Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this.

Plenty.  *shrug*  So what.  Every crash drives away some people who were in earlier.  The ones who wind up posting wildly distorted sob stories titled “crypto ruined my life!!!!” on social media.  The next wave of bitter ex-coiner nocoiners.

Reasonable Bitcoiners won’t flip out like that—although the adjustment may be difficult, given the factors I have previously mentioned.

And most people have not yet touched Bitcoin.  For them, there is no “again”.  Why would or wouldn’t they touch Bitcoin in the future?

By analogy, it is a truism (and true) that women are generally attracted to strength—repulsed by weakness.  The strong man knows his strength.  I speak not of swaggering empty conceits, but rather of self-confidence.  Self-confidence is contagious—as are depressiveness, indecision, and panic.  ...Well, so as for women—so as for everybody.  The strong man who attracts women is also a leader of men; everybody responds to strength.

In my sojourns in altcoinland, I have oftentimes observed that altcoiners are either impressed by Bitcoin, or jealous of Bitcoin.  Bitcoin, as in “Bitcoin dominance”.  Hmmm.

somac., your sharp instincts and some of your gut predictions saved me from a fourth liquidation, and were one of the decisive factors for me to get out of debt now, at all costs.  I thank you for that.  I would be wrecked beyond wreckage by now, if I had not been paying extra attention to your posts.

Your personal text is so awesome.  An inspiration.

Now, I need to ask you:  Do you believe in your heart of hearts that you hodl something desirable?

If yes... who cares about all the people who gave in 2015, “Bitcoin is dead.”  Or now, maybe worse—eh.  I just want to think about how to get out ahead of whatever plans there perhaps may be to crack Bitcoin economically—perhaps as practical support for a new narrative equalizing it with POS shitcoins, then deprecating it.  Refocus on what makes Bitcoin better.  Think of a brighter future.

Meanwhile, if it bottoms at $17k or $15k or $OH DEAR HEAVENS I CAN’T BELIEVE IT, I’ll just be laughing and munching popcorn.  As I did in previous crashes—I got my diamond hands back, now that I have exorcised the mind-destroying, asset-destroying, soul-sickening influence of that damn margin account.  So, this crash is worse.  Whatever.  1 BTC = 1 BTC.

(Further reply to you intended, but I am exhausted as hell after what I did earlier...  The last time that margin account will ever drain my personal energy together with my money.  I may come off as unintentionally brusque; please do not misinterpret this post as being flip towards you.)

I am in utter disbelief we just shouldn't be here.  

But we are.

By analogy, on a personal level, I am in utter disbelief that I lost most of my bitcoins.  When I look at my wallet, I know that I “just shouldn’t be here”.  It should never have happened.  But it is the reality.  Living in shock, numbness, and denial after I was liquidated down to 0.5 BTC was really what got me crushed down to 0.05 BTC.  By failing to acknowledge the reality and react constructively, by default I took the path from bad to worse.

So, anyway, here we are.  Where to go from here?

I do believe, that’s why I’ve never sold. I guess I just don’t want people to lose from this or avoid it in the future. The assholes (Bitfinex long guy) driving the price down right now win a little when that happens.

I’ll refocus with time. Always do, this doesn’t mess with my personal life that much either so I’m not in a bad place, really.

Anyway, I’m really glad that weight has been lifted from your mind. What I’m feeling is nothing compared to what you’ve gone through. I guess we’ll all be stronger after this is over.

[xhomerx10]

I mindrusted the crash, right about the time when BTC hit its local bottom around $17,600.  I capitulated.

What I mean is that I mindrusted some scraps of precious altcoins that I had lovingly preserved to help regenerate my BTC in better market conditions.

(STFU.  I will slap anyone who dares to speak ill of my dearly departed altcoins, who nobly sacrificed themselves on the battlefield in the ranking order set by Gresham’s Law.)

I panicked, because BTC was in freefall—and if it kept falling so fast, my liquidation losses could go suddenly from ~99% to ~99.9%.

