Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I mean, even if you don't agree to meet with any of us shorter-term WO plebs personally, I hope that at least you will allow some of us to visit your island, and maybe provide free appetizers?  No pressure.

 

I am a simple man Jay, with fairly simple tastes in life.  And have little need for much possessions.  And aside from probably NOT being in the "can buy an island if bitcoin does one or two more runs" category, I'd likely not buy one even if I could.

That said, there is no doubt that I could pick up a vegetable tray or salami platter from Krogers on the way to a WO meetup some day if that mythical event ever happens.  I mean... I'm even good for that if bitcoin only goes DOWN from here...

Not enough to buy an island, but enough to buy a food platter whether BTC prices go up or not...

What to make of it?

I will have to ponder the matter longer, and maybe some day, I could formulate a witty response.

You have truly and literally stumped the chump, this time.  

This was exactly the position I wished for you to be in after my posting.  I see no reason to divulge in any way or to any extent how many bitcoin I hold. But unfortunately another effect of having been in the space for so long there is no doubt that just about all my holdings are known thanks to my reuse of addresses in early days and my various counterparties over the years.  Oh well...  This is also why I think Monero actually has a use case.

Apart from your name dropping a shitcoin... which I am going to act like you did not say it... hahahahahaha.... let me see if I can discuss the other part of your post.

I am having a kind of similar dilemma with regard to privacy to some of my coins too, and I am thinking that there are ways to spend coins slowly.. or to mix them or to coin join them or to get caught into obscurity slowly in such a way that there are not really any red flags that are raised.

So, sure there are stacks of coins that any of us might have within our control that are more KYC/AML and there are other coins that have a bit more obscurity and maybe they have not been moved for a long time or there might be some questions regarding who is the owner or controller of some of the coins.

In other words, I agree that it is likely that a lot of us can say "mistakes have been made" over the years... And maybe in my case, I can proclaim that I might have multiple addresses containing between .001BTC and .63697BTC each.. but I still would not mind figuring out ways to move parts of those coins into various kinds of coin joining or mixing or whatever addresses.... whether I am doing it on the 1st layer or some 2nd or 3rd layer or whatever.  

In no way am I advocating the avoidance of taxes or criminal activities, but instead, I am trying to suggest that there are likely ways in which bitcoin can be maneuvered in ways to treat bitcoin like cash in terms of various kinds of privacy and various kinds of "it's none of your fucking business" that I bought prOn with my BTC or that I have a tendency to fill up at x, y or z gasoline station...  

So, for example, in my above rendition of my BTC holdings situation, my largest BTC addresses might currently be valued in the arena approaching $6,500 - but maybe if BTC does another 10x or 100x from here in the coming years, then some of my BTC addresses might have even bigger quantities in terms of their dollar valuations.. so there may likely be incentives for me to either move my coins now, or to wait for some of the privacy tools and practice to improve (perhaps?) to move them over the years in ways that allow small amounts of moving without really drawing attention to my transactional matters.  

Let's say for example one of my larger BTC addresses might have a sending of .01 BTC and then a change output of .62697 BTC  and maybe some other amount that goes towards the fees, too.   When the BTC price is at it's current price of about $9,900, the send amount and even the change amount are each less than $10k ($99 and $6,207 respectively), then currently, there might not be much attention given to my transactions, but if the BTC price were to go up 10x from today's price (presuming that we might go there someday soon), then perhaps attention could come to a transaction that has a .01 BTC and then a change output of .62697 BTC.. because then, even the change is worth about $62k rather than $6.2k.  

So, there might be some threshold amounts of BTC that are preferred to stay below, and maybe even future regulations might change our ponderings on such privacy subject matter and how diligent that we believe that we need to be in regards to such privacy and/or preparing for the future, too.

I am conjecturing (perhaps erroneously) that through the years some of the security and privacy through obscurity is going to improve, including that hopefully some of the privacy tools within bitcoin will improve too, including perhaps some tools that cause (or incentivize) almost every BTC transaction to become automatically coin joined or mixed in some kind of way... and surely, some of the technicals regarding how the changes are achieved remain a bit beyond my current understandings and expertise regarding how some of those practices and/or tools may be achieved and improved in bitcoin, even though from time to time, I hear and read discussions and proposals from seemingly very knowledgeable peeps in the bitcoin space in regards to some of these bitcoin privacy improvement topics.  

So I wonder if the entity that is most likely setting tons of sells above spot and then market selling once those get gobbled up a single person or if it is a group?

It certainly seems like it is most likely the same actor(s) since the basic modus operandi is the same each time.

