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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21534341 times)
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January 24, 2020, 09:54:18 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.
What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

A deflationary currency in an inflationary economic model should increase in value infinitum.
Why Bitcoin would be indefinitely deflationary?  Huh I don't understand.
It was deflationary only because its price and its market were growing. But now that almost everyone on earth has heard of it, there is no reason for growing and being deflationary anymore.

That's NOT what it means to be deflationary.
It is deflationary because the unit number is limited to 21 mil max issued and that number is already smaller and decreasing because of the losses (lost wallet, thrown away hard drive, etc.). Lost bitcoin is not being replaced. In time, total number of accessible units will be declining, hence deflationary.
However, right now it is still mildly inflationary. Currently, btc inflation is about 3.6% on a yearly basis, will drop to less than 1.8% in May.
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January 24, 2020, 09:58:34 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

-snip-
... I would rather just go up from here, but seems like there exists some short term down momentum... how low it will go remains another to be determined matter.
Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

You sound a bit like a troll asking such a terse question, but for now, I will give you some benefit of the doubt, since I don't recognize your user name or having had posted in these here parts, previously.

In the short-term, we cannot always determine exactly BTC's price direction, and there is a bit of an inclination that BTC's price continues to move in the direction of the momentum that it already has until it no longer does.

Regarding BTC's medium to long term price, the pressure remains UP, and you can look at BTC price prediction models and information related to those price models which would include: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal, 3) metcalfe's law and networking effects pertaining to s-curve exponential adoption and 4) other similar models.  

If you do not understand the meaning of these models and you believe that they are purely theoretical, then likely you need to do more studying of bitcoin.  Surely there is a decent amount of truth that past performance of any asset does not guarantee future performance, and none of the price prediction models that I listed really rely on BTC's past performance, but past performance remains helpful to them in analyzing the models and where we are at in terms of those various price prediction models (looking at either time or price).

Do you have any other models or theories?  Do you believe that BTC prices are going down or going to stay flat in the coming 1-3 years?  How about 5 years?  What do you expect?

 I am frequently asserting that nothing is guaranteed, including bitcoin, but even if the price direction of bitcoin is far from guaranteed, there remains a decent amount of strong evidence that any person that takes bitcoin seriously and puts a bit of their assets into bitcoin, such as 1-10% of their investible assets are likely in a good starting place, even though individuals are going to vary in terms of some of their financial abilities or even assets that they might have available and able to invest in bitcoin.  

In any event, bitcoin seems to be a very asymmetric bet, towards the upside... so good luck to anyone who has NOT yet come around to understanding the asymmetric bet concept... you (lacking in understanding peeps) are going to need it (meaning luck).


Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.
(btw, JJG didn't say that)

You seem to be suffering from the shitcoin syndrome.
Wish you a quick recovery.

True dat!!!   martyMC seems to have been engaging in a bit of a twisting of words, and maybe I should have restrained my lil selfie from taking the bait... I see that with some of his continued stupid-ass posts on the topic that do not really seem to add any value, just ask dumbass questions as if we were in 2011 when hardly anyone understood bitcoin, at all.    We are NO longer in those earlier days, so excuses for ignorance are NOT as acceptable... even though I do accept that there are genuinely a lot of people in the world who are quite susceptible to misinformation and disinformation regarding bitcoin because they do not know enough about the topic.
Cheesy
So you really think there is an unlimited free lunch for Bitcoin holders?
Everyone buying and holding at any price will win free money... indefinitely...
So even the dumbest guy in the world just need to buy bitcoin and sit down to earn money? He just need to wait to beat the market and steal money from professional traders?  Cheesy
What about all the people who bought Bitcoin 2 years ago? How much did they earn as of now?


Basically, you are saying that if the price is temporatily falling, this is the end of the road. Any arguments about that? For example a comparison between the current market cap with other assets (like gold), or mass adoption progress (the number of addresses or people with positive balance), or the yearly inflation rate (related to the supply which is cut in half each four years)? If you can't prove that all these parameters are at the absolute maximum, these statement of yours are just a high school trash talk.

