Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Blue King]

South African student purchasing goods with bitcoin 🇿🇦
Quick, easy, and instant. The future is bright!

Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1535803485366755330

[Biodom]

Yep, why the market is so bad all of a sudden?
Apart from some TA jerks (cough-Tom Crown-cough) with their ever decreasing price targets, I fail to see why all this 'panic'?
A rhetorical question.

[Hueristic]

Snowden is a Zcrap insider.

The “trusted setup” is gone in Halo2—a

Leave the shitcoin shilling to another thread.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

You can keep the btc private, You can mine to a virgin btc address via nicehash.

That is a proposal for obtaining BTC privately, not for keeping it private—much less using it privately.  It is only one way of obtaining BTC privately (experience talking here—not discussing publicly, for the obvious reason that it defeats the purpose of obtaining BTC privately).  And it is not even as private as you believe.

Do you know if Nicehash’s website has embedded trackers?  (Most websites do, nowadays.)  Does it use browser fingerprinting?  (Most websites do, nowadays.)  What information does Nicehash require on signup?  What network connection do you use to connect to them?  Have you audited their mining app (is it open source?) to see if it gathers any information about your system (so-called “telemetry”—very common nowadays)?  What network connection do you use for the mining app?  This list of questions could be continued...

I’d guess that P2Pool behind Tor is a better option.  Except that IIUC, latency is a miner’s enemy.  Tor has high latency.  Whoops.  It is probably doable, but I am not the one to ask.

How did you buy your mining hardware?  Anonymously?  Good luck with that.

But anyway, this is irrelevant:  You are trying to solve a less-difficult problem, obtaining BTC, while ignoring what happens after that.

And as long as you do not cash it in it is private.

What is “cashing it”?  Bitcoin is money:  Let’s talk first about using it.

You have an anonymous coin that you obtained “somehow” (via mining, or otherwise).  You go to Bob’s Widgets Dot Dom to buy some tech gadgets.  Bitcoin Bob is happy to accept your coin.  You pay—in a tx that sends you back a change coin.

Congratulations:  Your anonymous coin is now essentially doxed.  Chainalysis now sees the coin that went to Bob’s known wallet cluster—and their heuristics easily discerned which coin is your change.  Bob has your name and address, for shipping the widget—and unbeknownst to him, his third-party website analytics embed leaked a bunch of info about you to what are essentially commercial surveillance companies.

Now, you go to spend some of the change.  Alice is raising donations for a political protest.  Whatever controversial opinion you secretly have, Alice is 100% for it; and you want to support her efforts.  Some of the coin you received as change from your transaction with Bob—the coin which is no longer anonymous, you now send to Alice.  Whoops!

And then, you use the change you received from your tx with Alice to pay for a Copper Membership on the Bitcoin Forum.  Oh, did you want to speak here anonymously?

THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN.  This problem should not exist.  It does not need to exist.  And yet—it does exist.


^^^ Years of frustration and expense are talking here.  Using Bitcoin privately is costly and inconvenient.  It shouldn’t be.  Privacy should be the default, the easiest way to use it.

Okay So I buy this pc

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/hp-omen-30l-gaming-desktop-amd-ryzen-7-5800x-16gb-memory-nvidia-geforce-rtx-3060-ti-1tb-ssd-shadow-black/6477881.p?skuId=6477881

So I buy this and I mine at nicehash a shitcoin like eth and I get paid btc to a virgin address.

½ the privacy issue is solved.

No one can prove a pc is mining a shit coin like eth and converting it to btc on a site like nicehash.

Now I will not explain how to turn a virgin wallet into cash that is not traceable  as btc was not designed to cash out that way. Or. buy goods or services.

KYC is part of the program if you want btc.

[death_wish]

Yep, why the market is so bad all of a sudden?
Apart from some TA jerks (cough-Tom Crown-cough) with their ever decreasing price targets, I fail to see why all this 'panic'?
A rhetorical question.