Seems strange to want to sell so much into what seems like a fairly bullish setup.  I dunno.  Maybe that's why I don't have my island yet.

Exactly!!!!

That's why we cannot have nice things.

[sirazimuth]

.......Understanding how is not really the important part, understanding why is and if you understand that then feel free to share.

If you are referring to the “how” and “why” of the existence of the Universe then I beg to differ
(if not then nm rest of my post)
How the universe came into existence is a whole branch of science aka cosmology and is pretty
important in advancing human knowledge (in my book anyway).
Asking why the Universe exists is kind of silly imo. The question assumes the Universe has a
purpose. Unless you buy into all that magic sky fairy crap and all the superstitious nonsense that
follows (sadly, like most of the human population) aka all religions, you know the Universe has no
purpose. It just is.
Just for shits and giggles I googled “why does the Universe exist” and the 1st result was a bunch of
godswill mumbo jumbo....what a surprise, lol .

[Torque]

Is this some kind of algorithmic trading?
Bizarro.

...at least coinbase didn't glitch, apparently

Comical manipulation

[Toxic2040]

 

off the 1m charts kittah...it is not healthy    #dyor

4h



D

#stronghands

[JayJuanGee]

Is this some kind of algorithmic trading?
Bizarro.

...at least coinbase didn't glitch, apparently

Comical manipulation

Huh? 

These kinds of market behaviors happen all the time, and you especially should be expecting attempts to keep the BTC price within a range in bitcoin as compared with other markets because bitcoin is still pretty damned immature, as a market, and there is a lot of ability to get away with attempting to control the price, but in the end, who the fuck is going to win?  The manipulators?

They can only manipulate so long.

Remember, Torque, you were whining about manipulation at $350 and $500, and what the fuck happened to those BTC prices?  The manipulators would have loved to keep BTC prices below $500 and even below 4 digits, but at a certain point, they no longer had any choice.

Yeah, manipulate all the fuck that you want, does not mean that they can keep it up forever.  Do you really believe that the manipulators wanted the BTC price to go up to $19,666 in December 2017?  They would have preferred to have kept it down.  But they did not have a choice.

In other words, fuck these claims about manipulation, and sure they are going to do it and sure they are going to try, and sure we are going to find out if they are going to be able to suppress bitcoin similarly to the ways that they have been able to suppress gold and silver, and my hunch is that they are going to be in for a rude awakening at some point, even if they might have some temporary bouts of success to temporarily manipulate bitcoin, but in the end, there is likely ONLY so much manipulation that they are going to able to achieve with king daddy...

TLDR: claims of manipulation are overrated...   Can you manipulate time?  Can you manipulate math?  Can you manipulate bitcoin?

[vapourminer]

is that a bass drum roll I hear way off in the distance?

Drums. Drums in the deep. We cannot get out.

[slowlyslowly]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/

reforms were well intentioned, but, as we’ll see, they haven’t kept the banks from falling back into old, bad habits. After the housing crisis, subprime CDOs naturally fell out of favor. Demand shifted to a similar—and similarly risky—instrument, one that even has a similar name: the CLO, or collateralized loan obligation.

Same old shit, different name, coming soon.

You gotta love CLOs and all that stuff. The more they exist/persist the more appealing is bitcoin and what it offers. Many more people would own bitcoin than do now if they had any idea of what has gone on/is going on in the financial sector but it is too complicated (and boring to them) to understand. An entity that has bank or similar words in its name is treated by Joe Public like a God. It is changing slowly. Here in New Zealand we have a Kiwisaver product where you put money in for retirement. You can sign up to several providers to handle it for you (often a bank) and also each provider offers you investment options eg conservative plan , aggressive plan etc. With the downturn in things people have seen that in the short term aggressive plans (lots of shares in the portfolio) means you can actually go backwards for a while. But more fundamentally providers have been presenting savers with unbelievable assessments of risk ie on a sale of 1 to 10 the really conservative “risk” products score a 4 and the aggressive stuff a 3 - to most people they are almost the same yet returns have shown the risk 3 things have been much less costly to them on the way down than risk 4 - not to say 10% worse but up to 50% worse. TLDR; coronavirus might improve the level of debate about risk and expose the financial sector to more debate/scrutiny and what comes out will be alarming enough to get some into the bitcoin family

[Torque]

Huh?  

These kinds of market behaviors happen all the time, and you especially should be expecting attempts to keep the BTC price within a range in bitcoin as compared with other markets because bitcoin is still pretty damned immature, as a market, and there is a lot of ability to get away with attempting to control the price, but in the end, who the fuck is going to win?  The manipulators?

