Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wilhelm]

Another company going down

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/17/babel-finance-suspends-withdrawals-citing-unusual-liquidity-pressures/

Yeah think that happend a day or 2 ago. They're all coming out of the woodwork now.

I think Bitcoin is teaching them that there is nobody to bail you out if you go down.
In the normal banking world a liquidity of 10% is enough. In Bitcoin country you need 100% backing.

[somac.]

Buyers nowhere to be seen it seems. 18k - 15k on the menu.

Not that I would ever accuse you of having a crystal ball, but... how fast do you think it can go to, say, $17,100?

Asking you because you seem to have canny instincts; and you are pro-Bitcoin, but realistic—not a Hopium addict.  I am perfectly well aware that there is no way you can predict it... just looking to compare hunches.


For future historical readers:  We dropped in one shot from $20k to $19k, in such a neat $1000 increment; and now, we are suddenly struggling to hold $19k.

Asking for a friend who seems to have very limited time to come up with some dollars...

I wish I could give you an answer.

All I can say is that I think we will only go up again when either the Fed pivots or the price gets lower enough that us hodlers have enough buying power using the incomes that we gerate from our labor. The halfing in 2 years time will help with the latter.

We either need cheap debt, or enough cash.

[Gachapin]

Another company going down

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/17/babel-finance-suspends-withdrawals-citing-unusual-liquidity-pressures/

Yeah think that happend a day or 2 ago. They're all coming out of the woodwork now.

I think Bitcoin is teaching them that there is nobody to bail you out if you go down.
In the normal banking world a liquidity of 10% is enough. In Bitcoin country you need 100% backing.

It's a good thing that these firms are getting washed out.

[somac.]

Another company going down

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/17/babel-finance-suspends-withdrawals-citing-unusual-liquidity-pressures/

Yeah think that happend a day or 2 ago. They're all coming out of the woodwork now.

I think Bitcoin is teaching them that there is nobody to bail you out if you go down.
In the normal banking world a liquidity of 10% is enough. In Bitcoin country you need 100% backing.

Wish they knew that from the start.

[AlcoHoDL]

Tough times for a buyer N   O   T

The moment you are ready to click BUY, price drops by $1k...and keeps dropping...

Please, Bitcoin, keep a little steady so that we can BTFD!

Hey, I love it when the market moves in a direction favourable to me by the time I click “buy”.  This is a buyer’s market.

If you zoom in close enough, you'll see that we are in full agreement.

[Wilhelm]

Another company going down

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/17/babel-finance-suspends-withdrawals-citing-unusual-liquidity-pressures/

Yeah think that happend a day or 2 ago. They're all coming out of the woodwork now.

I think Bitcoin is teaching them that there is nobody to bail you out if you go down.
In the normal banking world a liquidity of 10% is enough. In Bitcoin country you need 100% backing.

It's a good thing that these firms are getting washed out.

Exactly. Every bear market Bitcoin is fixing maturity problems.

Hacked exchanges
Battle for dominance
Coin security
FUD resistance
Country legislations
Adoption by the corporate world

And now it's mostly stablecoins and solvency

[savetherainforest]

Explanation

COMMON BUDDY ! YOU HAD TO DO IT 11$ SHORTER !! FFS !    

[Gachapin]

while the market goes down, quite a lot of shitcoins hold up against BTC, even fall less.

If I remember right, we haven't had that in previous cycles.
Someone really wants Bitcoin to go down..

(I know the argument that BTC is more liquid than shitcoins so better for selling large chunks, but at least shitcoins should fall at the same rate)

[somac.]

Looking at USDT and USDC is interesting. USDT is dropping, USDC is increasing. Perhaps this is one large seller dropping the market, and he is exiting through Tether.

[UnDerDoG81]

Consider selling 20-25% of my Bitcoin. Anyone else? I have this great reset theory and now they introduced the digital USD. Its going into that direction. I start to be worried BTC will end up like Luna, once the panic kicks in? Dumped to 18.6K and nobody is buying WTF.

