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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26353692 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
OutOfMemory
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March 02, 2020, 07:13:19 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)


modern? NO WAY!
Let me go on:
It more reminds me of the old times of techno, in the mid 90s, where all the power of a raving masterpiece of techno came from a simple but powerful hookline, uncomplicated sound design in the ways a jupiter8 or minimoog could deliver, accompanied by a tb-303 bassline, while the emotions of the listener were unchained by about only the arrangement, which brought him/her onto a journey through the universe of his/her own mind. I might have swallowed, sniffed, licked and smoked too much of all the funky substances offered to me these days to maximise the experience this way, but hey, techno was made with that in mind. It was like woodstock reloaded in the nineties, unlike that uniform, commercial, high polished polyrhytm techno music scene of today.
A track from 2018, which is free from all that and still makes you float away, like in the old days, that's indeed a brilliant piece of work.
I need to get some very old mp3s now, thanks for igniting the spark  Cool  Grin

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Arriemoller
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March 02, 2020, 07:41:31 PM

Just for fun I ordered two solar powered lights , you know, the kind you put next to the door, whatever they are called in English, from Wish on the 18th of February.
Last time i ordered from wish was in October and it took two to three months to get the stuff delivered.
Now it seems like it's gonna take 15 days.
It's in Halmstad today, so most likely in my mailbox by tomorrow.
Fastest delivery ever from Swish.
(the delivery time given was May 4)


2020-03-02 14:00
HALMSTAD - SWEDEN, delivery to local courier

2020-03-01 13:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Shipment in transit by truck

2020-02-27 14:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Custom clearance completed

2020-02-25 06:22
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Arrived at AIRPORT of Destination,Custom clearance in processing.

2020-02-24 00:46
HONG KONG - CHINA, Departure from airport to destination country

2020-02-22 11:30
SHENZHEN, Departed Facility In processing center

2020-02-22 04:26
SHENZHEN, Shipment has been processed in operational center

2020-02-21 18:56
SHENZHEN, Arrived at Sort Facility SHENZHEN

2020-02-19 16:36
Shipment information received

That’s really good, we can’t get anything from one particular area where our main Chinese factory is. Our fucking sales are 50% down in the last 2 months due to having to advertise alternative stuff.



That sucks man.
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March 02, 2020, 07:55:39 PM

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?


#haiku


I would so merit this if I could.
Last of the V8s
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March 02, 2020, 07:59:10 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?


#haiku


I would so merit this if I could.
last line has 4 syllables. merit saved
OutOfMemory
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March 02, 2020, 08:01:57 PM

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?


#haiku


I would so merit this if I could.
last line has 4 syllables. merit saved

I intentionally read it as "who is". Problem solved. Merited.
Wekkel
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yes


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March 02, 2020, 08:25:47 PM

I purchased a tiny bit of Bitcoin so price can go down now.

/your most reliable contra-indicator.
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March 02, 2020, 08:30:43 PM
Last edit: March 02, 2020, 08:41:13 PM by lightfoot

The Wow was in reference to 6EQUJ5. Still, rendezvous is one hell of a track.
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March 02, 2020, 08:37:46 PM
Merited by infofront (1)

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.
lightfoot
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March 02, 2020, 08:41:50 PM

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.
You trust the government? This government?

Hm.
Arriemoller
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March 02, 2020, 08:48:40 PM

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.
You trust the government? This government?

Hm.

Well, I agree that Löfven is the worst prime minister we ever had, but the bureaucracy and military is still working.
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March 02, 2020, 08:50:34 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Risk is a statistical measure, e.g. the expected loss of a strategy, asset or portfolio.

Not quite. Its the probability that a gain or a loss will differ significantly from what is expected.
Look, I hate to be that guy, but I've got a PhD in Mathematical Statistics. This stuff is my bread and butter. If you've got questions I'll be happy to try and answer them. But I'm not going to argue about basic definitions.

The definition of risk in finance is and always has been the expected loss with regard to some measure, or in other words: the expected value (or integral) of some loss function that is defined by your strategy. This is not a probability, it's a value. A value which can be positive, negative or zero to indicate respectively the average loss, profit or no change over many repetitions of the same strategy.

The probability that returns deviate from expectation can be measured in different ways, but none of those is what is understood as "risk" in this field.

Okay, I'm willing to concede that they do not imply one another 100% of the time, but as a general rule of thumb, they do.
No, they do not. Risk exclusively a measure of your proposed strategy. Volatility is a market phenomenon that does not in any way depend on your strategy.




Yes, you are. The asset doesn't move perfectly fitted to a "constant trajectory," you said so yourself. A rocket moves at a "constant trajectory." Stocks don't - not even fictitious examples of stocks - unless they completely lack volatility. In your example, you can only be talking about the trajectory of a price as being defined by its moving average. If its not, its not "constant."
No, I'm still not talking about moving averages and you are still completely misrepresenting what I've said.