Obviously, you are just one of the many narrow sighted n00bs who came here, proud of your one or two lucky trades. You remind me of one Ph.D. student who had a report at a conference proudly boasting in front of specialists with 30+ year experience in math and computer sciences, that he'd worked in this area for 2 weeks and already achieved something big. His report was so elementary that the audience exploded in laughter when he boasted like this. I am just saying that your few %'s gains are not to be compared with the profit of any well established holder here. Many of us started investing in single and double digits.  I doubt you are able to calculate the profit in terms of %'s but give it a try. May be it will help you to compare it with your gains by trading. Most of us started in 3 digits, and fewer around 3-4K. We continued to buy even above 10K and there is nothing wrong with that.  
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January 24, 2020, 10:00:17 PM

A deflationary currency in an inflationary economic model should increase in value infinitum.
Why Bitcoin would be indefinitely deflationary?  Huh I don't understand.
It was deflationary only because its price and its market were growing. But now that almost everyone on earth has heard of it, there is no reason for growing and being deflationary anymore.

That's NOT what it means to be deflationary.
It is deflationary because the unit number is limited to 21 mil max issued and that number is already smaller and decreasing because of the losses (lost wallet, thrown away hard drive, etc.). Lost bitcoin is not being replaced. In time, total number of accessible units will be declining, hence deflationary.
However, right now it is still mildly inflationary. Currently, btc inflation is about 3.6% on a yearly basis, will drop to less than 1.8% in May.
If it's still "inflationary" as you said, it doesn't explain its growth then.
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January 24, 2020, 10:02:41 PM

Anybody follow @satoshi_babe on Twitter?

Well worth a wank look!

https://twitter.com/satoshi_babe

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January 24, 2020, 10:12:24 PM
Last edit: January 24, 2020, 10:24:18 PM by Biodom

A deflationary currency in an inflationary economic model should increase in value infinitum.
Why Bitcoin would be indefinitely deflationary?  Huh I don't understand.
It was deflationary only because its price and its market were growing. But now that almost everyone on earth has heard of it, there is no reason for growing and being deflationary anymore.

That's NOT what it means to be deflationary.
It is deflationary because the unit number is limited to 21 mil max issued and that number is already smaller and decreasing because of the losses (lost wallet, thrown away hard drive, etc.). Lost bitcoin is not being replaced. In time, total number of accessible units will be declining, hence deflationary.
However, right now it is still mildly inflationary. Currently, btc inflation is about 3.6% on a yearly basis, will drop to less than 1.8% in May.
If it's still "inflationary" as you said, it doesn't explain its growth then.

The network size increase explains "growth" (Metcalf's law).
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January 24, 2020, 10:16:33 PM

Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.
What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

A deflationary currency in an inflationary economic model should increase in value infinitum.
Why Bitcoin would be indefinitely deflationary?  Huh I don't understand.
It was deflationary only because its price and its market were growing. But now that almost everyone on earth has heard of it, there is no reason for growing and being deflationary anymore.


https://fee.org/articles/bitcoin-is-deflationary-transparent-and-antifragile/
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January 24, 2020, 10:18:02 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

Quick personal story on how luck works.  I'm pretty sure other people will recognize the basic principle in play here.

Girl's car had been running on 3 cyl for a while, burnt exhaust valve on #3.  Bought a running parts car at auction, had been severely totalled in the ass end, spent my whole yuletide time off swapping in that motor.

Everything was great, ran strong, good mileage, happy girl.

Last weekend we had a show in a neighboring city, 250 Km drive, took that car, everything's great, good show, visit friends the next morning then drive back...about 1/3 of the way home #1 rod lets loose and grenades out the side of the block...

Bass player was still behind us a ways towing the gear, so we had peeps, get to thinking, we are broke down right by the exit to the town where the band that invited us lives.  Call them, sure no problem, dump it at his house, we have basic AAA so free 5 mile tow, his house is 4.8 miles.

