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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 60 (50%)
No, it's coming later this year - 44 (36.7%)
No, it's coming next year or after - 16 (13.3%)
Total Voters: 120

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25816080 times)
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HairyMaclairy
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February 16, 2020, 05:56:47 AM

I don’t really care about 4%.  The only question is whether through bitcoin I can have more money than I would have had working until retirement.  This is a self fulfilling prophecy - eventually I will get to that point as my time to 65 shrinks every year that passes.  The only question is when that tipping point occurs.  I will keep going until then.  
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February 16, 2020, 06:08:15 AM

I don’t really care about 4%.  The only question is whether through bitcoin I can have more money than I would have had working until retirement.  This is a self fulfilling prophecy - eventually I will get to that point as my time to 65 shrinks every year that passes.  The only question is when that tipping point occurs.  I will keep going until then.  

Australian superannuation scheme provides better benefits than US social security with apparently no involuntary contributions from employees, just employer contributions. Social security here in US is very limited, typically removes 6.4% from the paycheck and has some draconian offset rules (WEP and GPO).
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/australias-safety-net-for-retirees-is-generous-and-comprehensive-and-complicated-2019-09-06
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February 16, 2020, 06:11:51 AM

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

When savings exceed your future life time earnings prior to retirement + retirement savings.  

Great notion, we can even simplify this equation by transferring current retirement savings to the left part of inequality.
SA-savings (btc plus plus non-retirement accounts)
RS-current retirement savings (IRA, 401K, Roth, etc)
LE-lifetime earnings remaining (projection)
ES-extra retirement savings produced by more work

retire when

SA+RS>>LE +ES

>> has to compensate for bitcoin volatility.
To be on the safer side, maybe factor in 5:1 or 3:1 excess of the left part over the right part.

I think that the 4% withdrawal rate or the more conservative 3.33% rate proposed by Bitebits are much easier to calculate - and of course, as you get older (or you see that your years might be numbered) you can increase your withdrawal rate beyond 4% and begin to withdraw into your principle in order that you can clean yourself out (or at least come close to it) before you kick the bucket.

Maybe, but it is difficult to do, unless upon getting to that 30X you sell out of ALL btc into traditional vehicles (stocks, bonds, RE).
Otherwise, you have to still count on a possibility of a 60-80% draw-down in btc part (which is exactly what happened to @Searing).
I'm actually digging the inequality (it's already clearing up the numbers in my head, thanks, @HM).

Fair enough.

I will concede that it is quite possible that there may be different ways to frame the same problem, but some people are going to be more receptive to varying frameworks.

Both bitebits and I had also addressed the 80% draw down situation and surely one of the remedies is to sufficiently diversify in order that extreme volatility in any one asset is NOT going to cause you to have to engage in desperate measures, and also there is a possibility that diversification is NOT going to be sufficient either to take away such volatility risk, especially that we will often see that there tends to be so much damned correlation in various asset classes, even during an economic recession , and we cannot be sure about whether bitcoin fixes that or ways in which to diversify in such ways that cause such possible downside volatility to NOT cramp your entrance into fuck you status.

I had personally asserted that the calculation of the value of the assets should be done based on conjecture about their projected price lowpoints, and in another earlier post, I had already stated that today, I would consider $5k to be approximately BTC's current projected price lowpoint, and of course, with the passage of time, BTC's projected price lowpoint should be going up... hopefully.  For example, if BTC price goes to $150k in the coming 2 years, then at that point, I would recalculate its projected price lowpoint to be in the area of about $20k to $30k (of course, $25k in the middle of that, if you want just one number to use).  And, probably such projections of price lowpoints would need to be done with each asset and some assets are likely going to have less extreme than others but would be prudent to consider any asset classes to be capable of a 50% correction (price lowpoint).. especially given the current seemingly irresponsible monetary policies of a lot of fiat systems that inflate the value of many other systems, including equities and real estate.. .one good thing about real estate is that you can still live on it, but its value still might end up plummeting 50% due to various market collapses that would be caused by the various kinds of ongoing fiat irresponsibilities.

