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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25816056 times)
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February 16, 2020, 02:47:36 AM

Watch how ez that dip gets bought up in BTCull $eason.
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February 16, 2020, 02:54:36 AM

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February 16, 2020, 03:18:28 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

^

I didn't want to say it (the actual BTC count) but Searing himself did it again... With almost 100BTC he still have, no one can dare to say he did not do well. He just secured some profits when he thought he would MAYBE need the FIAT to last till retirement payments come. A somewhat small (around 10%) percentual amount. And probably that made him be a stronger holder with the rest of his more than healthy stash.

So, considering it all, he is way far from being a "bottom seller" but a strong hodler... even if he did sell "some" near the bottom.

Again, what changed is I am in charge of an estate for future trust etc. The IRS does NOT like passing such $$$ on to future generations in the family. So basically I get a %

a month for NOT running off (as IRS expects) and blowing it on hookers and blow ... the estate remains more or less at the same price base to generate interest and grow
 
into the next generation. So for my 'modest' needs (I worked for 30 years with the dev disabled and deaf-blind) and no debts, it comes down to...meh.....my needs are being met

and I'm bored. So yeah the pressure is off to sell BTC/Crypto now (except dubious coins and when to sell dubious sh*tcoins and forks)...So you are correct. Modest lifestyle-wise (ie boring)

I can likely live to 200 on the monthly take. Sometimes it just pays to be dumb and lucky. Smiley

So indeed the 13 BTC did go to the last 1.5 years of lifestyle (now I'm 8.5 BTC down heh) Smiley But I can HODL at the

same lifestyle and have the monthly income to put some 'dust' into BTC and thus whine about stuff on here...again...retired and bored..so wtf....it is what it is.

My situation has changed and tossing more $$$ in my lifestyle at such is not gonna fix much.

So I can afford to HODL more so now than in the recent past. Of course, IF the next recession comes, or should I say IF not when, and I am

expecting a good 30-40% recession, with some pundits saying it will be 12 years rather than 7 years to come back from such. My views may change if my traditional investments

really tank.

Thus the good old (hopeful) HODL mode of 'Plan B' (and portfolio with stocks setup to 'maintain' rather than grow at my age of 65 years) I should be just 'dandy'.

Again, thus my 'bravery'. Smiley Circumstances changed. I sure do miss ASIC mining though, but current tariff, difficulty on any crypto, and big miners and 10c kWh electric costs
to
have really sucked the 'fun' out of that. So alas, 'attic mining' sales to eBay than to BTC and rinse/wash/repeat for dust is going to have to be entertainment enough for now.

It is not like my 100 BTC (now 91.5 BTC) is a big secret....in 2013..it was considered 'small potatoes' at $150 BTC. Everyone knew everyone's stash back then..big whoop!

But yeah, I have little risk in HODL'ing...even if price did drop 1/3 and I dumped....it all is still a win as all 'evolved' from a KNC Jupiter 550gh miner in 2013 that cost me

$5,131.80. It is not like 'any' money from my modest dev disabled deaf-blind job went into the BTC business for electric or whatever..so again, the risk to me is non-existent.

No matter how bad this all gets, I will always show a profit. It can be debated on IF I HODL too long or IF I SOLD too soon or any % thereof....but I can afford this modest risk.

when you consider the source of all the wrangling/LTC to BTC/Altcoin ASIC mining to BTC and other shenanigans I did to eventually accumulate my BTC is all based on

that first piece of equipment to generate/wrangle current hoard...well sh*t...what I'm stating is here everyone needs to get to a place of 'excess' in their own minds on BTC/Crypto

on what they can accumulate and HODL IMHO. Again, in my previous messages, I claim a 1/3 chance of BTC/Crypto going parabolic again. What if BTC goes to 50K? How prepared

are you to risk some to get much and of course the chance of the risking some and losing all? The scary point is what if we all are still in the early stage of BTC use and price?

What is MORE interesting to me is if I would have done sh*t in 2015 and just stayed in HODL mode, I'd be almost even with all the mining of BTC

and re-investing BTC into ASIC equipment and the rest, sure, it worked a bit better, but hardly worth just having the BTC sit around and have BCH and

BSV falls out of the sky on to my BTC addresses. So with my mining of 'dubious' Altcoins, from what I figure in actual BTC combining such, even with forked coins, I'd end up pretty

much in the same boat.

My point is there is a lot of 'running about' here and there in BTC/Crypto....only thing that makes sense to me is HODL and hope it does go parabolic. I tell people to get some 'dust'

for small risk and hopefully from now the same big or bigger rewards, I have gotten since 2013. Again, I expect the next recession to be a doozy.....some of that determines my

actions as well.

But 20/20 hindsight was a lot of frigging work mining, to end up in the same place as just sitting on hands in 2015 in full HODL mode.

