Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

interesting

[1715042600]

1715042600

[1715042600]

1715042600

[serveria.com]

Don't get mad at Luc.

He doesn't say it is going go to $6k without any conditions.

He says it will happen if it stays under $11k which is a pretty valid guess imo. I'll buy more tomorrow to help to invalidate this TA. If you want the same thing, you should too.

This thing won't go to $100k by itself, somebody has to buy it from $10k and $20k... $60k... and all the way up to $100k. Believe it or not, Some will even buy it at $100k.

This time BTC is going to $350-$450k so LOTS of peeps are going to jump in at $100k and further up.  

When it hits $100k the fomo will be real. I definately agree that we can see it run up to anywhere between $200k-$400k, and this will all go down within a month or so after hitting $100k

Better to be safe than sorry and prep your livers for 4 parties. 100k, 200k, 300k, 400k.

https://liverfoundation.org/13-ways-to-a-healthy-liver/

... or keep 4 liver transplants handy... 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Reward-Drop ETA date: 12 May 2020 06:07:14

92 days to go gentlemen.

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.

[fillippone]

Another good one from digitalis.net

Does this chart make any sense?

It shows for every day (X axis) how many days before it closed with higher price.

https://twitter.com/digitaliknet/status/1226584183008616450?s=21

Yes, it makes sense to me.
My body is ready.

[fillippone]

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Reward-Drop ETA date: 12 May 2020 06:07:14

92 days to go gentlemen.

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.

Gentle reminder, in case anyone forgot...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Reward-Drop ETA date: 12 May 2020 06:07:14

92 days to go gentlemen.

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.

Gentle reminder, in case anyone forgot...

You never know, some clueless NOCOINERS drop in to annoy us from time to time

[eddie13]

Fuck, I am too drunk to determine who won. At first instance it looks like it was eddie13. Is that right?

P.S.: On other news... WE ALL WON

I believe so. I'm 8 seconds slower. Congratz eddie13

If, after sobriety has been reclaimed, and/or rigorous examination of the photo finish determines me the winner, the address in my profile is good
-redacted-

https://youtu.be/qR7U1HIhxfA <needs a BTC remix..

I suggest addresses be communicated via PM. It makes it all too easy to link user to address (receiver and sender).

Yeah... But in fact the receiver address is indeed eddie13 profile bitcoin address and the sending address is in fact a virgin (no previous history) address I publicly used here to receive the Vegeta prize from LFC and also an address I have "staked" here in the forum.

So both are already completely username linked addresses and should be treated as such with no real need to hide it.

@LFC I hope you don't mind I funded my silly game (and maybe some others in the future) indirectly from your pocket lol
Hey that makes you a sponsor I guess!  

If he would have requested it via PM I would have gladly obliged but other than that I'm not trying to be all anonymous, especially over $10...
It's too late by years for eddie13 to be anon.. I'll go under the radar some day if I feel I need/want to..

[Gyrsur]

I have found the levels. Might be we will see some retracement from dirty shorters. be prepared and #BTFD. #nohomo

Quite mildly.
The median of the daily uptrend channel is at about $9.900 at the time. Let's see if this even gets touched.
EDIT. 4th day above the median line, by the way.

[fillippone]

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Reward-Drop ETA date: 12 May 2020 06:07:14

92 days to go gentlemen.

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.

Gentle reminder, in case anyone forgot...

You never know, some clueless NOCOINERS drop in to annoy us from time to time

Be ready for hordes of nocoiners flooding the gates of Bitcointalk.org when halving and ATH come.

[eddie13]

... yes, this is new ... up to now the narrative was spreads in droplets like the flu. wash hands, cover your mouth when coughing and nose when sneezing keep 6 feet separation, etc, etc. If true every droplet can essentially vapourize and spread in a fine dust-like plume wherever the wind takes it, ie. it's far more contagious than the flu, not just a little bit more.

It also explains why they lock-downed Wuhan on relatively low numbers of cases. And the other cities/regions.

Could be BS though, hope it is.

Wouldn't this imply that their was specific foreknowledge of the virus back when iirc the official narrative was they weren't even sure it was human-human transmissible?

I hope it is BS too, and am leaning towards it being BS, because I have never heard of any other contagion that can be contracted at "hundreds of meters"..

No, it's not unheard of this is why measles is so contagious ... it has R_o ~ 14

It's due to specific property of diameter of the virus, it's survival time outside the body, droplet size it is in solution with (type of fluids and coughing induced), air temperature, humidity, air turbulence, etc, i.e. much physics. Measles can spread from one end of a football stadium to another or linger in the air in a room for up 2 hours after being exhaled by the carrier.

edit: and yes would imply foreknowledge.

https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/409903O/respiratory-protection-against-biohazards.pdf


According to 3m CoV is about .125 uM in size.. so not so small..