Having a cushion could still allow you to say "fuck you" as planned, and maybe the best assurance would be that if a lot of systems collapse at once, then there could be some consolation in the fact that other people are suffering too, yet bitcoin is suppose to fix some of this to the extent that it might not exactly be as correlated to crash as are other assets.  And, I surely would not be suggesting that someone should be considering their investment plan to be solid if they only have bitcoin.. just seems to damned risky to not have spread out into some diversification even though many of us do not have a whole hell of a lot of confidence in several of the traditional asset classes, they still can serve as a hedge against bitcoin.  .. or thinking about it the other way around can be healthy too, bitcoin is a hedge against various traditional investments.
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February 16, 2020, 06:20:00 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

@BitcoinGirl.Club / Pamoldar : Bhai, I am catching up with my backlog as well. You can skip pages, no one going to notice.  Tongue
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February 16, 2020, 06:26:37 AM

At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When you have the ability to leave it. There is little to no difference between slavery and the typical job, except that slaves don't have to look for work while we are forced to beg for the privilege of laboring for others.

Surely there is a difference between saying that you love your job and saying that you will work until you die because you love working so much, and actually having the option whether to work or not. 

So, yeah, if you truly have the option to NOT work, then you will find out if you really want to do that job, or if you are going to change your vocation.

I don’t really care about 4%.  The only question is whether through bitcoin I can have more money than I would have had working until retirement.  This is a self fulfilling prophecy - eventually I will get to that point as my time to 65 shrinks every year that passes.  The only question is when that tipping point occurs.  I will keep going until then.  

I suppose.  If that is how you look at the matter, then so be it.  You can always just keep adding to your wealth by working more, but at some point, you might start to consider that you don't really care about the money that you are making because you have enough to both maintain your standard of living into perpetuity and/or to even increase your standard of living if you so chose. 

There are likely both subjective and objective considerations regarding when you feel that threshold is met.

Of course, we have heard of some examples (even in this thread) where guys pull the trigger too soon, and of course, there is a risk of that happening if the value of a guy's (or even a gal's) richie status is measured from the top of one of BTC's exponential growth periods, rather than measuring from the low point of where bitcoin could go in a worser case scenario, and of course, it becomes even more risky, if a guy were to bet that BTC has less than a 5% chance of going below $5k, and he does not have any other investments (back up plans), and then BTC ends up going below $5k (defying his worse case scenario expectations).
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February 16, 2020, 06:51:54 AM

When your retirement approaches, just worry about not having debts when the time comes,
if you have assets, and FIAT necessary to live as now is enough for me, BTC will do the rest.
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February 16, 2020, 07:07:05 AM

Looks like everybody here who properly invested in bitcoin before 2017 have around at least 50 and possibly closer to 100 btc while other late people who started to accumulate after 2017 have something between 5 and 15.

Makes sense since btc is now at x10 of the 2014's ATH.

Being early pays.

*pussies who stare at their monitors but never buy will never get close to these levels

If the latecomers play their cards right they'll have an opportunity to increase their btc stash by %200 - %500. All it takes is shorting the parabolic at the right time.
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February 16, 2020, 07:08:46 AM

Not All Central Banks Have an Interest in CBDCs

Quote
1.6 billion people could have access to CBDCs in the next three years

That’s the most startling finding of the study, which was appropriately titled “Impending arrival — a sequel to the survey on central bank digital currency.” Respondents of the survey included 66 banks representing 75% of the world’s population and 90% of its economic output. Ten percent of the banks reported they would issue the first general-purpose CBDCs in the next three years, representing 20% of the world’s population.

This means that digital currencies, although centralized, have the potential to achieve an almost immediate mass adoption that the creators of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins have been working toward for the past 10 years.