Girl upgrades AAA for $40, gets you free 100 mile tow, his house to our house...95 miles.

This is how my luck works...massive kicks in nuts, but you get a cookie...

Just got the POS back on my pad, I'm ready to be rich now.

We live in the same reality.
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January 24, 2020, 10:29:16 PM

Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.
What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

A deflationary currency in an inflationary economic model should increase in value infinitum.
Why Bitcoin would be indefinitely deflationary?  Huh I don't understand.
It was deflationary only because its price and its market were growing. But now that almost everyone on earth has heard of it, there is no reason for growing and being deflationary anymore.


You are fucking delusional, martyMC - especially if you are attempting to make anything close to an argument that bitcoin is a mature market.

Those same kinds of arguments were being made a lot in 2016 and 2017, and how did that turn out?

Furthermore, even though there is a lot of hype about purported wider spread learnings about bitcoin in 2017, 2018 and 2019, peoples don't know shit about bitcoin, even if they heard about the name.  You are a decent example of such.  You are not alone.... lot's of dumb fucks out there in regards to their bitcoin knowledge, just like you, marty farty.
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January 24, 2020, 10:34:56 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Insteresting Thread..

Quote
A thread on the history of $BTC mining hardware

1/ Prior to 2011 $BTC mining was dominated by CPU and GPU hardware. The introduction of FGPA mining in mid-2011 was short-lived; a hashrate arms-race started with the introduction of faster ASIC mining hardware in mid 2012





Quote
2/ The use of ASIC miners was one of the most important milestones in $BTC mining. This correlated w/ the increase in $BTC price and was a good indicator that there was adoption and momentum behind the fledgling cryptocurrency beyond the initial enthusiasts

Quote
3/ The first ASIC mining rigs were not sold to the public until early 2013. This corresponded with a dramatic increase in price of $BTC

Quote
4/ Between 2013 - 2014 $BTC mining chips shrank down from 130nm to 20nm (an 85% reduction) in an effort to cram more hashpower onto boards that required less power to run. $BTC economics was beginning to get serious

Quote
5/ Since 2014, despite increasing competition between miners, higher capital costs, and market volatility, the network hashrate has continued to grow at a near uninterrupted exponential rate. The only thing we can really be certain of?

$BTC is here to stay 🚀🚀

Quote
Visuals and research by
@dangjeremy3
 and commentary by
@simonohanlon101
 

Data from - http://docs.tokenanalyst.io

Source: https://twitter.com/thetokenanalyst/status/1220775209432690688
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January 24, 2020, 10:38:09 PM

Quick personal story on how luck works.  I'm pretty sure other people will recognize the basic principle in play here.

Girl's car had been running on 3 cyl for a while, burnt exhaust valve on #3.  Bought a running parts car at auction, had been severely totalled in the ass end, spent my whole yuletide time off swapping in that motor.

Everything was great, ran strong, good mileage, happy girl.

Last weekend we had a show in a neighboring city, 250 Km drive, took that car, everything's great, good show, visit friends the next morning then drive back...about 1/3 of the way home #1 rod lets loose and grenades out the side of the block...

Bass player was still behind us a ways towing the gear, so we had peeps, get to thinking, we are broke down right by the exit to the town where the band that invited us lives.  Call them, sure no problem, dump it at his house, we have basic AAA so free 5 mile tow, his house is 4.8 miles.

Girl upgrades AAA for $40, gets you free 100 mile tow, his house to our house...95 miles.

This is how my luck works...massive kicks in nuts, but you get a cookie...

Just got the POS back on my pad, I'm ready to be rich now.


Luck?
Thought about karma? Maybe you have good karma...
...or your girl  Grin
Maybe because you took the burden to change an engine, which is not the easiest of work?
One hundred maybes...

Cool story, i guess you won't ever forget journeys like this  Cool
Life, a self-contained miracle...

