Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday March 23

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-03-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3386 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 551 USD.



The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V_h/V_d, where V_h is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V_d is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

The trend assumed for the above prediction is the shifted exponential A + B*Q**(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 19, A = 2685.90, B = 1061.64, Q = 0.901.  The values of A and B were fitted by weighted least squares to the points Mar/19--22.  (A straight line would have fit almost as well, but shifted exponentials are more "physically" plausible than straight lines or pure exponentials.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.15 CNY/USD (it was 6.09 yesterday, 6.20 today).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-21, 21:56 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-03-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3477 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3462 CNY
Error: 15 CNY (~2.50 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 566 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 558 USD
Error: 8 USD

The larger error in the Bitstamp prediction could be due to a value of R (6.09) that was too low.

NOTE: Still looking for icons that are more exciting than dinosaurs but still within the limits of academic decorum.

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[cbutters]

what is up with the buys going on at BTC-E right now?  A ton of 0.014 BTC buys...repeatedly

Probably wants to keep the ticker green for psychological purposes, and probably wants to buy a bunch of coin as well.

[JorgeStolfi]

The issue I see you describing is with a finite number of monetary units (divisibility being ineffective because it results in asymmetrical distribution of wealth) how can the units be equitably distributed so an economy can effectively distribute resources and maximize participation?

More precisely, the problem that the world will face by adopting THE Bitcoin as the global currency is that the system will start out with ALL the money in the hands of a few thousand people and the "bankers" (miners).

Even if those "bitcoin barons" are generous and spend half of their BTC hoards in exchange for trifles, just to get the bitcoin economy started, they will still hold half of the money supply in the world.

What are the chances of the world being OK with that?

[byronbb]

Finally he said, "But..." and there was a long pause as he was out of arguments. I interrupted and said, "What you're realizing in this moment is the paradigm shift. Western Union, out of business. Credit card companies, out of business. Banks? Well, we will see."

He recognized it could change all payments, credit, cash, checks, international, and that it could possibly put a hurting on bank fees. He held onto the fact banks still make loans. I didn't have the heart to tell him that might wane if they couldn't make absurd money from fees. He'll figure it out.

Credit cards aren't going anywhere. People live on credit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[boumalo]

Finally he said, "But..." and there was a long pause as he was out of arguments. I interrupted and said, "What you're realizing in this moment is the paradigm shift. Western Union, out of business. Credit card companies, out of business. Banks? Well, we will see."

He recognized it could change all payments, credit, cash, checks, international, and that it could possibly put a hurting on bank fees. He held onto the fact banks still make loans. I didn't have the heart to tell him that might wane if they couldn't make absurd money from fees. He'll figure it out.

Credit cards aren't going anywhere. People live on credit.

Credit cards can be useful but paying with an android phone and a bitcoin qt app is even better

Paying with a smartwatch connected to a bitcoin app could be pretty nice as well

"Actually I have no strong feelings about what its price will do in the medium term.  Its price is not tied to anything, there is no argument that would justifify why its price now is 500$, why it was 800$ two months ago, why it can't be 5,000$ or 5$ tomorrow.  It is the result of suply and demand, sure, but the demand is due to perceptions of future prices that are not based on anything. "The market" thinks that it is worth 500$, but no trader can convincingly explain why."

=>that can be true for other markets, there are some fundamentals that tell us that a price of 500$ makes more sense than 5$

[KFR]

Have you bought a bitcoin yet Jorge?

[wilfried]

Might this be driving the market atm?:

*Redemption of shares will be allowed on a limited basis as of April 2014 with expectation of qualifying for public trading of the shares via the OTCQX® under the Alternative Reporting Standards.

http://www.bitcointrust.co/

Are the potential sellers who will want to lock in their 300% profit getting priced in?

who are the owners ? is this the Winklevoss twins Trust ?

No, this is the Secondmarket fund.

mmmm, their web page looks different from the last time I visited, and it seems that they lowered the minimum investment to $25K... I am really curious how will this work out for them and how will it effect the Eco-system, will be watching...

this fund´s performance curve is essentially the bitcoin price. so they put up a fund that is doing nothing else than buying in and dont let the people out.. poor millionaires, thy should have invested in gox instead

[billyjoeallen]

The issue I see you describing is with a finite number of monetary units (divisibility being ineffective because it results in asymmetrical distribution of wealth) how can the units be equitably distributed so an economy can effectively distribute resources and maximize participation?

More precisely, the problem that the world will face by adopting THE Bitcoin as the global currency is that the system will start out with ALL the money in the hands of a few thousand people and the "bankers" (miners).

Even if those "bitcoin barons" are generous and spend half of their BTC hoards in exchange for trifles, just to get the bitcoin economy started, they will still hold half of the money supply in the world.

What are the chances of the world being OK with that?

What are the chances that the world will be OK with a small group of central bankers controlling the money supply? Look, if people find Bitcoin useful and saves them money, then they are likely to use it, the same way people shop at Walmart even though the Waltons are extremely wealthy, pay low wages and buy stuff from China.

