Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

There may be 1000 people infected, but the recovery takes 2-4 weeks for most people (from the time they start to show symptoms). This means that it will take about 4 weeks for those 1000 people to register as "recovered", in the mean time many more people are infected. The numbers are always shifting. Both the deaths and the number of recoveries. You need to look at the infected numbers of weeks ago and compare those to the current death and recovery numbers to get the accuracy.

+1 Elwar. Would like to add that the infected/death ratio figures are probably way too high.  I felt sick a few weeks ago (probably just a cold) but it might have been Covid-19, who knows. Fully recovered without being tested or going to a hospital. Bitebits does not show up in the statistics.

I sneezed the other day... JJG does not show up in statistics, except as noted here in WO thread.   

[Searing]

Not looking good. I still think target is 6500 then maybe 200 weekly at 6. Not fucking liking this that's for sure. I much preferred 2016 but there wasn't a global crash going on then.

The problem is in a country like Italy ..in frigging full crisis mode...what are you gonna dump first? The easy to cash out, the speculative coin that you have made

a profit on since you mined/bought or acquired such? Or stocks or bonds or cash (not have) or whatever to fill up your very needed, and like all of us, empty

catastrophic/emergency fund?

Everything is falling in this Black Swan Pandemic effect.

My own 'bet' (dubious) is that IF the Stock Market 'manages' and the rest to somehow find a floor and go

sideways for a few days to a week, BTC/Crypto will bounce back harder, like the Plan B Alternative.

If, not BTC/Crypto is just another speculative asset and not

in any way a 'store of value' and we will be like everyone else, stuck in a HODL pattern for say, years until it recovers like the other speculative assets stocks, etc.

Sh*t that would suck! Doom or Boom and Chump or Champ time now boys and girls. Pucker up. This next week is likely to be the worst as that damn concept

of 'Reality' hits us right in the nuts.

I don't like what you're saying, but find it hard to disagree with you.

I re-read above, I did not like me or what I was saying much either....

What I should have been clear on ..IS if I am correct on the above...it is a temp thing...people will adjust have an emergency fund and adapt...then they will

look about and hell, it might take 6 months in the recession and go..hmmm....btc/crypto looks like a good buy now again....it is like any emergency I hope

first, you have to flush cash at the problem (liquidate BTC) and then you hoard the cash (in this case bitcoin) on the regrets that you had to splurge on

the emergency.

It is likely I am just making stuff up not to make myself feel better but ....hey...coping is as coping does.

I'm hoping easy-out with a reason, a black swan emergency,  will become an easy buy-in for the same reason that BTC/Crypto was liquidated so fast

....again for emergency reasons...in the future HODL..in case you have yet another emergency in the recession or for long term value.

again, likely I'm delusional from the pain today and just making stuff up on the fly to feel better about this cluster****.

brad

[UnDerDoG81]

Those whales use any reason to spread panic. Since 2014 in the game, used to this shit. Remember those times when China banned bitcoin 200 times and each time the whales spread panic about that...

[Lambie Slayer]

No need to act like panicking stock boyz who cry like babies at a 5 percent drop, Bitcoiners were built for big swings. Its all just noise on the way to 100k.

[kellrobinson]

This chart reflects the March 8 close on Bitstamp at $8033.70. 

Bitcoin does not close, and neither does bitstamp... 


 

The sun doesn't close, but it sets.

[JayJuanGee]

This chart reflects the March 8 close on Bitstamp at $8033.70. 

Bitcoin does not close, and neither does bitstamp... 


 

The sun doesn't close, but it sets.

Oooooo... touché.

[somac.]

No need to act like panicking stock boyz who cry like babies at a 5 percent drop, Bitcoiners were built for big swings. Its all just noise on the way to 100k.

Yes we are definitely going to 100k and this current global rout will probably even increase the speed that we get there. Money printing on the way.

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-skorea-impact-on-markets-and-economy.html

"Following the discharge of most patients, 11 of the 14 makeshift hospitals in Wuhan that were built for treatment of the new coronavirus have closed"

COVBULL-19 is fizzling out in China. Spring is here in a few days, and this little flu bug is running out of nursing home patients to take out. There are only so many 90 year olds with diabetes, high blood pressure, an respiratory problems, for this thing to take out.