Also, remember some of what I post is in storytelling mode ie...don't do what I did kinda thing if I can't laugh at my panic sell (not kidding about the 9-year-old yelling and

some tears selling at $3,965) well what fun is being on here sharing stuff.

As they say, BTC/Crypto is in the long-term a win/no-win scenario. I am at an age 65 years that maybe

I have 25 years left and will be grabbing cute female nursing home aides asses and croak falling out of my wheelchair from the excitement. So risk, meh!

Also, if you live long enough, the only currency in a Nursing Home is stories. You got a robe/toothbrush/shaver/slippers and rich as hell or not it is all the same.

The only currency is stories. Thus BTC works...great story....BTC dumps....sad story...rich as hell or poor as hell ..if you live long enough that is how it shakes out.

So...I suppose...I could blow a lot of my stash in the future. I have to have a real 'reason' above the lifestyle I have now. I don't need to pass money down...my relatives

younger than me are set. I'm single. No debt. So again, circumstances are such where this 'risk' people talk about with me is all about how much 'profit' me or my heirs

could come away with, in reality. I likely won't need to touch such. So I will either be praised for HODL'ing too long or damn'd for selling too soon. But again, in

the great scheme of things at my age...I'm trying to make everything an adventure..and whatever happens with BTC/Crypto it has been a 'hell' of a lot of fun since I started

in 2013. So for now, letting it ride and using 'attic mining' to clean out the stuff in the attic for cash to go into BTC dust for stuff to do.

Again, some of this is with what I tell is tongue in cheek....like for example when LTC was worth $1.80 and I was selling for BTC and I mined 12,969 of them....yeah..we

start talking about 'missed boats' and it is a whole nother thread......or looking at ETH page on ICO and at what was it $300 BTC too cheap to buy 1,000 for 1 BTC in the ICO.

I've been left at the dock more times at my 'ship that was supposed to come in' than a girl in trouble waving at the ships at sea wondering if someone will see me.

So yeah, you are correct, Chump or Champ or Boom or Doom....I can afford to take more risks that may be prudent for anyone else or indeed even myself...but retirement

and boredom are dangerous things..thus the attic mining for dust endeavors Smiley

Good to have goals. Smiley

Brad
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February 16, 2020, 03:25:43 AM
Last edit: February 16, 2020, 03:42:57 AM by Searing
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl.

his words

I get the impression that he is perhaps an older gentleman, I can see the allure of getting "something" out faced with the prospect of getting "nothing" out or waiting till you are old-as-fuck...

I am in absolutely no position to judge, having abjectly failed to harvest any benefit from the last bubble.  I actually typed "parabolic-er-er-er" at one point yet failed to sell due to greedfear.

The Mayor and I, leaning against each other sweating, horking into our NASA logo barf bags, hodling resolutely through the peak...

Emotions man, strong stuff.

You can't laugh at yourself what fun is there..but yeah watching $150 BTC at 1 BTC a day when I started mining Oct 18th, 2013 through the ATH and then the dump to $3,965...

yep, I cracked like an egg...but then again, at that point in time I did NEED the crypto to get me to 66 years and 2 months soc security and traditional investments...things

changed as in the previous post and I have traditional investment $$$ monthly now (that hell could really get hit in the future) so braver....but it is all about risk and reward

and again, having modest lifestyle all these years, except for the occasional toy or trip, when you do get $$$ for whatever reason the LAST thing you want is to raise your

spending lifestyle to what you think you need to be happy etc. That's a trap indeed. So again, from previous posts, my circumstances are right now ideal for HODL'ing due

to the above change in circumstances and my age of 65 and my retirement...and such. What do they say in the ads on T.V. 'conditions my a vary, not for everyone' Smiley

Brad


Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl.

his words

I get the impression that he is perhaps an older gentleman, I can see the allure of getting "something" out faced with the prospect of getting "nothing" out

My way of thinking is that, if the following things are true:

1. You only invest what you can afford to lose,
2. Your quality of life is already at a decent level,
3. You understand Bitcoin tech,
4. You are not greedy,

...then you don't panic easily. You can HoDL down to even under $1k and not flinch. "Let it go to zero. I'm already doing OK, I don't really need it." That's what I say to myself when there's a big dip, and that's because of (1), (2), and (4). And if there's a big dip, I try to buy more coins, because of (3), but always respecting (1).

If you get scared easily and chicken out at big dips, you're doing it wrong.

Yep, this is true above "He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl."

"Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?"

Yep on the above....all them pesky 'real-life circumstances' below


Well, since HODL mode, except for mining and electricity and equipment, etc....I managed to HODL through it all from 2013 until 12/24/18 I dumped the 13 BTC.

