Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

^^^ ... I've moved my 'safe' recommendation when speaking to bitcoin-curious from "DCA only what you can afford to lose" to "DCA on monthly options-expiry until you have XX% of net worth in bitcoin" ... where XX% is percentage that bitcoin makes up of global monetary float

... reasoning being, if the markets see fit to put XX% into bitcoin as monetary asset then that is the "correct" risk hedge at this time

... for the bitcoin bull, it's simply, "go all in" "only have in fiat what you can afford to lose"

[Biodom]

These dumb-ass 5% bitcoin sales are annoying: It's not worth cashing in coin to buy back lower as the ~21% Capital gains tax will wipe out any profit.

Oi.

IOW: Capital Gains Tax makes it so that selling to rebuy lower is a losing move unless the after-sale dip is more than the CGT rate. Not limited to bitcoin: it's the same with stonks or any other financial asset.

unless it is long term rate sale.

...and, first $80,800 in long term cap gains are FREE (if you are married).

[serveria.com]

OMG just visited coinmarketcap (the link El Dude posted):



Are you serious? What in the fucking world is this? Metapets? Animaltycoon? Doge Run? Totally a Rug Pull?  What a shitcoin shithole coinmarketcap has become...

[Biodom]

OMG just visited coinmarketcap (the link El Dude posted):



Are you serious? What in the fucking world is this? Metapets? Animaltycoon? Doge Run? Totally a Rug Pull?  What a shitcoin shithole coinmarketcap has become...

yea, but a simple solution: push that "highlights" blue bar to the left and it is gone.

[philipma1957]

I would be shocked if most WO people are not in the upper half of the tower.

Although, holding just 1 full coin is already considered generational wealth and owning it will be extremely rare in the future, but you want to hold more than just 1 because breaking up that 1 coin will be a waste, it's like a museum piece.

Can you hold atleast 3 - 5 - 10+ coins for 10 to 20 years?

I don't see any reason to leave WO, i started here and will continue be active until i die..i guess. ( If i haven't posted here for atleast 3 months ore so that means i'm dead )

Bitcoin will break so many records the whole road to mainstream will be glorious to experiencing together.

I think I will get over ten. Depends  would I hodl the ten depends.
But my time line is shorter than many people on the wo I am 64.

I plan to run the mine till I am 70 and then sell my share to my partners.

we are
64 ------ 70 and exit is my hope and plan
58 ------ 65 and exit is the owner of the ware house
42 ------ ? my primary partner I met in 2014
24 ------ ? son of the warehouse owner

So we should earn well for years to come and hodl some of it.

[lightfoot]

These dumb-ass 5% bitcoin sales are annoying: It's not worth cashing in coin to buy back lower as the ~21% Capital gains tax will wipe out any profit.

Oi.

IOW: Capital Gains Tax makes it so that selling to rebuy lower is a losing move unless the after-sale dip is more than the CGT rate. Not limited to bitcoin: it's the same with stonks or any other financial asset.

unless it is long term rate sale.

...and, first $80,800 in long term cap gains are FREE (if you are married).

Not if your income (the stuff you get for being a wage slave) exceeds 80k. That is like the crappiest phase out ever. Unless I am wrong about that.

[Biodom]

The year end seems to be quite annoying, isn't it?

2021 was not a great year by many occurrences:

1. A skimpy bull run despite all rah-rah-rah expectations. We basically did slightly better than double in four years; pretty good by stock market standards, quite low compared to what was expected.
2. Viral persistence. How many waves we gonna get?
3. Being totally tired of #2. Reinfection rises in the people I know.
4. The rise and rise of everyday rudeness...especially on our "autobahns".

Prediction:

Bitcoin is incompatible with your typical political/investor operator psyche.
As such, the path forward would be slower and more tenuous than I expected.
It is entirely possible that 'they' would try to control the narrative by pushing some solutions that are more easily controlled: it could be E-coin or S-coin or some other shitcoin (heck, it might even be xerp, once it settles), but it ain't going to be bitcoin as they cannot direct it to their benefit.

TL;DR Slow bitcoin in 2022, politicos heavily promoting a few shitcoins (probably the most corrupt ones). Fiat stock market slightly down, maybe 5-7%.

[Biodom]

These dumb-ass 5% bitcoin sales are annoying: It's not worth cashing in coin to buy back lower as the ~21% Capital gains tax will wipe out any profit.

Oi.

IOW: Capital Gains Tax makes it so that selling to rebuy lower is a losing move unless the after-sale dip is more than the CGT rate. Not limited to bitcoin: it's the same with stonks or any other financial asset.

unless it is long term rate sale.

