Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

i just figure im fucked no matter what. so meh.

Oh of course: No one gets out of this game alive :-) But as a thought experiment I'm finding it to be fun to figure out how you can have maximum in-your-pocket funds while paying a minimum in taxes legally and completely by all the rules.

Maybe this is how rich people think....

of course many rich peopel think this way.

[1713862344]

1713862344

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tertius993]

So there is a ton of hand wringing out there on the various talk holes.

We were all wrong about out predictions!!!   OMG!



All of this angst is driven by the fact that We are talking about predictions tied to an arbitrary date.  This always irritates me a little.  The human tendency to group things into calendar years.

I DO think that Bitcoin might be following one sort of prediction that I have frequently cited (not my fav, but that is entirely driven bny what is in my bags).  The idea of diminishing returns over time...  dragonvslinux  mentions it just a few posts up.  The idea that as the asset matures the returns will diminish.  Also DavetheWave's position.  And that theory will have won him a substantial bet with PlanB in a few days.

I personally STILL think we have at least a minor "S Curve" event in our future.  There just has to be a moment when the masses begin to realize that Bitcoin is not going away and people start piling in.  It's like the see-saw tipping point.  a 'gradually, then suddenly' event.

And if I have EVER suggested this would happen before the end of a calendar year I want to be BAT SLAPPED.

I even think the time will eventually come where the "Bitcoin 4 year cycle" falls away.  I have wondered if we would see it this cycle, begin to change.  And I think the jury i s still out on that one.  And there are several ways that could begin to happen... including a big double (or triple?)  set of peaks during THIS cycle, or perhaps a bull run INTO the next halving.

I just think tying things to year end is silly.  Well, except for the fact that people DO THAT which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.  As well as various fiscal year motivators, like selling or buying before the end of a tax year.  

Anyway.  I remain bullish.  And I think there is a significant chance we have not seen the end of Bitcoin's rise.  After all it does not care one whit what year it is.  It only cares that the next block is a ridiculously small random number.

Bit in bold - I definitely agree with this.  I have posted about it a number of times, e.g. here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0 - if you consider that the vast majority of he total supply has already been mined (90% right now) then the quantity of bitcoin that will be influenced by each halving becomes vanishingly small: this epoch started with 88% already mined and only ~6% will be mined in the epoch, i.e. before the next halving in c. 2024.  The next halving the numbers are 94% and 3%.

I've been playing around with a good way to visualise this, and this is the best I have come up with so far, each band shows the percentage of the total supply issued in each epoch, orange at the bottom is the 50% issued from Genesis to the first halving, green at the top is what will be issued in the next epoch, etc.. Everything below the blue band is already mined, and we are maybe a third into the blue band:



 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

Let's keep the CoVID shit-posts in other threads and off the WO please.
(edit: Bob's thread is apparently for hat-only, I am sure there are other threads on this forum where the merits can be debated properly)

To be fair, anyone wanting to post about COVID19 related matters in this thread, is welcome to be redirected to my holding thread in Off-Topic.

The "No Hat? Fuck Off" is one layer of protection to reduce noise.

As long as the post is not completely retarded, I'll consider it on its own merits, if made in good faith.

I want to help keep this thread clean. Recognize this requires a degree of flexibility on my part, with regard to moderating COVID19 material.

Memes and low-effort posts are deleted on-sight from non-hatters.

Bring the science, or fuck off.

[cAPSLOCK]

One little topical hopium salve for today?



A previous fractal on a larger scale?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phil_S]

Not everybody was too bullish.

Not our favorite characters:

The last day or so is just noise. The calamitous downtrend remains perfectly intact.

Agree the men of the wall will be crying by Christmas. Sub $10,000 inkoming!!!!!!!

[tertius993]

I had another go at visualising the emission schedule, 97% will be mined in the first 20 years, the remaining 3% will take over 100 years ...

[cAPSLOCK]

Not everybody was too bullish.

Not our favorite characters:

VERY true, and where would we be without them?

You know who I think mostly was too bullish?  I think it was mostly the class of ~2017.  And particularly the millennials and under.  I remember a podcast where Matt O'Dell was lambasting "Bitcoin TINA" for being too bearish while TINA was saying something like, I see us making 6 figures in early to mid 2022.  O'dell was still chanting things like "100k by conference day" and also embarrasingly drunk.

Bitcoinners who have been around the block a time or two realize that bitcoin never does what WE expect in the short term. LOL.  And someone like Tina might have gotten in around then too, but has seen enough markets to realize that things often take more time than we think...

I actually want to find that recording and isolate the bit where Tina still has a chance of being right.  

Nothin' against O'Dell.  He's a good guy, and I am impressed with his devotion to privacy.  Though I also think his ideas that regular bitcoinners will EVER be able to do the kinds of privacy preserving stuff he preaches even more sophomoric than "100k by conference day" even was.  That said, he is quietly being dragged (uncomfortably) into Monero along with the rest of the privacy focused maxis, which is delightful to see... (ok JJG go ahead)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

One little topical hopium salve for today?