But at that time (see previous posts) I had retired at 62 years at the ATH and was living off income from crypto until 66 years and 2 months and then I would
crypt
tap into my previous traditional investments at that point. Thus 30 years working with dev disabled/house paid no debt lifestyle...switches to crypto carry over

which I thought I had 3 years of altcoins to cover such ..burnt through that in 9 months with the dump/crash...again same lifestyle then without crypto and

66 years 2 months soc sec and traditional 'balanced' investments at my 65 years of age...again the same lifestyle. So again, retired with no change in money

or lifestyle or what I thought. So dumped the 13 BTC to get through next year or so with altcoins till 66 years and 2 months plan. ie thus panic and sold 13 BTC.

(hey, I only ran in the battle that one time..jeez). So my one great dump of any kind from HODL mode since 2013 and 13 BTC and dumping at the low was based

on panic and circumstances...I really, really was not gonna go back to work for another 1.5 to 2 years so yeah...I dumped 13 BTC indeed and assorted altcoins (at

least they were at the high compared to now)

Then as previous posts state had change in circumstances and monthly income improvement middle of 2019 ...thus the 13 BTC panic sale though understandable

was an overreaction..or not ..without the change in circumstances monthly improvement addition the 13 BTC had to go..since that no longer applies and such

I managed to worm back 4.5 BTC of the original 13 BTC sold in 2019 till now. So any way you are correct the panic did not come out of the blue, real-life pressures

did indeed cause me to panic sell, but one does not at the beginning of 2018 at ATH expect an 85% dump in BTC price and 95% dump in altcoins or whatever the %

ugly that it was. Anyway, circumstances have changed, discretionary money into my traditional investments does not seem prudent at this time, I expect a recession

thus HODL of crypto is probably a better bet now than it was even at these prices in 2018 given the current real-life and world financial health circumstances IMHO. Smiley

but what do I now... I panic sold 13 BTC at $3,965 USD...much angst...alas, lost the faith...a lapse in kool-aide drinking refreshment.

later

Brad
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February 16, 2020, 03:32:56 AM



Currently, playing 'when to buy into more BTC game'...thinking I'll wait for a 'weekend weak dump' maybe?

Those currently who know my 'track record' on timing such, be sure to adjust your purchases accordingly, so you can

'mock' my 'timing' later.

(Hey, the wrong price at the wrong time is how I roll. On the other hand, if you HODL long enough ..it does not matter) Smiley

Brad

Well, I recall that you were selling items from your attic, and so you bought some BTC in parts of 2019 with that generated extra money.  

What is the source of the extra money that you have this time?  

Is it just extra savings that you have accumulated from your regular income over the past year or so?  

You did not want to buy BTC with that money earlier in 2019 as that money was coming in, but now, after BTC has gone up about 60% over the past two months you want to buy more BTC with that extra money that had been flowing in through the year?  The upwards BTC price movement, currently, is causing you to feel that you are underinvested in BTC because you are thinking that you might be able to get rich quick.. over the next 1-2 years?

I am not going to say that you are going to be wrong in that kind of 1-2 year period, even if it is unclear about whether you will benefit in the short run or have better buying opportunities in the coming weeks or months before the halvening.

These days, I prefer to think about any new money that goes into bitcoin to have at least a 4 year investment time horizon.  Of course, no problem if BTC


go shooting up from here, so then you would not have to stick with the 4 year investment time horizon thinking because once your injection of value is in profits you have options to pull it out at any time, but anyhow, since you and I should be in a similar position regarding having had already largely accumulated most of our BTC,  it seems strange to me that someone who had already largely accumulated in the 3 digits would be experiencing any kind of meaningful FOMO feelings after about a 60% BTC price appreciation in the past two months, not withstanding any inclination just to do a bit of dollar cost averaging investing from time to time, as money comes in, as heslo's above response suggests.

Caretaker for the estate. Money passes to me, I get some each month from the estate, I then watch manger of the estate and keep majority to pass on to nieces and nephews..that kinda

thing. The whole get around IRS thing using estate planning. Thus enough monthly income, that the crypto is not needed in retirement anymore. Or at least till we have another recession

or some such, thus the Bitcoin buying and the long HODL bet on such.

Also, attic mining! Smiley

I should call the nieces and nephews as I look at all the junk I likely can't toss (worth something) but likely will die the attic/storage. Thus call them up and say, "Come and

get YOUR crap out of my attic!" That would be the logical solution on stuff I'll likely hoard till then anyway. They inherit it then. Just do so now! They can sell it on eBay!

Just move the process up a little bit. That or me sell on eBay. (so boring to do).

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

I was pleased with sell when it went down to like to a low of $3,400 per BTC then. Er, now, not so much Sad But 4 BTC back is better than the full 13 BTC down from that sell!

So anyway only 9 BTC down from original scream like a 9-year-old girl sobbing sale back then. Thus I HODL for less drama now. Smiley

I also can't let go of the fact that IF BTC and decentralized crypto dies on the vine and is taken over by banks (the blockchain) and such...I don't imagine fees for banks will go down..even

though for every fee still would be the top 1/2 of 1% or whatever usual $$$ ripoff.