So...  I guess I panic-sold.  Sold assets low—dumped into a crash with what were, in themselves, horrifically foolish trades.  To save BTC.

mindrust panicked to save his worthless fiat shitcoins.  I panicked to save Bitcoin.  And I jest at myself.  The “selling into the crash” part was bad luck executing a plan I had decided earlier, after calculating a dozen ways to find the least-lossy, least-risky, least grossly undesirable means to free my remaining bitcoins.  But I am making a point.

The good news:  For the first time in over five months, I am debt-free!  And the sad remainder of my BTC is freed from the margin account.  For the first time in over five months, I am at zero risk of liquidation.

Now, I can go back to my old self.

I DGAF about more crashing.

If BTC goes to $10k, then I will ride it to $10k.  If it goes to $1, then I will ride it to $1.  If it goes to zero, then I will ride it to zero.

Yes, I have very little BTC left.  But it is a large proportion of my dollhouse-sized remaining finances.  For he who has little, a pauper’s scraps are precious as a king’s fortune.  My little itty-bitty bitcoins mean the world to me.

And I am back to my old self!  Let blood drench the streets!  I will laugh and sneer at the weak hands and the panic-sellers.  Hahahah.  LOL.

Let the market burn, as I frolic in the sunshine!

I am gravely worried about Bitcoin, because I care about Bitcoin.  This is an attack.  But that is an idealistic worry—cause for worse pessimism over the state of the world—not a fear for my personal finances.  For my personal finances, my only Bitcoin-related concern—my grievous concern is that I do not have enough BTC.

1 BTC = 1 BTC.

 
 Congratulations.  There's still time to stack.

 https://www.jeopardy.com/be-on-j

 

[PokestarFan]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this.

Plenty.  *shrug*  So what.  Every crash drives away some people who were in earlier.  The ones who wind up posting wildly distorted sob stories titled “crypto ruined my life!!!!” on social media.  The next wave of bitter ex-coiner nocoiners.

Reasonable Bitcoiners won’t flip out like that—although the adjustment may be difficult, given the factors I have previously mentioned.

And most people have not yet touched Bitcoin.  For them, there is no “again”.  Why would or wouldn’t they touch Bitcoin in the future?

By analogy, it is a truism (and true) that women are generally attracted to strength—repulsed by weakness.  The strong man knows his strength.  I speak not of swaggering empty conceits, but rather of self-confidence.  Self-confidence is contagious—as are depressiveness, indecision, and panic.  ...Well, so as for women—so as for everybody.  The strong man who attracts women is also a leader of men; everybody responds to strength.

In my sojourns in altcoinland, I have oftentimes observed that altcoiners are either impressed by Bitcoin, or jealous of Bitcoin.  Bitcoin, as in “Bitcoin dominance”.  Hmmm.

somac., your sharp instincts and some of your gut predictions saved me from a fourth liquidation, and were one of the decisive factors for me to get out of debt now, at all costs.  I thank you for that.  I would be wrecked beyond wreckage by now, if I had not been paying extra attention to your posts.

Your personal text is so awesome.  An inspiration.

Now, I need to ask you:  Do you believe in your heart of hearts that you hodl something desirable?

If yes... who cares about all the people who gave in 2015, “Bitcoin is dead.”  Or now, maybe worse—eh.  I just want to think about how to get out ahead of whatever plans there perhaps may be to crack Bitcoin economically—perhaps as practical support for a new narrative equalizing it with POS shitcoins, then deprecating it.  Refocus on what makes Bitcoin better.  Think of a brighter future.

Meanwhile, if it bottoms at $17k or $15k or $OH DEAR HEAVENS I CAN’T BELIEVE IT, I’ll just be laughing and munching popcorn.  As I did in previous crashes—I got my diamond hands back, now that I have exorcised the mind-destroying, asset-destroying, soul-sickening influence of that damn margin account.  So, this crash is worse.  Whatever.  1 BTC = 1 BTC.

(Further reply to you intended, but I am exhausted as hell after what I did earlier...  The last time that margin account will ever drain my personal energy together with my money.  I may come off as unintentionally brusque; please do not misinterpret this post as being flip towards you.)

I am in utter disbelief we just shouldn't be here.  

But we are.