Quote
“Some will ignore them, and some will explore them further, leading to a net positive gain in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Developers will build tools that will allow for seamless exchange between CBDCs and cryptocurrencies, and the race for digital currency supremacy will take center stage in this decade."

https://cointelegraph.com/news/not-all-central-banks-have-an-interest-in-cbdcs
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February 16, 2020, 07:09:01 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

Chinese banks disinfect banknotes to stop spread of coronavirus

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February 16, 2020, 07:18:11 AM
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My way of thinking is that, if the following things are true:

1. You only invest what you can afford to lose,
2. Your quality of life is already at a decent level,
3. You understand Bitcoin tech,
4. You are not greedy,

...then you don't panic easily. You can HoDL down to even under $1k and not flinch. "Let it go to zero. I'm already doing OK, I don't really need it." That's what I say to myself when there's a big dip, and that's because of (1), (2), and (4). And if there's a big dip, I try to buy more coins, because of (3), but always respecting (1).

If you get scared easily and chicken out at big dips, you're doing it wrong.

Yep, this is true above "He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl."

"Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?"

Yep on the above....all them pesky 'real-life circumstances' below

Well, since HODL mode, except for mining and electricity and equipment, etc....I managed to HODL through it all from 2013 until 12/24/18 I dumped the 13 BTC.

But at that time (see previous posts) I had retired at 62 years at the ATH and was living off income from crypto until 66 years and 2 months and then I would
crypt
tap into my previous traditional investments at that point. Thus 30 years working with dev disabled/house paid no debt lifestyle...switches to crypto carry over

which I thought I had 3 years of altcoins to cover such ..burnt through that in 9 months with the dump/crash...again same lifestyle then without crypto and

66 years 2 months soc sec and traditional 'balanced' investments at my 65 years of age...again the same lifestyle. So again, retired with no change in money

or lifestyle or what I thought. So dumped the 13 BTC to get through next year or so with altcoins till 66 years and 2 months plan. ie thus panic and sold 13 BTC.

(hey, I only ran in the battle that one time..jeez). So my one great dump of any kind from HODL mode since 2013 and 13 BTC and dumping at the low was based

on panic and circumstances...I really, really was not gonna go back to work for another 1.5 to 2 years so yeah...I dumped 13 BTC indeed and assorted altcoins (at

least they were at the high compared to now)

Then as previous posts state had change in circumstances and monthly income improvement middle of 2019 ...thus the 13 BTC panic sale though understandable

was an overreaction..or not ..without the change in circumstances monthly improvement addition the 13 BTC had to go..since that no longer applies and such

I managed to worm back 4.5 BTC of the original 13 BTC sold in 2019 till now. So any way you are correct the panic did not come out of the blue, real-life pressures

did indeed cause me to panic sell, but one does not at the beginning of 2018 at ATH expect an 85% dump in BTC price and 95% dump in altcoins or whatever the %

ugly that it was. Anyway, circumstances have changed, discretionary money into my traditional investments does not seem prudent at this time, I expect a recession

thus HODL of crypto is probably a better bet now than it was even at these prices in 2018 given the current real-life and world financial health circumstances IMHO. Smiley

but what do I now... I panic sold 13 BTC at $3,965 USD...much angst...alas, lost the faith...a lapse in kool-aide drinking refreshment.

later

Brad

My post above was general. I wasn't aware that you had 100 BTC at the time, and also your age. Spending 13 out of 100 BTC is not a big deal. Like JJG says, I wouldn't worry about getting back to some nice round number. By this mentality, you would not want to spend anything in the future, so as not to spoil its roundness? Doesn't make sense to me, although I'm also kind of OCD about round, symmetrical things, powers of two, and other weird things.

You are fine, and pretty soon you'll be "fuck you" rich. I wouldn't worry at all if I was you.  Cool
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February 16, 2020, 07:26:32 AM

Looks like everybody here who properly invested in bitcoin before 2017 have around at least 50 and possibly closer to 100 btc while other late people who started to accumulate after 2017 have something between 5 and 15.

Makes sense since btc is now at x10 of the 2014's ATH.

Being early pays.