They can only manipulate so long.

No shit Captain Obvious, I know it won't go on forever. So does everyone else here.  

And thanks for finally admitting that Bitcoin market manipulation is a real thing. I remember when you spent the first few years on this thread denying its very existence, and lambasting anyone who said otherwise.

[Hueristic]

So I wonder if the entity that is most likely setting tons of sells above spot and then market selling once those get gobbled up a single person or if it is a group?

The name of this group is well known - the plunge protection team! Mnuchin ordered them to keep bitcoin under 10k. If they fuck up they'll be sent to the Guantanamo detention camp. They dump both gold and bitcoin at the same time on the "regulated" markets. The difference between the real markets and the "regulated" markets is that on the "regulated" markets you can sell something you don't have pledging margin collateral of newly printed Fed $$$. This is what they do and what they do with every round has less and less effect. They still have couple of months before the dollar based fiat world implodes!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/mnuchin-says-us-will-ensure-bitcoin-doesnt-become-like-anonymous.html

Key Points

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says the U.S. will police cryptocurrencies with “very, very strong” regulations.
    “We’re going to make sure that bitcoin doesn’t become the equivalent of Swiss-numbered bank accounts,” Mnuchin tells CNBC.

[Hueristic]

.......Understanding how is not really the important part, understanding why is and if you understand that then feel free to share.

If you are referring to the “how” and “why” of the existence of the Universe then I beg to differ
(if not then nm rest of my post)
How the universe came into existence is a whole branch of science aka cosmology and is pretty
important in advancing human knowledge (in my book anyway).
Asking why the Universe exists is kind of silly imo. The question assumes the Universe has a
purpose. Unless you buy into all that magic sky fairy crap and all the superstitious nonsense that
follows (sadly, like most of the human population) aka all religions, you know the Universe has no
purpose. It just is.
Just for shits and giggles I googled “why does the Universe exist” and the 1st result was a bunch of
godswill mumbo jumbo....what a surprise, lol .

You just made my point.

[JayJuanGee]

Huh?  

These kinds of market behaviors happen all the time, and you especially should be expecting attempts to keep the BTC price within a range in bitcoin as compared with other markets because bitcoin is still pretty damned immature, as a market, and there is a lot of ability to get away with attempting to control the price, but in the end, who the fuck is going to win?  The manipulators?

They can only manipulate so long.

No shit Captain Obvious, I know it won't go on forever. So does everyone else here.  

And thanks for finally admitting that Bitcoin market manipulation is a real thing. I remember when you spent the first few years on this thread denying its very existence, and lambasting anyone who said otherwise.

I don't know why you need to take my battles with you on this topic so personally.  I am largely attacking your arguments rather than you, and largely my assertion has continued to be that you have a tendency to overexaggerate concepts of manipulation, and I have never denied that manipulation exists, but instead that you have been giving the practice way more weight than it deserves.

Surely, you can likely recall when I used to proclaim that you were too much into numerology, and exaggerations in that regard, and so even though any of us likely recognize that there tends to be gravitation of the BTC price around certain numerological points, it still does not legitimize placing unwarranted levels of emphasis on various manipulations that are taking place.

So yeah, in the end, I suppose that we have some differences in opinion regarding how much weight to give to the concept of manipulation and to give very many shits about it, and I also recall that you were whining the shit out of bearish scenarios because you thought that BTC prices would not be able to go up beyond certain points because the "manipulators" were not going to allow it.  You would think that through the past years, you would have gotten a bit more out of the manipulation rut, but instead, I suppose each of us have some of our framework preferences that we tend to rely upon, even if they are based on certain levels of nonsense, futility... and outweighted conspiracy theory skepticisms.

Hey, Torque, I agree with a lot of the things that you say, and your various macro-level observations, but even you should realize that you have both a tendency to go overboard with your conspiracy angle and your seemingly want to concede way more powers to status quo institutions than those fucktwats deserve and even taking matters way more personally than they should be taken. 

What you say, good ole buddy, can't we just get along?  Even though you have a lot of dumb ideas?   

 

[Hueristic]

Hey, Torque, I agree with a lot of the things that you say, and your various macro-level observations, but even you should realize that you have both a tendency to go overboard with your conspiracy angle and your seemingly want to concede way more powers to status quo institutions than those fucktwats deserve and even taking matters way more personally than they should be taken.  

Underestimating those fucktards is why we have not seen another ATH.

All bitcoiners need to stay away from derivatives and grow the market and that is how we win.

[Hueristic]

Funny I didn't know amazon called the shots?