By analogy, on a personal level, I am in utter disbelief that I lost most of my bitcoins.  When I look at my wallet, I know that I “just shouldn’t be here”.  It should never have happened.  But it is the reality.  Living in shock, numbness, and denial after I was liquidated down to 0.5 BTC was really what got me crushed down to 0.05 BTC.  By failing to acknowledge the reality and react constructively, by default I took the path from bad to worse.

So, anyway, here we are.  Where to go from here?

I mean some people are stupid enough to put the entirety of their retirement fund into crypto. Lesson #1 of investing is have a diverse portfolio.

[somac.]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this.

Plenty.  *shrug*  So what.  Every crash drives away some people who were in earlier.  The ones who wind up posting wildly distorted sob stories titled “crypto ruined my life!!!!” on social media.  The next wave of bitter ex-coiner nocoiners.

Reasonable Bitcoiners won’t flip out like that—although the adjustment may be difficult, given the factors I have previously mentioned.

And most people have not yet touched Bitcoin.  For them, there is no “again”.  Why would or wouldn’t they touch Bitcoin in the future?

By analogy, it is a truism (and true) that women are generally attracted to strength—repulsed by weakness.  The strong man knows his strength.  I speak not of swaggering empty conceits, but rather of self-confidence.  Self-confidence is contagious—as are depressiveness, indecision, and panic.  ...Well, so as for women—so as for everybody.  The strong man who attracts women is also a leader of men; everybody responds to strength.

In my sojourns in altcoinland, I have oftentimes observed that altcoiners are either impressed by Bitcoin, or jealous of Bitcoin.  Bitcoin, as in “Bitcoin dominance”.  Hmmm.

somac., your sharp instincts and some of your gut predictions saved me from a fourth liquidation, and were one of the decisive factors for me to get out of debt now, at all costs.  I thank you for that.  I would be wrecked beyond wreckage by now, if I had not been paying extra attention to your posts.

Your personal text is so awesome.  An inspiration.

Now, I need to ask you:  Do you believe in your heart of hearts that you hodl something desirable?

If yes... who cares about all the people who gave in 2015, “Bitcoin is dead.”  Or now, maybe worse—eh.  I just want to think about how to get out ahead of whatever plans there perhaps may be to crack Bitcoin economically—perhaps as practical support for a new narrative equalizing it with POS shitcoins, then deprecating it.  Refocus on what makes Bitcoin better.  Think of a brighter future.

Meanwhile, if it bottoms at $17k or $15k or $OH DEAR HEAVENS I CAN’T BELIEVE IT, I’ll just be laughing and munching popcorn.  As I did in previous crashes—I got my diamond hands back, now that I have exorcised the mind-destroying, asset-destroying, soul-sickening influence of that damn margin account.  So, this crash is worse.  Whatever.  1 BTC = 1 BTC.

(Further reply to you intended, but I am exhausted as hell after what I did earlier...  The last time that margin account will ever drain my personal energy together with my money.  I may come off as unintentionally brusque; please do not misinterpret this post as being flip towards you.)

I am in utter disbelief we just shouldn't be here.  

But we are.

By analogy, on a personal level, I am in utter disbelief that I lost most of my bitcoins.  When I look at my wallet, I know that I “just shouldn’t be here”.  It should never have happened.  But it is the reality.  Living in shock, numbness, and denial after I was liquidated down to 0.5 BTC was really what got me crushed down to 0.05 BTC.  By failing to acknowledge the reality and react constructively, by default I took the path from bad to worse.

So, anyway, here we are.  Where to go from here?

I mean some people are stupid enough to put the entirety of their retirement fund into crypto. Lesson #1 of investing is have a diverse portfolio.

Don't be too hard on them for doing that. For many this is the only way they can ever hope to own a home, their labor is no longer enough.

Thank you governments and CBs for putting people in this situation. You fucks.