...and, first $80,800 in long term cap gains are FREE (if you are married).

Not if your income (the stuff you get for being a wage slave) exceeds 80k. That is like the crappiest phase out ever. Unless I am wrong about that.

afaiu, LONG term cap gains are different from income, but who knows.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp

Your ordinary income is taxed first, at its higher relative tax rates, and long-term capital gains and dividends are taxed second, at their lower rates.
So, long-term capital gains can't push your ordinary income into a higher tax bracket, but they may push your capital gains rate into a higher tax bracket.

https://erwealth.com/podcastblog/will-capital-gains-push-me-into-a-higher-tax-bracket

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

 Otherwise, $100K-150K for no blow-off top, simply reaching the logarithmic growth upper band and reversing.

I don't really have any major problem with this kind of scenario ending up playing out because it is still very profitable for me, personally.

One of my problems with the considering of such scenario to be reasonable remains that it just does not seem to reflect bitcoin's history very well, and it does not even seem to fit very well into a kind of "smoothing of tops" kind of depiction of bitcoin as a maturing asset class... and maybe that ends up being part of the rub (the crux of it) that I have with these kinds of smoothing top depictions of bitcoin in that there seems to be some kind of built presumption that bitcoin is sufficiently maturing as an asset class in order to really meaningfully be considered in that kind of a way.. which I really have some difficulties accepting that as a very likely scenario (even though I understand and appreciate that any kind of scenario could end up playing out, even a kind of $100k to $150k whimpy top scenario as does seem to be amongst your favorites, even if you are reluctant to admit it... hahahahahahaha       ).

I'm not suggesting that closing the year below $48K would leave to sub $40K, but would likely be a catalyst for some sub $46K prices to return, like $44K and $42K I imagine.

Surely we have each expressed our views on this.  I don't have anything further that I want to add regarding my earlier assertions.  Maybe for you it matters more in terms of your attempts to trade when you see what you believe to be some kind of convincing tradable pattern, and for me, it's a big so what, in terms of my not changing my orders either way...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Well not much happening on the BTC front. Just the same like a whore's panties up and down of late.


Saw Spiderman - No Way Home this evening.

What an overhyped load of tosh. Bit sad the general audience buys into this dumb garbage at this rate. Honestly they could make a one minute trailer with Robert Downey Jr. coming onto the screen and saying "I'm Iron Man", do a loud fart and still get cheered on.

This dumb movie was entertaining in places to be fair but the heroes constantly behave like complete selfish and utter morons.

Could have been much better I reckon.
Couple of nice surprises but just a dumb self inflicted carry on mostly just doesn't seem to raise the stakes much.
Never understood why they make Zendaya look so plain in these films. She seems quite pretty elsewhere.

6/10

Awful having to wear masks again in the cinema in the UK.
Won't bother again until this rule disappears unless there is something unmissable on which doesn't happen often I guess.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Awful having to wear masks again in the cinema in the UK.
Won't bother again until this rule disappears unless there is something unmissable on which doesn't happen often I guess.

Dude, buy a sunflower lanyard. You can be exempt from wearing a mask. I’ve been doing it for ages.
They’re less thsn £5.
No mask & nobody will ask you why


https://hiddendisabilitiesstore.com/shop/sunflower-lanyards.html


My disability is that I am a degenerate OG bitcoiner.

[BitcoinBunny]

Awful having to wear masks again in the cinema in the UK.
Won't bother again until this rule disappears unless there is something unmissable on which doesn't happen often I guess.

Dude, buy a sunflower lanyard. You can be exempt from wearing a mask. I’ve been doing it for ages.
They’re less thsn £5.
No mask & nobody will ask you why


https://hiddendisabilitiesstore.com/shop/sunflower-lanyards.html


My disability is that I am a degenerate OG bitcoiner.

Yeah it's a good point.
I don't think any of that mask shit makes any difference when you are in a cinema for hours anyway.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Yeah it's a good point.
I don't think any of that mask shit makes any difference when you are in a cinema for hours anyway.

We’re 2 years in now & it still spreads like wild fire. It’s clear masks do very little by now.
People will be on their 4th jabs soon but we still have restrictions. I’ve been done with this bull shit for a long time now.

[Hueristic]

[Syke]

Congrats for ending 2021 with the highest number of cases of covid-19. Your anti-vax anti-mask is working well!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Turducken.

[Arriemoller]

Congrats for ending 2021 with the highest number of cases of covid-19. Your anti-vax anti-mask is working well!

Well, it doesn't really matter if you get it, if it doesn't make you seriously ill.



Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.