I have some abilities to repair cars, but sometimes it just is NOT worth it no more.

I had always thought that it was a good idea to buy cars that were around 3 years old because they have mostly depreciated, so they held their value much better. 

I suppose that I still believe that, but after a certain point in life, I don't care as much about those first 3 years of depreciating value because there comes a point that there is a feeling that the extra amount spent for the new car is worth it... No hassles and a decent warranty.... Surely there are some brands of cars that are more reliable than others, too... but seems to me that the quality of new cars is much higher than it was 10 or 20 years ago...   

Of course, there is still planned obsolescence, so I suppose we cannot really deny that, and of course, we have a bit of a fucked up direction with the right to repair, too.. so who can even fix their own cars anymore, except maybe changing the oil...and how the fuck do you reset the computer switch once you changed it?
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January 24, 2020, 11:09:38 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), ivomm (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

So you really think there is an unlimited free lunch for Bitcoin holders?
Everyone buying and holding at any price will win free money... indefinitely...
So even the dumbest guy in the world just need to buy bitcoin and sit down to earn money? He just need to wait to beat the market and steal money from professional traders?  Cheesy
What about all the people who bought Bitcoin 2 years ago? How much did they earn as of now?


Unlimited? Indefinite?

Nobody is saying that but you. There's still lots of growth left though. Bitcoin is barely 11 years old. That's an incredibly short time in the lifespan of a revolutionary technology.
___

Steal money from "professional" traders?

Lawl. What a joke.

Bitcoin traders are basically gamblers who are aren't smart enough to realize that it's the exchanges who make the money. Those with deep enough pockets to manipulate the market may be able to earn short-term more than exchange fees and fiat transfer costs but the real gains are made by long-term growth.

Giving your bitcoins to an exchange to hold for you is just plain stupid. Not your keys, not your coins. The prudent investor avoids the internet, "wallets", passwords, etc. Do you understand dual-key cryptography? Simply  protect your private keys. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. When the day comes that your coins are worth many times what they're worth now, you'll be glad to be able to sweep small addresses.
___

What about all the people who bought Bitcoin 2 years ago? How much did they earn as of now?

Those who paid over $30 in 2011 would have been way down when it was worth barely $5 in 2012. Those who paid over $1000 in 2013 would have been way down when it fell below $200 in 2015.

The smart people are the ones with the foresight to hold on to the coins they had while prices fell, and accumulate even more coins while they were cheap.

Even at the rock bottom price of $3.2k a year ago, those who bought for $1000 were doing pretty well. Those who stocked up at $5 or $30, or $200 are more than pleased with their investments.

When bitcoins are valued in 6 digits, these 4 digit prices will be seen as a bargain.
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January 24, 2020, 11:50:44 PM

Thanks xhomerx10...

I do wonder if any of the poor sods who lost out will ever get a penny, but you never know...

 Being a poor sod myself, I'm not holding out much hope.  If it weren't for JBreher giving me the heads up about Proof-of-keys day (January 3rd) I would certainly have lost much more than I did.  I believe the exchange was shut down less than 2 weeks after the proof-of-keys day.

Wow. Didn't realize the concrete benefit thereof. Kinda warms the heart...

...though it kinda makes one wonder if perhaps the proof-of-keys reveals Quadriga's theretofore hidden insolvency?
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January 25, 2020, 12:11:51 AM

Thanks xhomerx10...

I do wonder if any of the poor sods who lost out will ever get a penny, but you never know...

 Being a poor sod myself, I'm not holding out much hope.  If it weren't for JBreher giving me the heads up about Proof-of-keys day (January 3rd) I would certainly have lost much more than I did.  I believe the exchange was shut down less than 2 weeks after the proof-of-keys day.

Wow. Didn't realize the concrete benefit thereof. Kinda warms the heart...

...though it kinda makes one wonder if perhaps the proof-of-keys reveals Quadriga's theretofore hidden insolvency?

hahahahaha

Your partial savior of one of our otherwise potentially lost-puppy WO peeps, namely xhomerx10, might have off-set a decent amount of your misleading bullshit posts over the years involving pumpenings of BIG blocks, attempts to overthrow bitcoin and your bullshit attempts to assert that Bcash SV has some kind of honest and/or redeeming value... which even you cannot really believe your own bullshit in that direction.. as somac had pointed out to you.... yeah right...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


Anywhoooo, ...thanks for saving (even if only partially and inadvertently) xhomerx10... I had been starting to kind of grow fond of the guy.. and not sure what I personally would have done without him.. too many ways to list .......  Wink    Tongue
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January 25, 2020, 01:02:43 AM

Anybody follow @satoshi_babe on Twitter?

Well worth a wank look!

https://twitter.com/satoshi_babe




Even with BTC I'm fairly sure I could not 'afford' @satoshi_babe. One must know one's limitations. I'd pull something and die.

Much like the male praying mantis..debating now internally on if it would be worth it....hmmm....goodbye 'cruel' fiat-based world!

sorry..wandered into a daydream...happens often...
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January 25, 2020, 01:13:56 AM
Last edit: January 25, 2020, 01:36:12 AM by jojo69

In other news, pretty pleased at the moment, feeling like I have my time thing sorted for now, there will be room for a lambo...er...rubidium standard, in the future

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January 25, 2020, 01:22:11 AM

Thanks xhomerx10...

I do wonder if any of the poor sods who lost out will ever get a penny, but you never know...

 Being a poor sod myself, I'm not holding out much hope.  If it weren't for JBreher giving me the heads up about Proof-of-keys day (January 3rd) I would certainly have lost much more than I did.  I believe the exchange was shut down less than 2 weeks after the proof-of-keys day.

Wow. Didn't realize the concrete benefit thereof. Kinda warms the heart...

...though it kinda makes one wonder if perhaps the proof-of-keys reveals Quadriga's theretofore hidden insolvency?

hahahahaha

Your partial savior of one of our otherwise potentially lost-puppy WO peeps, namely xhomerx10, might have off-set a decent amount of your misleading bullshit posts over the years involving pumpenings of BIG blocks, attempts to overthrow bitcoin and your bullshit attempts to assert that Bcash SV has some kind of honest and/or redeeming value... which even you cannot really believe your own bullshit in that direction.. as somac had pointed out to you.... yeah right...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


Anywhoooo, ...thanks for saving (even if only partially and inadvertently) xhomerx10... I had been starting to kind of grow fond of the guy.. and not sure what I personally would have done without him.. too many ways to list .......  Wink    Tongue

 AWww JJG!  You're making me cry and my wife jealous. 
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January 25, 2020, 01:39:28 AM
Last edit: January 25, 2020, 02:37:46 AM by JayJuanGee

Thanks xhomerx10...

I do wonder if any of the poor sods who lost out will ever get a penny, but you never know...

 Being a poor sod myself, I'm not holding out much hope.  If it weren't for JBreher giving me the heads up about Proof-of-keys day (January 3rd) I would certainly have lost much more than I did.  I believe the exchange was shut down less than 2 weeks after the proof-of-keys day.

Wow. Didn't realize the concrete benefit thereof. Kinda warms the heart...

...though it kinda makes one wonder if perhaps the proof-of-keys reveals Quadriga's theretofore hidden insolvency?

hahahahaha

Your partial savior of one of our otherwise potentially lost-puppy WO peeps, namely xhomerx10, might have off-set a decent amount of your misleading bullshit posts over the years involving pumpenings of BIG blocks, attempts to overthrow bitcoin and your bullshit attempts to assert that Bcash SV has some kind of honest and/or redeeming value... which even you cannot really believe your own bullshit in that direction.. as somac had pointed out to you.... yeah right...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


Anywhoooo, ...thanks for saving (even if only partially and inadvertently) xhomerx10... I had been starting to kind of grow fond of the guy.. and not sure what I personally would have done without him.. too many ways to list .......  Wink    Tongue

 AWww JJG!  You're making me cry and my wife jealous.  

Hahahaha

I had anticipated that you were going to rag on me for using past tense (which I just felt flowed better).


Regarding your wife, she needs to learn that "sharing is caring."    Cheesy Cheesy

Edit:  Whoops.  I almost forgot to add the nohomo part.... ..


Better late than never.... #nohomo.
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January 25, 2020, 01:44:42 AM

Steal money from "professional" traders?

Lawl. What a joke.

Bitcoin traders are basically gamblers who are aren't smart enough to realize that it's the exchanges who make the money. Those with deep enough pockets to manipulate the market may be able to earn short-term more than exchange fees and fiat transfer costs but the real gains are made by long-term growth.

Giving your bitcoins to an exchange to hold for you is just plain stupid. Not your keys, not your coins. The prudent investor avoids the internet, "wallets", passwords, etc. Do you understand dual-key cryptography? Simply  protect your private keys. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. When the day comes that your coins are worth many times what they're worth now, you'll be glad to be able to sweep small addresses.
Exchanges like CME or Bakkt are regulated, so they can't manipulate their market.

What about all the people who bought Bitcoin 2 years ago? How much did they earn as of now?

Those who paid over $30 in 2011 would have been way down when it was worth barely $5 in 2012. Those who paid over $1000 in 2013 would have been way down when it fell below $200 in 2015.

The smart people are the ones with the foresight to hold on to the coins they had while prices fell, and accumulate even more coins while they were cheap.

Even at the rock bottom price of $3.2k a year ago, those who bought for $1000 were doing pretty well. Those who stocked up at $5 or $30, or $200 are more than pleased with their investments.

When bitcoins are valued in 6 digits, these 4 digit prices will be seen as a bargain.
6 digits? you mean 6  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy no?
If you want I can bet 100$ against 50$ of yours that Bitcoin won't be at 6 digits in one year.  Wink
You are seriously still dreaming of lambos in 2020?  Cheesy
I'm observing $82xx as of now...  Grin
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January 25, 2020, 02:00:15 AM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

Steal money from "professional" traders?

Lawl. What a joke.

Bitcoin traders are basically gamblers who are aren't smart enough to realize that it's the exchanges who make the money. Those with deep enough pockets to manipulate the market may be able to earn short-term more than exchange fees and fiat transfer costs but the real gains are made by long-term growth.

Giving your bitcoins to an exchange to hold for you is just plain stupid. Not your keys, not your coins. The prudent investor avoids the internet, "wallets", passwords, etc. Do you understand dual-key cryptography? Simply  protect your private keys. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. When the day comes that your coins are worth many times what they're worth now, you'll be glad to be able to sweep small addresses.
Exchanges like CME or Bakkt are regulated, so they can't manipulate their market.

What about all the people who bought Bitcoin 2 years ago? How much did they earn as of now?

Those who paid over $30 in 2011 would have been way down when it was worth barely $5 in 2012. Those who paid over $1000 in 2013 would have been way down when it fell below $200 in 2015.

The smart people are the ones with the foresight to hold on to the coins they had while prices fell, and accumulate even more coins while they were cheap.

Even at the rock bottom price of $3.2k a year ago, those who bought for $1000 were doing pretty well. Those who stocked up at $5 or $30, or $200 are more than pleased with their investments.

When bitcoins are valued in 6 digits, these 4 digit prices will be seen as a bargain.
6 digits? you mean 6  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy no?
If you want I can bet 100$ against 50$ of yours that Bitcoin won't be at 6 digits in one year.  Wink
You are seriously still dreaming of lambos in 2020?  Cheesy
I'm observing $82xx as of now...  Grin


W0w, you really are a certain kind of special, ask Homer to make you a cap.

Here's a recommendation.



You might have to fight her for it.
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January 25, 2020, 02:19:25 AM
Merited by makrospex (1)

fuck me

headed down to the Winchester for a pint

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf
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