Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

I hear SKorea has the most reliable numbers because everyone is getting tested.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So, yeah. A country is a little different from a ship.

[1714855599]

1714855599

[1714855599]

1714855599

[VB1001]

Coronavirus in Israel: Quarantine Ordered for Arrivals From Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and Austria
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-coronavirus-in-israel-over-1-000-high-school-students-put-in-quarantine-1.8627580

Germany bans export of masks and gloves over coronavirus
https://www.thelocal.de/20200304/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-over-coronavirus

[bitebits]

Logic.

Makes no sense to me. You vote on a president or political party because it is the one that aligns most with your political view. You don’t vote on someone because it is the one that is likely going to win.

[Ibian]

Logic.

Makes no sense to me. You vote on a president or political party because it is the one that aligns most with your political view. You don’t vote on someone because it is the one that is likely going to win.

Some people just like to be on the winning side, even if they side has everyone being equally poor.

[gentlemand]

Makes no sense to me. You vote on a president or political party because it is the one that aligns most with your political view. You don’t vote on someone because it is the one that is likely going to win.

The last person I voted for got my vote because she liked driving miniature trains. Anyone who does that for a hobby is clearly qualified to meddle with my future.

[manitou]

2% mortality rate?

Closer to 10%. This is one of the worse examples of misinformation, something really needs to be done about it.

On the cruise ship, I think about 700 got the virus (20%) and 6 of them died.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

706 infected, 600 active cases, 100 recovered, 36 in serious condition, 6 dead. So far.

The way the death rate is being calculated, you could just as easily look at the recovered compared to infected. Only 14% recover from the virus! So a 86% mortality rate!

Ive been trying to get some clarity on the mortality rate and bc you really cant trust even the rich first world democracies and the strong incentive to under test for infections, I cant find any more reliable sample than the Diamond Princess.

Its a perfect lab experiment. A large sample of people, plenty of time for a random and large group to get infected, and we know that all but a dozen or so were tested, whether they had symptoms or not.

There are no other examples of entire towns or villages where everyone was tested to my knowledge. This means that any sample of positive testing patients cant give you a good mortality rate because you have no way of knowing how many others in the vicinity had the virus but showed little to no symptoms.

I realize that its possible a few more could die from Diamond Princess, but imo highly unlikely, they have had plenty of time for the disease to play out according to established time lines. It takes a good while to declare patients recovered because they need as many as three or more tests that come back negative and the virus can leave particles in the body that trigger the test long after symptoms are gone.

So you have 6 out of 700 dead, or a .85% mortality. Thats pretty bad, but way better than many estimates. But....... we are forgetting why that .85% death rate is way to high. Its a cruise ship, this population sample is OLD! The average cruise ship passenger is almost two decades older than the average citizen according to a few quick google searches. Its not scientific, but anyone who has been on a cruise knows that its mostly older people.

So now things start looking a lot better. A ship full of old people passed this thing around and .85% died. Yes about 80 infections were crew members who were likely to be much younger on average. Guess what, not one crew member died.

All this leads me to strongly believe that there is no way in hell the true mortality rate is not somewhere a good bit below .85%. Some quick napkin and SOMA calculations tells me this sample of people with their advanced age, factoring in for the normal age of the 80 crew members, and using the death charts by age data available, extrapolates out to about a .40% mortality rate.

About 4 times deadlier than the flu and enough to overwhelm Wuhan's hospitals once about half a million people got infected in a short span.

A large chunk of the people that will die from this would have probably died in the next 6 months to a year anyway. Its just a strain on hospitals bc usually these people kick the bucket in a drawn out period, not all at once.

Flu season already puts a big strain on ICU beds each year, its not cost effective to have a large oversupply of them.

This strain will be much less in countries where healthcare is more of a free market.

Its easy to see why the commies in China got overrun, they have free healthcare for all which means a shitty healthcare system.

This virus is gonna hurt communist and socialist countries more than free market oriented countries. Thats bullish for Bitcoin.

TLDR: Its just the Flu x 4 bro, and its hella bullish bc money printers are in hysteria right now.

Think that the passengers are getting the better care possible. If the health system of a country colapses, there are people that is going to die bc they can't access to drugs, oxigen, etc. not only coronavirus patients, accidents victims, cancer victims, etc.

[lightfoot]

no fucking way creepy uncle Joe beats Trump

this whole election thing just became decidedly less entertaining

of course, Joe has a pretty high probability of blowing his own foot off in time for a Sanders nomination

Sanders v Trump is the TV show we all deserve

Ladies and Gentlemen!
Boys and Girls!
Biden time's here.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHU6K47qgc8

This will be fun to watch. I wonder if Trump will just order Biden arrested or something like that. Why not?

Also remember: Trump's only support demographic over 50% are those 60 and over. If they all die in a virus outbreak he's in trouble.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

So who else thinks markets (stocks) might be crashing more because of the election than because of corona, with corona just sparking the sell-off?
If Trump somehow did not manage to get re-elected things would be looking pretty bad for the economy.

Not that Sanders would manage to get anything passed that would raise spending by $100 Trillion USD, which by the way is way more than the $83 Trillion of the M3 supply of the entire planet, but he'd still be a significant downgrade that would devastate the markets.

Potential long opportunity come November?

So Bloomberg is out of the race and announced he'll put his weight behind Biden. Biden leading massively in delegates against Bernie now.

The same moment this happened the stock market saw its largest one day surge since 2009.

Didn't expect things to move this quickly, but seems like corona didn't matter much after all considering the number of cases has been blowing up.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

It's not a pendulum, it's a cycle. It can't restart before it has either completed or a specific type of event happens that resets it. The "pendulum" does not simply stop at the halfway point and then go in the other direction.

