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Question: What happens first:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26353680 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
lightfoot
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I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)


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March 02, 2020, 05:14:58 PM
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, which will follow the rules of the network no matter what miners do. Even if every miner decided to create 1000 bitcoins per block, full nodes would stick to the rules and reject those blocks.
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lightfoot
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March 02, 2020, 05:15:42 PM

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

See, buy some extra groceries, 2-3 weeks is all you need.

Oh and measure your neighbors and rank for caloric content. Easy peasy
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March 02, 2020, 05:17:10 PM

Not as nice as 5-dig, but I do like the 8888 looking price a lot on this particular Monday
Nicholas William Leeson's birthday was Tuesday last week. But it's still a nice number.
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March 02, 2020, 05:17:52 PM

Now we just need a solar storm and we already have the total reset.
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March 02, 2020, 05:33:01 PM

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

An ideal post for gentlemand to merit  Cheesy

Actually thought it would be his writing   Cheesy
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March 02, 2020, 05:38:21 PM



who's jam would this be
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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March 02, 2020, 05:39:56 PM



who's jam would this be
Depends on how good/bad it would be for my back.
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March 02, 2020, 05:41:05 PM



who's jam would this be
Someone with a very sore neck.
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March 02, 2020, 05:44:05 PM



who's jam would this be

If that is a bookshelf full of hand lotion then it is ideal for a good many people.
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March 02, 2020, 06:19:11 PM

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

I'll have mine sunny side up please.
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March 02, 2020, 06:22:53 PM
Last edit: March 02, 2020, 08:11:09 PM by Arriemoller

Just for fun I ordered two solar powered lights , you know, the kind you put next to the door, whatever they are called in English, from Wish on the 18th of February.
Last time i ordered from wish was in October and it took two to three months to get the stuff delivered.
Now it seems like it's gonna take 15 days.
It's in Halmstad today, so most likely in my mailbox by tomorrow.
Fastest delivery ever from Wish.
(the delivery time given was May 4)


2020-03-02 14:00
HALMSTAD - SWEDEN, delivery to local courier

2020-03-01 13:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Shipment in transit by truck

2020-02-27 14:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Custom clearance completed

2020-02-25 06:22
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Arrived at AIRPORT of Destination,Custom clearance in processing.

2020-02-24 00:46
HONG KONG - CHINA, Departure from airport to destination country

2020-02-22 11:30
SHENZHEN, Departed Facility In processing center

2020-02-22 04:26
SHENZHEN, Shipment has been processed in operational center

2020-02-21 18:56
SHENZHEN, Arrived at Sort Facility SHENZHEN

2020-02-19 16:36
Shipment information received
OutOfMemory
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March 02, 2020, 06:24:22 PM

The lead up to the halving is usually volatile. The price will drop again once any major publication posts the theory that at halving the miners will all stop mining (along with the implications of what happens to Bitcoin then).

Just enough people will be worried enough to sell bringing the price down yet again.

The lower the better to launch the price rise at halving, when mining continues at its normal pace.


This time around I am not sure how this Corona virus will affect the price. It may turn into a hedge, the Fed will certainly pump as much as they can which helps.

The US is finally getting cases of people affected. China started in November and by January there was full panic. US having first deaths in March could mean full panic mode in May just as the halving happens.

If the mining panic drives the price down, people may not see it as a safe haven during the crisis.

It could either be a perfect storm for a big bitcoin price or the timing counters sentiment such that it is just a normal rise starting at halving.

I certainly went out and stocked up on enough food for about a month. Fortunately I am far from Panama City and there are no reported cases here yet.

Isn't China/Asia the region behind the most bitcoin volume? I think we already saw the impact, i suggest a substantial drop in the stock market is yet to come, at latest when half of the US and EU will have to stay at home for collective self-quarantine. The halvening will most likely unfold it's rising potential a while after it has taken place,as it was before. Probably there will also be some additional action in advance, because of anticipation.

But that's uhm... just my opinion, man  Grin
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March 02, 2020, 06:25:45 PM



Nice
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March 02, 2020, 06:26:48 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), AlcoHoDL (1), bkbirge (1)

Dedicated to all WO electro-synth fans:

Jean-Michel Jarre - Oxygene, Pt. 17

Getting in the mood for what's coming...

Wow!

Jean-Michel Jarre - Fourth Rendez-Vous
Arriemoller
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March 02, 2020, 06:38:18 PM

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

There's some very weird stocking up going on in Malmö, all the canned meatballs in brown sauce and all the canned chili con carne is gone, but the canned ravioli is untouched. And basically everything else is also in normal stock.
I asked when it will be back in stock and they said tomorrow, there is no shortage, deliveries come as usual.
And if you go to Trelleborg instead there is no stocking going on at all.
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March 02, 2020, 06:43:04 PM

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

An ideal post for gentlemand to merit  Cheesy

Actually thought it would be his writing   Cheesy

Absolutely. Whenever i read his writings i have to think of Patrick Bateman in "American Psycho".



who's jam would this be

Mine Smiley
I had a similar setup 11 years ago. The double bed was standard, but i mounted my screen behind a wooden board with black velvet lining, with the three front 5.1 speakers mounted around the display. The board was tilted off a horizontal platform, using hinges and a metal chain to adjust the angle, very simple but effective. The platform was hung from the ceiling, on two rails from sliding doors, mounted in the direction of the bed's axis, over the center of the bed. I was able to play in almost any position, from sitting upright to lying flat, after adjusting the angle and height. Watching movies also was great. The display was only 26" diameter, but considering the resolution of the screen and the human eye, it was more than sufficient at the lower distance. I hit my head occasionally when getting out of bed in the dark, nothing too serious, though. I still have the rails in the basement, so maybe i will build something like this again. Of course, i had a wireless keyboard, and this was the only annoying thing about it: Typing while lying flat.