With that kind of centralized control of crypto along with the current banking and finance system still in place it

is hard to imagine a world NOT full of Banker/Elite Trillionaires..in about 10-15 years. This assumes IF like that 1 BTC whale and you can move 1 billion in BTC for $26 bucks.

Imagine banks and the current elite controlling all that centralized blockchain coin but still getting current legacy fees like traditional banks on such.

Give that 100 years and we'd be under Royalty and everyone would be 'serfs' and onward and upward into feudalism again, IMHO. It would be bad indeed.

I'm 65 years old. I maybe, if extremely lucky, live another 25 years and be 'pinching' cute nursing aides in the Nursing Home, by that point in time.

So WTF, take a chance and HODL already. I may NEVER get that full 13 BTC back that I am currently down 9 BTC...but I'm trying to nibble it away.

I SHOULD dump my sh*tcoins and BSV and BCH, that fell from the sky on their forks and make the last 9-12 BTC up that way. But currently confused

with those sh*tcoins all pumping, big time! Some of which like LISK and SIACOIN I'm utterly befuddled on. But that is the other option of my plan to 'recover' those

last 9 BTC. But in 20/20 hindsight, indeed $3,400 coin was dire, so I should pat myself on back and that I only sold 13 BTC.  So 9 BTC to go till recovery. Smiley

Knock Wood! I am buying dust here now that it is under 10k again, so it seems the BTC flavored kool-aid drinking I did in 2013 still has some magical effect. Smiley

later

Brad


Well, yes, it is good that you have some extra income, but I really believe that there should not be any major concern to replace the 9 BTC that you sold (and were not able to make up), especially if BTC prices go anywhere close to fulfilling any of the price prediction models, such as stock to flow or the four year fractal model, so you could cash out 4-6% of your BTC stash per year in the coming 25 years (that is if you can live that long) and probably still end up with a decent BTC stash at the end of your life.. and have plenty of extra cash flow from the BTC along the way too.

Of course, if BTC prices end up tanking and not really going up anymore, then your cashing out approach might need to be a bit more conservative, but you still have a decent stash to work with.  There are plenty of folks who are still striving to get somewhere in the 10 BTC to 20BTC arena, so even if you are aggressively cashing out in the coming 10 to 20 years or so, you will still likely have more than 20 BTC at the end of the period.. or at least maybe somewhere in the 10 BTC to 20 BTC arena after cashing out the others at decent prices along the way.

Another thing is that your costs per BTC are well below the $1k per BTC amount, so you have decent profits on each BTC, too, even if BTC prices were to perform a bit more mediocre than the bullish price prediction models are projecting.
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February 16, 2020, 03:39:11 AM
Last edit: February 16, 2020, 05:18:58 AM by JayJuanGee

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl.

his words

I get the impression that he is perhaps an older gentleman, I can see the allure of getting "something" out faced with the prospect of getting "nothing" out or waiting till you are old-as-fuck...

I am in absolutely no position to judge, having abjectly failed to harvest any benefit from the last bubble.  I actually typed "parabolic-er-er-er" at one point yet failed to sell due to greedfear.

The Mayor and I, leaning against each other sweating, horking into our NASA logo barf bags, hodling resolutely through the peak...

Emotions man, strong stuff.

Seems as if you largely held through the whole thing from the top of the late 2017 price rise to present, Jojo......

I am, not sure if you bought more  BTC during the 2018 and 2019 lower prices, but if you largely held your BTC through that whole period, you are not in a bad position, right now.  Bitcoin is 10x higher in price than it was in the beginning of 2017 (a little more than 3 years), and that is not a bad thing.

Sure, profits on paper are not anything to laugh about, but historically we have seen that losses on paper, are not really A BIG DEAL either, especially in bitcoin, as long as the BTC investor has been able to hold onto his/her coins for 4 years or more.  
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February 16, 2020, 03:55:29 AM



Currently, playing 'when to buy into more BTC game'...thinking I'll wait for a 'weekend weak dump' maybe?

Those currently who know my 'track record' on timing such, be sure to adjust your purchases accordingly, so you can

'mock' my 'timing' later.

(Hey, the wrong price at the wrong time is how I roll. On the other hand, if you HODL long enough ..it does not matter) Smiley

Brad

Well, I recall that you were selling items from your attic, and so you bought some BTC in parts of 2019 with that generated extra money.  

What is the source of the extra money that you have this time?  

Is it just extra savings that you have accumulated from your regular income over the past year or so?  

You did not want to buy BTC with that money earlier in 2019 as that money was coming in, but now, after BTC has gone up about 60% over the past two months you want to buy more BTC with that extra money that had been flowing in through the year?  The upwards BTC price movement, currently, is causing you to feel that you are underinvested in BTC because you are thinking that you might be able to get rich quick.. over the next 1-2 years?