It kind of does. It swings one way until it can't anymore, gradually slows down to zero, reverses its direction and repeats the same action but mirrored, then it resets and begins a new cycle.

It's the same thing, in some sense. If you project circular motion onto any straight line coplanar with the circle, you get harmonic (pendulum) motion.

Yes, but a pendulum swings through the same space. A pendulum could not have been described with the four pictures someone posted recently.

He's right. Circular and pendulum motion have the same equations of motion too.

Also, what pictures are you talking about?

[Ibian]

It's not a pendulum, it's a cycle. It can't restart before it has either completed or a specific type of event happens that resets it. The "pendulum" does not simply stop at the halfway point and then go in the other direction.

It kind of does. It swings one way until it can't anymore, gradually slows down to zero, reverses its direction and repeats the same action but mirrored, then it resets and begins a new cycle.

It's the same thing, in some sense. If you project circular motion onto any straight line coplanar with the circle, you get harmonic (pendulum) motion.

Yes, but a pendulum swings through the same space. A pendulum could not have been described with the four pictures someone posted recently.

He's right. Circular and pendulum motion have the same equations of motion too.

Also, what pictures are you talking about?

"hes right what are you talking about". I'm beginning to think the whole professional mathematician aspect is limiting you.

[lightfoot]

Sanders might energize millennial voters in unprecedented numbers.

Or, perhaps, it turns out as you say, a good spanking and reality check might serve to shut them up somewhat.

Only one way to find out.

Political rule #1: Young voters are *worthless*

From John "There is a difference" Anderson all they way forward to Stein and Nader the votes of the young are a waste of time. They make a lot of noise, but when the time comes to vote they stay home because

"Bush and Gore are the same"
"Hillary and Trump are the same"
Etc etc back to history.

The only young voters who made a difference were Boomers: And they went for Regan in 80, bigly in 84, Bush in 88, Bush II in 2000/2004 and Trump in 2016.

[lightfoot]

Didn't expect things to move this quickly, but seems like corona didn't matter much after all considering the number of cases has been blowing up.

Interesting. Let's see if this pattern holds.

[jojo69]

[Phil_S]

Sanders might have done ok if he didn't refer to himself as a socialist.

Times change...

These days Democrats are ok with socialism.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

It's not a pendulum, it's a cycle. It can't restart before it has either completed or a specific type of event happens that resets it. The "pendulum" does not simply stop at the halfway point and then go in the other direction.

It kind of does. It swings one way until it can't anymore, gradually slows down to zero, reverses its direction and repeats the same action but mirrored, then it resets and begins a new cycle.

It's the same thing, in some sense. If you project circular motion onto any straight line coplanar with the circle, you get harmonic (pendulum) motion.

Yes, but a pendulum swings through the same space. A pendulum could not have been described with the four pictures someone posted recently.

He's right. Circular and pendulum motion have the same equations of motion too.

Also, what pictures are you talking about?

"hes right what are you talking about". I'm beginning to think the whole professional mathematician aspect is limiting you.

I might've agreed with the angle if I hadn't asked about the pictures that you've mentioned.

The post was divided into two parts. One about confirming what he's saying, so you could perhaps get another perspective that you might not have had previously. Which last I checked communication was about spreading ideas.
The other part was about trying to figure out your perspective by asking for the pictures.

[VB1001]

https://newsfeeds.media/worried-commuters-are-wearing-plastic-bags-storage-containers-and-gas-masks-to-avoid-coronavirus/

[OutOfMemory]

It's not a pendulum, it's a cycle. It can't restart before it has either completed or a specific type of event happens that resets it. The "pendulum" does not simply stop at the halfway point and then go in the other direction.

It kind of does. It swings one way until it can't anymore, gradually slows down to zero, reverses its direction and repeats the same action but mirrored, then it resets and begins a new cycle.

It's the same thing, in some sense. If you project circular motion onto any straight line coplanar with the circle, you get harmonic (pendulum) motion.

Thanks. This was what i was trying to say by "looking at the circle sideways" before, but you explained it about 99% better 

[kurious]

no fucking way creepy uncle Joe beats Trump

this whole election thing just became decidedly less entertaining

of course, Joe has a pretty high probability of blowing his own foot off in time for a Sanders nomination

Sanders v Trump is the TV show we all deserve

Biden's rally seems to me to have come because of the Dem establishment rallying to stop Bernie more than much else. Maybe they fear Bernie won't be dishing out jobs for the boys like Biden would. 

I am not stateside, so what do I know... but personally I really would love to see Bernie vs Trump, too.  At least Bernie could land a few on Trump. He appears to have a functioning intellect at least - without the of the personality of a thin-skinned five-year-old.

[OutOfMemory]

no fucking way creepy uncle Joe beats Trump

this whole election thing just became decidedly less entertaining

of course, Joe has a pretty high probability of blowing his own foot off in time for a Sanders nomination

Sanders v Trump is the TV show we all deserve

Biden's rally seems to me to have come because of the Dem establishment rallying to stop Bernie more than much else. Maybe they fear Bernie won't be dishing out jobs for the boys like Biden would. 

I am not stateside, so what do I know... but personally I really would love to see Bernie vs Trump, too.  At least Bernie could land a few on Trump. He appears to have a functioning intellect at least - without the of the personality of a thin-skinned five-year-old.

Isn't that kind of the same thing like hillary vs. bernie was?

[gentlemand]

Isn't that kind of the same thing like hillary vs. bernie was?

Hilary is an establishment zombie just like Biden. We'll see whether America gets battered economically and medically up until the election but Trump probably has it in the bag already.