Everyone will look back in a few years and marvel out how nocoiners freaked out about toilet paper.

[Biodom]

The man is a fooking LEGEND...

not yet, or at least not on this call.

[Lambie Slayer]

This is the time Bitcoiners were meant to shine. This is where we show we have the strongest hands of all, formed by massive swings over and over through the years.

The other market participants are about to see how resilient we really are in contrast to their panic driven behavior. And when they do they will come in droves to worship King Bitcoin and follow his loyal disciples.

[JayJuanGee]

No need to act like panicking stock boyz who cry like babies at a 5 percent drop, Bitcoiners were built for big swings. Its all just noise on the way to 100k.

Yes we are definitely going to 100k and this current global rout will probably even increase the speed that we get there. Money printing on the way.

Maybe global pandemic and a lot of the hoopla and hype about that can allow for the economy to correct, to some extent without having to engage in money printing?  If the global economy goes through a major correction, then it is merely blamed on a pandemic, and at the same time, there is an ability to reign in bullshit irresponsibilities in regards to various fiats, no?  Why does global pandemic automatically result in more currency printing when allowing a crash can actually accomplish similar kinds of corrective mechanisms that are actually needed in terms of allowing bubbles to play themselves out in free market kinds of ways, no?

I am not saying that bitcoin still would not do well in this situation, but I doubt that such a situation of a major correction in the fiat market (which seems to be far over due) automatically results in more printing, especially if there are many BIG players that realize that the overexuberance in money printing is way out of hand, anyhow.

It is not like everyone in the regular fiat world is stupid in terms of engaging in various strategies to attempt to continue to prop matters up and to allow some corrections to play themselves out, especially if such corrections are merely born by poor people, even though the status quo power players might get stuck in policies that are hard to get out of on a quite frequent basis.

[bkbirge]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/over-dollar21-billion-wiped-off-cryptocurrency-market-in-24-hours-after-massive-oil-price-plunge

"For those who have long term investment horizons, bitcoin is absolutely a buy during these dips," Jehan Chu, co-founder of Kenetic Capital, an investor in blockchain start-ups told CNBC. "We can expect more of this volatility sparked by macro health and financial shocks, but ultimately long term investments in the digital future and it's key asset Bitcoin will be a winning strategy"

[Ibian]

Pity I missed all the TP/bidet/towel/ass-shit talk, I have a feeling that I would have thrived.

Can we elaborate on disposable baby wipes, now that oil is down please?
I've been using them for years.

Seriously, TP sucks.
Wipe off your ass perfectly clean (so you think) with TP, and then use a baby wipe.
You're welcome.

Basically it beats the shower and the hassle.
Especially if your ass is hairy.

Anyway, back to COV.

Thailand may be bass ackwards but at least they have the toilet thing figured out.

Can say from experience that they have not figured it out. They get clogged ALL THE TIME. It's one of the two Great Thai Curses (the other being ladyboys. they are grabby and do not understand a no).

[serveria.com]

I am buying here some. I don't care if it goes lower. I can keep my sanity till it its $3k.

Why am I buying? Because I know for sure it will be back above $9k again. Might be tomorrow, might be next year but it will happen.

Vegeta will make a comeback.

$7750 btw fuck. MasterLuc is having a party.

Masterluc said 6k...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I am buying here some. I don't care if it goes lower. I can keep my sanity till it its $3k.

Why am I buying? Because I know for sure it will be back above $9k again. Might be tomorrow, might be next year but it will happen.

Vegeta will make a comeback.

$7750 btw fuck. MasterLuc is having a party.

Masterluc said 6k...

Pretty sure he predicted it as normal market behaviour too & not as a result of a load of pathetic weak hands crumbling because of people getting flu.

[JSRAW]

[mindrust]

Master Luc didn't give us a price. He just pointed out the supports and resistances. Please learn to read charts.

%20 drop from 10k+ is enough for me to call him a legend.

