, I had available to me about $20k USD from a bank, in the Philippines, in about 2014. I could have used it to buy all corn back then ... it was maybe $500? So about 40 corns. If that's all I HODL'd until now and even with interest, I could have sold maybe 4 corns, paid back the loan, and still have 36 corns; or invested half in the ETH ICO and gotten 40k ETH.

But none of us knew that. Still. What if ...

Even though I don't know your situation with any kind of exactness, from your way of describing matters, I get a few different impressions, and some of them are about your way of framing these matters.  1) You seem to not really recognize what distinguishes bitcoin from ethereum and other coins/projects, 2) you seem inclined to gamble in a kind of way that you are inclined to be always attempting to chase increasing returns, 3) it seems that you want to rush matters, which is kind of related to item 2 and 3) you may even have some faults in your thinking in terms of your attempting to objectively classify what is rich or not rich, versus merely honing in on your own situation, which involves attempting to live within your means - which will have an ability to create a kind of richness because you would be able to live within your means, and then only using spare money after that in order to make investments  (including hopefully concentrating on bitcoin and not getting caught up with those various other projects).

Regarding your assessment that it is too late or maybe it is becoming too late to become rich from bitcoin, I don't think so.  No matter what, it is going to take some time to get rich, anyhow, even if you run into fortuitous circumstances, yet if you recognize bitcoin as the place to focus your investment efforts, you probably could still get rich from it, relatively speaking because if you recognize bitcoin as your main focus asset, then you might jus concentrate on investing in bitcoin (after of course, you have all of your monthy expenses covered, including emergency funds).

[Biodom]

The best scenario is buy BTC when it was below $50. (Ideally, when it was below $1). So you have say a few thousand corns. Let's say 10k.
Then you participate in, let's say ETH, and part with half of your corns. so that's 10 million ETH.
Then you participate in a bunch of different ICOs with maybe even just 1 million ETH. And you do an average of 5x. Some go to zero. Some go 10x. Then bring it all back to ETH or BTC.
Then you HODL until ATH... maybe at 15k per BTC, 1k per ETH.

Then, it would take me a literal couple of years cashing out about $10k USD every other day, so I can spread all over the world in 10 different fiat currencies and still have more than half left over in BTC, because there are still so many things I can't buy with just BTC, and everything else has to be paid in fiat and I don't mind investing in some traditional index ETFs to let it sit for the next 10 years.

At one point in time, I had available to me about $20k USD from a bank, in the Philippines, in about 2014. I could have used it to buy all corn back then ... it was maybe $500? So about 40 corns. If that's all I HODL'd until now and even with interest, I could have sold maybe 4 corns, paid back the loan, and still have 36 corns; or invested half in the ETH ICO and gotten 40k ETH.


But none of us knew that. Still. What if ...

Just noticed it, but your calcs are wrong...
10mil ETh would be $1.84 bil (now)-14.4bil (at the peak)...
Therefore at $10K every other day it would take someone 504-4114 years to cash out (theoretically, of course), NOT a couple of years.
js

PS: When i just started stock investment, i was building similar imaginary scenarios: what if i buy AMZN, then switch to GOOGL, then back to AMZN or FB, going on and on.
Not possible to create such branching in reality (both in stocks and in btc plus the rest of crypto), too many possibilities that you know about only post factum.

[HairyMaclairy]

Thanks guys but not my letter.  Taken from Twitster.

[JayJuanGee]

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia

Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.

Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?

Perhaps, but likely only in respect to closely-related topics.

Q: Do you believe the insiders (e.g., Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, et al) who stated back in 2008 the world was close to a complete and total financial meltdown?

I think that we have to take whatever those fucktwats were saying with a BIG ASS grain of salt, and there were likely a lot of ways to go forward.  They pled their case in such a way that they could get a pay out  (them and their buddies).

Q: What changes enacted since then to stave off the possibility of further such events have actually made progress towards that objective?

I doubt that there is an evolution in any direction regarding these kinds of macro-financial matters, and accordingly, I believe that there are all kinds of bullshit interim measures that can be taken and are taken to continue the facade and the smoke and mirrors and at least another 30 years of these kinds of baloney shenanigans are within reason of likelihood.