I am not going to say that you are going to be wrong in that kind of 1-2 year period, even if it is unclear about whether you will benefit in the short run or have better buying opportunities in the coming weeks or months before the halvening.

These days, I prefer to think about any new money that goes into bitcoin to have at least a 4 year investment time horizon.  Of course, no problem if BTC


go shooting up from here, so then you would not have to stick with the 4 year investment time horizon thinking because once your injection of value is in profits you have options to pull it out at any time, but anyhow, since you and I should be in a similar position regarding having had already largely accumulated most of our BTC,  it seems strange to me that someone who had already largely accumulated in the 3 digits would be experiencing any kind of meaningful FOMO feelings after about a 60% BTC price appreciation in the past two months, not withstanding any inclination just to do a bit of dollar cost averaging investing from time to time, as money comes in, as heslo's above response suggests.

Caretaker for the estate. Money passes to me, I get some each month from the estate, I then watch manger of the estate and keep majority to pass on to nieces and nephews..that kinda

thing. The whole get around IRS thing using estate planning. Thus enough monthly income, that the crypto is not needed in retirement anymore. Or at least till we have another recession

or some such, thus the Bitcoin buying and the long HODL bet on such.

Also, attic mining! Smiley

I should call the nieces and nephews as I look at all the junk I likely can't toss (worth something) but likely will die the attic/storage. Thus call them up and say, "Come and

get YOUR crap out of my attic!" That would be the logical solution on stuff I'll likely hoard till then anyway. They inherit it then. Just do so now! They can sell it on eBay!

Just move the process up a little bit. That or me sell on eBay. (so boring to do).

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

I was pleased with sell when it went down to like to a low of $3,400 per BTC then. Er, now, not so much Sad But 4 BTC back is better than the full 13 BTC down from that sell!

So anyway only 9 BTC down from original scream like a 9-year-old girl sobbing sale back then. Thus I HODL for less drama now. Smiley

I also can't let go of the fact that IF BTC and decentralized crypto dies on the vine and is taken over by banks (the blockchain) and such...I don't imagine fees for banks will go down..even

though for every fee still would be the top 1/2 of 1% or whatever usual $$$ ripoff.

With that kind of centralized control of crypto along with the current banking and finance system still in place it

is hard to imagine a world NOT full of Banker/Elite Trillionaires..in about 10-15 years. This assumes IF like that 1 BTC whale and you can move 1 billion in BTC for $26 bucks.

Imagine banks and the current elite controlling all that centralized blockchain coin but still getting current legacy fees like traditional banks on such.

Give that 100 years and we'd be under Royalty and everyone would be 'serfs' and onward and upward into feudalism again, IMHO. It would be bad indeed.

I'm 65 years old. I maybe, if extremely lucky, live another 25 years and be 'pinching' cute nursing aides in the Nursing Home, by that point in time.

So WTF, take a chance and HODL already. I may NEVER get that full 13 BTC back that I am currently down 9 BTC...but I'm trying to nibble it away.

I SHOULD dump my sh*tcoins and BSV and BCH, that fell from the sky on their forks and make the last 9-12 BTC up that way. But currently confused

with those sh*tcoins all pumping, big time! Some of which like LISK and SIACOIN I'm utterly befuddled on. But that is the other option of my plan to 'recover' those

last 9 BTC. But in 20/20 hindsight, indeed $3,400 coin was dire, so I should pat myself on back and that I only sold 13 BTC.  So 9 BTC to go till recovery. Smiley

Knock Wood! I am buying dust here now that it is under 10k again, so it seems the BTC flavored kool-aid drinking I did in 2013 still has some magical effect. Smiley

later

Brad


Well, yes, it is good that you have some extra income, but I really believe that there should not be any major concern to replace the 9 BTC that you sold (and were not able to make up), especially if BTC prices go anywhere close to fulfilling any of the price prediction models, such as stock to flow or the four year fractal model, so you could cash out 4-6% of your BTC stash per year in the coming 25 years (that is if you can live that long) and probably still end up with a decent BTC stash at the end of your life.. and have plenty of extra cash flow from the BTC along the way too.

Of course, if BTC prices end up tanking and not really going up anymore, then your cashing out approach might need to be a bit more conservative, but you still have a decent stash to work with.  There are plenty of folks who are still striving to get somewhere in the 10 BTC to 20BTC arena, so even if you are aggressively cashing out in the coming 10 to 20 years or so, you will still likely have more than 20 BTC at the end of the period.. or at least maybe somewhere in the 10 BTC to 20 BTC arena after cashing out the others at decent prices along the way.

Another thing is that your costs per BTC are well below the $1k per BTC amount, so you have decent profits on each BTC, too, even if BTC prices were to perform a bit more mediocre than the bullish price prediction models are projecting.