[Arriemoller]

Off topic (on topic is depressing)  Pro tip for today...
When ordering at a fast food joint and the server has a name tag like Chianti, Janelle, Phelipi, or Erez, (or some such nonsense),
has permanent, illegible bumper stickers plastered all over both arms,
is sporting giant hula hoop earrings, and you are hard pressed to tell what biological parts they are packing.....
....check your order before leaving.

mega lols

I might be painting the kettle black here.
After all, back in the day, I pranced around on a stage in retarded looking trendy eighties fashion wear, chain dangle earing, eye liner make up,
and a jar of Dippity Do gel encrusted in my hair. (back when I had more hair on my dome than my ring piece).
Yeah... back then in my naïve youthfulness, I was fruitlessly looking for validation too...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1U1Ue_5kq8

So did I and I have to say, I still think the eighties, especially the first part, was the best dressed decade ever. I still like that fashion, I even have some of it still in my closet, the trousers go about halfway around my waist now.
I used to dress something like the singer in this band https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9bEncnsHaI&ab_channel=h9ooo
Now I wear jeans and a T-shirt like some slob.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Explanation

Kind of wish chartbuddy would piss off for a while

[Richy_T]

I'm the founder of Bitcoinica....

Security

We don't operate a Bitcoin wallet. All our funds are stored in Mt. Gox ...

Oh man...that's rich  

Mt Gox. Almost sounds like "Fort Knox". Except it stands for Magic The Gathering Online eXchange.

[jojo69]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdvTkddp1F0

[Arriemoller]

Panic bought quite a bit of 17,900

But shit..

I’ve put many thousands in since like the low 50s lol

On the subject of bottoms, any more gf pictures?

[CoinCube]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

I hope you are right. I have not sold any BTC during this run up or decline but I did sell a bunch a long time ago at 4k to start a small business. Business worked out fine and creates a nice independent income stream for me but I sure wish I started it with debt and not BTC.

I would love for a long multi year period with BTC at 10k so I could slowly buy back the BTC I sold. I don't invest in altcoins but Bitcoin was about 85% of my net worth at its 65k peak. That percentage is obviously a lot less now of course but other then the my horrible sale timing at 4k years ago I have pretty much ignored this recent market action. I guess it depends on ones timeline and confidence. I am confident in bitcoins long term prospects. The short term market changes are thus only distracting noise.

One thing that helps me keep a clear head is to assign a purpose to the BTC I own instead of looking at it as a total sum. The BTC I have right now is all earmarked for stuff either as future gifts for my children (I have a few kids), for my wife as a life insurance in case something happens to me (saves money on life insurance), or earmarked for grandchildren who don't exist yet using a guestimate on how many of them may eventually exist someday.  

I actually don't have any earmarked for my savings or retirement yet. Sold those back at 4k for the business. I need to eventually fix that and buy some BTC for me. I was not planning on doing that this year as was going to expand the business but if BTC drops to 10k I will put the expansion plans on hold and start buying BTC.
 
I would guess that we are going lower from here. However, if we do the storm shall eventually pass. The draining of fiat liquidity by the central banks cannot be sustained forever.

[somac.]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

I hope you are right. I have not sold any BTC during this run up or decline but I did sell a bunch a long time ago at 4k to start a small business. Business worked out fine and creates a nice independent income stream for me but I sure wish I started it with debt and not BTC.

I would love for a long multi year period with BTC at 10k so I could slowly buy back the BTC I sold. I don't invest in altcoins but Bitcoin was about 85% of my net worth at its 65k peak. That percentage is obviously a lot less now of course but other then the my horrible sale timing at 4k years ago I have pretty much ignored this recent market action. I guess it depends on ones timeline and confidence. I am confident in bitcoins long term prospects. The short term market changes are thus only distracting noise.

One thing that helps me keep a clear head is to assign a purpose to the BTC I own instead of looking at it as a total sum. The BTC I have right now is all earmarked for stuff either as future gifts for my children (I have a few kids), for my wife as a life insurance in case something happens to me (saves money on life insurance), or earmarked for grandchildren who don't exist yet using a guestimate on how many of them may eventually exist someday.  

I actually don't have any earmarked for my savings or retirement yet. Sold those back at 4k for the business. I need to eventually fix that and buy some BTC for me. I was not planning on doing that this year as was going to expand the business but if BTC drops to 10k I will put the expansion plans on hold and start buying BTC.
 