*pussies who stare at their monitors but never buy will never get close to these levels

If the latecomers play their cards right they'll have an opportunity to increase their btc stash by %200 - %500. All it takes is shorting the parabolic at the right time.

I agreed with you until you got to the last paragraph.

When you say shorting, you are NOT really saying shorting are you?, but instead you are suggesting closing a long (by selling) and then buying back lower, right?

Of course, I personally don't really agree with playing around very BIG with those kinds of strategies that attempt to time the market and figuring when to get back in, and even though closing longs and buying back lower would be safer than shorting, I suppose that they are similar concepts depending on whether margin is used. 

If you use margin, then of course, you would be shorting in the traditional sense of the term, but also risking losing all of the BTC that you accumulated if the price moves against you, meaning continues to go up.
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February 16, 2020, 07:29:57 AM


I doubt that very many long term bitcoiners really agree with any of the pushes to make cash illegal.. or to discourage the use of cash.
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February 16, 2020, 07:31:29 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), serveria.com (1), VB1001 (1)

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February 16, 2020, 07:36:08 AM

...If the latecomers play their cards right they'll have an opportunity to increase their btc stash by %200 - %500. All it takes is shorting the parabolic at the right time.

Well, this is definitely easier being said then done.
You would have to short with a large margin, which could be absolutely disastrous if turning against you.
I wouldn't even try this shtick.
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February 16, 2020, 07:36:53 AM

Looks like everybody here who properly invested in bitcoin before 2017 have around at least 50 and possibly closer to 100 btc while other late people who started to accumulate after 2017 have something between 5 and 15.

Makes sense since btc is now at x10 of the 2014's ATH.

Being early pays.

*pussies who stare at their monitors but never buy will never get close to these levels

If the latecomers play their cards right they'll have an opportunity to increase their btc stash by %200 - %500. All it takes is shorting the parabolic at the right time.

I agreed with you until you got to the last paragraph.

When you say shorting, you are NOT really saying shorting are you?, but instead you are suggesting closing a long (by selling) and then buying back lower, right?

Of course, I personally don't really agree with playing around very BIG with those kinds of strategies that attempt to time the market and figuring when to get back in, and even though closing longs and buying back lower would be safer than shorting, I suppose that they are similar concepts depending on whether margin is used.  

If you use margin, then of course, you would be shorting in the traditional sense of the term, but also risking losing all of the BTC that you accumulated if the price moves against you, meaning continues to go up.

Of course. I never did a leveraged trade in my life. Shorting means selling on spot for me. It was a figure of speech. Probably shouldn't have used it like that.

You know how parabolic moves happen. They happen in a very short time scale very fast.

It would be dumb not to take action against a movement like this. You also should never sell if it is going up slowly. (unless you don't need to hodl anymore lol)
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February 16, 2020, 08:00:12 AM



Yes, and we have to do it often, the treatment is for life.
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February 16, 2020, 08:02:48 AM
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In hindsight I know it doesn't matter what I'll say anymore since it already happened but while It was happening in Dec 2017, I knew that it was going to go down soon.

I showed the parabolic graph to my dad, he said: "Get the fuck out now" Didn't listen. I replied: "Nah, I am a hodler." Actually I was afraid to make a move. That's why I started to DCA anyway. Then later on in 2018 or 2019, I did some successful alt trades and "shorted" them exactly at the top of their parabolic moves. (Didn't buy back though, kept the BTC instead.)

I believe I am ready for the big ride now.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-fabeNWc5U
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February 16, 2020, 08:16:14 AM



Yes, and we have to do it often, the treatment is for life.

Yeah, and why should we let the neighbor's wife die, too?
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February 16, 2020, 08:28:30 AM



Yes, and we have to do it often, the treatment is for life.

Yeah, and why should we let the neighbor's wife die, too?

All for science.
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February 16, 2020, 08:33:50 AM

Nooooo please, after a early HODLsleep .... waking up with 3-4 pages of that kind of long texts  Roll Eyes
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