It may go to 6k or not from here. I am happy with what I got. God bless him. Added some more cheap corn to my stash. Yay

[Ibian]

One thing to think about with the numbers of infected/recovered vs deaths..

I spent about 7 years doing modeling and simulations of military radio networks. We would have fake traffic passing through the network and at the end check to see the throughput.

We did a few simulations that had a short time period because it was simulating a full division battle. The results were very poor. A huge percentage of messages did not finish sending. The government would not accept such poor numbers so we were scrambling trying to figure out such low performance.

As I started combing through the failed messages I started seeing a pattern. Nothing was really blocking them, it was just that the simulation was cut off soon after they were sent (Like sending a message at 9:59 and the simulation ends at 10:00.

So I stopped all transmissions at the previous end of simulation and continued until about double the time. The throughput shot up to close to 99% (the government was satisfied with our numbers and funding continued).


There may be 1000 people infected, but the recovery takes 2-4 weeks for most people (from the time they start to show symptoms). This means that it will take about 4 weeks for those 1000 people to register as "recovered", in the mean time many more people are infected. The numbers are always shifting. Both the deaths and the number of recoveries. You need to look at the infected numbers of weeks ago and compare those to the current death and recovery numbers to get the accuracy.

Yeah let's look at that. 3% by the way The Experts calculate it now. But the infected number needs to be halved four times let's say.

Out of 100 infected we have 3 dead. So cut the infected number in half to 50... 25... 12.5... 6.25. We are looking at a 50% death rate with that method. Even at only 2 weeks it's at 12%.

You guys still wanna calculate things this way? Or can we finally start using the correct method, death/(death+cured)?

[Lambie Slayer]

Who panic sold the bottom?

We are in the Bargain Buy Zone for 2020, it wont be around for long.

[somac.]

No need to act like panicking stock boyz who cry like babies at a 5 percent drop, Bitcoiners were built for big swings. Its all just noise on the way to 100k.

Yes we are definitely going to 100k and this current global rout will probably even increase the speed that we get there. Money printing on the way.

Maybe global pandemic and a lot of the hoopla and hype about that can allow for the economy to correct, to some extent without having to engage in money printing?  If the global economy goes through a major correction, then it is merely blamed on a pandemic, and at the same time, there is an ability to reign in bullshit irresponsibilities in regards to various fiats, no?  Why does global pandemic automatically result in more currency printing when allowing a crash can actually accomplish similar kinds of corrective mechanisms that are actually needed in terms of allowing bubbles to play themselves out in free market kinds of ways, no?

I am not saying that bitcoin still would not do well in this situation, but I doubt that such a situation of a major correction in the fiat market (which seems to be far over due) automatically results in more printing, especially if there are many BIG players that realize that the overexuberance in money printing is way out of hand, anyhow.

It is not like everyone in the regular fiat world is stupid in terms of engaging in various strategies to attempt to continue to prop matters up and to allow some corrections to play themselves out, especially if such corrections are merely born by poor people, even though the status quo power players might get stuck in policies that are hard to get out of on a quite frequent basis.

For central banks, a correction is fine so long as credit (debt) is still being created by the private banks. If credit shrinks instead and hence the money supply with it, then we have deflation and that can not be tolerated for long. Deflation will destroy the modern monetary system and, governments and the institutions with it. Therefore, the CBs have to do what ever it takes to prevent this, and if they see credit creation decrease and even look like it is going negative they will print big time (and direct that printing where ever necessary) to try and get credit/debt going again.

To understand why a decrease in credit creation is so deadly is to understand how money is created. Hint, the CBs don't create most of the money (only the cash component) they instead generally create cash reserves. It is the private banks who expand our money supply (97% of supply is private bank money. Also peasants are only allowed to use CB money in form of cash not electronic). In short if private bank money is not being created (through new debt) nobody will be able to pay the interest component because there is not enough money in the system to do so.

So, this pandemic is a deflationary event, either through illness or panic, doesn't matter which. Therefore the CBs need to start printing those reserves up pronto to counter any deflation (contraction in private credit).