I would guess that we are going lower from here. However, if we do the storm shall eventually pass. The draining of fiat liquidity by the central banks cannot be sustained forever.

It's people like you that will support the price and create a bottom. Much respect for the way you have handled things.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.

Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far.
At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies.
To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended.
Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did.
Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium.

It's those longs on Bitfinex that makes me think something is up, the only reason for so many futures longs is so you can take profit without driving the spot market up. Maybe its just the liquidations, but how many coins do these pricks have. must of been a million dumped by now.

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500.

I wasn't monitoring the price as much back then, would only check couple times a week at most, so I only saw that after it had happened. Yes it was worse in percentages, but there were far less people involved back then, where as now a lot more normies got in. I don't know if it will scar as bad honestly, but it's something I'm thinking about in terms of when it comes to recovery vs say the stock market recovery.

some say that stock market "ought" to drop 70% as well, not sure if it will happen or not, it's certainly possible, especially in inflation-adjusted terms.

The chances of a %70 stock crash in the next 2 weeks are smaller then I can see.

of course not...who was talking about 2 weeks?
maybe 1-2 years.

[somac.]

Please tell me we are not about to dump again. Let us have some rest.

[sirazimuth]

...
On the subject of bottoms,...?

Did you get Zhou Tonged?
You got it in the bum bum...
Oh what a bum bum...

[Wilhelm]

I'm the founder of Bitcoinica....

Security

We don't operate a Bitcoin wallet. All our funds are stored in Mt. Gox ...

Oh man...that's rich  

Mt Gox. Almost sounds like "Fort Knox". Except it stands for Magic The Gathering Online eXchange.

EmptyGOX

[CoinCube]

It's people like you that will support the price and create a bottom. Much respect for the way you have handled things.

Thanks it has worked for me.

I think it also helps to look at history. Historically alternatives to the official government approved money have done poorly in times of severe economic distress as debts are denominated in government money and they must be serviced. Silver for example declined by over 60% in the great depression.
 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4352389-silver-prices-during-great-depression

Silver bounced back rapidly after it crashed climbed until the mid 30s when the president made illegal to own silver bullion and via executive command with executive Order 6814.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6814

History rhymes so I expect bitcoin to do very poorly at least initially in a depression which we may be entering into very soon. Bitcoin is also volatile by nature as it is new and its declines will be compounded buy greed and leverage and the many scams in the altcoin space that will fall apart in a prolonged decline.

Longer term I would not be at all surprised if many years down the road when fiat truly fails and some centralized gov coin version 2 or 3 is rolled out as a reset there will be some similar executive order outlawing private possession of BTC so it can be transferred to the government to be exchanged for gov coins.

If I needed fiat in the next year I would sell BTC now even though it is a terrible price. However, long term I think BTC has a very promising if rocky road ahead. I don't need fiat and hope to buy more BTC so bring on the clearance prices.

[Arriemoller]

It's people like you that will support the price and create a bottom. Much respect for the way you have handled things.

Thanks it has worked for me.

I think it also helps to look at history. Historically alternatives to the official government approved money have done poorly in times of severe economic distress as debts are denominated in government money and they must be serviced. Silver for example declined by over 60% in the great depression.
 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4352389-silver-prices-during-great-depression

Silver bounced back rapidly after it crashed climbed until the mid 30s when the president made illegal to own silver bullion and via executive command with executive Order 6814.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6814

History rhymes so I expect bitcoin to do very poorly at least initially in a depression which we may be entering into very soon. Bitcoin is also volatile by nature as it is new and its declines will be compounded buy greed and leverage and the many scams in the altcoin space that will fall apart in a prolonged decline.

Longer term I would not be at all surprised if many years down the road when fiat truly fails and some centralized gov coin version 2 or 3 is rolled out as a reset there will be some similar executive order outlawing private possession of BTC so it can be transferred to the government to be exchanged for gov coins.

If I needed fiat in the next year I would sell BTC now even though it is a terrible price. However, long term I think BTC has a very promising if rocky road ahead. I don't need fiat and hope to buy more BTC so bring on the clearance prices.

Well said.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation