Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Threebits]

Is there a way to estimate, from the blockchain or other sources, the number and size of bitcoin transactions that are payments for goods and services, rather than due to speculation, investment, hot/cold storage transfers, etc?

Is it a question of "chicken or egg, which is first", at the beginning stage?

I think the two classes of transactions can be distinguished in theory. Class A ( "payment for goods and services using bitcoin") is transfer of bitcoin from a customer's address to an address belonging to someone who sells goods and services unrelated to crypto-coins, in exchange for said goods and services being provided to the customer. 

Class B is pretty much everything else, such as transfer to/from a bitcoin exchange's wallet, transfers between people or companies in exchange of cash or other coins, etc.

Right now, purchasing with cryptocoins may involve up to three blockchain transfers: customer buys crypto at an exchange with dollars, sends to merchant, the merchant sells them for euros.  I would count only the middle transaction as "class A".  The other two could be put in a separate class C, "bitcoin transfers directly connected to class A"; but since they can be widely separated in time and lumped with other transfers, it doesn't seem to be a useful idea, even in theory.

Purchasing "with cyptocoins" today may also involve zero transfers, if the customer gives dollars to a "bitcoin-based" payment processor who then gives euros to the merchant, without actually moving any bitcoins.  I would not count those (non)transfers in Class A, since the payment processor is acting just like a traditional bank.

I understand distinguishing transactions into A and B is for tracing the success of bitcoin? What is that theory exactly?

I tend to see either A or B will  lead bitcoin to success, just on different levels. A, success as a currency. B, success as internet gold.

Inherent in nature as a transfer method, if bitcoin will succeed as internet gold(class B), it will succeed as a currency (class A)，by nature.

If that will be true, can we just include ABC all as adoption?   How do we check adoption growth?

[adamstgBit]

MtGox's FUD cloud is still blocking the sky. not sure if its going to rain....
market seems to be holding its ground.
with MtGox DB being analyzed and two bit Idiot trying to make some noise, we have a very interesting week ahead of us.

[JayJuanGee]

wowz almost 45BTC raised for dorian. nice nice

What if he does not want them? lol.

there is already a  plan for that.. convert to dollars and offer dollars.. if he does not want then donate to his charity and then if he does not name a charity, then it goes to MOI.... me...

[gentlemand]

MtGox's FUD cloud is still blocking the sky. not sure if its going to rain....
market seems to be holding its ground.
with MtGox DB being analyzed and two bit Idiot trying to make some noise, we have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

[JayJuanGee]

MtGox's FUD cloud is still blocking the sky. not sure if its going to rain....
market seems to be holding its ground.
with MtGox DB being analyzed and two bit Idiot trying to make some noise, we have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

That is one strange and anti-climactic release.   

Initially, he said that he had goods, and he is saying that he still has goods, but releasing the goods will likely NOT cause the effect of the resignation of two bitcoin foundation members.  Therefore, he is going to regroup and get back to his life....

And, really he does NOT disclose whether he will get back to releasing anything at any point in the near future, which causes me to believe that this issue is dead... at least for a few weeks - though TwoBit has made himself out as a bit of an admitted drama queen... so he may be back, sooner than we otherwise expected with this theme of bitcoin foundation corruption.

[686f646c]

i guess this going to be another week in the front pages, i wonder how many people in north america or europe never heard of bitcoin today? 30%?

[billyjoeallen]

If the ratio of moneyflows to market price does not change, the cycles will continue unabated.  Their remarkable regularity is likely to result in attempts to front-run the cycle, and hence accelerate it.  That may also tend to blunt the extremes a bit, smoothing them over a diversity of participants.  Persistently retaining value will be likely to incentivize greater moneyflows, however, now that the financial world has actually caught wind of crypto.

Maybe that's what is happening now. According to the pattern, there must be a rise now, so whales are buying. But they are doing it too soon, there is no real grassroot push yet, so the price slides back.  

That's exactly what's happening now and anyone not front-running the cycles is just giving money away. For example, the weekend dip is an intentional attempt to incite panic and scoop up cheap coins. this weekend was moderately successful, but the probability that the price will recover above $650 in the next 24 hours is significantly higher than 50/50. I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches $670 tomorrow.

Yer not gonna see a grassroots push until after we hit ~$750 again. It doesn't matter. There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.