I got the idea from a movie, where a games programmer like was living in an automated chair with screens hung above and in front of him, split keyboard in the armrests (iirc). Funny, as i just googled for it, i found the title "Grandma's Boy", from 2006, directed by Nicholaus Goossen (*).

EDIT:
(*) That name was rising some memories about someone you might know...
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March 02, 2020, 06:46:42 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?


#haiku
LFC_Bitcoin
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#1 VIP Crypto Casino


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March 02, 2020, 06:51:23 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

Just for fun I ordered two solar powered lights , you know, the kind you put next to the door, whatever they are called in English, from Wish on the 18th of February.
Last time i ordered from wish was in October and it took two to three months to get the stuff delivered.
Now it seems like it's gonna take 15 days.
It's in Halmstad today, so most likely in my mailbox by tomorrow.
Fastest delivery ever from Swish.
(the delivery time given was May 4)


2020-03-02 14:00
HALMSTAD - SWEDEN, delivery to local courier

2020-03-01 13:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Shipment in transit by truck

2020-02-27 14:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Custom clearance completed

2020-02-25 06:22
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Arrived at AIRPORT of Destination,Custom clearance in processing.

2020-02-24 00:46
HONG KONG - CHINA, Departure from airport to destination country

2020-02-22 11:30
SHENZHEN, Departed Facility In processing center

2020-02-22 04:26
SHENZHEN, Shipment has been processed in operational center

2020-02-21 18:56
SHENZHEN, Arrived at Sort Facility SHENZHEN

2020-02-19 16:36
Shipment information received

That’s really good, we can’t get anything from one particular area where our main Chinese factory is. Our fucking sales are 50% down in the last 2 months due to having to advertise alternative stuff.

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March 02, 2020, 06:52:40 PM
Last edit: March 02, 2020, 07:19:34 PM by Torque



An easy case can be made, especially since the Financial Crisis of 2009, that these virus outbreaks have had little to no long term impact on the markets.

And that shouldn't be a surprise, since we are in a long term melt-up. All the growth economies of the world have been negative since 2009. Nothing will stop the Fed and the CBs from keeping this market moving North. Because supply chains don't really mean shit when actual demand has cratered a long time ago. Welcome to the world zombie economy.

Ask yourself, will what is happening right now even matter in 5 years? Nope.

#BUYBTC #BUYPMs #BUYANYTHINGDEFLATIONARY
nutildah
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March 02, 2020, 07:08:46 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

You're talking about a moving average
I am not talking about any moving averages.

Yes, you are. The asset doesn't move perfectly fitted to a "constant trajectory," you said so yourself. A rocket moves at a "constant trajectory." Stocks don't - not even fictitious examples of stocks - unless they completely lack volatility. In your example, you can only be talking about the trajectory of a price as being defined by its moving average. If its not, its not "constant."

Your argument was that volatility is equivalent to risk, which is generally wrong. Neither contains much, if any, information about the other.

Perhaps I shouldn't have used an equal sign to imply that the two are strongly correlated (which they are). They are indeed not equivalents of each other and do not possess the same definition.

To show to you that this is not the case I've tried to give you examples of assets that directly contradict your assertion.

You gave me an example of an asset that doesn't exist.

In the 'basket of all stocks' you have no risk in the long-term, because your expected loss (= risk) is strictly negative and hence your expected return is strictly positive, because the realized total return converges towards 10% p.a. (in the case of the US stock market) over time.
Despite that, the asset itself has been volatile. Hence, volatility does not imply anything about risk nor vice versa. The only thing that matters for risk is your strategy and nothing else.

That's a classic example of an average risk, average volatility asset. Its a benchmark for both risk and volatility. You're proving my point for me.

You can have a perpetually flat asset with high risk, or you can have highly volatile assets without any risk (Bitcoin - which does not mean that you are guaranteed to make money).

No, you can't. "Perpetually flat asset" implies zero volatility and zero risk. How do you lose money on something whose value never changes?

And saying bitcoin has no risk is absurd. Does anybody else feel like bitcoin is a "risk-free" investment?

You can get volatility and risk in any combination and neither implies the other.

Okay, I'm willing to concede that they do not imply one another 100% of the time, but as a general rule of thumb, they do.

Risk is a statistical measure, e.g. the expected loss of a strategy, asset or portfolio.

Not quite. Its the probability that a gain or a loss will differ significantly from what is expected.

Just like the expected value of a dice roll is 3.5 = 1/6 times sum of all potential results.

Not trying to troll you but this is a horrible example as you can never roll a "3.5" -- that would be a highly unexpected outcome.

With risk the results are potential price trajectories in the market and the probabilities are obviously different and depend on all sorts of parameters.
Realized returns on the other hand are what you end up with in reality, and while risk can give you an idea of a region that you'll land in, it'll never tell you what will really happen for individual 'games'.

I don't disagree with this.

Here's another attempt to make the point clear.
Assume you have volatility but it's always the same. Basically, your price follows a 100% predictable pattern no matter how many people buy or sell. In that case you have volatility, but 100% insight and hence can generate profits without any risk whatsoever.
Obviously this isn't going to happen in real markets (though it does in many games), but it should be sufficiently illustrative to show that volatility and risk aren't related.

Dude. Volatility that is always the same is not volatility. That's stability, and thus not risk. As you said, obviously this isn't going to happen in real markets, and it won't, ever. Nobody has 100% insight into any market.

If your best real-world example of an asset that has high volatility and "no risk" is bitcoin, I'm going to stick by my original assertion that you are just looking at this from an after-the-fact standpoint.
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