I am in since 2013 and ever since holded BTC. Never took profits. Never sold. I would go nuts leaving this game without a cent in my pockets after 9 years

All these people writing only an idiot would sell at these levels. I remember people were saying the same at 69K while talking about 300K.

Edit: I have gone through 2 bear markets and the covid dump. But never had I felt that dark powers are involved. Unless now. Thats why my worries.

[savetherainforest]

while the market goes down, quite a lot of shitcoins hold up against BTC, even fall less.

If I remember right, we haven't had that in previous cycles.
Someone really wants Bitcoin to go down..

(I know the argument that BTC is more liquid than shitcoins so better for selling large chunks, but at least shitcoins should fall at the same rate)

Too bad it can't.  1 BTCiTcoin is equal to 1 BTCiTcoin.    

[death_wish]

Buyers nowhere to be seen it seems. 18k - 15k on the menu.

Not that I would ever accuse you of having a crystal ball, but... how fast do you think it can go to, say, $17,100?

Asking you because you seem to have canny instincts; and you are pro-Bitcoin, but realistic—not a Hopium addict.  I am perfectly well aware that there is no way you can predict it... just looking to compare hunches.


For future historical readers:  We dropped in one shot from $20k to $19k, in such a neat $1000 increment; and now, we are suddenly struggling to hold $19k.

Asking for a friend who seems to have very limited time to come up with some dollars...

I wish I could give you an answer.

All I can say is that I think we will only go up again when either the Fed pivots or the price gets lower enough that us hodlers have enough buying power using the incomes that we gerate from our labor. The halfing in 2 years time will help with the latter.

We either need cheap debt, or enough cash.

~900 new BTC per day.  I have been thinking about that since January.

Another of my hypotheses:  BTC has been losing “Honey Badger” resilience as more traders figure PnL in USD, fewer in BTC.  Especially the new wave of sophisticated traders backed by massive capital (institutional quants, etc.).

PnL in USD means that successful traders suck dollar capital out of the market, leaving bitcoins on the table.

PnL in BTC means that successful traders suck bitcoins out of the market, leaving dollars on the table.

It is another aspect of the marketplace zero-sum game.

A difference in currency preference for accounting purposes can make all the difference in the world.  Hodler buying power in dollars, which you mention, cannot keep up when serious hodlers are increasingly outgunned and outcapitalized by Wall Street types.  (Forget idiot moonboys.)

That leaves hodlers to find new ways of approaching this.

Way too late, I figured out some things.  Not only for personal profit, but specifically to suck as much BTC supply out of the market as I can.  I have no hope of becoming a Real Quant(TM) anytime soon, but arbitrage meshes with my way of thinking.  In the shitcoin ecosystem that must not be named, I can do arbs with negligible risk (atomic transactions: either all legs succeed, or tx fails at cost of a tx fee which is dirt-cheap in this ecosystem).  Most people doing that are sucking out dollars, leaving the bitcoins...  (I can mention that in public, because how to do it optimally is the trick; obviously, any code that I develop will be my own trade secret for operating in a hypercompetitive environment, where the best bot wins.)  Those with good access to KYC exchanges can do intra-exchange triangular or inter-exchange arbs; but there, there is always a significant risk of failing to close a leg due to slippage.

Maths experts here may want to think about the “Real Quant(TM)” thing...  In a private collaboration, I could assist on the high-performance code while someone with stronger maths works on the algorithms, the probability models, etc.

Obviously, I have thus far hurt more than I have helped:  My erstwhile bitcoins are now sloshing around the market.

[savetherainforest]

Looking at USDT and USDC is interesting. USDT is dropping, USDC is increasing. Perhaps this is one large seller dropping the market, and he is exiting through Tether.

But if USDT goes down, then that means that BTC price goes up against it.    