Also from another macro-angle looks like a re-test of support. Price needs to reclaim $48K soon though. Closing back above the 200 Day MA @ $47,774 would be a good start.



Otherwise with price getting rejected by $48K as is currently the case it opens the door for $46K and lower. At least the end of the week is still to play for.
Am losing my mid-term bullish bias now that $49K support didn't hold and high volume selling has returned to the market though.
Long-term trend remains up but the short-term recovery was nothing more than a dead cat bounce for now.

[cAPSLOCK]

One little topical hopium salve for today?

Also from another macro-angle looks like a re-test of support. Price needs to reclaim $48K soon though. Closing back above the 200 Day MA @ $47,774 would be a good start.



Otherwise with price getting rejected by $48K as is currently the case it opens the door for $46K and lower. At least the end of the week is still to play for.
Am losing my mid-term bullish bias now that $49K support didn't hold and high volume selling has returned to the market though.
Long-term trend remains up but the short-term recovery was nothing more than a dead cat bounce for now.

As much as I prefer my bullishness (only for reasons of greed lol), I think your theory holds more water.  And the volume is just not coming yet.  We could certainly be on a dead cat, and it could be 2023 before we start to see it turn around.

I ihopnesatly think we are seeing the bitcoin market transform from the super swingy land of the first decade into something different.  And there are most likely some big swings left... but I really thing everyone expecting the last 3 cycles to somehow repeat to be in general error.  SO MUCH really is different this time.

I did find that interview.  I am not going to rewind to where O'dell make a complete fool of himself (Somewhere in this area I typed that much into the chart, but not sure when lol).  But Tina makes a really good case for what could really be happening this cycle.  And he looks pretty good in retrospect.

https://youtu.be/rU6A7ao0xqA?t=7988

[AlcoHoDL]

So there is a ton of hand wringing out there on the various talk holes.

We were all wrong about out predictions!!!   OMG!



All of this angst is driven by the fact that We are talking about predictions tied to an arbitrary date.  This always irritates me a little.  The human tendency to group things into calendar years.

I DO think that Bitcoin might be following one sort of prediction that I have frequently cited (not my fav, but that is entirely driven bny what is in my bags).  The idea of diminishing returns over time... dragonvslinux  mentions it just a few posts up.  The idea that as the asset matures the returns will diminish.  Also DavetheWave's position.  And that theory will have won him a substantial bet with PlanB in a few days.

I personally STILL think we have at least a minor "S Curve" event in our future.  There just has to be a moment when the masses begin to realize that Bitcoin is not going away and people start piling in.  It's like the see-saw tipping point.  a 'gradually, then suddenly' event.

And if I have EVER suggested this would happen before the end of a calendar year I want to be BAT SLAPPED.

I even think the time will eventually come where the "Bitcoin 4 year cycle" falls away.  I have wondered if we would see it this cycle, begin to change.  And I think the jury i s still out on that one.  And there are several ways that could begin to happen... including a big double (or triple?)  set of peaks during THIS cycle, or perhaps a bull run INTO the next halving.

I just think tying things to year end is silly.  Well, except for the fact that people DO THAT which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.  As well as various fiscal year motivators, like selling or buying before the end of a tax year.  

Anyway.  I remain bullish.  And I think there is a significant chance we have not seen the end of Bitcoin's rise.  After all it does not care one whit what year it is.  It only cares that the next block is a ridiculously small random number.

Bit in bold - I definitely agree with this.  I have posted about it a number of times, e.g. here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0 - if you consider that the vast majority of he total supply has already been mined (90% right now) then the quantity of bitcoin that will be influenced by each halving becomes vanishingly small: this epoch started with 88% already mined and only ~6% will be mined in the epoch, i.e. before the next halving in c. 2024.  The next halving the numbers are 94% and 3%.

I've been playing around with a good way to visualise this, and this is the best I have come up with so far, each band shows the percentage of the total supply issued in each epoch, orange at the bottom is the 50% issued from Genesis to the first halving, green at the top is what will be issued in the next epoch, etc.. Everything below the blue band is already mined, and we are maybe a third into the blue band:

While your Bitcoin Emission Schedule visualization is a great idea in principle, your execution can be misleading in terms of amount of coins added in each 4-year Halving period, by extending the corresponding regions past their respective Halving periods.

I have modified your visualization, by making the colored region areas proportional to the coins mined in the corresponding Halving periods, resulting in the visualization shown below. The "diminishing returns over time" concept is still there (obviously), but it is now more accurately depicted, and hence not as dramatic as yours.

[serveria.com]

Some HODLing motivation quotes from our old friend:



 

[tertius993]

So there is a ton of hand wringing out there on the various talk holes.