Amazon bans police use of facial recognition technology for one year

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/amazon-bans-police-use-of-facial-recognition-technology-for-one-year.html

[machasm]

I really struggle to get in to the heads of some of these sellers.
Why would anyone want to give up an asset so valuable for some filthy fiat that banks have an infinite amount of?
Why trade hard money for soft money?
I understand that you can't buy everything with bitcoin yet so you may need to sell a small amount for necessaties but 1000s of BTC makes no sense.
Maybe super yatch manufacturers need to start accepting BTC as payment.

[strawbs]

.......Understanding how is not really the important part, understanding why is and if you understand that then feel free to share.

If you are referring to the “how” and “why” of the existence of the Universe then I beg to differ
(if not then nm rest of my post)
How the universe came into existence is a whole branch of science aka cosmology and is pretty
important in advancing human knowledge (in my book anyway).
Asking why the Universe exists is kind of silly imo. The question assumes the Universe has a
purpose. Unless you buy into all that magic sky fairy crap and all the superstitious nonsense that
follows (sadly, like most of the human population) aka all religions, you know the Universe has no
purpose. It just is.
Just for shits and giggles I googled “why does the Universe exist” and the 1st result was a bunch of
godswill mumbo jumbo....what a surprise, lol .

You just made my point.

And you just made my point too

[Torque]

Hey, Torque, I agree with a lot of the things that you say, and your various macro-level observations

Thanks

but even you should realize that you have both a tendency to go overboard with your conspiracy angle and your seemingly want to concede way more powers to status quo institutions than those fucktwats deserve and even taking matters way more personally than they should be taken.

No not really no

What you say, good ole buddy, can't we just get along?

Sure

Even though you have a lot of dumb ideas?  
 

You mean dumber than your massive wall-of-text word vomit ideas? Doubt it.  

[Hueristic]

I really struggle to get in to the heads of some of these sellers.
Why would anyone want to give up an asset so valuable for some filthy fiat that banks have an infinite amount of?
Why trade hard money for soft money?
I understand that you can't buy everything with bitcoin yet so you may need to sell a small amount for necessaties but 1000s of BTC makes no sense.
Maybe super yatch manufacturers need to start accepting BTC as payment.

These exchanges are not differentiating between actual coins being traded and leverage therefore giving the impression the markets are moving when it is all in house fuckery. And people are so stupid they are buying and selling actual coins at those prices. On the bright side it cannot go on forever and eventually the house of cards should come down but in the mean time the big players are basically skimming the cream off the market cap.

[somac.]

Yeah, manipulate all the fuck that you want, does not mean that they can keep it up forever. 

I think what we are seeing here is the manipulation that has been going on for last couple years now. In a bear market it works great for them, they can beat down the price and it stays down and goes lower. Try this this continuously in a bull market though and your beat down gets bought up and you don't get to re-enter at the low prices.

As the manipulators coins start to dwindle, they get worried and stop, they learn that despite being a whale the market is actually much bigger than them. At this point prices start rising and then you have a 2016 happen, followed by a 2017.

[Hueristic]

.......Understanding how is not really the important part, understanding why is and if you understand that then feel free to share.

If you are referring to the “how” and “why” of the existence of the Universe then I beg to differ
(if not then nm rest of my post)
How the universe came into existence is a whole branch of science aka cosmology and is pretty
important in advancing human knowledge (in my book anyway).
Asking why the Universe exists is kind of silly imo. The question assumes the Universe has a
purpose. Unless you buy into all that magic sky fairy crap and all the superstitious nonsense that
follows (sadly, like most of the human population) aka all religions, you know the Universe has no
purpose. It just is.
Just for shits and giggles I googled “why does the Universe exist” and the 1st result was a bunch of
godswill mumbo jumbo....what a surprise, lol .

You just made my point.

And you just made my point too

Lol, not quite but close enough as I will not spend the time necessary but the universe will explain it to you if you have the ability to listen, it has more than enough time.

[Hueristic]

Yeah, manipulate all the fuck that you want, does not mean that they can keep it up forever. 

I think what we are seeing here is the manipulation that has been going on for last couple years now. In a bear market it works great for them, they can beat down the price and it stays down and goes lower. Try this this continuously in a bull market though and your beat down gets bought up and you don't get to re-enter at the low prices.

As the manipulators coins start to dwindle, they get worried and stop, they learn that despite being a whale the market is actually much bigger than them. At this point prices start rising and then you have a 2016 happen, followed by a 2017.

Well the sad truth about "them" is they go Brrrrrrrr.