I'm not psychic. I''m just that good.

[dreamspark]

Data reveals:
Largest  balance is 44K BTC which has not been accessed since 13/7/12
Next largest is 43K BTC last accessed on 25/2/14
It continues with 10 more  5000+ BTC balances where the accounts have not been accessed 2012.

Wow, that is so sad. Thats an absolute fortune 

[molecular]

wowz almost 45BTC raised for dorian. nice nice

What if he does not want them? lol.

he will get fiat anyway. Andreas will trade the coins end of march.

[flynn]

MtGox's FUD cloud is still blocking the sky. not sure if its going to rain....
market seems to be holding its ground.
with MtGox DB being analyzed and two bit Idiot trying to make some noise, we have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

[600watt]

MtGox's FUD cloud is still blocking the sky. not sure if its going to rain....
market seems to be holding its ground.
with MtGox DB being analyzed and two bit Idiot trying to make some noise, we have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

That is one strange and anti-climactic release.   

Initially, he said that he had goods, and he is saying that he still has goods, but releasing the goods will likely NOT cause the effect of the resignation of two bitcoin foundation members.  Therefore, he is going to regroup and get back to his life....

And, really he does NOT disclose whether he will get back to releasing anything at any point in the near future, which causes me to believe that this issue is dead... at least for a few weeks - though TwoBit has made himself out as a bit of an admitted drama queen... so he may be back, sooner than we otherwise expected with this theme of bitcoin foundation corruption.

i have to repeat myself: what an idiot.

[adamstgBit]

stressed out over bitcoin price fluctuations?

print this out and color it in.



it helps 

[podyx]

wait? was that a train riding by??

nevermind, i mistook that for a couple of bears on the sideline

i already am on the MADAFAKING TRAIN

[Davyd05]

it's Monday SOMEWHERE lol

[KeyserSoze]

Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

The mouse that roared. Just another loudmouth Neo-Maxi-Zoom-Dweebie.

[wilfried]

MtGox's FUD cloud is still blocking the sky. not sure if its going to rain....
market seems to be holding its ground.
with MtGox DB being analyzed and two bit Idiot trying to make some noise, we have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/
has eliminated the last piece of credibility.  

anyway, who is he? is he important to btc? i never had to deal with him, all i need is this forum, btc-wisdom and bitfinex!

[wilfried]

Data reveals:
Largest  balance is 44K BTC which has not been accessed since 13/7/12
Next largest is 43K BTC last accessed on 25/2/14
It continues with 10 more  5000+ BTC balances where the accounts have not been accessed 2012.

Wow, that is so sad. Thats an absolute fortune 

i think that table is heavily "photoshoped". wheres the index?

[oda.krell]

Serious question:

What's the point of the mtgox data dump, and even looking into it?

It only means we get a glimpse into their *internal* accounting... how does that tell us anything that we don't know already.

Possible that I'm missing something though, so please correct me if I didn't think this through enough...

[JorgeStolfi]

MtGox Database is leaked - using MagicalTux's own hacked blog and reddit account.  

Wow, some REAL DATA at least! Even if it is for a dead exchange...

When was that snapshot taken?

What are the total balances in BTC, US, JPY, etc?

Data reveals:
Largest  balance is 44K BTC which has not been accessed since 13/7/12
Next largest is 43K BTC last accessed on 25/2/14
It continues with 10 more  5000+ BTC balances where the accounts have not been accessed 2012.

That is quite interesting, so there were people who had huge amounts of BTC in an exchange and did not use them for years.

Could that be true for other exchanges, now (after the demise of MtGOX)?

[wilfried]

MtGox Database is leaked - using MagicalTux's own hacked blog and reddit account.  

Wow, some REAL DATA at least! Even if it is for a dead exchange...

When was that snapshot taken?

What are the total balances in BTC, US, JPY, etc?

Data reveals:
Largest  balance is 44K BTC which has not been accessed since 13/7/12
Next largest is 43K BTC last accessed on 25/2/14
It continues with 10 more  5000+ BTC balances where the accounts have not been accessed 2012.

That is quite interesting, so there were people who had huge amounts of BTC in an exchange and did not use them for years.

Could that be true for other exchanges, now (after the demise of MtGOX)?

or its accounts where all the .000000000x round-errors and other specialities went to..