[boumalo]

Might this be driving the market atm?:

*Redemption of shares will be allowed on a limited basis as of April 2014 with expectation of qualifying for public trading of the shares via the OTCQX® under the Alternative Reporting Standards.

http://www.bitcointrust.co/

Are the potential sellers who will want to lock in their 300% profit getting priced in?

who are the owners ? is this the Winklevoss twins Trust ?

No, this is the Secondmarket fund.

mmmm, their web page looks different from the last time I visited, and it seems that they lowered the minimum investment to $25K... I am really curious how will this work out for them and how will it effect the Eco-system, will be watching...

this fund´s performance curve is essentially the bitcoin price. so they put up a fund that is doing nothing else than buying in and dont let the people out.. poor millionaires, thy should have invested in gox instead

You don't have to deal with exchanges or storage,  you will be able to sell your shares easily and your gains are taxable without having a headache

That being said i prefer having btc in cold storage like i prefer having gold in a safe than paper gold

[JayJuanGee]

a lot of us here know how great bitcoin is, and so we expect huge money in the shadows all the time.

I challenge this for two reasons;

- institutional money is timid to enter the exchnges. it is a lot of risk to hold millions of dollars on an unregulated exchange.

- not everyone thinks it's great! we are in good company, but never far from a bitcoin basher. we would be wise to expect corrections to natural fibonacci levels than guessing that the illuminati is ready in the wings to buy billions of dollars of bitcoin!

Let me remind you that facebook bought whatsapp for 19 billion USD.

One of the differences with bitcoin is that it remains very difficult for any new investor to come into bitcoin and to acquire large holdings without causing the price to be upwardly affected.  Certainly anything even approaching 1 billion in bitcoin would take time to acquire.

[JayJuanGee]

to me, only question of time when 530 $ is breach.

then it will be panic time.

+1

and 3400 in china

That is a really vague statement... matter of time could be hours, days, weeks, months ... If such thing does NOT happen in the next couple of weeks, then likely it will NEVER happen... but I presume you are estimating that this supposed slow erosion of BTC price(s) is happening over the weekend or maybe by  no later than next weekend?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

700 coins bid on bfx at 556-561 range

[JayJuanGee]

Fuck me, i blame it on those 350ug acid tabs, but i´m feelin bullish for BTC again.
I hope i won´t get burned for all that love about BTC(price).  
Just bought 30 new coins.
If we go below 490$ i will never post again, promised.

better get your last posts in quick bud : -)

I am sure that there would be many more posters here, who would be willing to take a bet that we will NOT breach $490 within the next two weeks.  Personally, I am ON THE FENCE about whether I would make such a bet. I am inclined to think that if we do breach $490, such a breach would be NO more than a few hours, and such breach would only come as a result of some major news or even some fake news that allows a certain level of panic and/or manipulation.  I have considerable difficulties even with any belief that we would breach $510 in the next couple of weeks, without something dramatic occurring.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[boumalo]

a lot of us here know how great bitcoin is, and so we expect huge money in the shadows all the time.

I challenge this for two reasons;

- institutional money is timid to enter the exchnges. it is a lot of risk to hold millions of dollars on an unregulated exchange.

- not everyone thinks it's great! we are in good company, but never far from a bitcoin basher. we would be wise to expect corrections to natural fibonacci levels than guessing that the illuminati is ready in the wings to buy billions of dollars of bitcoin!

Let me remind you that facebook bought whatsapp for 19 billion USD.

One of the differences with bitcoin is that it remains very difficult for any new investor to come into bitcoin and to acquire large holdings without causing the price to be upwardly affected.  Certainly anything even approaching 1 billion in bitcoin would take time to acquire.

All the bitcoins is valued the same as Whatsap, it is 2 very different things though : whatsap can make facebook a lot of money and has a HUGE clients base

Fuck me, i blame it on those 350ug acid tabs, but i´m feelin bullish for BTC again.
I hope i won´t get burned for all that love about BTC(price).  
Just bought 30 new coins.
If we go below 490$ i will never post again, promised.

better get your last posts in quick bud : -)

I am sure that there would be many more posters here, who would be willing to take a bet that we will NOT breach $490 within the next two weeks.  Personally, I am ON THE FENCE about whether I would make such a bet. I am inclined to think that if we do breach $490, such a breach would be NO more than a few hours, and such breach would only come as a result of some major news or even some fake news that allows a certain level of panic and/or manipulation.  I have considerable difficulties even with any belief that we would breach $510 in the next couple of weeks, without something dramatic occurring.

I don't know if we will brake the 510 or the 490 resistance but it doesn't seem that far away

[cbutters]

4 HR MACD crossover into the green on stamp!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Oh its you again, welcome back

Had you not "cashed out" around $100 mark you would have made alot more.

I recall you sold lot b4 that as well.

I feel your pain, so go on with your bearish campaign.

Typical sour grapes

" I didnt plant the grapes and i cant afford them, they must have been sour"

Yes... this probably explains the trolling nature of Tarmi's posts... .. but anyhow the answer seems to be obvious about the volume going down... with increased difficulties for whale manipulators to squeeze very many more coins out  of anyone... more or less they buying and selling from themselves.. and that is NOT convincing any real people to sell. .. a large majority of them have already sold.