We were all wrong about out predictions!!!   OMG!



All of this angst is driven by the fact that We are talking about predictions tied to an arbitrary date.  This always irritates me a little.  The human tendency to group things into calendar years.

I DO think that Bitcoin might be following one sort of prediction that I have frequently cited (not my fav, but that is entirely driven bny what is in my bags).  The idea of diminishing returns over time... dragonvslinux  mentions it just a few posts up.  The idea that as the asset matures the returns will diminish.  Also DavetheWave's position.  And that theory will have won him a substantial bet with PlanB in a few days.

I personally STILL think we have at least a minor "S Curve" event in our future.  There just has to be a moment when the masses begin to realize that Bitcoin is not going away and people start piling in.  It's like the see-saw tipping point.  a 'gradually, then suddenly' event.

And if I have EVER suggested this would happen before the end of a calendar year I want to be BAT SLAPPED.

I even think the time will eventually come where the "Bitcoin 4 year cycle" falls away.  I have wondered if we would see it this cycle, begin to change.  And I think the jury i s still out on that one.  And there are several ways that could begin to happen... including a big double (or triple?)  set of peaks during THIS cycle, or perhaps a bull run INTO the next halving.

I just think tying things to year end is silly.  Well, except for the fact that people DO THAT which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.  As well as various fiscal year motivators, like selling or buying before the end of a tax year.  

Anyway.  I remain bullish.  And I think there is a significant chance we have not seen the end of Bitcoin's rise.  After all it does not care one whit what year it is.  It only cares that the next block is a ridiculously small random number.

Bit in bold - I definitely agree with this.  I have posted about it a number of times, e.g. here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0 - if you consider that the vast majority of he total supply has already been mined (90% right now) then the quantity of bitcoin that will be influenced by each halving becomes vanishingly small: this epoch started with 88% already mined and only ~6% will be mined in the epoch, i.e. before the next halving in c. 2024.  The next halving the numbers are 94% and 3%.

I've been playing around with a good way to visualise this, and this is the best I have come up with so far, each band shows the percentage of the total supply issued in each epoch, orange at the bottom is the 50% issued from Genesis to the first halving, green at the top is what will be issued in the next epoch, etc.. Everything below the blue band is already mined, and we are maybe a third into the blue band:

While your Bitcoin Emission Schedule visualization is a great idea in principle, your execution can be misleading in terms of amount of coins added in each 4-year Halving period, by extending the corresponding regions past their respective Halving periods.

I have modified your visualization, by making the colored region areas proportional to the coins mined in the corresponding Halving periods, resulting in the visualization shown below. The "diminishing returns over time" concept is still there (obviously), but it is now more accurately depicted, and hence not as dramatic as yours.

Yes,  see what you mean though the idea with the chart was to read it in vertical “slices” - at any date you could see what coins came from which epoch.

However I did another version posted above using a pie chart style that has the right proportions of yours and I hope captures the rapid slowing in production rate.

[OutOfMemory]

"Don't Look Up" - look it up on Netflix, best movie since Idiocracy IMO. Made well enough so that anyone can think "nah, I'm not that stupid, this is about all those other people". Bitcoin gets honorable mention too.

https://www.netflix.com/title/81252357

Watched it yesterday, i give it a 8/10 on the OOM movie score 

As for the BTC price action: Just sit tight and assess 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

I had another go at visualising the emission schedule, 97% will be mined in the first 20 years, the remaining 3% will take over 100 years ...

So basically this means that at some point the amount of coins mined and sold on exchanges won't be sufficient and the price will go up. Supply shock is real. And the best thing: the longer the price will stay down, the higher will be the price hodlers will be ready to part from their precious coins at. And the higher the price will climb. It's like those who were ready to sell some part of their stashes at $100k won't be willing to sell at the same price in 2023 for example. They will be expecting at least $200k.

So it's going to happen like: price goes up to $100k are we ready to sell? NOT! Price is heading higher. Willing to sell at $120? NADA! Going higher... the coins are just not available on exchanges... $150k? Still no! Moar UP. At $200k some retail investors and/or small to average mining operations may start to sell...  but not Saylor/Graycale kind of guys obviously. All of the above is SOMA.  

[Biodom]

"Don't Look Up" - look it up on Netflix, best movie since Idiocracy IMO. Made well enough so that anyone can think "nah, I'm not that stupid, this is about all those other people". Bitcoin gets honorable mention too.

https://www.netflix.com/title/81252357

Watched it yesterday, i give it a 8/10 on the OOM movie score  

As for the BTC price action: Just sit tight and assess  

I initially considered it as 8.5, but the credits scene kind of dump it to 8 for me as well
JL dropped 5-10 lb through the movie..so the movie story line (minor spoiler: her character was on a diet) imitated rl in this particular instance.
Timothy C. was cool, Jonah Hill-hilarious.