Yeah I agree, in my post, since this reply above...you can see I have little to lose and currently I am bored...somewhat...so it is a modest goal the 8.5 BTC I'd like to recover yet..and

trying to use it as a lever to clean attic out on eBay sales to BTC. So I am in a 'hugely' better position to be in  'dubious' HODL mode now..even if it is just to add some dust back to

the panic sell of me being now only 8.5 BTC down. But indeed that was my FIRST real panic dump of any BTC since 2013...or ever for that matter....sure I ran through altcoins from mining

for early retirement etc..but, it kinda was I had to dump the BTC also with altcoins or go back to work.

Sh*ty choice waited too long, panic'd for that real-life money, yech!

What BTC was on Jan 18th, 2018 and close to ATH and me saying looks good for retirement prices and end of year $3,965 BTC prices..well ...ugly is being kind as

a statement...but circumstances have changed from the middle of 2019....so 4.5 BTC back in the HODL hoard is a win IMHO.

Only 8.5 BTC is a fun self-deprecating goal for all of you on WO following my 'dubious' antics and a lesson on NOT to panic like a small 9-year-old girl in such circumstances,

even though the  panic sell was for real-life issues and probably justifiable with the massive dump in BTC and Crypto prices I was relying on for retirement at least until 66yrs 2months

and not go back to work (shudder) for 1.5 to 2 years till that full retirement) Sad

Although you could easily make the case I should be blowing a % of my BTC/Crypto on women of easy virtue and of dubious moral character (ie Golddigger) Smiley

..but alas, that has not come up yet to tempt me to dump BTC/Crypto now. (Damn it!) Sad

Brad
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February 16, 2020, 04:15:09 AM
Last edit: February 16, 2020, 04:30:48 AM by Biodom

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.
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February 16, 2020, 04:15:19 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator
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February 16, 2020, 04:38:34 AM

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
...

I don't do particularly well with too much unstructured time.
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February 16, 2020, 04:45:08 AM
Last edit: February 16, 2020, 04:47:46 PM by bitebits
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

25x your yearly spendings, according to the 4% Safe Withdrawel Rule.
If you like some more safety margin with only 3.33%: 30x

The above numbers however do require you to diversify in investments generating income, like stocks / bonds / real estate / etc. In case you like to keep some bitcoins, the math changes.
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February 16, 2020, 04:45:20 AM
Last edit: February 16, 2020, 07:23:34 PM by Searing

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

When at around ATH I dumped full time job = retirement is what I thought altcoins could cover for 2.5 years (9 months) = what traditional investments and soc sec and medicare could cover at 66 years and 2 months...that whole 85% BTC dump and 95% or some such altcoin dump hurt big time till circumstances changed and these last 1.5 years not living on crypto in between anymore.

So to me same lifestyle (seemed like a good bet) for retirement 3.5 years early...seemed the way to go.

(20/20 hindsight you merciless bitch!) Smiley

Brad
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February 16, 2020, 04:50:54 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2), fillippone (2), Biodom (1), JSRAW (1)

[edited out]
Yeah I agree, in my post, since this reply above...you can see I have little to lose and currently I am bored...somewhat...so it is a modest goal the 8.5 BTC I'd like to recover yet..and trying to use it as a lever to clean attic out on eBay sales to BTC. So I am in a 'hugely' better position to be in  'dubious' HODL mode now..even if it is just to add some dust back to the panic sell of me being now only 8.5 BTC down. But indeed that was my FIRST real panic dump of any BTC since 2013...or ever for that matter....sure I ran through altcoins from mining for early retirement etc..but, it kinda was I had to dump the BTC also with altcoins or go back to work.

Sh*ty choice waited too long, panic'd for that real-life money, yech!

Ultimately, you have to decide for yourself what you want to do.  Personally, I think that it is a pretty BIG ASS waste of time to become too preoccupied with attempting to make up 8.5 BTC or whatever the artificial goal of 100BTC that you are trying to make.  Having 100BTC is too fucking arbitrary, especially for a guy who is 65 years old and may or may not live another 25 years.  To me it seems that having 100BTC just does not matter.

The more important consideration is just figuring out where you are at and I really think that you are no longer in accumulation mode, but instead either in maintenance mode or liquidation mode, which means that you can just decide the amount that you are willing to liquidate each year, and if it remains a possibility that you could panic sell again, then you should just figure out how much is the maximum that you are going to permit yourself to sell each year.. whether it is between 4% and 6% or if you choose some other amount that you believe works for yourself.