Measles Virus Particles
"The sizes of MeV-like particles were distributed
between 50 and 1000 nm and the major distribution peak was found for particles with diameters of
350-400 nm"
https://www.osaka-med.ac.jp/deps/b-omc/articles/532/532daikoku.pdf


350nm=0.350um so measels is about 3X the size of CoV on average?
But possibly some are as small as 0.05um?


"""""
Let's just hope it isn't going to be TEOTWAWKI

[JimboToronto]

ppl group 0: mined/bought at any price --> sold never

I'd rather be on the other groups than taking my coins to my grave.

All that wealth don't mean shit when you are dead. At some point you should want to cash out if not, something isn't right there.

You just don't "cash out" all at once.

You sell bits as needed to pay for the good life, retaining the bulk to perpetuate it.

[jojo69]

I feel fine

[bitserve]

Never sell all your BTC. Even if life requires you to raise cash please try to keep some you can afford to lose for that next parabolic rise in price.

I have always considered you a somewhat conservative (and many times correct) TA analyst. So, let me ask you this question, do you assign a good probability of BTC reaching or even exceeding $100K during the next couple of years? Really would like to know you opinion.

Thank you for the kind words. I have found Fibonacci extensions to be very valuable in projecting price action. Times have changed since the last parabolic rise and history does not have to repeat itself. Bitcoin still reigns with highest market cap and first mover advantage. I give odds about 60% that we will see a new ATH within the next two years and the first Fibonacci extension projection is at $24166.



There are some hurdles to overcome first. Ten grand is a significant first psychological barrier then when that falls and holds on volume we can start thinking about a new ATH. Times have changed and futures on bitcoin may tend to dampen a new parabolic rise. I don't see prices higher than $25000 impossible though, just lower probability over the next year or two.

The next higher Fibonacci extension past 1.27 is the 1.618 at $29,890. I don't think $100,000 is impossible within the next two years, just low probability. I would be happy with steady growth and adoption with real use of the Lightning network. Thirty thousand in three years but I could be too conservative: would be glad to be proven wrong.

Thanks for the info. Yeah, it makes sense and also is in line with your usual conservativeness. Good enough for me even if I do also hope for maybe even higher prices. We will see... "soon"... years pass a lot faster during a bull market

[Olegya199]

Don't get mad at Luc.

He doesn't say it is going go to $6k without any conditions.

He says it will happen if it stays under $11k which is a pretty valid guess imo. I'll buy more tomorrow to help to invalidate this TA. If you want the same thing, you should too.

This thing won't go to $100k by itself, somebody has to buy it from $10k and $20k... $60k... and all the way up to $100k. Believe it or not, Some will even buy it at $100k.

This time BTC is going to $350-$450k so LOTS of peeps are going to jump in at $100k and further up.  

Bruh, I think 350-450k might be a bit ambitious for this cycle. That kind of price will come in 2025 or something a year after the 2024 halving.

Just my opinion but obviously would love you to be right.

Maybe, but I have penciled in $70K-357K range ($350 is at the border, obviously) based on prior stats.
The median of $70-357K is about $213K, which is my best case scenario for the moment.
S2F predicted 6K level for the last cycle, we went about 3-3.5 times that in 2017.
If $100K is the average for the next cycle, then 300-350K is a similar size spike (followed by a 'plunge' to about $50-60k at the local bottom).

I really like your analytics, man! I hope you're a prophet and you will be.

[HairyMaclairy]

You need more than 800 corpses that's for sure..

edit: these numbers comes close to the Tencent leak.





https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777

Anything burning fuel produces SO2, including my truck.  

[Lambie Slayer]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Coronavirus=Govs downplay or lie and print more money to calm markets=Moon

[eddie13]

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

[OutOfMemory]

Anything burning fuel produces SO2, including my truck.  

Traffic and industry about standing still in wuhan, just to remind you...
Still, these calculations are, if source parameters are verified, speculative at best.

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Many of the extrapolation results of 2017's bubble top were between about $40k and$50k iirc.?
Just for comparison, if you know or remember better, please let me know.

[Icygreen]

Sent, I think:

https://blockstream.info/tx/b77a07e67b9cbebc0deaf8b1bcadc27312a71d5bc991933be4ee98635a1c904e

And congrts again!!

Confirmed!
Thank you!

All them long days of manual trading paid off in them quick clicking skills I guess

Indeed. Managing to beat a previous Vegeta winner (Icygreen) by a full 8 seconds is certainly impressive!

Well done. Very well done.

I blame spotty internet of SE Asia 

[Lambie Slayer]

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Yes, 100k is the "Hodler's Guarantee"(confirmed by over 100 twitter accounts intelligence agencies) and the floor for the next moon. The ceiling for moon is probably in the 250-400k range.