Sunday dip usually starts later in the day.

What I am hoping not to see is the weird behaviour from early May.  Too soon to call it that, but...  C’mon, Bitcoin, please get back up.

* death_wish answers rhetorical questions when he’s worried about BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

* death_wish covers Buddy’s eyes.  (Don’t you dare look while Bitcoin is so sad.)

^^^ Years of frustration and expense are talking here.  Using Bitcoin privately is costly and inconvenient.  It shouldn’t be.  Privacy should be the default, the easiest way to use it.

[...]

KYC is part of the program if you want btc.

No, it’s not.

Proof by counterexample:  I have been doing Bitcoin for (undisclosed) years, and I have never done KYC for anything even remotely related to BTC.

KYC is an attack on BTC.

Snowden is a Zcrap insider.

The “trusted setup” is gone in Halo2—a

Leave the shitcoin shilling to another thread.

As I said in the portion you snipped, I’m talking about bringing zero knowledge proof privacy to Bitcoin.  One way or another.  It should have been done long ago.  Nice that an altcoin developed it, field-tested it, and released open-source libraries that can be used without the altcoin.

Now that the trusted setup is gone, I’d think you’d be the last person who would object.

[rat03gopoh]

C’mon, Bitcoin, please get back up.

Man, i don't want it to happen right away. My SL order was just filled, im lossing, damn.
Let it go first to the next support area, im waiting there.

[death_wish]

Let it go first to the next support area, im waiting there.

What do you suppose is the next support area?  (Asking for a friend.)


P.S. to,

FYI, I have been wanting ZK proofs in Bitcoin since I first heard of Zerocash in 2013–2014 (don’t remember exactly when).  I have patiently waited as the technology developed from research idea, to v1.0 implementation, to battle-tested maturity.  My dream for about the past nine years has been to see this in Bitcoin.  So much for “shitcoin shilling”.

No doubt, I am not alone in the desire to see Bitcoin get the very best privacy technologies.  @Snowden?

[Gachapin]

... you better sell the best performing asset of the last 10 years at a 60% discount now and buy some safe haven USD so that you can lose 10% of your savings each year...

...hurry up... not much Dollars left... one time offer !!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wilhelm]

C’mon, Bitcoin, please get back up.

Man, i don't want it to happen right away. My SL order was just filled, im lossing, damn.
Let it go first to the next support area, im waiting there.

Lol been there. Just buy and HODL my friend. Accept any minor loss you suffered on that SL. Don't wait...

[death_wish]

... you better sell the best performing asset of the last 10 years at a 60% discount now and buy some safe haven USD so that you can lose 10% of your savings each year...

...hurry up... not much Dollars left... one time offer !!

LOL.  The only way that we will risk running out of Dollars is if we burn them as fuel to generate electricity for Bitcoin miners.

Money printer, go brrr!  Restart QE Infinity!  Up the diff!  Bitcoin wants more energy!

(Folks shouldn’t laugh too much.  I recall having seen those historical photos of housewives in Weimar Republic Germany stuffing bundles of Marks into their stoves for cooking and wintertime home heating.  They could not afford coal, but they had bundles of Marks.  That’s in the middle of Europe, not what people stereotypically think of as a “third-world country” or whatnot.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Well prices are down, not surprising when following a Friday with such a large traditional market dump. But seriously, if you have an income just keep buying, you'll now get more BTC for your buck. Just keep it simple and DCA.

Prices will go up again, it is mathematically certain. Look at the ECB announcement last week, they said they were going to start raising rates, end QE, etc. but, very quickly after that, when the PIIGS credit spreads were blowing out, a second announcement needed to me made to clarify that the PIIGS will be taken care of. How will they be taken care of? QE of course, more bond buying.

So in other words QE can't be stopped, and soon enough every other nations will get to that point too. It's only a matter of time. the PIIGS and Japan are already there and they will not be alone for long.

Buy BTC, this could be your last chance to get it at a decent price.

[xhomerx10]

https://www.psypost.org/2022/06/attractiveness-is-associated-with-the-belief-that-economic-success-is-dependent-on-individual-effort-rather-than-external-circumstances-63312

Attractiveness is associated with the belief that economic success is dependent on individual effort, rather than external circumstances

Physical attractiveness is associated with many positive outcomes – greater happiness, higher wages, better jobs, and even higher cognitive outcomes. According to a recent study published in Economics and Human Biology, beauty is also associated with lower support for redistribution. Attractive individuals are more likely to attribute economic success to individual effort, as opposed to external circumstances.

Studies examining the association between looks and political preferences have found that attractive people are more supportive of right-wing parties. Researchers have interpreted this result by suggesting that by earning more money, attractive people become less favorable toward redistribution and more supportive of right-wing politics. In this work, Andrea Fazio adds to this finding by explicitly testing the relation between beauty and individual support for income redistribution...

 
What a load.  Everyone knows that economic success is dependent on bitcoin ownership.

[AlcoHoDL]

Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations.

Trying to catch up and not really up to posting but this is a great chart visualization you setup so had to comment.

What is the absolute minimum time frame for length to be in profit.

Obviously its in between the 2 and 4 year but i'd like to know the exact timeframe as it would be nice to see if it holds as we progress.

Thanks Hueristic, and to everyone who found my visualization helpful (links to post and video, for those who missed it). I'm also VERY busy IRL right now, so I've had to switch to "lurker" mode. I'm trying to keep up with WO, and very quickly skimming through the posts.

On to your question, which is very interesting, and is one that also came into my mind while writing the visualization code and observing the results. You're right, the profit threshold is between 2 and 4 years. This is obvious, by comparing the plots for Case 4 and Case 5. Answering the question programmatically is not very trivial, so I found the answer graphically, by observing adjacent plots (one day apart), around the time point the spiral untangles. It turns out that the profit threshold is at 1096 days. This is around 156 weeks, or exactly 3 years. The funny (and interesting) thing is that this threshold is EXACTLY 3 years to the day (1096 / 365.25 = 3.0007)! The price point at that time is just under $20k (around $19,700).

Edit: After posting this, I did some verification of the price data, just to make sure I haven't made a mistake. Everything checked out, but what I also realized was that the time the spiral untangles is on 17 December 2017—the exact time point of the 2017 ATH (for the older cycle). Hence the price of just under $20k! For the newer (outer) cycle, the time point is 1096 days (3 years) later, which is on 17 December 2020.

Here's the relevant polar plot (indicating the point the spiral untangles):



When I have some free time, I'll try to think of other ways to visualize price data, so that we can get a better understanding of price dynamics. For the time being, I'm in "HoDL-&-wait" mode. The recent price drop (and even today's drop to nearly $27k) does not worry me. I'm convinced that it's just a matter of time for the price to reach 6 digits and beyond. Just need to wait for a little while longer... We're all used to that. This is fine.

[death_wish]

Filed under “trust the science”:

https://www.psypost.org/2022/06/attractiveness-is-associated-with-the-belief-that-economic-success-is-dependent-on-individual-effort-rather-than-external-circumstances-63312

Attractiveness is associated with the belief that economic success is dependent on individual effort, rather than external circumstances

...beauty is also associated with lower support for redistribution. Attractive individuals are more likely to attribute economic success to individual effort, as opposed to external circumstances.

Studies examining the association between looks and political preferences have found that attractive people are more supportive of right-wing parties.

Thermonuclear detonation across the entire blogosphere in 3... 2... 1...


After reading the article twice, I decided that Science is the grandmaster of all trolls.  Political comedians will have a jolly good time with this one; the jokes practically write themselves.  I have not laughed so hard in a very long time—much needed now.  (Cheer up, Bitcoin!)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Show proof that you represent Bitcoin.org, or fork off and die in a fire.

(Protip to newbies:  Check trust page.)