You have already suffered from what could happen if you do NOT liquidate enough, which is you end up panic selling.  So to avoid that, it is good to just periodically sell a small portion that fits within guidelines that you choose ahead of time, and likely between 4% and 6% could work... and also maybe you need to consider whether you are ready to start right now, or not.  Regarding using some of your extra cashflow to buy BTC  or to get to your artificial goal of 100BTC, fuck that shit.  Just keep that money in cash, and if the BTC price happens to drop, then just use it to buy small amounts on the way down, otherwise don't fucking worry about trying to get to some artificial goal because it is causing you to overly obsess on that number and then to overly invest in such a way that it is nearly inevitable that you are going to cause yourself another possible panic situation - because we know that King Daddy bitcoin has these tendencies to overshoot in various directions, and sure it is better if it is overshooting in the upwards direction, but it cannot be guaranteed to overshoot in the upwards direction.   

What BTC was on Jan 18th, 2018 and close to ATH and me saying looks good for retirement prices and end of year $3,965 BTC prices..well ...ugly is being kind as a statement...but circumstances have changed from the middle of 2019....so 4.5 BTC back in the HODL hoard is a win IMHO.

Yeah, overall it seems that you did good to recover some of the amount that you sold, and by the way, BTC prices did go down to $3,124 in December of 2018... so when you sold, you did provide yourself with some insurance during that period.. and insurance is not free, and also hindsight might be 20/20.. but we cannot be kicking ourselves for better ways that we might have played the matter, but instead hopefully learning from the situation in order to figure out if there are ways that we could currently tweak our approach in order to become a bit more comfortable with where we are currently at... including being prepared for either BTC price direction on an ongoing basis.

Only 8.5 BTC is a fun self-deprecating goal for all of you on WO following my 'dubious' antics and a lesson on NOT to panic like a small 9-year-old girl in such circumstances, even though the panic sell was for real-life issues and probably justifiable with the massive dump in BTC and Crypto prices I was relying on for retirement at least until 66yrs 2months and not go back to work (shudder) for 1.5 to 2 years till that full retirement) Sad

I am not going to say that you did the wrong thing.


Although you could easily make the case I should be blowing a % of my BTC/Crypto on women of easy virtue and of dubious moral character (ie Golddigger) Smiley

..but alas, that has not come up yet to tempt me to dump BTC/Crypto now. (Damn it!) Sad

Brad


The hookers, lambos and blow part is up to you, and surely it is good to make sure that your investment situation is stabilized before going too much down the consumption rabbit hole.  At the same time, it does not hurt to have some consumption and pleasure budget, especially if you already have various aspects of your investment in decent shape and order.

Sometimes, also, you are going to have a bit of excess of wealth that is building up (and BTC can contribute towards causing that), and in those circumstances, it surely does not hurt to step up the standard of living a bit.  Does not need to be BIG stepping ups, but incrementally stepping up the standard of living can be a good thing.

Sometimes there can be ways to reasonably include expensive chick kinds of expenses into your budget, as long as you are largely calling the shots rather than letting some cute and manipulative chick trick you out of your BTC and other assets more quickly than you would prefer. 

If one, two or 10 chicks slowly milk you out of a decent proportion of your excess BTC over 25 years and such ongoing serial milkenings gives you a lot of pleasure along the way, then it may be well worth the time and money that is spent on such... as long as you are figuring out a way to balance it, too.    Yeah, if you are not used to it, then you surely don't want to jump in too quickly...

Don't get me wrong, I have not paid directly for the company of cuties in any kind of transactional kind of way, but sometimes I have been in relationships in which I have been engaging in expensive consumptive activities including going on trips and going out to eat at nice places (of my choice of course), and spending a decent amount of extra money to wine, dine and travel in various circumstances, so those extra expenses are likely to have taken away from some of my investing in BTC or even preserving my BTC stash, but there are still ways to step up your level of consumption in incremental ways that you can handle and control, and the amount of pleasure can be quite good too..

it can be considered as the whole hookers, lambos and blow idea that is the aspiration that is a bit of an exaggeration, because you might not just jump straight into such increases in luxury... but instead transition into some of those kinds of excesses, and I don't think it is a bad thing to perhaps transition into some excesses in consumption as long as you figure out ways to do it in a way that is good for your own situation while you are cognizant of the limitations of your investments including the reasonable cashflow that you can derive from your investments including the timeline that you have for the investment to last that includes your ability to step up consumption levels, too, and ultimately, you have to be the one that feels good about your uses of your time and money.. including not getting too far over your head into situations that you have screwed up your personal security and/or control over your finances.   
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February 16, 2020, 05:02:56 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

@Searing

So you only had to sell 10% of your bitcoins after it crashed with 80%. You are privileged. It is this primary emotion called greed telling you that you could have sold less or could have had more. It hurts and likely most of us have been there (even people ‘late’ entering during 2017.

You were however over invested needing the dollars in the short term. Glad it worked out for you though.