[Gachapin]

Consider selling 20-25% of my Bitcoin. Anyone else? I have this great reset theory and now they introduced the digital USD. Its going into that direction. I start to be worried BTC will end up like Luna, once the panic kicks in? Dumped to 18.6K and nobody is buying WTF.

I am in since 2013 and ever since holded BTC. Never took profits. Never sold. I would go nuts leaving this game without a cent in my pockets after 9 years

All these people writing only an idiot would sell at these levels. I remember people were saying the same at 69K while talking about 300K.

Is this a joke?

I panic sold in my 1st cycle and learned it the hard way back then...  But you are in your 3rd, so I'd say what the fuck are you talking about?

But maybe everyone has to have the experience to sell near the bottom (73% down). So if you feel you must sell here, do it. But make sure to buy back in on the way up.. which is the hard part

[JayJuanGee]

So, are you a betting man, goldkingcoiner?

goldkingcoiner is a betting man..

#confirmed.


 

The vast majority of my corn is mined, not purchased, if that helps you understand why this whole wall observation thing is just an amusement for me

Or to be more accurate, the vast majority of corns I had were dumped and wasted in the careless 2015s, a small fraction that I still have makes me a hodler, and now that mining isn't what it used to be I turned to buying yet smaller fractions using other sources of income because why not.

I do frequently argue that the concept of deciding how much to allocate to bitcoin versus fiat remain similar no matter your sources of income, but surely I understand that anyone who earns income in bitcoin is going to be faced with on going decisions regarding how much to liquidate at various points in time, and surely in recent times, we had so many folks discussing ways to employ leverage (debt) including miners, so there are likely quite a few miners who are now going to be under liquidation pressures because they had ended up employing a lot of leverage/debt that becomes way more difficult to service when mining income dries up and even the assets being held as collateral for debt (bitcoin and mining equipment in this case) ends up going way down in value.

My typing reminded me of your earlier point about the entrances of various financialization tools (players from wall street), which seems to be inevitable with any kind of invention (technology - or what do we want to call it?) that comes onto the scene and into society.. and bitcoin itself is even claiming to be a kind of money, storage of value and all that built into one.. so there's almost no way to escape financialization attempts that might start out way less than perfect, perhaps manipulation attempts and all over the place in terms of whether "fair" market value is being assisted to be found or desires to drive bitcoin in to the ground with an ability to short it more effectively... the school of hard knocks of "price discovery" no?

By the way, it seems to me that I only name-call my fellow forum members as being too whimpy when they provide me with some level of detail in which I can hook onto it.. hahahaha looking at you Biodom.. (I cannot help myself sometimes)

You, me and Biodom have a similar forum age, so in that regard, sometimes there are some abilities to frame these kinds of whimpy or not matters in terms of something like a quasi-middle of the road $50 per week DCA strategy, which should have gotten such person somewhere in the ballpark of 22.6 BTC, but surely we all make mistakes.. and sometimes we end up having to start over.. like my own ability to ONLY get above 0.63 BTC.. but still I am not talking about me.. Instead, I have been attempting to talk about ways to attempt to measure whether even some relatively modest BTC accumulation strategies may well have ended up bringing some comfortable results.. even when mistakes happen to have been made along the way..

Well, that makes me very not whimpy, if I understand your criteria correctly LOL

From my perspective  - potentially flawed - overall miners do not tend to be very whimpy unless they are completely selling all of their coins on a regular basis.. and maybe even failing to study into bitcoin.. .. and since I was a bit presumptive in not even recalling that you had a mining background, that means several of my premises for my framing of "what is whimpy" may well have been off in the first place..

For the time being, it probably would be just fair enough to go by your self-assessment representations regarding your not being whimpy, whether true or not.. but at least, I did kind of provide some kind of reference point.. so we would not end up being too abstract.. because in the abstract, most folks would proclaim themselves to "not be whimpy."  for whatever that is worth.  hahahaha

Historically, it was pretty damned common for me to suggest that guys and gal just get started with DCA investing into BTC with $10 per week, and since March 2020, I have been more inclined to suggest $100 per week.. even though I understand that some folks are in economies in which they are really struggling even to come up with $10 per week extra cashflow... but we try to do what we can, and generally speaking quite a few normies with cashflow in western societies should be able to reasonably come up with $100 per week or more to invest into bitcoin.

If someone's poor economy allows them only $10, then even if the absolute result is smaller than it would be in a better economy, it's still likely to be a relatively good result for their poor (presumably lower cost of living) economy. However it has to be a truly disposable can-afford-to-lose no-risk-of-mindrusting amount of money. If someone puts $11 in but then have to dump their coins on a dip because they overextended themselves... it's no good. And if $0 is all they can afford, it should be $0.
 

not unlike points that I frequently make in terms of both not over doing it and having cashflow projections (and likely some kind of emergency fund) ; and also the ability for very poor normies to invest very very small amounts could also improve economic situations of very poor normie peeps so long as they do not over do it.

Other than that, DCA is what 99% (being generous here assuming that at least 1% know how markets work) of people should do instead of chasing dildos. Unfortunately - not specific to Bitcoin but also quite typical to other savings types - many people fuck it up and end up poor when they could have easily afforded comfortable retirement.

I think almost every single one of us has a kind of tendency to want to overdo it (and want to gamble and wants to expedite our process of becoming more richie faster).. and nearly every single one of us has to fight back those kinds of urges.. because there are also folks attempting to tempt us into spinning the wheel.  

For sure, none of us should necessarily act as too much of a prude on these kinds of balances, because each person does need to find his/her balance and to feel some freedom in rolling the dice if they want to roll the dice...  point.. and frequently I believe that there still can be ways that regular folks can still gamble with part of their funds in order to scratch aspects of their itch and to have a little fun.. maybe less than 10% of their value or some prudent amount.. should be fine..  but again and again and again.. the inclination to gamble tempts many folks to go too far without having adequate principle preservations (building) mechanisms in place.. and sometimes we do hear about those guys who had nothing and went all in.. and maybe some of that is spin. . but some of the real success rags to riches do involve outrageous kinds of doubling, tripling down.

[Franctoshi]

Tough times for a buyer N   O   T

The moment you are ready to click BUY, price drops by $1k...and keeps dropping...

Please, Bitcoin, keep a little steady so that we can BTFD!

Hey, I love it when the market moves in a direction favourable to me by the time I click “buy”.  This is a buyer’s market.

If you zoom in close enough, you'll see that we are in full agreement.

This might be the greatest shakeout out in Bitcoin's history, Why?

1.A lot of people thought it was impossible to get back here, therefore will trigger more panic selling.
2. Institutional interest has increased since last all time (ATH) which I think some of them aren't happy they missed out the chance and they are trying to get most weak hands out to be the King in this Market as in other market.
3. What goes up must surly come down ,if you zoom out from monthly perspective,  I do think the market is very much interested in the monthly TF order block right now @$12k. We have few thousand dollars down to the price.

[death_wish]

while the market goes down, quite a lot of shitcoins hold up against BTC, even fall less.

If I remember right, we haven't had that in previous cycles.
Someone really wants Bitcoin to go down..

(I know the argument that BTC is more liquid than shitcoins so better for selling large chunks, but at least shitcoins should fall at the same rate)

I very much noticed the same thing.  (I do altcoins, so I have a bunch of them on my desktop ticker.)

[Wexlike]

holy shit, we're dead

[savetherainforest]

holy shit, we're dead

Welcome to the party!   .. Pretzels and Eggnog are on the table in the kitchen.      

[Gachapin]

holy shit, we're dead

Welcome to the party!   .. Pretzels and Eggnog are on the table in the kitchen.      

no blow and hookers?