To cut it short, it was probably my bad for assuming you weren't, but you're clearly just using terms very loosely and with a naive colloquial understanding as opposed to their actual definitions.

If you're not going to do anything with these things that's fine I suppose. But you should still be aware of your misunderstanding of the subject.

Your argument was that volatility is equivalent to risk, which is generally wrong. Neither contains much, if any, information about the other.

Perhaps I shouldn't have used an equal sign to imply that the two are strongly correlated (which they are). They are indeed not equivalents of each other and do not possess the same definition.
No, they still aren't strongly correlated. The level of correlation depends exclusively on your strategy, capacity, and infrastructure and not on the volatility. They have virtually nothing to do with each other.

You can by the way have two different definitions or objects that are equivalent to each other.

To show to you that this is not the case I've tried to give you examples of assets that directly contradict your assertion.

You gave me an example of an asset that doesn't exist.
It's called an academic example. Which is more than fit to illustrate points about an already abstract field like finance.

In the 'basket of all stocks' you have no risk in the long-term, because your expected loss (= risk) is strictly negative and hence your expected return is strictly positive, because the realized total return converges towards 10% p.a. (in the case of the US stock market) over time.
Despite that, the asset itself has been volatile. Hence, volatility does not imply anything about risk nor vice versa. The only thing that matters for risk is your strategy and nothing else.

That's a classic example of an average risk, average volatility asset. Its a benchmark for both risk and volatility. You're proving my point for me.
No, I'm not. Risk and volatility are not equivalent and in fact not even correlated until an individual, specific strategy introduces correlation.

You can have a perpetually flat asset with high risk, or you can have highly volatile assets without any risk (Bitcoin - which does not mean that you are guaranteed to make money).

No, you can't. "Perpetually flat asset" implies zero volatility and zero risk. How do you lose money on something whose value never changes?

And saying bitcoin has no risk is absurd. Does anybody else feel like bitcoin is a "risk-free" investment?
Yes, you can. You can have a company that doesn't ever grow, returns the same dividends and keeps the same asset value. Until an asteroid wipes it out of existence and reduces it to zero.

As I've already said, in finance the risk of a strategy (e.g. "buy Bitcoin") is the expected loss of that strategy. This is a statistical measure. And because Bitcoin's potential returns are so extreme this becomes an example of an asset with negative risk, e.g. expected returns, despite not guaranteeing any profit.

Just like the expected value of a dice roll is 3.5 = 1/6 times sum of all potential results.

Not trying to troll you but this is a horrible example as you can never roll a "3.5" -- that would be a highly unexpected outcome.
Good, that's why this makes a perfect example if you actually want to understand what's going on.

If your best real-world example of an asset that has high volatility and "no risk" is bitcoin, I'm going to stick by my original assertion that you are just looking at this from an after-the-fact standpoint.
See the dice example. I'm not. Risk is a "before-the-fact" measure.
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March 02, 2020, 08:51:18 PM

yeah

I ain't waiting around for no goddamned government cheese
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March 02, 2020, 08:52:35 PM
Merited by kurious (1)

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.

What are you, some sort of socialist?
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March 02, 2020, 08:52:54 PM

yeah

I ain't waiting around for no goddamned government cheese
Government makes the best cheese in the world.
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March 02, 2020, 09:03:11 PM

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.
Because everyone else is doing it. The biggest problem is not the virus itself, but herds of stupid people panicking. And if it turns out you didn't need to stock up, just eat the food anyway.
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March 02, 2020, 09:07:37 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Dow Jones up more than 5% today. Bitcoin not up 5% (yet). Roll Eyes

IMO, prepare for a rally.
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March 02, 2020, 09:09:14 PM

yeah

I ain't waiting around for no goddamned government cheese

Can't recall ever having government cheese, nor ever having heard of it actually, would be a new thing to experience.
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March 02, 2020, 09:10:29 PM

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.

What are you, some sort of socialist?

No, but the government is.
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March 02, 2020, 09:14:29 PM

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.
Because everyone else is doing it. The biggest problem is not the virus itself, but herds of stupid people panicking. And if it turns out you didn't need to stock up, just eat the food anyway.
There was a corona lockdown very close to where I live. Wonder what stores look like around here, been too lazy to go and check so far.
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March 02, 2020, 09:18:41 PM

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?


#haiku


I would so merit this if I could.
last line has 4 syllables. merit saved

I intentionally read it as "who is". Problem solved. Merited.

Actually I use a syllable counter for the haikus, cos counting fucking distracts me:
https://syllablecounter.net/count
I did try both - but it didn't make a difference in the count, so I used the 's.

To see you again,
it's to get broke again,
oh well never mind.
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