(And personal opinion: think about why you hold on to those bcash and bsv. Is it as a hedge in case Bitcoin fails? Or is it greed thinking it will increase in value against bitcoin during a bull run? The latter is not a rational decision).
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February 16, 2020, 05:05:45 AM
Merited by Biodom (1)

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

When savings exceed your future life time earnings prior to retirement + retirement savings. 
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February 16, 2020, 05:07:56 AM
Last edit: February 16, 2020, 05:21:14 AM by JayJuanGee

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

I agree with you that there is going to be individual variation, but if you have a savings amount that is in the 25x (by the way, you may have noticed that 25x happens to be able to generate 4% per year, which would match your annual income) plus territory of your annual income, then you are pretty damned close to being able to live passively off of the interest that should be generated from that amount.  

One of the problems is being able to sufficiently calculate that your amount of savings is clearly and solidly into that territory and it is NOT going to meaningfully fluctuate so much as to NOT be actually clearly in that territory.  If all most of your assets are in BTC and it barely gets into the 25x territory, then you decide to pull the fuck you trigger, you would have pulled such trigger too soon, if the damned thing corrects 85%, and causes you to go from 25x to about 4x... you can no longer sustain yourself and you have to go back with tail between your legs... .. So part of the trick is to actually making sure that you have at least 25x in order that you can sustain a 4% per year withdrawal rate.

Once you reach "fuck you" status, you can do whatever you want, including working, if that is what you want to do.. but until you can assure with a pretty solid assessment of the bottom of the value of your various assets that you have reached such fuck you status (I am saying 25x = 4%) then it is best to keep plugging away and just keeping your eyes on your targets in order that you do not proclaim "fuck you" too soon.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Edit:
Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

25, according to the 4% Safe Withdrawel Rule.
If you like some more safety margin with only 3.33%: 30

The above numbers however do require you to diversify in investments generating income, like stocks / bonds / real estate / etc. In case you like to keep some bitcoins, the math changes.

Bitebits beat me to it (try saying that quickly), and said more eloquently too....
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February 16, 2020, 05:21:55 AM

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

When savings exceed your future life time earnings prior to retirement + retirement savings.  

Great notion, we can even simplify this equation by transferring current retirement savings to the left part of inequality.
SA-savings (btc plus plus non-retirement accounts)
RS-current retirement savings (IRA, 401K, Roth, etc)
LE-lifetime earnings remaining (projection)
ES-extra retirement savings produced by more work

retire when

SA+RS>>LE +ES

>> has to compensate for bitcoin volatility.
To be on the safer side, maybe factor in 5:1 or 3:1 excess of the left part over the right part.
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February 16, 2020, 05:30:35 AM

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

When savings exceed your future life time earnings prior to retirement + retirement savings.  

Great notion, we can even simplify this equation by transferring current retirement savings to the left part of inequality.
SA-savings (btc plus plus non-retirement accounts)
RS-current retirement savings (IRA, 401K, Roth, etc)
LE-lifetime earnings remaining (projection)
ES-extra retirement savings produced by more work

retire when

SA+RS>>LE +ES

>> has to compensate for bitcoin volatility.
To be on the safer side, maybe factor in 5:1 or 3:1 excess of the left part over the right part.

I think that the 4% withdrawal rate or the more conservative 3.33% rate proposed by Bitebits are much easier to calculate - and of course, as you get older (or you see that your years might be numbered) you can increase your withdrawal rate beyond 4% and begin to withdraw into your principle in order that you can clean yourself out (or at least come close to it) before you kick the bucket.
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February 16, 2020, 05:39:54 AM

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

When savings exceed your future life time earnings prior to retirement + retirement savings.  

Great notion, we can even simplify this equation by transferring current retirement savings to the left part of inequality.
SA-savings (btc plus plus non-retirement accounts)
RS-current retirement savings (IRA, 401K, Roth, etc)
LE-lifetime earnings remaining (projection)
ES-extra retirement savings produced by more work

retire when

SA+RS>>LE +ES

>> has to compensate for bitcoin volatility.
To be on the safer side, maybe factor in 5:1 or 3:1 excess of the left part over the right part.

I think that the 4% withdrawal rate or the more conservative 3.33% rate proposed by Bitebits are much easier to calculate - and of course, as you get older (or you see that your years might be numbered) you can increase your withdrawal rate beyond 4% and begin to withdraw into your principle in order that you can clean yourself out (or at least come close to it) before you kick the bucket.

Maybe, but it is difficult to do, unless upon getting to that 30X you sell out of ALL btc into traditional vehicles (stocks, bonds, RE).
Otherwise, you have to still count on a possibility of a 60-80% draw-down in btc part (which is exactly what happened to @Searing).
I'm actually digging the inequality (it's already clearing up the numbers in my head, thanks, @HM).
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February 16, 2020, 05:42:03 AM

At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When you have the ability to leave it. There is little to no difference between slavery and the typical job, except that slaves don't have to look for work while we are forced to beg for the privilege of laboring for others.
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